Going into NBA all-star weekend, the Portland Trail Blazers sit at 28-30 and only a half-game outside of the play-in tournament. If the season ended today, the Blazers would have the 11th overall pick, giving them a 9.4 percent chance at a top 4 pick and a 2 percent chance at the No. 1 overall pick.
With the New York Knicks currently sixth in the Eastern Conference standings, the Blazers would also have the 22nd overall pick that New York sent to Portland in the Josh Hart trade (which is lottery protected).
Blazers general manager Joe Cronin’s trade deadline goal was to acquire assets to use this summer to acquire a star who can propel his team to an NBA championship.
In a story written by Jason Quick of The Athletic the day after the deadline, Cronin said:
"We’re borderline anxious to push all of our chips in. We cannot wait for that moment to happen, it just hasn’t come up yet. It’s my job to be the voice of reason, to be very diligent to not make a big mistake, to not get the wrong guy, to not overpay, to not give up on somebody that could eventually become a really good player. I’ve got to be really smart about this because it’s trying to thread a really thin needle here. We don’t have room for error, we need to get this right. We wanna maximize Damian’s time."
With the goal of building a contender by acquiring another star to pair with Damian Lillard in mind, here are three possible outcomes, ranked from best to worst, for the rest of the Trail Blazers season.
Blazers miss the playoffs, Knicks make the playoffs
This is the best-case scenario from an asset standpoint.
If the Blazers miss the playoffs and the Knicks make the playoffs, then the Blazers find themselves with two first-round picks in the upcoming NBA draft.
Portland could possibly send the Knicks pick to the Bulls in exchange for removing the protections on the Blazers’ own pick that’s owed to Chicago and is lottery-protected through 2028, which would allow them to trade future first-round picks again beginning next year.
Doing so would unlock their draft pick capital and give them a lot of options to acquire a star via trade in the offseason.
The Blazers would also have a collection of young talent to offer to any potential trade partner in Nassir Little, Anfernee Simons, Shaedon Sharpe, Cam Reddish, and Matisse Thybulle.
If Portland is out of playoff contention, it can also give more minutes to the likes of Reddish, Thybulle, and Kevin Knox to see who is worth retaining. They can also give more minutes to Sharpe, Little, Jabari Walker, and Trendon Watford to help accelerate their growth.
Blazers and Knicks make the playoffs
This is another scenario that would benefit the Blazers. They would send their pick to the Bulls and keep the Knicks pick, which would satisfy the Stepien Rule that states teams cannot trade consecutive first-round picks.
This again would allow Portland to trade future first-rounders, as their pick owed to Chicago would convey. Although it isn’t optimal from an asset collection perspective, making the playoffs with the current squad likely helps the Blazers in a few key ways.
To start, making the play-in tournament will give this young Blazers group some much-needed playoff experience. Winning the play-in tournament and entering the playoffs as the No. 8 seed would be a huge moral victory for this team.
That energy could be carried into next season with another star on the roster to help propel them to a better playoff seed.
Making the playoffs with this squad will make it easier to convince a star that the team is only a piece or two away from being a true contender. Part of the reason that Kevin Durant wanted to play for the Phoenix Suns is that he could be the missing piece that could win he and Phoenix a championship.
As it stands, the sentiment is that the Blazers are likely a couple of pieces away from true contention, but making the playoffs would change that.
Re-signing Jerami Grant would be a lot easier if the Blazers can give him a taste of the playoffs. Grant may re-sign with the Blazers regardless of how this season finishes, but showing him that the team is close to contention will go a long way toward making his re-signing easier.
Blazers make the playoffs, Knicks miss the playoffs
If this scenario plays out, the Blazers end up with no first-round picks in the 2023 NBA Draft and the Knicks pick turns into four future second-round picks. This gives the Blazers the least amount of asset capital to negotiate with if a star becomes available this offseason.
The silver lining remains that the Blazers would get playoff experience, become a more attractive destination for a star, and have an easier time re-signing Grant; but the lack of assets will make it far more difficult to bring in a star player.
There aren’t many bonafide stars set to become free agents this offseason, so having the ability to trade for one is critical to the Blazers’ ability to contend with Lillard in the next season or two.