With about 72 hours to go until Portland finds out where its 2023 NBA Draft Lottery selection will fall, it’s time for Blazers Big Board 3.0: The Final Pre-Lottery Edition.
The team successfully tanked its way to this year’s fifth-best odds, and as we’ve seen before, the Blazers have had some previous lottery luck under similar circumstances. But what happens on Tuesday night will help paint a much clearer picture for general manager Joe Cronin and the rest of the front office.
Should the ping pong balls bounce Portland’s way and the Blazers land the No. 1 overall pick in a draft that features a generational prospect at the top, Cronin’s summer plans will quickly crystalize.
If that selection doesn’t land at the very top, will Portland use it as part of a trade package to acquire another superstar and help Damian Lillard push for a title as a Blazer? Or does it become a huge piece of a complete rebuild in the event Lillard is traded?
The Blazers have three picks in 2023 – its own aforementioned lottery pick, the 23rd overall pick they received from the New York Knicks in the Josh Hart trade, and the 44th overall pick, a second-round selection by way of the Atlanta Hawks.
As was the case with Big Boards 1.0 and 2.0, this isn’t a best-player-available list. It’s a list based on what the Blazers need – the top piece of the big board Cronin should have in the war room on draft night.
Whether Dame is dealt or not, Portland’s needs this offseason include size, defense, rebounding, backcourt depth, and wing depth. Version 3.0 reflects those needs.
Here are the prospects, ranked 10 to 1, who should top the Blazers’ list heading toward the draft (as of May 14).
Honorable mention:
A few prospects who missed the top 10 but might appear here as the draft process goes on or could be available when Portland’s second pick comes up at No. 23 (in no particular order):
Keyonte George, Baylor; Noah Clowney, Alabama; Rayan Rupert, New Zealand Breakers; Kris Murray, Iowa; Sidy Cissoko, G League Ignite; Jett Howard, Michigan; Dariq Whitehead, Duke; G.G. Jackson, South Carolina; James Nnaji, Barcelona; Colby Jones, Xavier
10. Dereck Lively II, Duke
Big Board 2.0 rank – NR
Lively II returns to the 10th spot in Big Board 3.0 after being dropped off version 2.0.
A five-star recruit and significant get for the Blue Devils out of high school, Lively II underwhelmed until late in his freshman campaign. He finished the season with averages of 5.2 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 2.4 blocks. Not staggering numbers, and certainly not ones you’d expect from a top-10 pick.
However, the 19-year-old has untapped upside on both ends of the floor.
Lively II’s solidly built at 7-foot-1, 230 pounds, and has a 7-7 wingspan. He has great athleticism and soft hands, which make him an ideal rim-runner in pick-and-roll situations. He is quick to turn defense into offense as well, often sprinting down the court and heading straight for the rim, where those same skills come into play.
His immediate impact would come on the defensive end, where his athleticism, length, and agility make him an above-average rim protector right now, and potentially an elite one. He can help on a switch and recover quickly to fly in for blocks near the basket.
Unlike some of the other bigs in this class, though, Lively II shows real potential as a scorer and playmaker. He could become a threat from deep, or at least enough of a threat to keep defenses honest and unclog the paint.
9. Cason Wallace, Kentucky
Big Board 2.0 rank – No. 8
Watch Cason Wallace for 30 seconds and you see four-time All-NBA defender Jrue Holiday, whose arrival with the Milwaukee Bucks coincided with a championship.
Wallace is a 6-4 guard with a 6-8 wingspan who plays stronger than he looks. More than anything, though, it’s clear he loves taking the assignment of guarding the opposition’s best scorer. He’s tough, long, determined, and smart.
Those skills also lend themselves to great off-ball defense; think Matisse Thybulle’s closeout block in the corner during his first game in Portland, except more of it.
Much like Holiday, he’s also an above-average spot-up shooter and a floor general who makes smart reads, smart passes, and doesn’t turn the ball over much.
Wallace showed his total package in Kentucky’s loss to Kansas State in the Round of 32 in this year’s NCAA Tournament, nearly dragging the Wildcats to a win with his all-around game. He finished with 21 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 steals while going 9-of-11 from the floor.
8. Amen Thompson, Overtime Elite
Big Board 2.0 rank – No. 7
Amen Thompson and his brother, Ausar, will both be top-10 picks by the time the 2023 draft rolls around, possibly top-five. Amen is an uber-athletic playmaker in the mold of Derrick Rose, but at 6-7, brings a different element.
Amen is a terrific on-ball defender who can force turnovers and flash from one end of the floor to the other. He’s a blur in transition, but he doesn’t go so fast that he loses control and lets passes fly without purpose. He’s smart, calculated, and has the apparent ability to slow his brain down, even when his body is flying.
