The Portland Trail Blazers are entering the post all-star break portion of the 2022-23 season two games under .500, but just a half-game out of 10th place in the Western Conference standings.
A decent run over the final 24 games could get the Blazers into the play-in tournament, and with Damian Lillard on the floor, anything becomes possible in a one-and-done situation. (Or two-and-done, if Portland finishes ninth or 10th in the west. The same idea applies.)
But a not-so-decent run over the final two dozen games could get the Blazers a high lottery pick in the 2023 NBA Draft. General manager Joe Cronin used the No. 7 pick last year to grab Shaedon Sharpe, and that appears to be going swimmingly thus far.
But which direction does Portland want to go? And perhaps more important than where is how. How do Cronin and head coach Chauncey Billups – and Lillard, too – take this Blazers roster and prepare it for the future?
Here are three things to watch for as Portland kicks off the final third of the regular season.
1. Do the young guys see a significant uptick in minutes?
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Billups give his younger players a longer look, whether the Blazers are shooting for a playoff spot or not.
If Portland wants to quietly tank, then this would be the obvious play. But Sharpe, Trendon Watford, newcomers Cam Reddish and Matisse Thybulle, and even Jabari Walker have played relatively well in the minutes they’ve received.
Since the trade deadline on Feb. 9 when the Blazers roster got re-shuffled, Sharpe is averaging 14 points per game in 27.5 minutes a night. He’s tied with Anfernee Simons for third on the team in scoring and is playing barely less than three fewer minutes than Portland’s starting two-guard.
The 19-year-old rookie is shooting nearly 60 percent from the floor and is hitting 57.1 percent from three on almost 5 attempts per game during that span. It’s a small sample size of only three games, but Sharpe is taking advantage of his extra opportunities.
Reddish is averaging 11.3 ppg in 23.1 mpg and is connecting on 41.2 percent of his 5.7 3-point attempts per night.
Thybulle has started both games he’s played in since arriving in Portland. He provided an instant spark defensively, but he’s also shown an offensive game he never displayed before he was acquired from the Philadelphia 76ers.
The two-time Second-Team All-Defense guard is hitting his 4.5 threes a game at a 44 percent clip.
The 6-foot-8 Watford has been pressed into playing center since Jusuf Nurkic went down on Feb. 3. He’s averaged 8.9 ppg, 3.6 rebounds, and 21.2 minutes a night. He poured in 21 points on 9-of-12 shooting in a win over the Washington Wizards the night Nurk went down.
Giving the young guys minutes is important on two fronts. One, it’s critical to see what players like Reddish and Thybulle can do, as they’re restricted free agents after the season. Handing more minutes to Sharpe will only accelerate his development.
And two, pulling back on Lillard’s workload and giving more possessions and shots to other guys would – theoretically – increase Portland’s chances of grabbing a higher lottery selection (although Billups and Cronin may have to literally fight Dame on that one).
2. How does Portland manage its injury situation?
Nurkic has only played two minutes in February after injuring his calf. After he received an MRI, it was announced that he would be back sometime after the all-star break.
Simons suffered a Grade 2 ankle sprain after landing on Wizards forward Kyle Kuzma’s foot during the third quarter of Portland’s Valentine’s Day loss to Washington.
For reference, Justise Winslow was also diagnosed with a Grade 2 ankle sprain. He was injured on Dec. 21 and wasn’t expected back until late January. He still hasn’t returned, and it’s the final week of February.
Assuming Simons has a similar timetable as Winslow – about a month between injury and return – Ant wouldn’t hit the floor again until mid-March. If he returns in exactly a month, on March 14, he would have missed 10 games and there would be 14 left in the regular season.
If the Blazers are falling out of the play-in race by that point, the team will likely be extra careful with Simons.
There have been no updates on Nurk’s return – only the original “sometime after the all-star break.” But considering where Portland is in the standings and the way he’s played this year, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Blazers take their time bringing their starting center back.
Jerami Grant missed the last two games before the break in concussion protocol, as well.
Portland’s franchise strategy for the rest of the season will be abundantly clear based on how long the Blazers decide to keep three-fifths of their starting lineup on the shelf.
3. Is there a dramatic playoff push or a muted tank job?
The organization will be showing its hand based on its answers the first two questions.
The more cautious Portland is in bringing Simons, Nurkic, and Grant back from injury, the more apparent it will become that the Blazers are aiming for a draft pick, not the playoffs.
Ditto with the workload of the younger players. If Sharpe keeps getting close to 30 minutes a night and his shot attempts continue to rise (which should happen anyway, really) and Reddish and Thybulle get more involved, chances are Portland is playing for the offseason.
Those three are good enough to help the Blazers win games; it’s not a certainty that lowering Lillard’s workload and increasing that of the others will lead to a load of losses.
But at the very least, it will signify Portland is readying itself for the future rather than the present.