The Way-Too-Early 2017 Free Agency Special – Part 1
By Dayton Brown
This disappointing Blazers season could come to an unexpected end quickly, so let’s look at possible pieces for the upcoming years.
The trade deadline came, went, and excited the basketball world. Demarcus Cousins was told he wasn’t going to be dealt, then was dealt days later. Lou Williams went from the Lakers to the Rockets as Houston gears up for a title run. And, of course, the Blazers started everything out with a Mason Plumlee-for-Jusuf Nurkić trade a week and a half ago. That trade for Nurkić won’t make the Blazers automatic championship contenders, but it does make the future a bit brighter.
This season currently is an almost guaranteed lottery pick or a first-round-bounce. Portland sits 9 games below .500 and fighting for the final playoff spot with mediocre teams. It’s been fun, let’s get that straight. The spirit of Rip City has never faltered and has certainly thrived through these difficult times. There have been great wins and amazing plays. But the reality is this: playoff or not, this season will end in disappointment. Is change needed, then? I believe so, but it most likely won’t happen this year. Therefore, we must peer into the future and take a look at this summer’s free agent class.
Relying on free agents may break the bank for the Blazers
Free agency for Portland means multiple issues. The biggest of them being lack of money available to sign great or even really good players. Currently, the Blazers have the second highest payroll in the league, only trailing the defending-champion Cavaliers. This off season, if every contract on the team remains, Portland will be $36.865 million over the salary cap and $16.865 million over luxury tax line. In other words, unless Portland trades away Evan Turner, Allen Crabbe, Ed Davis and/or Meyers Leonard, big-name free agent deals will not be possible.
The Big Guns
The acquisition of Nukić, for now, solves the issue Portland had at the 5-spot. A glaring need at the power forward position (especially defensively) and the need for a true stretch strong forward sets up Portland’s 2017 free agent needs. The top power forward free agent available is Blake Griffin. He’s a long shot for Portland to sign, as he’s expected to accept a contract offering anywhere from $23M-$25M per year or more. That says a lot about his ability: he has been injury prone, but will still command a max contract from any and all teams. This, of course, is only if he were to opt out of his contract with the Clippers. He could pick up his player option and stay long-term, but there’s a chance he leaves and tests the waters, which should salivate the glands of ex-Clipper GM Neil Olshey.
More from Rip City Project
- Blazers News: Portland signs FIBA WC standout center
- Blazers News: Portland re-signing failed lottery pick
- 8 Do-overs the Portland Trail Blazers Wish They Had During Last Decade
- Portland Trail Blazers NBA 2K24 team, player ratings
- Woj: Blazers, Lillard ‘fully prepared’ for star to be with team in training camp
Also with a player option, 4-time All-Star Paul Millsap could hit the market this summer. The versatile, athletic and underrated power forward from Atlanta would also demand a max deal from teams, even with his age (32). The Blazers were attached to trade rumors involving Millsap earlier this year, which obviously never materialized. Millsap can bully down low with Nurkić or stretch the floor and create opportunities for himself and his teammates. In my opinion, he is the man Portland should heavily go after if he decides to opt out. The price will be high, but pieces could be moved to help bring him to Rip City.
Rounding out the big guns are two players who could impact the team right away: Serge Ibaka and Nerlens Noel. Ibaka would be an unrestricted free agent, meaning he’s fair game and any team could sign him. Noel will be a restricted free agents, meaning Dallas (the team he was just traded to) could match any contract offer from another team. Ibaka has been traded twice in the past 8 months (from Oklahoma City to Orlando, then from Orlando to Toronto.) He was also linked to a possible trade to Portland, and his defensive prowess and veteran skills would help a young Portland roster step up to the next level.
Must Read: The Starting 5 We Want To See
However, Noel would be a much better fit for the Blazers. Even though he will be tougher to sign, he is young, athletic, defensive-minded and will fit into Terry Stotts’ system. Stotts is a former assistant for Rick Carlisle in Dallas, so he brings a lot of Dallas’ mentality and game plan to the floor. It looks as if Noel could work in Carlisle’s system, meaning his game could translate very well in Portland. Noel (rumored to be traded to the Blazers) is a 6′ 11″, 230-pound center/power forward hybrid. He has the potential to become Millsap, but with better defense. That’s scary good.
Whether it be Griffin, Millsap, Ibaka or Noel, these guys are going to be tough to sign. Influencing them to come to a Portland team who hasn’t had too much recent success (2015-16 season excluded) will be a difficult pitch for Olshey to make. It’s going to be tough to clear cap space to sign even one of them to a max or near-max contract. That’s why these are the big guns: the dream scenarios. Part 2 of this 3-part special will delve into much easier options for the Blazers. These options, however, won’t be nearly as fantastic as the players listed here.
Who knows though: maybe Portland can land another star to go alongside Dame and CJ. We’ll just have to wait.