Teams should be locking down prospect rankings and finalizing their boards as this year’s NBA draft is only days away. General Manger Joe Cronin’s plan for the Blazers 2023 NBA Draft Big Board is assuredly no different.
The biggest lingering question facing Cronin right now is whether Portland should use its third overall selection as part of a trade package to acquire another superstar to help Damian Lillard push for a title as a Blazer, or simply choose a high-level prospect to add to the the team’s current core.
Option C, trading Dame and completely resetting Portland’s roster, seems to be a hard pass.
The Blazers have three picks in this year’s draft – Nos. 3, 23, and 43. As was the case with Big Boards 1.0, 2.0, and 3.0, this isn’t a best-player-available list. It’s a list based on what the Blazers need – the top piece of the big board Cronin should have in the war room on draft night.
Portland’s most significant needs this offseason include size, defense, rebounding, backcourt depth, and wing depth. These final pre-draft rankings reflect those needs.
Here are the prospects, ranked 10 to 1, who should top the Blazers’ list on draft night.
10. Dereck Lively II, C, Duke
Big Board 3.0 rank: 10
A five-star recruit and significant get for the Blue Devils out of high school, Lively II underwhelmed until late in his freshman campaign. He finished the season with averages of 5.2 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 2.4 blocks. Certainly not staggering numbers, but the 19-year-old has untapped upside on both ends of the floor.
Lively II’s solidly built at 7-foot-1, 230 pounds, and has a 7-7 wingspan. He has great athleticism and soft hands, which make him an ideal rim-runner in pick-and-roll situations. He is quick to turn defense into offense as well, often sprinting down the court and heading straight for the rim, where those skills can come into play.
His immediate impact would come on the defensive end, where his athleticism, length, and agility make him an excellent rim protector already – as evidenced by his 2.4 blocks last year at Duke – and potentially an elite one. He can hedge on the perimeter and recover quickly enough to fly in and affect shots near the basket.
Unlike some of the other bigs in this class, though, Lively II shows real potential as a scorer and playmaker. He could become a threat from deep in time, or at least enough of a threat to keep defenses honest and unclog the paint.
9. Amen Thompson, G, Overtime Elite
Big Board 3.0 rank: 8
Amen Thompson and his brother, Ausar, will both end draft night as top-10, if not top-five, picks. Amen is an uber-athletic playmaker in the mold of Derrick Rose, but at 6-foot-7, brings a different element as a point guard and defender.
Amen is terrific on the ball defensively. He can force turnovers and flash from one end of the floor to the other. He’s a blur in transition, but he stays in control. He’s smart, calculated, and has the apparent ability to slow his brain down, even when his body is saying otherwise.
His size and athleticism make him a stifling defender with the potential to be an elite stopper at the NBA level.
Offensively, Amen can start and stop on a dime and use his length to finish near the rim, though his slim frame makes it difficult for him to play through contact.
However, he’s an exceptionally poor shooter, even from the free-throw line. He’s limited in the half court as a scorer; his physical tools have carried him to this point. He was a 20-year-old playing in the Overtime Elite league, which features prospects as young as 16.
Amen is older than Shaedon Sharpe, who just completed an entire NBA season and got a look as a No. 1 offensive option. It’s nearly impossible to judge either Thompson twin’s real skill level, as they haven’t played against much, if any, high-level competition. Amen is the definition of a boom-or-bust prospect with legitimate concerns.
8. Jarace Walker, F, Houston
Big Board 3.0 rank: 6
The more you watch Walker and imagine his fit and role in the NBA, the more enticing of a prospect he becomes.
Walker is 6-foot-8, 240 pounds, and has a 7-foot-2 wingspan at 19 years old. When scouts talk about a prospect with a “grown man’s body,” they’re talking about someone like Walker.
His strength, length, size, athleticism, and activity make him a defensive menace. In his draft guide, Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer refers to Walker as, “a versatile wrecking ball on defense.”
Walker is strong and compact, but he can move his feet well enough and has the defensive instincts to stick with players of multiple sizes and skill levels. He also has a high defensive IQ; he knows when to help and how to force opponent ballhandlers where they don’t want to go.
Offensively, there’s a lot more to Walker’s game than he was able to show at Houston. He has a little Zion Williamson in him in terms of skill set. He’s slighter and not as explosive, but his touch around the rim is excellent and his IQ translates from the defensive end with the way he sees the floor as an excellent playmaker.
