Mailbag: Trail Blazers trade rumors & upcoming free agency
By David MacKay
If you would like to see your questions addressed in next week’s edition of Mailbag Monday, email them to ripcityproject@fansided.com. I am always happy to hear from you. For more information, check out the introductory article.
"What is up with the Wilson Chandler trade rumors I have been seeing floating around?Travis V."
They all stem from this tweet by Grantland’s Zach Lowe:
@johnschuhmann @teamziller Denver is just waiting for POR to toss in a 1st for Chandler.
— Zach Lowe (@ZachLowe_NBA) January 9, 2015
The thing about sub-140 character conversations held between basketball folks in a public forum is that the more scrutiny they are under, the more the message can be misconstrued. Is it possible that the Trail Blazers are pursuing Chandler? Sure. In fact, it would be smart for them to do so. Lowe, being a smart man, was likely speculating that if the two teams were to make a deal, Denver would hold out for a first round pick, given Portland’s current assets.
This is not to say that the two teams haven’t talked. They may very well have; I don’t know. There are certainly signs that seem to substantiate the rumor. Chandler was held out of the Nuggets’ game with a knee strain the night the story broke, just as Allen Crabbe was held out of Portland’s game the next day with the same injury. Both listings were vague and without specific events tied to them, which may be coincidence or fabrication while strings are pulled behind the curtain.
If (and this is a big ‘if’) the rumor is true and we see some movement in the next few days, the trade would probably involve Victor Claver instead of Crabbe for salary matching purposes. Here is what it might look like:
The Trail Blazers could give Claver the freedom he’s been wanting while simultaneously clearing a roster spot for someone like Jermaine O’Neal. The Nuggets would receive semi-reasonable compensation in Dorell Wright, but more importantly two expiring contracts and a first round pick to aid in their rebuild this summer. Not bad on paper, but teams do not always value their players exactly as we expect.
I tend to think that the Trail Blazers will stay put. Their success is predicated on chemistry and it is difficult to argue with a 30-8 record. On the other hand, most teams look for upgrades where they can, so take my words with a grain of salt and keep your ear to the ground. Just in case.
"With so many free agents this year, who do you think the Blazers can actually keep?Tori L."
Trail Blazers that are officially set to be free agents in 2015 include LaMarcus Aldridge, Wesley Matthews, Robin Lopez, Thomas Robinson, Wright, and Joel Freeland. Portland’s top priorities are, and always have been, those first three. I am confident that they can retain Aldridge, but I have a gut feeling it will be either/or with Matthews and Lopez. I will get to the others shortly.
If another team decides to offer Matthews star money for a starring role, the Trail Blazers might not match. Consider that this will be the biggest contract of his NBA career and will span multiple years (unless he holds out for that TV deal money, which wouldn’t help the Trail Blazers’ situation either). The Trail Blazers have to think about their future. Damian Lillard will not be on his rookie contract much longer and they will need to allocate their resources accordingly when it ends. The better Matthews plays this season, the more likely it will be his last in Portland.
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Lopez is a little bit different. He will get paid all the same, but is unlikely to be the subject of extravagant outside interest. Whether or not the Trail Blazers can keep him depends on what happens with Matthews and if they decide to make a bid on someone themselves (Marc Gasol). Although it would be nice for Matthews to take a pay cut to help keep the gang together, it is not his responsibility to do so.
As for Robinson, Wright, and Freeland, the only one I consider likely to return is the British bulldog. The Trail Blazers did not pick up Robinson’s option last fall, indicating that he was probably more expensive than their future plans allowed. Wright is a decent value still but he plays sparingly to say the least, and the Trail Blazers would not be involved in the previously addressed trade rumor if Wright was everything they had dreamed of.
Though the Trail Blazers are on the cusp of having to rework most of the roster, it is still far too early to say anything for sure. We might look back on this moment six months from now and wonder what we were so worried about in the first place.