The 2023 NBA Draft order is officially set. The Portland Trail Blazers will select third overall, barring a trade. Here’s how the top five picks played out:
- San Antonio Spurs
- Charlotte Hornets
- Portland Trail Blazers
- Houston Rockets
- Detroit Pistons
The Trail Blazers have always had the same dilemma: to trade Damian Lillard and rebuild or to trade their first-round pick and contend. It becomes even more real as Portland has officially landed the No. 3 pick.
There will be plenty of buzz regarding what the Blazers should do with their pick between now and the NBA Draft on June 22, 2023. This article explains why many Blazers fans have mixed feelings about the franchise’s direction and landing the third overall pick, highlighting three positives and two negatives about the lottery outcome.
Positive No. 1: Better than Blazers’ expected odds
The Blazers had a 10.6 percent chance of landing the third overall pick, according to Tankathon. But interestingly enough, although Portland had the fifth-best lottery odds, it only had a 2.2 percent chance of landing the fifth pick.
The Blazers had a 31.6 percent chance of their outcome of becoming a top-three pick. Although the Blazers missed out on the “Wembanyama Sweepstakes” and the No. 1 overall pick, the fact that they finished better than their expected outcome is still a reason for fans to be excited.
Brandon Roy did well representing the Blazers at the draft lottery.
Negative No. 1: No Victor Wembanyama
The suspense was killing when it became clear the Blazers were one of the final three teams remaining in the NBA Draft Lottery. While the third pick is still exciting, the expected No. 1 overall pick, Wembanyama, is a generational talent and on a draft tier of his own.
To make matters worse, the Blazers were one number away on the final lottery ball from ending up with the first pick.
The San Antonio Spurs won the NBA Draft lottery and the right to select Victor Wembanyama with the ping pong ball combo 14, 5, 8, 2.
— Ben Golliver (@BenGolliver) May 17, 2023
The Portland Trail Blazers held the combination 14, 5, 8, 3. They missed by just one number on the final ball.
The Blazers could have solved many issues and questions going into this offseason by having the No. 1 pick and Wembanyama without having to make a significant move. They could have continued with their confusing franchise direction, which has been to contend while rebuilding yet consequently doing neither.
Wembanyama is talented to the point where they could have contended with him and Lillard in the short term. In the future, Portland also could have retooled around Wembanyama as the franchise player. With him, it wasn’t an either-or scenario.
However, now that the Blazers missed out on the French super prospect, they will still have to decide what direction to take the franchise this offseason.
Should they build around Lillard or the third pick? Now that Wembanyama is out of the picture, it’s increasingly likely that Portland will move one of these significant trade assets.
Positive No. 2: Blazers get within the second tier of prospects
There’s a clear-cut second tier of prospects in the 2023 NBA Draft behind Wembanyama. Scoot Henderson and Brandon Miller are the two players behind him that are widely expected to be selected second and third, in some order.
Henderson is an athletic 6-foot-2, 19-year-old point guard from the NBA G League Ignite. He averaged 16.5 points, 6.8 assists, 5.3 rebounds, and 1.1 steals on 43/28/76 shooting splits last season.
Miller is a 6-foot-9, 20-year-old freshman forward from Alabama who is a great two-way player. Last season, he averaged 18.8 points, 8.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 0.9 blocks, and 0.9 steals on 43/38/86 shooting splits.
It’s great that the Blazers landed the third pick and can either have their choice of what’s available between Henderson and Miller. If they decide to trade the pick, it will be more valuable as a trade asset, too, now that teams know they can land one of these coveted prospects.
Negative No. 2: Blazers remain in “no man’s land”
Although the Blazers will now have their choice of either Henderson or Miller, they still need help heading into the 2023 offseason.
While Henderson and Miller are highly intriguing prospects that could be stars of their own, Lillard has expressed his desire for the Portland front office to go into win-now mode and trade the pick for a veteran. So now, the Blazers will likely trade either Lillard or the No. 3 pick.
Another complication in this scenario is that the Charlotte Hornets landed the second overall pick. They already have All-Star point guard LaMelo Ball, which makes it more likely they will prefer Miller over Henderson.
Of course, teams at the top should go for the best available player because they typically have multiple flaws in the first place. But, if it’s close, Charlotte will likely lean toward the positional need in Miller.
Why does this complicate things for Portland?
Henderson is widely seen as a top-three pick. Point guard is one of the only positions Portland doesn’t need, as they already have Lillard and Anfernee Simons, so the pressure to trade the pick or Lillard will be even more intense if the first two picks are Wembanyama and Miller.
Positive No. 3: Blazers have enough assets to trade for co-star
The good news is that the third pick is a great asset in any potential trade package. As mentioned earlier, the third pick ends the consensus second tier of Miller and Henderson.
Teams intrigued by whichever player remains between the two could be willing to give up a lot more now that Portland has the third pick rather than their mystery first-round pick with the fifth-best odds. Now that there’s certainty around the selection and teams know that one of Miller or Henderson will be available, the pick gains more value in any potential trade.
A package of the third overall pick, Simons, possibly Shaedon Sharpe, and other future picks, would be enough assets to land a co-star to pair with Lillard.
Could a co-star like Karl-Anthony Towns be on the move to Portland? It seems more realistic now that there’s a concrete pick, especially since it’s guaranteed to land one of Miller or Henderson.