Walker is a decent ballhandler, and his strength allows him to barrel through defenders near the basket, especially when he’s the roll man off pick-and-roll action. He did shoot better than 34 percent from three on almost three attempts per game with the Cougars, so there might be even more untapped offensive potential in there.
7. Ausar Thompson, G, Overtime Elite
Big Board 3.0 rank: 7
His brother Amen may be the more heralded prospect, but Ausar Thompson is a better fit for Portland. Amen is a lead guard on offense, while Ausar projects as more of a scoring wing but with similar elite defensive potential to his brother.
Ausar is nearly impossible to stay in front of when he gets moving, and it doesn’t take much for him to go from standing still to a controlled blaze. He’s shown more improvement as a shooter than Amen throughout the pre-draft process and at the end of the OTE season.
The most attractive part of Ausar’s game for the Blazers is his defense. It hasn’t been much of a challenge for him to guard 1 through 4 to this point in his career, albeit against low-level competition.
He’s not only fast, he’s quick, long, battles through screens, and is a terrific off-ball defender. Ausar looks like a future elite wing defender, which would pair nice with Sharpe and Jerami Grant, theoretically.
But all the same worries – age, competition, bust potential – apply to Ausar just as they do to Amen.
6. Anthony Black, G, Arkansas
Big Board 3.0 rank: 5
Black has the highest basketball IQ of any player in this year’s draft, and he puts that to use as a pure floor general and exceptional passer with a 6-foot-6 frame that helps him see over defenders.
He can make quick touch passes or drive into the lane and whip one-armed passes to open shooters. He’s also adept at finding cutters or big men for lobs if the defense gets too aggressive.
He’s already an advanced pick-and-roll playmaker at 19 years old. He does a good job of using his size and smarts to keep defenders on his hip until the right opportunity presents itself, whether that’s via pass or a finish at the rim. He can set defenders up with crossovers and hesitation dribbles until a crack opens in the screen and immediately understands how to attack when it does.
If defenses play off Black, he uses his size, length, and start-and-stop shiftiness to get to the rim. He has an array of crafty finishes through and around contact and has a knack for drawing fouls.
He’s a menace defensively. He knows when and where to stick his hand out to poke the ball away, as evidenced by his 2.1 steals per game last year in the SEC. He can move his feet well enough to stay with smaller guards but can defend one through three with his size. He’s a playmaker on defense as much as he is on offense, getting deflections and starting fast breaks.
Black’s most significant issue is his shot. His form is wonky and inconsistent. He doesn’t shoot a high percentage from anywhere on the floor other than near the basket. If his shot doesn’t improve, he still has a high floor as an exceptional playmaker and defender, but if that shot ever comes around, it will move his ceiling toward the All-Star level, at minimum.
5. Taylor Hendricks, F, Central Florida
Big Board 3.0 rank: NR
Hendricks doesn’t get enough attention as a 6-foot-9, possibly 6-foot-10, forward with a 7-foot-1 wingspan who’s versatile defensively and has become a knockdown three-point shooter. That’s why he vaults to No. 5 as a fit for the Blazers.
His trajectory points toward an oversized three-and-D forward who can guard three through five and protect the rim. He played center in high school and dabbled there in his one-and-done season at UCF, as well.
He’s long enough and smart enough defensively to guard multiple positions, but unlike most wings of that archetype, he’s a fantastic deterrent at the basket – he averaged 1.7 blocks last season – with his above-average leaping ability, experience defending near the rim, and quick second jump.
Offensively, Hendricks averaged 15.1 points and 7.0 rebounds as a freshman while hitting 39.4 percent of his shots behind the arc. He’s a three-and-D tweener; rather than playing mostly as a wing, his best position in the NBA will be at the four, though in some situations, especially if he gets stronger, he’s capable of playing as a stretch five.
He can face up from the perimeter and shoot over defenders if he’s in rhythm. He’s a potentially unstoppable screener in pick-and-roll action as he presents multiple options; he’s long, athletic, and times his runs to the rim well, but he can also pick-and-pop to knock down an open shot or draw the defense out toward the perimeter.
