For the first time in a while, the Portland Trail Blazers are entering the trade deadline as bonafide sellers.
Last season, the Blazers straddled the boundary between buyers and sellers, attempting to keep Damian Lillard satisfied without emptying the chest of future assets they would need to build around an emerging young core.
Although the Blazers have since turned the page on the Lillard era, they have retained a group of veterans whose experience and skill set should appeal to contending teams. Malcolm Brogdon has reportedly drawn the interest of the New York Knicks, the Dallas Mavericks “have kept tabs” on Jerami Grant, and the Milwaukee Bucks see Matisse Thybulle as a potential target.
What should the Trail Blazers target most at the NBA trade deadline?
Cronin’s previous trades of veterans have demonstrated his willingness to sell, but reports indicate that the asking prices will be high for Brogdon and Grant, both of whom the Blazers value on the court and in the locker room.
In a market oversaturated with buyers, Cronin could capitalize on teams’ desperations to improve. If he chooses to trade his team's veterans, he will likely have a host of options, making it important to evaluate what the franchise's priorities should be in any such deals.
Here are three things Cronin should be targeting if he makes any deadline moves.
1. Draft Picks
After acquiring the Golden State Warriors' 2024 first-round pick in the deal that sent Jrue Holiday to the Boston Celtics, Portland could end up with two lottery picks in this year’s draft if the Warriors’ struggles keep them out of the playoffs.
Aside from a protected pick Portland owes the Chicago Bulls, the Blazers control their future first-round picks, in addition to Boston and the Milwaukee Bucks' 2029 first-round picks acquired in the Lillard and Holiday trades.
The blueprint for teams that trade superstars is clear: Load up on draft picks and acquire as much young talent as possible. Teams still in the process of developing their talent base have benefited from stockpiling draft picks, prioritizing quantity of picks over quality given the uncertainty of prospect evaluation.
For example, among the bounty of picks the New Orleans Pelicans acquired from trading Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday, the team hit on draft picks Trey Murphy III in the middle of the first round and Herb Jones in the second round.
The Oklahoma City Thunder replenished their talent base after the Russell Westbrook era ended by stockpiling picks. The Thunder’s core of homegrown players - Jalen Williams, Lugentz Dort and Chet Holmgren, among others - have catapulted the team into contention.
Portland’s full return for Lillard delivered the team a combination of draft picks and veterans. The first half of this season has revealed that the group of veterans the team assembled isn’t talented enough to continue building around.
Instead, Cronin’s focus should shift to building along the same timeline as Shaedon Sharpe, Anfernee Simons and Scoot Henderson, three players who have flashed their potential as building blocks despite growing pains.
The success of the Thunder this year crystallizes why building through the draft is a sound approach to rebuilding. Young players on cost-controlled contracts maximize a team’s flexibility to make trades, take on bad salaries to acquire assets and make reasonable plays at young free agents.
Acquiring multiple first-round picks from Lillard trade is a good start, but look for Cronin to prioritize draft capital in his negotiations with buyers ahead of this year's trade deadline.
2. Salary Cap Relief
Acquiring multiple veterans from last offseason's trades gave the Blazers a chance at remaining competitive, but it also meant that Portland’s salary cap flexibility would be limited relative to most rebuilding teams.
Deandre Ayton, Malcolm Brogdon and Robert Williams III have multiple years left on their contracts. Jerami Grant re-signed to a five-year deal over the summer. Portland retained Matisse Thybulle for an additional three years.
There are benefits to keeping a group of veterans around developing players. Brogdon offers mentorship for Sharpe and Henderson, and Ayton provides them with a capable pick-and-roll partner.
However, the initial years of a team’s rebuild are often the most crucial to managing salary cap space. When franchise building blocks are still signed to rookie-scale contracts, the window remains open for significant talent acquisition through free agency. That window quickly closes once rookie-scale contracts convert to higher-value contracts.
Failing to capitalize on this window can hinder team-building (as Portland experienced when it used its last remaining year of plentiful cap space in the Lillard era on an underwhelming combination of Evan Turner, Allen Crabbe and Meyers Leonard.)
In addition to opening up the possibility of acquiring a big fish in free agency, salary cap flexibility allows a rebuilding team to be opportunistic in beating out the offers of more competitive teams with less money. For example, despite the Denver Nuggets’ desire to bring back Bruce Brown, the Indiana Pacers’ cap space enabled them to price out the reigning champs.
The Pacers recently turned Brown into Pascal Siakam, illustrating the rewards of being opportunistic in the free agency market.
Cap flexibility can be used to acquire draft picks as well. Taking on bad salaries in exchange for draft compensation is part of how the Thunder have stockpiled picks.
Cronin still needs more time to evaluate what players the Blazers should build around, but salary cap flexibility creates opportunities regardless of which direction he decides to pursue.
3. Young Size
Portland’s young core is small.
Scoot, Simons and Sharpe are all guards whose size will limit their impact defensively. Toumani Camara’s emergence as a rotation-caliber forward helps, but Portland’s future depends on Cronin’s ability to surround his trio of young guards with size.
At 25 years old, Ayton offered the promise of a long-term starting center, but his underwhelming season means that Portland should be open to other directions with its frontcourt. Williams' injury history augments the need for the Blazers to consider alternative options at the center position.
Most of Portland’s forward and center needs will be addressed through the draft, but Cronin should be opportunistic in trades involving the Blazers’ veterans this deadline.
The Pacers, a team that established itself as a buyer by trading for Siakam, could benefit from a defensive-minded wing like Thybulle or a steady guard like Brogdon. Perhaps Obi Toppin, a player Indiana may be more willing to move after acquiring Siakam, could be made available to the Blazers.
Could the Houston Rockets, another team that’s switched gears into win-now mode, make Cam Whitmore available in a trade for more veteran help? Is there a way for Portland to convert one of its veterans into Chris Boucher, a stretch big who reportedly is a likely trade candidate?
Young forwards with size are valuable, so there’s no guarantee that trades available to Cronin will enable him to supplement his young core with size, but he should jump at the chance if a big wing or young center enters the trade market.