Mailbag: Damian Lillard, defense, and depth
By David MacKay
‘Mailbag Monday’ is a new segment on Rip City Project. If you would like to see your questions addressed in next week’s edition, email ripcityproject@fansided.com. I am happy to hear from you. For more information, check out the introductory article.
"Damian Lillard’s poor start seems like something that shouldn’t happen to a “future superstar.” What’s going on?-Adriana F."
There are a number of things that could be going on with Lillard, but my pet theory involves a combination of opponent adjustments and a simple down period. His rapid ascension has put a target on his back, making him a defensive focal point for opposing teams. The looks he is getting are not so clean these days, so his shot selection has suffered, which has alternately resulted in either poor shooting or deferring to teammates to carry the scoring burden (see Wesley Matthews). You may notice that Lillard is shooting significantly fewer shots than he is used to, while simultaneously taking hits in field goal percentage and three-point percentage.
This will smooth out as Lillard, too, makes adjustments. I think the biggest positive is that this low point for Lillard is still worth more than 17 points per game. If he hits a three here or gets to the line a time or two there, he will be about where he was last season. His inefficiency is mildly concerning, but he will grow in addressing it. I don’t think this drought will be long lasting enough to impede his path to super stardom. He is under a lot of scrutiny for a player entering his third NBA season.
"Is the Blazers D for real, or is it too early to tell?-Michael S."
I am inclined to think it is the real deal, though I try to be cautious of concrete claims over a seven game stretch. This Trail Blazers team has always been solid at closing out on shooters around the perimeter, but has struggled to keep opponents from converting in the paint. Robin Lopez went a long way toward fixing that problem last year, but one man can only do so much or play so long. I believe the addition of Chris Kaman in the offseason has taken the rim protection endeavor even further.
The Trail Blazers are presently allowing just 94.6 points per game, which is the third best mark in the NBA (as opposed to the 103.7 they allowed in 2013-14, which ranked all the way down at 24th). They are also allowing just 40.0 points in the paint per game (ranked 15th) instead of the 45.9 (ranked 28th) they allowed last season. Kaman is a big part of this. Though not previously known for rim protection, his new role as a bench player allows him to stay fresh for both ends of the floor.
Within five feet of the hoop, Kaman has kept opponent field goal percentage to 48.8 percent. This is better than Roy Hibbert (50.0), Marc Gasol (50.3), Tim Duncan (51.6), Joakim Noah (51.9), Andrew Bogut (52.3), Robin Lopez (52.4), Dwight Howard (53.1), Anthony Davis (56.5), and a slew of other rim protectors that will remain nameless so this response doesn’t spill over into a less alliterative ‘Mailbag Tuesday’. Is this sustainable? Actually, it might be, considering that he is primarily defending other—less seasoned—reserves.
There are still a few holes in the Trail Blazers’ defense, particularly among the guards (Matthews notwithstanding), but opponents are having to work harder than ever for high percentage shots. Of course, not all of the credit goes to Kaman for this, but he was the most recent piece added to a puzzle that was already on its way to being solved. We’ll have to wait and see if the picture is complete or if there are still some pesky blue sky pieces missing in action.
"What’s up with CJ/Thrill/T-Rob/Freeland? Sometimes they play a lot, sometimes they play a little. Does Stotts trust these guys yet or what? I haven’t seen him settle on any specific groove.-Josh S."
With the Trail Blazers’ level of depth this year, a lot of the guys in the second unit are likely to see sporadic usage. At this point, it looks like C.J. McCollum and Thomas Robinson will be involved on a nightly basis, but the degree is situational. The involvement of Will Barton and Joel Freeland, on the other hand, will probably be determined by point differentials, foul trouble, etc. Terry Stotts’ glaring division of trust between starters and bench players has dissolved into tiers this season, with regular responsibility given to those who are apt to handle it.
As the season wears on, players will fill more definite roles. The Trail Blazers’ youth movement has heretofore been a mixed bag of potential and uncertainty. Once Stotts knows which players excel at which tasks, he will carve out time for each of them accordingly. This does not guarantee regular minutes for everyone. The Trail Blazers are trying to run a 9-10 man rotation on a team that now runs deeper than 9-10 talented players. Stotts will settle on a rotation, but will probably focus on the marquee guys in closer contests.