NCAA tournament. Tanking. March. These all add up to one thing for teams like the Portland Trail Blazers: The 2024 NBA Draft.
While certain teams jockey for playoff seeding during the final weeks of the regular season, the Blazers will be jockeying for draft position - specifically the best possible odds at landing the No. 1 pick in this year's draft lottery.
How does the lottery work and what do the reverse standings look like as of March 22?
How does the NBA draft lottery work?
The 14 NBA teams that miss the playoffs are eligible for the draft lottery. The system changed in 2019 to try and prevent teams from blatantly tanking; to that point, the team with the NBA's worst record was guaranteed the best odds at landing the No. 1 overall selection.
Now, the teams with the three worst records in the league all have an equal 14 percent chance of landing the top pick.
Here are the chances each of the 14 non-playoff teams has at landing No. 1, in ascending order from worst regular-season record to best:
- Team 1: 14.0%
- Team 2: 14.0%
- Team 3: 14.0%
- Team 4: 12.5%
- Team 5: 10.5%
- Team 6: 9.0%
- Team 7: 7.5%
- Team 8: 6.0%
- Team 9: 4.5%
- Team 10: 3.0%
- Team 11: 2.0%
- Team 12: 1.5%
- Team 13: 1.0%
- Team 14: 0.5%
Updated 2024 NBA Draft lottery odds (as of March 22)
1. Washington Wizards (12-58) 14%
2. Detroit Pistons (12-57) 14%
3. San Antonio Spurs (15-54) 14%
4. Charlotte Hornets (17-52) 12.5%
5. Portland Trail Blazers (19-50) 10.5%
6. Memphis Grizzlies (23-47) 9.0%
7. San Antonio Spurs - via Toronto Raptors (23-46) 7.5%
8. Houston Rockets - via Brooklyn Nets (26-44) 6.0%
9. Utah Jazz (29-41) 4.5%
10. Atlanta Hawks (30-39) 3%
11. Chicago Bulls (34-46) 2%
12. Oklahoma City Thunder - via Houston Rockets (34-45) 1.5%
13. Portland Trail Blazers - via Golden State Warriors (36-32) 1.0%
14. New Orleans Pelicans - via Los Angeles Lakers (37-32) 0.5%