Trail Blazers guide to Playoff opponents – What happens tonight
By David MacKay
The Northwest Division Champions and consequently fourth-seeded Portland Trail Blazers can no longer face the Los Angeles Clippers in the first round of the 2015 NBA Playoffs. By defeating the Phoenix Suns in their final game of the season on Tuesday, the Clippers secured third seed or higher.
It works this way because the Clippers are one win ahead of the San Antonio Spurs and the Houston Rockets, who both have one scheduled game remaining. The best either can do is tie, but only one can benefit from being the Southwest Division leader (tiebreaker #1). Since the Clippers split their regular season head-to-heads with both teams 2-2 (tiebreaker #2) and are not in the same division to compare division records (tiebreaker #3), any potential tie is broken by conference won-lost percentage (tiebreaker #4). In this regard, the Clippers (37-15) have an insurmountable lead on the Spurs and Rockets (32-19 apiece).
For more on NBA Playoff tiebreakers, click here. For more on how they specifically apply to the budding situation in the Western Conference click here.
Current Western Conference Standings
So the Trail Blazers’ potential first round opponent has been narrowed to three teams: The Spurs, the Rockets, and the Grizzlies. Portland will match up with whoever finishes with the fifth seed. That will be decided tonight as the Spurs face the New Orleans Pelicans, the Rockets face the Utah Jazz, and the Grizzlies face the Indiana Pacers. Here is a simple and accurate guide to what will happen based on the outcome of tonight’s games, accompanied by explanation.
Combinations where Rockets earn fifth seed
- If the Spurs, Rockets and Grizzlies all win, the Spurs overtake the Clippers (tiebreaker #1). However; nothing shifts between the teams in question and the Rockets remain the fifth seed. The Spurs beat the Rockets in a tiebreaker because they won the season series 3-1 (tiebreaker #2).
- If the Spurs and Rockets win, but the Grizzlies lose, the Spurs overtake the Clippers (tiebreaker #1). However; nothing shifts between the teams in question and the Rockets remain the fifth seed. The Spurs beat the Rockets in a tiebreaker because they won the season series 3-1 (tiebreaker #2).
- If the Spurs win, but the Rockets and Grizzlies lose, the Spurs overtake the Clippers (tiebreaker #1). However; nothing shifts between the teams in question and the Rockets remain the fifth seed. No further tiebreakers are necessary.
- If the Spurs, Rockets, and Grizzlies all lose, nothing shifts between the teams in question and the Rockets remain the fifth seed. The Spurs beat the Rockets in a tiebreaker because they won the season series 3-1 (tiebreaker #2).
Combinations where Grizzlies earn fifth seed
- If the Spurs and Grizzlies win, but the Rockets lose, the Spurs overtake the Clippers (tiebreaker #1), and the Grizzlies overtake the Rockets to become the fifth seed. The Grizzlies beat the Rockets in a tiebreaker because they have a better division record (tiebreaker #3). Tiebreaker #2 is inapplicable because the Grizzlies and Rockets split the season series 2-2.
- If the Grizzlies and Rockets win, but the Spurs lose, the Rockets overtake the both the Clippers (tiebreaker #1) and Spurs, and the Grizzlies overtake the Spurs to become fifth seed. The Grizzlies beat the Spurs in a tiebreaker because they have a better division record (tiebreaker #3). Tiebreaker #2 is inapplicable because the Grizzlies and Spurs split the season series 2-2.
- If the Grizzlies win, but the Spurs and Rockets lose, the Grizzlies overtake the Rockets for fifth seed. The Spurs beat the Grizzlies in a tiebreaker because they have the best winning percentage in games among the tied teams (tiebreaker b. #1). The Grizzlies beat the Rockets in a tiebreaker because they have a better division record (tiebreaker #3). Tiebreaker #2 is inapplicable because the Grizzlies and Rockets split the season series 2-2.
Combinations where Spurs earn fifth seed
- If the Rockets win, but the Spurs and Grizzlies lose, the Rockets overtake the Clippers (tiebreaker #1) and Spurs. No further tiebreakers are required and the Spurs become the fifth seed.