Portland Trail Blazers point guard Scoot Henderson had high expectations entering his rookie year as the No. 3 overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft. It was a relatively disappointing season, highlighted by the fact that Henderson missed out on both NBA All-Rookie Team selections.
It won't be a linear progression with Scoot, but there were some positive takeaways from his rookie season, such as his much-improved end-of-season stretch following the All-Star break. Still only 20 years old, Henderson has plenty of time to develop critical aspects of his game to reach that high ceiling that made him a top draft prospect.
1. Three-point shooting
In the 2023-24 season, Scoot averaged 14.0 points, 5.4 assists, 3.1 rebounds, 0.8 steals, and 3.4 turnovers on 39/33/82 shooting splits. From those stats alone, there are two glaring improvements that the Blazers guard will have to make as he continues to develop his game in the NBA. One of which is his shooting efficiency, specifically his three-point shooting.
The average for an NBA point guard to shoot from beyond the arc is 35.2 percent. At 32.5 percent on 4.3 attempts a game last season, Henderson is considered a below-average three-point shooter for his position. Shooting isn't a strength at this point in his career, but it's incredibly early on in his career, and he seems committed to improving that aspect of his game.
If he wants to become an All-Star level point guard, then Henderson needs to be, at the very least, a league-average shooter. Consider the point guards to receive an All-Star selection last season: Damian Lillard, Stephen Curry, Trae Young, Tyrese Maxey, Jalen Brunson, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Haliburton. None of them finished the season below the league average in three-point percentage, and both Curry and Brunson shot over 40 percent.
The NBA has evolved to emphasize shooting and floor spacing now more than ever. Henderson needs to develop into a consistent three-level scorer if he wants to be the face of the Blazers' franchise.
2. Finishing in the paint
Henderson's strength is using his ballhandling skills and quick first step to get by his defender and attack the paint; it's primarily what made him a top prospect in the 2023 NBA Draft. That aspect of his game should continue to improve, too, as he becomes more of a three-point shooting threat, opening up the floor more.
Scoot is excellent at creating what should be high percentage looks for himself at the rim, but he needs to improve his finishing ability to capitalize on these opportunities. Here is a breakdown of Henderson's attempts in the paint:
- Less than five feet: 46.4%
- 5-9 feet: 28.4%
- 10-14 feet: 40.4%
Between these three combined distances, Henderson averaged three makes on 7.1 attempts per game (42.2 percent).
Scoot will need to figure out how to improve his finishing in the coming seasons. The paint may be even more crowded next year after the Blazers moved one of their best shooters, Malcolm Brogdon, and drafted UConn big man Donovan Clingan, making a total of four centers currently on their roster.
Henderson has all the physical tools to be that Derrick Rose point guard archetype, which is encouraging for his All-Star potential. But he has a long way to go in terms of finishing and fully taking advantage of his elite athleticism.
3. Decision-making/limiting turnovers
To Henderson's credit, this area of improvement applies to practically every point guard entering their second NBA season, as point guards typically take longer to transition to the next level than other positions. Nonetheless, it's a key area that Scoot will need to improve in order to be the primary ballhandler and offensive initiator for the Blazers, especially if they decide to move off of Anfernee Simons and give Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe the keys to the franchise.
A team is only as good as its primary ballhandler, and Henderson is too reckless sometimes to be considered a reliable floor general. He did show encouraging signs of progressing as a playmaker towards the end of his rookie season, increasing his assists average from 4.7 to 7.1 per game following the All-Star break. But with those improved assist numbers also came more turnovers, going from 3.0 to 4.5 per game.
Henderson has excellent court vision and is a willing passer, but he must limit the risky and unnecessary passes he often made last season. However, his decision-making isn't only tied to his assist-to-turnover ratio; Henderson's inefficient shooting also had to do with his poor shot selection at times. To take that next leap, he needs to improve both in terms of maximizing (by limiting turnovers) and optimizing (through better shot selection) the Blazers' possessions.