The Portland Trail Blazers signaled the end of an era when they traded Damian Lillard. It happened in part because they drafted Scoot Henderson third overall in 2023. The 6’2 teenager has star potential and was arguably the most sought-after prospect behind Victor Wembanyama. Portland entered a rebuild before the start of the season, but few expected Henderson to struggle this much.
The 19-year-old missed some time but is averaging 10.8 points, 4.1 assists, 2.7 rebounds, and 3.1 turnovers in 26.1 minutes per game. He has mostly come off the bench and is committing a scary 3.8 personal fouls per game. Henderson is shooting 36.7 percent from the field and 25.0 percent on his threes. It has been a disastrous start, but things are starting to improve.
Scoot would not be the first rookie point guard to struggle. James Harden averaged 9.9 points and 1.8 assists on 40.3 percent shooting in year one. Darius Garland produced a negative value over replacement player (VORP) and was an All-Star in his third season. Russell Westbrook struggled, including having a negative-12 net rating as a rookie. All three of those players turned into stars, and Henderson can too. Here are some reasons Portland fans should be optimistic and a few worries about their teenage point guard.
Reason Scoot Henderson becomes star: Athletic ability
It does not take long to recognize Henderson’s special ability on the floor. He has a lightening quick first-step and loves to attack the rim. It leads to plenty of ferocious dunks and must-see highlights. His ability to get into the paint and finish is impressive for a 6’3 guard and a standout skill.
Henderson has a reported 6’9 wingspan to go with his athleticism. Head coach Chauncey Billups wants his team to standout on the defensive end, and he made two All-Defensive teams at the same size as Henderson. Being a plus-athlete gives the teenager defensive potential, even if he is a bit undersized to switch in the modern NBA.
Russell Westbrook, Derrick Rose, and several other small point guards had a lightning-quick first step and became superstars. Trail Blazers fans would love Scoot Henderson to join that list, but he has a ton of work to do.
Why Blazers fans should panic: Defense
The Blazers give up 115.1 points per 100 possessions and rank 19th in defensive rating. It is not spectacular, but respectable for a rebuilding team playing mostly young talent. Scoot Henderson has struggled on both ends of the floor, and Portland’s defensive rating drops to 120 with the rookie in the game. They would rank 27th in the NBA if that was their number.
The Trail Blazers have outscored the opposition just twice in the last ten games with Henderson on the floor. Nobody is expecting them to win 40 games or make a playoff push, but it will be tough to turn a corner getting outscored when your star is in the game.
Coach Billups is preaching defense and has been in Henderson's shoes. He was the third overall pick in 1997 and struggled as a rookie only to become a five-time All-Star and lead the Pistons to a championship in 2004. Billups is helping Henderson develop, and his defense needs time.
The 19-year-old needs to defend without fouling and get back to being a pest to the opposition’s lead ball-handler. He has the athletic ability and tools, but fans have only seen flashes at this stage. The competition is a massive step up, and Scoot is still adjusting to his new level.
Reason Scoot Henderson becomes a star: Toughness
Some young players lose confidence and others struggle to make adjustments. Henderson has not let his poor play impact him. He continues to get better, and head coach Chauncey Billups was quick to praise his toughness and growth.
Every star player is mentally tough. They do not care how many shots they miss, there is always a belief that the next one is dropping. If they commit a turnover or miss a defensive assignment, they do not hang their head and pout. It is on to the next play. Henderson has that toughness, and it will be a key part of his development.
Toughness alone is not enough. Scoot blends it with an impressive skill set and a top-notch work ethic. He wants to be one of the best players in the league and continues to put in the work. Henderson may never get there, but it won’t be for lack of effort. The Blazers believe in him and will continue to assist his development in any way possible.
If Scoot Henderson can improve two key areas of his offensive game, his play will take off. There will be mistakes and difficult times along that path, but his toughness will carry him through.
Why Blazers fans should panic: Shooting
His jumper has been a question mark for years. He made just 14 of his 51 3-point attempts last season for the G League Ignite. Henderson struggles on pull-up jumpers and was inconsistent in the mid-range. He cannot just strictly be a finisher at the rim if he wants to become a superstar.
The 19-year-old is taking more threes this season, but they aren’t failing. He is just 18 of 72 in his first 19 games, which is 25.0 percent. All of his mid-range percentages start with a three, and Scoot is even shooting just 27.3 percent on corner 3-pointers.
Russell Westbrook has a career 3-point percentage of 30.4, so it is not necessary to be an elite shooter. The nine-time All-Star was named one of the 75 greatest players in NBA history, but he has never won a championship. Scoot wants to win and must improve his jumper to do so.
Teams will keep daring him to shoot if Henderson does not make them pay. The 19-year-old gets the ball out quickly and continues to work on his shot. It may take a few more tweaks, but becoming even a 32 percent 3-point shooter would be a vast improvement.
If Scoot Henderson doesn’t consistently knock down jumpers, the Portland Trail Blazers must build a specific team around him. One that maximizes floor spacing and can play to his strengths. They don’t want to do that, so expect his shooting to be a massive focus from year one to his sophomore campaign.
Reason Scoot Henderson becomes star: Finishing ability
Blazers fans have not seen too many dunks from Henderson, but he can unleash them. Having a 6’3 guard with his leaping ability and tenacity is impactful. Henderson is more Ja Morant than Kyrie Irving. He will try to tear down the rim if given a lane to jam.
Scoot has shown an impressive floater game with both hands when the opposition rotation in front of him. His finishing has been slightly below average to start his rookie season, but most first-year players struggle, especially early in their opening year. Henderson will get inside and finish at a high rate in short order.
The Blazers need more shooting around him to fully unlock this part of his game. They are currently 25th in 3-point percentage and 20th in threes made this season. Portland is in the early stages of their rebuild and must sort out their spacing.
If Scoot Henderson becomes an elite finisher at the rim and cleans up his playmaking, opposing teams will quickly have a problem on their hands. Adding in, at least, a mid-range jumper only adds to the issues. The potential is there, but Henderson needs to do it consistently.
Why Blazers fans should panic: Decision-making
If Scoot Henderson plans on being the Blazers' lead ball-handler, he must get his decision-making in check. The 6’3 guard is averaging 4.1 assists and 3.1 turnovers in 26.1 minutes per game. His assist-to-turnover ratio is 187th amongst NBA guards this season and his turnover rate is the second-worst among players with at least 13 games played.
Henderson needs to take better care of the ball. He must cut down on the flashy passes and just keep the ball moving. Portland will put talent around him, but it does little good if Scoot fails to put them in positions to succeed. Right now, there are a lot of missed opportunities, but things are slowly improving.
Henderson must let the game slow down. He has played out of control frequently. The 19-year-old must settle in and start distributing the ball. He needs to strike a better balance of scoring versus playmaking and simply cut down on his mistakes.
Will Scoot Henderson become a star? It is too early to tell. He certainly has the athletic ability and ceiling to get there. The 6’3 guard will put in the work, but things need to break right. Only time will tell, but stay tuned because Scoot is only getting better from here.