He can start and stop on a dime and use his length to finish near the rim, though his slim frame makes it difficult for him to play through contact. His size and athleticism make him a stifling defender with the potential to be an elite stopper at the NBA level.
However, he’s an exceptionally poor shooter, even from the free-throw line. He’s limited in the half court as a scorer; his physical tools have carried him to this point. He was a 20-year-old playing in the Overtime Elite league, which features prospects as young as 16.
Amen is older than Shaedon Sharpe, who just completed an entire NBA season and got a look as a No. 1 offensive option. It’s near impossible to judge either Thompson twin’s real skill level, as they haven’t played against much, if any, high-level competition. Amen is the definition of a boom-or-bust prospect but with legitimate worry about the bust part.
7. Ausar Thompson
Big Board 2.0 rank – No. 6
His brother Amen may be the more heralded prospect, but Ausar Thompson is a better fit for Portland. Amen is a lead guard on offense, while Ausar projects as more of a scoring wing but with similar elite defensive potential.
The Ringer‘s Kevon O’Connor sees Shaun Livingston with elite athleticism, but an argument could be made for a Lonzo Ball comparison with Ausar’s defense and potential to be a passable shooter.
Similar to his brother, Ausar is nearly impossible to stay in front of when he gets moving, and it doesn’t take much for him to go from standing still to a controlled blaze. He’s shown more improvement as a shooter than Amen, but he still has a long way to go.
The most attractive part of Ausar’s game for the Blazers is his defense. It hasn’t been much of a challenge for him to guard 1 through 4 to this point in his career, albeit against low-level competition.
He’s not only fast, he’s quick, long, battles through screens, and is a terrific off-ball defender. Ausar looks like a future elite wing defender, which would pair nice with Sharpe and Jerami Grant, theoretically.
But all the same worries – age, competition, bust potential – apply to Ausar just as they do to Amen.
6. Jarace Walker, Houston
Big Board 2.0 rank – No. 9
The more you watch Walker and imagine his fit and role in the NBA, the more enticing of a prospect he becomes.
Walker is 6-8, 240 pounds, has a 7-2 wingspan, and is still only 18 years old. When experts talk about scouting a prospect with a “grown man’s body,” they’re talking about someone like Walker.
His strength, length, size, athleticism, and activity make him a defensive menace. In his draft guide, O’Connor refers to Walker as, “a versatile wrecking ball on defense.”
He’s strong and compact, but he can move his feet well enough and has the defensive instincts to stick with players of multiple sizes and skill levels. He also has a high defensive IQ; he knows when to help and how to force opponent ballhandlers where they don’t want to go.
Offensively, there’s a lot more to Walker’s game than he showed at Houston. He has a little Zion Williamson in him in terms of skill set. He’s slighter (in shape, one could say) and not as explosive, but his touch around the rim is excellent and his IQ translates from the defensive end with the way he sees the floor and can playmake.
He’s a decent ballhandler, and his strength allows him to barrel through defenders near the basket, especially when he’s the roll man off pick-and-roll action. His shot was fairly inconsistent at Houston, but he did shoot better than 34 percent from three on almost three attempts per game.
5. Anthony Black, Arkansas
Big Board 2.0 rank – No. 4
Black drops one spot here, but not through any fault of his own. Other than Victor Wembanyama, there might not be a more perfect plug-and-play prospect for the Blazers’ current roster. If, by some miracle, Lillard stays and Portland keeps a pick that isn’t No. 1 overall, Black is the perfect complimentary guard for Dame and Anfernee Simons.
Or, if Lillard is gone, he’s the perfect complimentary guard for Simons and/or Sharpe.
Black is a 6-7 pass-first playmaker, quite possibly the smartest player in the entire 2023 draft class, and has the length, IQ, and functional athleticism to be a potential All-NBA defender.
Black averaged 13 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 steals on an underachieving Arkansas team that featured another likely lottery pick in Nick Smith Jr. Smith is a pure scoring guard, so it shouldn’t be much of an adjustment for Black to step into a situation like Portland’s and thrive next to another one.
The 19-year-old is a natural passer from any area of the floor and an instinctive creator in the half court, which is only magnified by his height. He can run an offense or be a high-level connecting part of it, moving the ball and manipulating defenses.
Black isn’t a great shooter, which is holding him back from being considered as a top-five pick. He’s athletic enough and crafty enough, though, to be able to get to the rim and score.
Regardless of what Cronin does with the Blazers roster this summer, Black would be a fit.
