The Portland Trail Blazers moved up to third overall in the draft lottery, but they now face a difficult decision. Victor Wembanyama is headed to San Antonio as the number one overall pick. Most consider the next tier to be Brandon Miller and Scoot Henderson in some order. Portland could take one of those two exceptional talents or trade the pick for win-now help.
They may have to deal the selection to keep Damian Lillard. The 32-year-old franchise GOAT wants to stay in Portland, but only if the Blazers are contending. The lottery changed things, but even Miller and Henderson are not going to become stars immediately. Can they afford to wait for them to develop?
Trading the third overall pick seems like a no-brainer if it means keeping Lillard, but doing so could hurt the franchise for the next two decades. It is not an easy choice, but Portland needs to make the right decision if they want to avoid a long and painful rebuild.
Ways Portland Trail Blazers trading 3rd pick in 2023 NBA Draft would come back to haunt them
5. Not enough to land a superstar
The number three pick in the draft certainly has trade value, but what can they get in return? It may net them a fringe All-Star like Lauri Markkanen or Jarrett Allen. Portland could get a DeMar DeRozan-type, who is elite but already in his mid-30s. That gives the Blazers about three years to contend before Lillard starts to decline.
The Trail Blazers could try to package the pick with additional talent to take a bigger swing, but Portland just missed the playoffs for the second straight year. Can they afford to have less depth and still make a push?
The Blazers’ path to getting a superstar is selecting one with the third overall pick and waiting for him to blossom. It could take a few years, but that is how they could acquire one.
4. Return doesn’t put Blazers into contention
Let us assume Portland trades the number three for the best possible return, does that put them in serious contention? They were 27-31 in the 58 games Damian Lillard played last season, which is a 38-win pace over the full season. If they bring back Jerami Grant and Matisse Thybulle along with adding Lauri Markkanen or DeMar DeRozan are the Blazers in the mix in the Western Conference?
That roster may get them to the playoffs, but they will not be on par with the Nuggets, Warriors, or Suns for the top spots in the West.
Things are also complicated by the competition. No team from last season’s top ten plans on taking a step backward. The Mavericks believe they will be back in the playoffs with Luka Doncic, and the Spurs and Rockets want to exit their rebuilds to move back to contention. Can Portland survive that blood bath and even make the postseason?
If the Blazers qualify, would they be favored in the first round? It appears unlikely, which means they gave up the number three pick to get bounced in the opening round in six games. That seems like a waste and adding another hefty contract would tighten the cap sheet in Portland.
3. Limits future roster building
Damian Lillard is on a supermax contract that runs through at least 2026. Jerami Grant is an unrestricted free agent, but the Blazers want to bring him back. He will command at least $20 million per season, and Anfernee Simons makes $25 million each year.
With Grant taking just $20 million, which is probably low, Blazers would be paying $89.7 million to three players. Add in another $25 million contract, and they are suddenly at $114.7 million with four players under contract.
Portland plans on keeping Shaedon Sharpe and Nassir Little, which adds another $12.5 million to their books next season and put them just $7 million below the cap with at least six more players to add to their roster. A new deal for Matisse Thybulle and a few added pieces suddenly has the Blazers up against the NBA’s new second tax apron (subscription required) in a hurry. That creates an impossible headache because it hamstrings roster building.
On the flip slide, the number three pick will make $9.6 million next season and will spend four years on a rookie deal before getting a reasonable rookie max extension, which is a bargain for a superstar. In this case, Portland would be able to use its mid-level exception and have several avenues to explore in improving its roster every season.
Having a budding star on a rookie contract is a massive advantage and one the Portland Trail Blazers need to use.
2. Closes contention window
Damian Lillard turns 33 years old next month, and there is no way to tell how many years he has left at the top of his game. Will he still be one of the best players in the league at 38 like LeBron is right now? Even King James admitted that his production is starting to fall off.
Lillard has already shown some cracks by missing games in the last four years. He wants to win now because even he is not sure how many years of greatness he has left.
If they trade the third pick for another player in his 30s, Portland has three to five years to make noise before being forced to retool. That gets shorter if Lillard starts declining quicker.
Even trading for a 25-year-old star rushes the window and puts more pressure on now. It will be a fringe All-Star meaning that player will likely quickly decline into a role player in their early 30s.
Keeping the third pick opens Portland’s contention window for the next decade. Even as Lillard ages, Shaedon Sharpe, Anfernee Simons, and the latest pick should be ready to take over and lead another run of success in Portland. Re-signing Jerami Grant helps push the window wide open, but that rests on the third pick becoming a star.
1. History says 3rd pick becomes a superstar
Recent history suggests the number three pick in the NBA Draft becomes a superstar. Would Portland like to have Joel Embiid, Luka Doncic, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Evan Mobley, or LaMelo Ball on their current roster? What do all those players have in common? They were third overall picks in the last nine years.
The other three are R.J. Barrett, Jahlil Okafor, and last year’s pick Jabari Smith Jr. It is too soon to say on Smith Jr. and Barrett has shown some flashes, which leaves Okafor as the lone bust.
Go back a bit further to find names like James Harden, Carmelo Anthony, Bradley Beal, Al Horford, Deron Williams, and Pau Gasol all going third overall since 2000. There will be a superstar player on the board when the Blazers hit the clock on June 22. Will Portland draft him?
It is why the Trail Blazers hired Mike Schmitz away from ESPN. They need to nail this pick to get back into contention, and history is on their side. If they trade it, they will be kicking themselves in five years when Scoot Henderson is one of the NBA’s best point guards.
Will the Portland Trail Blazers keep the third overall pick? Trading it could be a massive mistake, and fans should stay tuned to see how it all shakes out.
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