Now that the NBA’s regular season is officially well in the books and the Damian Lillard trade speculation is ramping up, it’s time for a new Blazers Big Board.
Portland successfully tanked its way to the fifth-best lottery odds. Whether or not that pick will remain with the Trail Blazers is in question at the moment, depending on what general manager Joe Cronin decides to do about the Dame situation.
Does he use the team’s lottery pick as part of a trade to land another superstar? Or does he trade Lillard and it just becomes a stable of other draft assets to build for the future?
The Blazers have three picks in 2023 – its own aforementioned lottery pick, the 23rd overall pick they got from the New York Knicks in the Josh Hart trade, and the 44th overall pick, a selection they acquired from the Atlanta Hawks.
To reiterate, this isn’t a best player available list. It’s a list based on what the Blazers need, the top piece of the big board Cronin should have in the war room on draft night.
With a Lillard trade becoming increasingly plausible since Big Board 1.0, the need for a high-ceiling guard has joined size, defense, rebounding, and wing depth as offseason priorities for Portland. Version 2.0 reflects that.
With that said, here are the prospects, ranked 10 to 1, who should top the Blazers’ list heading toward the draft (as of April 21).
Honorable mention:
A few prospects who just missed the top 10 but might appear here as the draft process goes on or could be available when Portland’s second pick comes up at 23 (in no particular order):
Dereck Lively II, Duke; Noah Clowney, Alabama; Rayan Rupert, New Zealand Breakers; Kris Murray, Iowa; Sidy Cissoko, G League Ignite; Jett Howard, Michigan; Dariq Whitehead, Duke; G.G. Jackson, South Carolina; James Nnaji, Barcelona; Colby Jones, Xavier
10. Keyonte George, Baylor
George is not quite an Anfernee Simons clone, but close, if Simons had a skill set similar to what he does now when he was 19. The Baylor star proved to be a multi-level, creative scoring threat in his one season in college but has the upside to become a more complete player.
George averaged 15 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 assists while shooting 34 percent from three on almost 7 attempts per game. His tape looks more explosive than his numbers, though.
He can create space to get his own shot off from almost any area of the floor, regardless of who the defender is and where they are. That includes step-backs, drives to the basket, and threes.
He’s a good pick-and-roll player which, if Lillard does get traded, would come in handy in not leaving Simons all alone as the Blazers only high-level facilitator.
George is stronger than Ant, but not quite as fluid or athletic. He’s 6-foot-4 and 185 pounds, though, which would leave Portland with another small-ish guard for opposing offenses to target.
9. Jarace Walker, Houston
Walker is a 6-foot-8, 240-pound freshman for the Houston Cougars. He’s still only 18 years old and has a 7-2 wingspan to go along with his thickly built body.
His length, size, athleticism, and activity make him a defensive menace. In his draft guide for The Ringer, Kevin O’Connor referred to Walker as “a versatile wrecking ball on defense.”
He’s so strong and compact that he physically does look like a wrecking ball, but he can move his feet well enough and has the defensive instincts to stick with players of multiple sizes and skill levels.
His defensive IQ is off the charts, as he knows when to help and how to force opponent ball handlers where they don’t want to go.
Offensively, Walker plays a bit like Zion Williamson. He’s slighter and not as explosive, but his touch around the rim is excellent and his IQ translates from the defensive end with the way he sees the floor and can playmake.
His strength allows him to barrel through defenders near the basket, especially when he’s the roll man off pick-and-roll action, but his shot is inconsistent at this point.
8. Cason Wallace, Kentucky
Watch Cason Wallace for 30 seconds and you see four-time All-NBA defender Jrue Holiday, whose arrival with the Milwaukee Bucks coincided with a championship.
Wallace is a 6-4 guard with a 6-8 wingspan who plays stronger than he looks. More than anything, though, it’s clear he loves taking the assignment of guarding the opposition’s best scorer. He’s tough, long, determined, and smart.
Those skills also lend themselves to great off-ball defense; think Matisse Thybulle’s closeout block in the corner during his first game in Portland, except more of it.
Much like Holiday, he’s also an above-average spot-up shooter and a floor general who makes smart reads, smart passes, and doesn’t turn the ball over much.
Wallace showed his total package in Kentucky’s loss to Kansas State in the Round of 32 in this year’s NCAA Tournament, nearly dragging the Wildcats to a win with his all-around game. He finished with 21 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 steals while going 9-of-11 from the floor.
7. Amen Thompson, Overtime Elite
Amen Thompson and his brother, Ausar, will both be top-10 picks by the time the 2023 draft rolls around. Physically, both brothers have similar profiles, but certain areas of their games are different.
Amen is more of a playmaker than Ausar – imagine a Derrick Rose-type, but in a skinny 6-7 frame.
Amen is a terrific on-ball defender who can force turnovers and flash from one end of the floor to the other in transition. Despite his age and lack of experience, he’s an intelligent help defender, as well.
He’s a blur in transition, but he doesn’t go so fast that he loses control and just chucks passes everywhere. He’s smart, calculated, and has the apparent ability to slow his brain down, even when his body is flying.
He can start and stop on a dime and use his length to finish near the rim, although his slim frame makes it difficult for him to play through contact. He’s an exceptionally poor shooter, even from the free-throw line, which is worrying as far as any potential long-term improvement.
He’s limited in the half court as a scorer, but his physical tools have carried him to this point.
6. Ausar Thompson, Overtime Elite
His brother Amen may be the more heralded prospect, but Ausar Thompson is a better fit for Portland.
O’Connor sees Shaun Livingston with elite athleticism, but Ausar could easily be Lonzo Ball with elite athleticism because of his potential as an All-NBA defender.
