Rip City Project
Fansided

C.J. McCollum & Will Barton – Debunking misperceptions

By David MacKay

facebooktwitterreddit

Damian Lillard sat out of Sunday’s preseason game against the Los Angeles Clippers in order to nurse a strained ankle. In his stead, C.J. McCollum drew the start at point guard. Not Steve Blake. Not Will Barton. This came as a bit of a surprise since Head Coach Terry Stotts ran with Blake in the first game Lillard sat out, and Barton had been thoroughly outplaying McCollum in preseason up to that point. It turned out to be a good move. McCollum went off for 19 points with six assists, making 5-8 three-point attempts.

However; this is not to say that Stotts ignored his other guards by any stretch. Barton started the second half alongside Wesley Matthews, Nicolas Batum, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Robin Lopez—just as McCollum did at tipoff. Barton only played a minute less than McCollum, and Blake three minutes less than Barton. It is clear that Stotts is still determining who will be included in rotation when the regular season starts. As difficult as it is to imagine any of them as the odd man out, chances are one will have to take a backseat when the lineup is more solidified.

More from Blazers News

As a veteran free agent signee, Blake is probably a given to play, so I am going to focus on McCollum and Barton today. Both can play point guard and both can play shooting guard, but the biggest window of opportunity for either of them is coming off the bench behind Matthews. They are battling for that shooting guard spot and appear to be neck-and-neck.

This is somewhat intriguing when you consider the way in which each entered the league. We’re going to change gears for a bit now, if you will indulge me.

Barton was drafted as the 40th overall pick in 2012, while McCollum was taken with the 10th overall pick the following year. One would think that they would be leagues apart, but they certainly do not appear to be. Without playing favorites, let’s take a look at why that is.

The 2012 NBA draft class was a pretty strong one. Several players that were drafted within the top-10 have already made a mark on the league in some way or another. Anthony Davis and Lillard are both All-Stars, Bradley Beal and Dion Waiters are involved in the ‘best backcourt’ discussion, Terrence Ross had that ridiculous 51 point game, and Andre Drummond led the league in offensive rebounding last year. Yet, the talent didn’t stop there. Plenty of others drafted later on have made an impact. John Henson, Terrence Jones, Jared Sullinger, Tony Wroten, and Draymond Green come to mind.

Point being, the 2012 draft class was solid. Now, do you recall where Barton was projected to be selected that year? Most sites had him going between 25 and 29. It was actually quite exciting when Barton fell into the second round and Portland’s lap. The Trail Blazers got late-first round value from a mid-second round pick. I think sometimes people have a difficult time seeing past a player’s draft order; especially early in that player’s career. Barton is not better than he should be, his number just didn’t reflect his value.

This same principle has worked against McCollum in the context of pressure, not so much because he was selected late or early, but because the 2013 draft class was astonishingly weak (though it has had less time to prove otherwise). McCollum carries the burden of being a top-10 pick and is expected to deliver within the confines of the fallacy that this means the same thing year-to-year. To illustrate the imbalanced talent turnover, I have crafted a graph displaying the average Player Efficiency Rating of the top-10 rookies in each draft class since 1990.

I would go further back, but your screen is only so wide and I am only so neurotic. See that plummet the year McCollum was drafted? That is absolutely massive. Perhaps maybe one of the players in the 2013 top-10 would even crest 2012’s top-5 selections without the benefit of retrospect.

Consider, then, how far apart McCollum and Barton would be numerically if they were drafted in the same year. This is, of course, hypothetical, but I think it is important to think about. If you transplanted McCollum into 2012, even supposing four years of college ball still, would he be a top-10 pick? Heck, top-15? Probably not. The projections would have looked something like a generous 17 for McCollum and 27 for Barton.

That is part of why players in McCollum’s position stay that fourth year. Trey Burke made that same delay after his freshman year and was taken just ahead of him. The rookie contract scale means the top picks gets paid and 2013 was looking ugly early.

So now let’s reconsider the talent gap these numbers supposedly represent. Being (albeit conjured) 10 picks apart in the projections looks a lot better than being selected 30 picks apart in reality. And at that mid to late point in the first round, the difference between picks is less stark than it is at the very top. McCollum and Barton wear different labels, but they are cut from the same cloth.

Sep 29, 2014; Portland, OR, USA; Portland Trail Blazers guard Will Barton (5) poses during media day at the Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Craig Mitchelldyer-USA TODAY Sports

Returning to the reality of things, an important decision lies ahead for the Trail Blazers. Both players are 23 years old and playing at roughly the same level despite the discrepancy in preconceived notions. Barton has an extra year and a half of NBA experience on McCollum that has allowed him to make up any separation rather quickly. The Trail Blazers know that, but the anticipated ceiling for each player is murkier than it appeared on the surface years ago. This is where things get tricky.

As much as NBA teams like finding diamonds in the rough, they hesitate to let them shine over sunk costs when the two are juxtaposed. It reflects poorly on the management as a net waste of money. I should be careful to point out that neither is either at this juncture, but haunting draft numbers try to suggest otherwise.

Keep in mind that the Trail Blazers have not yet picked up the third year option on McCollum’s contract. That decision will come close to the end of the month. It could be that the Trail Blazers are waiting to see if Barton performs better in preseason so they can focus their attention on the cheapest player. This would effectively negate the clash, but it is more likely musing on my part.

The bottom line is that McCollum and Barton are on pretty equal ground despite being drafted on a slope. Making lineup decisions is not as simple as allotting minutes to the most expensive resource. Stotts has the unenviable job of gauging who is ready for what, and when. In this circumstance, it may be best for the Trail Blazers to look solely at present skills and not past expectancies. In that case, there is no clear leader overall.

Follow @DavidMacKayNBAFollow RipCityProject