The Portland Trail Blazers are in year one of a total rebuild. Damian Lillard is in Milwaukee, and Portland has dropped near the bottom of the standings. They have young talent, and a couple of players are blossoming. The Blazers need more to become serious contenders, but it is a strong start with plenty of draft capital to add to their mix.
General manager Joe Cronin and the front office must make the puzzle pieces fit. They need a couple of star talents surrounded by quality role players. Portland must develop their players and add from the outside. Scoot Henderson’s potential made him a top-three pick in 2023. Can the Blazers make him into a star?
It won’t be easy to develop them, but what pieces do the Blazers have for the future? Here is a look at each member of their 15-man roster ranked by their ceiling.
Fringe rotation option
This group features bench players who won’t be part of a playoff rotation. They do not see the floor unless someone is injured or out of the lineup.
Ish Wainwright
The 6’6 forward has played a total of nine minutes this season and is already 29 years old. He was in the Suns rotation in 2023, but fell out in the playoffs. Wainwright is in his prime, and this is all Blazers fans should expect from him.
Skylar Mays
Mays is already in his prime and cannot get consistent run on a rebuilding team. His 295 minutes played this season are a career-high, but he is shooting under 40 percent from the field and just 29.3 percent on his threes. The second-round pick in 2020 may be on his way out of the NBA.
Moses Brown
Brown is back with the Blazers after starting his NBA career in Portland in 2019. He has never played more than 43 games in a season and has topped nine minutes per contest just once. The 7’2 big man has played for six different teams and is quickly becoming a journeyman.
Moses Brown is only 24 years old, but he has played a total of 35 minutes through the Blazers' first 28 games. He is not part of their rotation and is unlikely to significantly improve.
Rotation piece
These players are or can grow into important parts of the rotation, but are unlikely to ever play 30-plus minutes per game or be one of the five best players on a contending roster.
Jabari Walker
The 6’9 forward has played in all 28 games and is averaging 17.8 minutes each night in his second NBA season as a 21-year-old. It may be a bit unfair to keep him in this tier, but his offensive game needs work. He is a career 27.5 percent 3-point shooter and averages 7.3 points per game.
Jabari Walker has room to improve, but he is likely best suited for a reserve role on a contending team, even in his prime.
Matisse Thybulle
The 26-year-old is an elite defender but has never played more than 25.5 minutes per game for a full season. Thybulle got a three-year $33 million contract from the Mavericks in the offseason that Portland matched, but his playing time did not increase. The 6’5 wing plays a key role, but his limited offensive skill set prevents him from playing massive minutes.
Thybulle is shooting 39.3 percent from 3-point range this season, but he struggles to make plays and rebound. He has made two All-Defensive teams but must improve his offensive game to jump into the next tier. There has been little progress in his first five NBA seasons, which sticks him here.
Starter
This group can or has the potential to be one of the five best players on a contending roster and is capable of handling 30-plus minutes every night and into the playoffs. Some may be better suited to a sixth-man role, but they are still meeting the playing time threshold.
Rayan Rupert
The 2023 second-round draft pick is not part of the nightly rotation but is only 19 years old. His offensive game needs work, but the 6’6 wing profiles as a stout defender. He has time to blossom into a starter and key role player but must continue to improve.
Toumani Camara
The 23-year-old rookie is averaging 25.0 minutes per game and has started 19 of the Blazers' 28 games. He is one of the steals of the 2023 NBA Draft and could be a key starter for a decade-plus in the NBA. Camara was a massive get from the Suns in the Damian Lillard trade.
Kris Murray
The 23-year-old rookie is off to a bit of a slow start, but the Blazers would not have selected him 23rd overall if they did not believe he had starter potential. The 6’8 forward needs time to develop but is still, at least, four years away from his prime.
Robert Williams
Williams was a key starter for the Celtics in their 2022 run to the NBA Finals, but injuries have limited him since. The 26-year-old should just be entering his prime, but he has played just 41 games in the last two seasons combined. Can Rob Will bounce back? It is an impossible question to answer at this stage.
Malcolm Brogdon
Brogdon has thrived as a starter and a sixth man in his eight-year NBA career. The 31-year-old is nearing the end of his prime but remains a key role player. Multiple contenders will try to trade for Brogdon before the deadline, and the Blazers may decide to cash in if they can get a first-round pick in return.
Fringe All-Star
This is the CJ McCollum and Mike Conley class. They are standout players and among the top three on their team, but are always right on the cut line to be an All-Star. McCollum has still never made it, despite averaging over 20 points per game for eight straight years. Conley has one All-Star appearance in his stellar career.
Jerami Grant
Grant is having another outstanding season and is on pace to average over 20 points per game for the third time in four seasons. The 6’7 forward is in his prime and will draw interest from contenders, even with his massive five-year $160 million contract on the books.
Deandre Ayton
The former number-one overall pick may never reach these heights, but the potential is still there. Ayton is only 25 years old and big men sometimes take a bit longer to develop. He averaged 18 points and 10 rebounds per game in 2023 and played a key role in the Suns making the NBA Finals in 2021. If he can push closer to 20 and 12 on a contender, he could garner some All-Star buzz.
Anfernee Simons
The 24-year-old has been outstanding this season. He is averaging nearly 27 points per game and shooting 39.8 percent from 3-point range. His defense has been problematic, and Simons is likely suited to be the third-best player on a contending roster. That makes him a fringe All-Star, despite his incredible play this season.
All-Star
This group is the second tier in the NBA hierarchy. The Blazers do not have anyone who profiles as the best player on a championship roster. There are only a handful of true alphas in the league each year, but two current Blazers could be annual All-Stars and top 25 players in the league.
Shaedon Sharpe
It was difficult to evaluate Sharpe ahead of the 2022 NBA Draft because he did not play for Kentucky. The 6’6 wing showed flashes as a rookie and is breaking out in his second NBA season. There is still room to grow for the 20-year-old, but he is already a starter and key rotation piece.
Do not be surprised to see him vault over 20 points per game in year three and into All-Star consideration. Sharpe is displaying the most upside on the Blazers roster and could be one of the best players in the world in his prime.
Scoot Henderson
The 19-year-old rookie is struggling, but that is not uncommon for first-year point guards. James Harden averaged 9.9 points and 1.8 assists in 22.9 minutes per game in his rookie season. Russell Westbrook, Darius Garland, Chauncey Billups, and more struggled to efficiently score and make plays. It takes time to solve NBA defenses.
Henderson was viewed as a future star coming out of the draft and still has the potential to reach those heights. Will he? It is too early to tell, but Scoot is a relentless worker with tons of upside.
The Portland Trail Blazers are still searching for their number one. They likely won’t find it in the 2024 NBA Draft, but expect them to try. The Blazers will keep building, so stay tuned.