A few ping pong balls can change an entire franchise’s trajectory. Two weeks ago, that’s exactly what happened with the San Antonio Spurs, Charlotte Hornets, and Portland Trail Blazers, who all saw their futures affected by some good lottery luck.
While they didn’t luck out completely and get a chance to grab Victor Wembanyama, the Blazers ascended two spots and landed the third pick in the 2023 NBA Draft. Whether they keep it or not has since become an open question, but it’s worth appreciating how monumental of a coup this was for Portland.
The last time the Trail Blazers had a top three pick was 2007, when they won the lottery and selected Greg Oden over Kevin Durant. Since then, the franchise has been carried by both LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard to new heights, including 11 playoff appearances since that fateful draft night.
Now, with such a prized pick in their war chest, the Blazers look primed to make a number of impactful changes this offseason. These could affect any number of previously untouchable players and portend one of the most important summers for Portland in recent memory.
So who could be most affected?
Most Affected Trail Blazer #1: Kevin Knox II
At the trade deadline, the Trail Blazers spent most of their short-term assets to snag as many buy-low wings as they could, ending up with Kevin Knox II, Cam Reddish, and Matisse Thybulle.
These moves were done with the hope that maybe one or two of the trio could become a reliable starter for the team on the way to a playoff push, but the Blazers cratered somewhat due to that failing.
Thybulle was the same all defense, no offense player he’d been in Philadelphia, while Reddish had a slightly more efficient turn as the starting wing for the team. Both of these players have their flaws, but even with their contracts up to either a cap hold or team option, each should expect to be back with the Blazers.
Knox II, on the other hand, didn’t do anything to impress the team in his 21 games in Portland. He was still a fairly average shooter, didn’t bring anything else on the offensive end, and was a poor defender, which definitely doesn’t justify the cap hold that he has with the team heading into next season.
With Portland looking to make a massive splash via trade, they’ll need all the financial flexibility they can get. That means that, even if it was likely before, there’s no way that Knox II will be on the roster at this price next year, making him one of the most affected Blazers due to money and poor production.
Most Affected Trail Blazer #2: Anfernee Simons
Of all of the players that have been most affected by the sudden situational shift following the lottery, Simons is the best talent-wise. He’s found his name at the center of basically every trade rumor that one can imagine, to the point that the third pick and Simons as a package deal is too trite of a topic to consider anymore.
Most of this upheaval comes from the fact that Simons is both a great offensive player, and he is a poor fit for a contending Portland team. Simons averaged more than 20 points per game for the first time in his career last season, which coincided with starting every game he played in.
As one of the premier volume shooters in the league from deep, Simons developed into a guard that teams couldn’t ignore with the ball in his hands.
Sadly, he’s a small and poor defender, which is exactly what Lillard is too. Trying to play the two next to each other is a recipe for a turnstile impression on defense, which makes Simons expendable.
By packaging him with a top draft pick, the Blazers hope to reel in the type of needle movers that could help the team win a title.
Wherever Simons goes, he’ll hope to have the ball in his hands even more than before, as he always had to operate in Lillard’s shadow. While there is a path to Simons staying if Portland can swing another deal, it’s looking more and more likely that he’ll find himself swapping cities at some point during or after the NBA draft.
Most Affected Trail Blazer #3: Jusuf Nurkic
Jusuf Nurkic finds himself in a similar place to Simons, as up until the draft lottery, it looked likely that Nurkic would remain the starting pivot for the team. After the sudden luck, however, Portland appears to both want to make drastic changes and move on from players of its past.
Nurkic has held down the middle for the Blazers since they acquired him in a trade from Denver, starting all but one game he’s played in for them since 2017. He’s been a reliable scorer and screen-setter, opening up massive holes for Lillard to shine, but on defense he often leaves opponents with the same freedom to score due to his deficiencies on that end.
There have been just as many whispers about Nurkic moving as there have been with Simons, given both are poor defenders who have the right size salary to package with other players and picks to net the team a star.
While he hasn’t garnered the same feverish attention that Simons has, Nurkic is also one of the most affected Blazers in trade talks.
At this point, the writing appears to be on the wall for Nurkic. If the team can find a trade that gives them more of a defensive identity at center, whether it packages the third pick or not, it looks likely that the long time starter for the Trail Blazers will be repping a new city as Portland heads in a new direction.
Most Affected Trail Blazer #4: Jerami Grant
Until now, the Blazers have all been saying and hinting the right things when it comes to Jerami Grant’s return to the team – Grant included. There seems to be a mutual interest between both parties to continue their affiliation, but the acquisition of a top-three draft pick does somewhat change the calculus of the decision.
Grant had one of his best seasons in Portland, scoring at a high clip and cementing himself as the second or third banana behind Lillard in the pecking order. He was a solid defender, OK shooter, and cleared the admittedly-low bar that Portland had for forwards in the years since Aldridge.
Thus, instead of Grant looking like one of the Blazers who could soon see the boot out of the door, he looks to be one of the most indispensable players for Portland in its quest back to the playoffs. There simply isn’t another forward that the team could bring in outside of using their third pick, but then they’d still have a hole at a forward position with Grant’s absence.
In that way, Grant has been one of those most affected due to his upswing in good luck. Instead of heavily implied interest, Grant can now demand a hefty sum of money from the Blazers, knowing that he wants to be back and they need him back.
Simply put, after their lottery luck, losing Grant isn’t an option if the Blazers want to be good next season.
Most Affected Trail Blazer #5: Shaedon Sharpe
As the season wound down, the possibility of Shaedon Sharpe having a prominent role on next year’s Trail Blazers team looked increasingly likely. He erupted down the stretch, looking like a player who could reach his ceiling much faster than many predicted.
The luck of grabbing the third pick in the lottery has only accelerated the timeline for Portland as a team, which puts Sharpe in the crosshairs. He had a great season, albeit one that peaked late, and now will be expected to pick up his pace to the point of being a positive contributor on a playoff team.
Over his last 10 games, Sharpe averaged almost 24 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assists in a starring role. While it won’t be expected that he puts up those stats or continues to shoot 8 threes a game, keeping up the same type of production and scoring pop in a smaller role will be.
What makes Sharpe one of the most affected Blazers is the lack of time he’ll get to make mistakes in his development heading into next year. Had the Blazers not had the resources to likely grab a star and make a playoff push, he’d have had less pressure. Now the heat is on for the young Canadian to capitalize on his star ceiling much sooner.