Similar to his brother, Ausar is nearly impossible to stay in front of when he gets moving, and it doesn’t take much for him to go from standing still to a controlled blaze.
He keeps the ball moving offensively. He’s shown more improvement as a shooter than Amen, but he still has a long way to go.
The most attractive part of Ausar’s game for the Blazers, though, is his defense. It hasn’t been much of a challenge for him to guard 1 through 4 to this point in his career, albeit against low-level competition. He’s not only fast, he’s quick, long, battles through screens, and is a terrific off-ball defender who can fly in from off camera to swat shots at the rim.
Amen might be the more talented offensive prospect, but Ausar looks like a future elite wing defender, which would pair nice with Shaedon Sharpe and Jerami Grant, theoretically.
5. Cam Whitmore, Villanova
Whitmore has yet to turn 19 and should expect to see his name skyrocket up draft boards once the pre-draft process gets fully underway. He’s not often considered a better prospect than the Thompson twins, but he has a higher floor and just as high of a ceiling.
At 6-7 and already more than 230 pounds with a 7-foot wingspan, Whitmore is physically built to start in the NBA from day one. The only thing more ready than his body may be his intangibles.
Whitmore’s motor seemingly never stopped when he played for the Wildcats. He’s relentless driving to the rim and can explode with his burst and size. He doesn’t need much room to get a step on a defender, use his physicality, and finish with power.
He’s a willing passer. More experience, especially once he gets used to the speed of the pro game, will see his offensive decision making improve as he learns when to aggressively hunt his own shot and when to defer.
He doesn’t have the side-to-side quickness or agility some other wings in this class do, but he’s quick enough and strong enough to be a good on-ball defender, and his size allows him to bang in the post against small-ball forwards and centers.
There’s plenty of room to grow, however, as Whitmore gets comfortable and develops the rest of his offensive game.
4. Anthony Black, Arkansas
Black would be perfect playing behind Lillard and Simons, with Lillard or with Simons, or even with Lillard and Simons together.
He’s a 6-7 pass-first playmaker, quite possibly the smartest player in the entire 2023 draft class, and has the length and functional athleticism to be above average on the defensive end.
Black averaged 13 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 steals on an underachieving Arkansas team that featured another likely lottery pick in Nick Smith Jr. Smith is a pure scoring guard, so it shouldn’t be much of an adjustment for Black to step into a situation like Portland’s and thrive next to another one.
The 19-year-old is a natural passer from any area of the floor and an instinctive creator in the half court, which is only magnified by his height. He can run an offense or simply be a high-level connecting part of it, moving the ball and manipulating defenses.
Black isn’t a great shooter, which is holding him back from being a lock as a top-5 pick. He’s athletic enough and crafty enough, though, to be able to get to the rim and score.
Regardless of what Cronin does with the Blazers roster this summer, Black would be a fit.
3. Scoot Henderson, G-League Ignite
With Lillard’s and/or Simons’ future with the Blazers in question, Scoot jumps from the honorable mention section to No. 3 on Portland’s Big Board.
The 6-2 guard is the most explosive player in this class. If Sharpe is still in Portland next season, the Blazers would be building around perhaps the most athletic backcourt in the NBA.
Henderson wants to humiliate anyone on the floor if they’re standing between him and the basket, and he usually does. Moda Center would be rocking whenever Scoot has the ball in his hands. O’Connor refers to him as a cross between Russell Westbrook and Allen Iverson.
Other than being a shaky spot-up shooter, there isn’t much the 19-year-old can’t do offensively. He can beat defenders off the dribble in isolation and pick-and-roll situations, can stop on a dime and rise up for jumpers, and can contort himself to finish in just about any way possible at the rim.
He’s a 6-2 guard – both the Blazers and their fans know what that situation can turn into defensively. But Scoot’s activity, athleticism, and hungry playing style make him more than a passable defender against other guards.
If Dame leaves this summer, this might be his replacement, both on the court and off.
2. Brandon Miller, Alabama
Miller’s poor NCAA Tournament shouldn’t be a reason for NBA teams to forget how talented and unstoppable he looked during the regular season. That should especially ring true for Portland.
Miller averaged almost 19 points and more than 8 rebounds per game as a freshman for the Crimson Tide. He shot 38 percent from deep on 7.5 attempts a night.
His 6-9, 200-pound frame, 6-11 wingspan, and offensive skillset are perfect fits for today’s NBA. Miller makes scoring look easy, whether it’s off the dribble, in catch-and-shoot situations, or as either player in a pick-and-roll. His size allows him to get his jumper off over 99 percent of defenders.
His playmaking might be almost as good as his scoring. Regardless of where he is on the floor, Miller can find and make the right pass.
As a defender, the 20-year-old uses those same tools to stick with his man while remaining aware of what’s going on around him. He’s as good of a help defender as he is an on-ball defender.
Miller’s ability to score, create and make shots, and defend at a high level set him apart from almost any prospect in the 2023 class.
1. Victor Wembanyama, Metropolitan 92
There are two months left until the draft, and already there’s not much left to say about Victor Wembanyama. Maybe there wasn’t much to say in the first place.
How do you use words to describe this?
Victor Wembanyama is unearthly 🤯😱pic.twitter.com/APecmy4LyM
— FIBA (@FIBA) April 2, 2023
Height, length, athleticism, versatility, skill, shot creation, shot making, rim protection, rim running, emerging 3-point threat, on-ball defender, off-ball defender … Wembanyama can do everything, and he can do it at 7-3. (Some scouts argue for 7-4 or even 7-5).
Whoever lands the No. 1 pick will be getting the greatest prospect since LeBron James.
Maybe the NBA lottery universe will favor the Blazers this summer. If not, there are other top-10, maybe even top-5, prospects that would look good in black and red (or teal).