His biggest flaw is a lack of shot creation. He doesn’t have the tightest handles and isn’t super efficient shooting off the bounce or finding teammates. But as a three-and-D player who can protect the rim like a center, Hendricks’ versatility and ceiling are off the charts.
4. Cam Whitmore, F, Villanova
Big Board 3.0 rank: 4
Whitmore is shaping up to be the hidden gem of the 2023 class.
Not many players, if any, can match Whitmore’s pure explosion as an athlete. The 6-foot-7 forward repeatedly blew past defenders during his lone season with the Wildcats and often finished those plays by elevating up and over defenders at the rim for vicious dunks or nifty layups.
That explosiveness and finishing ability, coupled with an eye for off-ball cuts, drove Whitmore to shoot 58 percent on two-point shots at a high volume last season.
At 230 pounds, he has plenty of strength to go along with that burst, which helps him as a rebounder, both on the offensive and defensive glass. His size, strength, and athleticism also point to defensive versatility; Whitmore should be able to guard two through four in the NBA and will be able to stick with smaller centers, as well.
He flashes the handles – specifically an advanced crossover – to shake defenders off the bounce and rise up for a jumper, although his shot creation is a work in progress. He averaged 0.7 assists per game during his freshman campaign, so playmaking is not a forte of his, to say the least.
Still, Whitmore’s combination of size, strength, explosiveness, and handles, along with the fact that he’s one of the youngest prospects in the entire class, point to legitimate superstar upside.
3. Brandon Miller, F, Alabama
Big Board 3.0 rank: 3
Miller’s poor NCAA Tournament shouldn’t be a reason for NBA teams to forget how talented and unstoppable he looked during the regular season.
Miller averaged almost 19 points and more than 8 rebounds per game as a freshman for the Crimson Tide. He shot 38 percent from deep on 7.5 attempts per game.
His 6-foot-9, 200-pound frame, 6-foot-11 wingspan, and offensive skill set are perfect fits for today’s NBA. Miller makes scoring look easy, whether it’s off the dribble, in catch-and-shoot situations, or as either player in a pick-and-roll. His size allows him to get his jumper off over most defenders.
His playmaking might be almost as good as his scoring. Regardless of where he is on the floor, Miller can find and make the right pass.
As a defender, the 20-year-old uses those same tools to stick with his man while remaining aware of what’s going on around him. He’s as good of a help defender as he is an on-ball defender.
Miller’s ability to score, create and make shots, and defend at a high level set him apart from almost any prospect in the 2023 class.
2. Scoot Henderson, G, G League Ignite
Big Board 3.0 rank: 2
At first glance, Henderson is all the things Portland doesn’t need. A 6-foot-2 guard who could get exposed on defense. Ball-dominant. 19 years old. A poor outside shooter.
All those things are true at the moment.
But digging deeper, those flaws aren’t as significant as they appear to be, and there are so many other things Scoot brings to the table – some that can be measured and some that can’t. He’s too strong, explosive, and competitive to be placed anywhere else on this list – whether Lillard, Simons, and Shaedon Sharpe are on the roster or all gone.
He’s the most explosive athlete in this class. Alongside Sharpe, the Blazers would be building perhaps the most athletic backcourt in the NBA.
Henderson wants to humiliate anyone on the floor if they’re standing between him and the basket, and he usually does. Moda Center would be rocking whenever Scoot has the ball in his hands.
Other than being a shaky spot-up shooter, there isn’t much the 19-year-old can’t do offensively. He can beat defenders off the dribble in isolation and pick-and-roll situations, can stop on a dime and rise up for mid-range jumpers, and can contort himself to finish in just about any way possible at the rim.
His potential as a defensive liability is overblown. Scoot has a 6-9 wingspan – the same as Amen Thompson – and his strength, quickness, and competitiveness will make him more than passable on that end of the floor.
If Scoot is available at No. 3 for the Blazers, he’s simply too good to pass on.
1. Victor Wembanyama, F, Metropolitans 92
Big Board 3.0 rank: 1
There’s not much left to say about Victor Wembanyama. Maybe there wasn’t much to say in the first place.
Height, length, athleticism, versatility, skill, shot creation, shot making, rim protection, rim running, emerging three-point shot, on-ball defender, off-ball defender … Wembanyama can do everything, and he can do it at 7-foot-5.
Congratulations to the San Antonio Spurs and their fans.