Scoot Henderson had an up-and-down rookie year in what was a disappointing season overall, especially relative to the high expectations of being a No. 3 overall pick. On the surface, he finished with respectable averages of 14.0 points, 5.4 assists, and 3.1 rebounds. Looking at just those numbers, it's surprising that Henderson didn't make an NBA All-Rookie Team.
But it makes more sense when considering he was wildly inefficient, averaging 3.4 turnovers per game and shooting under 40 percent from the field, which was further highlighted by his inability to finish around the rim. Following the All-Star break, Scoot led the entire NBA in turnovers at 4.5 per game. He also had the worst plus-minus in a game in NBA history (-58 against the Miami Heat) and the worst plus-minus of the season (-12.1) of any player to play more than five games.
Henderson did show flashes of the All-Star potential that made him such a coveted draft prospect. But at the same time, the Blazers can't go all-in on Scoot in their rebuild, given the concerns and inconsistencies he showed in his rookie season. In that sense, it's a make-or-break year for him despite being just 20 years old.
No one is expecting Scoot to be flawless. But if he can't improve key areas of his game to the point where Portland feels comfortable making him their long-term starting point guard, it could already be time for them to at least consider exploring alternative options.
1. Keep Simons as long-term point guard
It remains to be seen if the Blazers plan to open the 2024-25 season with Shaedon Sharpe or Henderson as the guard to start alongside Anfernee Simons. ESPN's Bobby Marks has the Blazers' projected starting lineup (subscription required) with Scoot and Simons in it, while other NBA analysts like Zach Lowe have voiced their opinion on why Sharpe should be the final starter.
Regardless of who starts, Portland's backcourt trio should all see substantial minutes now that Malcolm Brogdon is out of the picture. But if Scoot fails to show progress from his rocky rookie season, the Blazers should consider making Simons and Sharpe the backcourt of the future.
Simons has been heavily involved in trade rumors throughout the offseason. He could potentially still be moved this season, especially if Henderson shows enough promise to inspire confidence in the Blazers' front office to make such a significant trade. But Simons, 25, is young enough to be a focal point of the Blazers' rebuilding plans should Scoot fail to deliver.
Simons is the only internal option that the Blazers should consider as a viable backup plan for their long-term point guard. They'll also have to get creative and look elsewhere.
2. Trade Simons for Anthony Black package
The Blazers could also trade Henderson to the Orlando Magic, who are in need of a point guard. However, in this scenario, Scoot is struggling to play well, which would hinder his trade value.
Additionally, Simons fits their team much better. Besides being from the Orlando area, there's a basketball reason Simons was linked to the Magic all summer (mainly in mock trade proposals). Orlando is in win-now mode and could benefit from adding a secondary playmaker like Simons, who is more established and a better shooter than Scoot.
The Blazers could be more inclined to make a potential deal with the Magic if Scoot is struggling and if they only view Simons as more of a combo guard rather than their long-term answer at point guard. Not to mention the possibility of Simons being discontent should the Blazers have another season close to 21 wins.
Despite it being constantly talked about this summer, there hasn't been anything recently to suggest that a trade like this would get done anytime soon. But if the Blazers do happen to make a trade with the Magic, they should prioritize Anthony Black over Cole Anthony.
Black isn't nearly the level of player Simons is, so the package would have to include significant draft capital as well, perhaps in the form of two first-round picks. And while he doesn't jump off the page as someone with All-Star-level potential like the Blazers' backcourt trio has, Black would be a great addition as a role player. He's just 20 years old, a recent No. 6 overall pick (2023), and is a solid two-way guard given his 6-foot-7 size and athleticism.
Black wouldn't make up for what the Blazers would miss in Simons, but this type of deal could better position them to address the point guard position in the future between him and future draft capital.
3. Take a chance on Lonzo Ball
Lonzo Ball has missed the past two and a half seasons with a lingering knee injury. He's reportedly optimistic about his "brand new knee" and his chances of suiting on opening day. However, it will likely be in a limited capacity, and the Bulls will ramp up his minutes as the season progresses.
Ball is the type of player the Blazers are missing. At 6-foot-6, he has positional size and is a great defender, rebounder, playmaker, and underrated shooter. He can impact the game in various ways beyond scoring, which is what Portland's roster—consisting of multiple score-first starters—lacks.
His style of play as someone who relies heavily on his high basketball IQ to be effective on the court should allow him to adapt to the NBA after his injuries, even if his athleticism and ceiling are more limited.
Still, trading for a player coming off a significant injury is always risky, as they may now be injury-prone, face setbacks, or have a lower overall level of play when healthy. Because of that, this trade could certainly backfire and is one the Blazers should only consider pursuing if it's for the right price as a low-risk flier.
4. Trade Jerami Grant for package involving D-Lo
The Blazers are reportedly not interested in receiving D'Angelo Russell in trade talks with the Los Angeles Lakers. However, the NBA is constantly evolving, and Cronin could be more open to getting D-Lo as part of the deal if the Blazers need a point guard change.
Similarly to Simons' deal with the Magic involving Black, a Grant trade package with the Lakers would have to include D-Lo and draft capital to get a deal done, as Grant is the better and more valuable player in the hypothetical deal. Black makes more sense for Portland than Russell since the Lakers' guard is 28 years old and will be out of his prime by the time the Blazers' young core is ready to compete for a playoff run.
Russell can be inconsistent, but he's still talented enough as a starting-level point guard, averaging 18 points, 6.3 assists, and 3.1 rebounds on 46/42/83 shooting splits last season. D-Lo would also provide the Blazers with more flexibility. He could be their short-term answer at point guard, allowing them to bridge the gap and give Scoot more years until he's ready to become a starter. Or they could use one of Scoot or D-Lo as a trade piece in another deal for a young point guard.
5. Draft a point guard next summer
The Blazers could also decide to do nothing, at least this season. Going through growing pains with Scoot would allow him a whole year to prove whether or not he should be considered a foundational piece in Portland's rebuild.
Either he plays well, and the Blazers feel comfortable moving forward. Or he doesn't show progression from his rookie season; in that worst-case scenario, the Blazers would likely have a record toward the bottom of the league and would be well-positioned to have a top-five selection in the 2025 NBA Draft. Multiple point guards, including VJ Edgecombe, Nolan Traore, and Dylan Harper, are projected to be taken around that range.
Taking a point guard would likely infuriate many Blazers fans who feel they have endured multiple losing seasons with very little to show for it. But that's sometimes the risk you take as a team bottoming out.
The bottom three teams have only a 14 percent chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick, and top prospects still underperform in the NBA. Although it isn't a guaranteed strategy, tanking for a better draft pick in hopes of landing a future All-Star is oftentimes the right move to make for a rebuilding team; this especially applies to a team like Portland that has more difficulty attracting top free agents.
If the Blazers don't feel comfortable moving forward with Scoot leading the way, it could be in their best interest to take another point guard early on in the draft, especially if he's the top-ranked prospect on their board.