4. Cam Whitmore, Villanova
Big Board 2.0 rank – No. 5
Whitmore is shaping up to be the hidden gem of the 2023 class.
The Villanova prospect has yet to turn 19 and should expect to see his name skyrocket up draft boards once the pre-draft process continues. He’s not often considered a better prospect than the Thompson twins, but he has a higher floor and just as high of a ceiling.
At 6-7 and already more than 230 pounds with a 7-foot wingspan, Whitmore is physically built to start in the NBA from day one, and the only thing more ready than his body may be his intangibles.
Whitmore’s motor seemingly never stopped when he played for the Wildcats. He’s relentless driving to the rim and can explode with his burst and size. He doesn’t need much room to get a step on a defender, use his physicality, and finish with power.
He’s a willing passer, too. More experience, especially once he gets used to the speed of the pro game, should see his offensive decision making improve as he learns when to aggressively hunt his own shot and when to defer.
He doesn’t have the side-to-side quickness or agility some other wings in this class do, but he’s quick enough and strong enough to be a good on-ball defender, and his size allows him to bang in the post against forwards and small-ball centers.
There’s plenty of room for growth as Whitmore gets comfortable and develops the rest of his offensive game.
3. Brandon Miller, Alabama
Big Board 2.0 rank – No. 2
Miller’s poor NCAA Tournament shouldn’t be a reason for NBA teams to forget how talented and unstoppable he looked during the regular season.
Miller averaged almost 19 points and more than 8 rebounds per game as a freshman for the Crimson Tide. He shot 38 percent from deep on 7.5 attempts a night.
His 6-9, 200-pound frame, 6-11 wingspan, and offensive skillset are perfect fits for today’s NBA. Miller makes scoring look easy, whether it’s off the dribble, in catch-and-shoot situations, or as either player in a pick-and-roll. His size allows him to get his jumper off over most defenders.
His playmaking might be almost as good as his scoring. Regardless of where he is on the floor, Miller can find and make the right pass.
As a defender, the 20-year-old uses those same tools to stick with his man while remaining aware of what’s going on around him. He’s as good of a help defender as he is an on-ball defender.
Miller’s ability to score, create and make shots, and defend at a high level set him apart from almost any prospect in the 2023 class.
2. Scoot Henderson, G League Ignite
Big Board 2.0 rank – No. 3
Scoot went from unranked on Big Board 1.0 (strictly based on fit assuming that Lillard would still be in Portland), to third on version 2.0, and now jumps to second on the final pre-lottery rankings.
He’s too strong, explosive, and competitive to be placed anywhere else on this list – whether Dame, Simons, and Sharpe are all on the roster or all gone.
The biggest question mark for Scoot in Portland is his size. The Blazers really, really, really don’t need another 6-2 guard. But Henderson isn’t the same defensive liability as Lillard, Simons, and CJ McCollum before them, are. He’s stronger than any of those three, and with a 6-9 wingspan, won’t be a minus on that end of the floor, even against bigger guards or wings.
He’s the most explosive athlete in this class. If Sharpe is still in Portland, the Blazers would be building around perhaps the most athletic backcourt in the NBA.
Henderson wants to humiliate anyone on the floor if they’re standing between him and the basket, and he usually does. Moda Center would be rocking whenever Scoot has the ball in his hands. O’Connor refers to him as a cross between Russell Westbrook and Allen Iverson.
Other than being a shaky spot-up shooter, there isn’t much the 19-year-old can’t do offensively. He can beat defenders off the dribble in isolation and pick-and-roll situations, can stop on a dime and rise up for mid-range jumpers, and can contort himself to finish in just about any way possible at the rim.
1. Victor Wembanyama, Metropolitan 92
Big Board 2.0 rank – No. 1
With more than a month still remaining until the draft, there’s not much left to say about Victor Wembanyama. Maybe there wasn’t much to say in the first place.
How do you use words to describe this?
Victor Wembanyama is unearthly 🤯😱pic.twitter.com/APecmy4LyM
— FIBA (@FIBA) April 2, 2023
Victor Wembanyama officially declares for the 2023 NBA Draft! pic.twitter.com/LgLell4Obw
— Ballislife.com (@Ballislife) April 21, 2023
Height, length, athleticism, versatility, skill, shot creation, shot making, rim protection, rim running, emerging 3-point shot, on-ball defender, off-ball defender … Wembanyama can do everything, and he can do it at 7-3. (Some scouts argue for 7-4 or even 7-5).
Whoever lands the No. 1 pick will be getting the greatest prospect since LeBron James.
Maybe the NBA lottery universe will favor the Blazers this summer. If not, there are other top-10, maybe even top-5, prospects that would look good in black and red (or teal).