It's seemingly inevitable that the Portland Trail Blazers will be active this offseason. Barring a move, the Blazers are projected to be in the luxury tax and first apron. Malcolm Brogdon is a likely trade candidate, but general manager Joe Cronin has multiple other options to consider.
The following teams have made questionable acquisitions at some point throughout their respective rebuilding processes. The Blazers must learn from these mistakes and have a clear sense of direction as they consider how their offseason moves impact their future.
Team No. 1: Houston Rockets
Moves Houston made: Signing Dillon Brooks and Fred VanVleet
The 2019 Chris Paul for Russell Westbrook trade is indirectly tied to the Dillon Brooks and Fred VanVleet signings. As a result of that trade, the Oklahoma City Thunder have the Rockets’ first-round pick this year, which turned out to be No. 12 overall. The Rockets were more incentivized to accelerate their rebuild and sign Brooks and VanVleet to massive contracts because they didn’t have their pick this year, meaning they had no reason to have a bad season.
To the Rockets’ credit, they have the No. 3 pick from the Brooklyn Nets due to the 2021 James Harden trade (which seems much longer ago due to how much the NBA landscape has changed since then).
However, the critisicm is more about how they accelerated their rebuild after the superstars left.
While it makes sense to try and compete for a playoff spot in a year where they didn’t have their pick, they sacrificed their rebuilding upside by signing VanVleet and Brooks to respective three and four-year deals. This season, it doesn’t seem significant because they have the Nets’ No. 3 overall pick. Still, in the coming years, the Rockets are not good enough to contend but not bad enough to get a better chance at a top pick.
What this means for Portland: Don’t accelerate the rebuild too soon.
This differs from the Rockets’ route to accelerating their rebuild, but the same premise. Houston signed veterans to massive contracts to help them win. The Blazers are taking more of an internal approach, hoping they already have enough on their roster to make a significant jump next season. They should be better next season, largely because they will be healthier, but also with the development of Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe.
In the Blazers context, Jerami Grant is their version of VanVleet and Brooks. Grant signed a massive five-year, $160 million deal last offseason. He's arguably Portland's best player and may help them finish close to a .500 record next season, but he isn't a "needle mover."
The Blazers must avoid this .500 record scenario entirely and move on from Grant, giving them a better draft spot in the coming seasons and more financial flexibility. That way, the Blazers can add another player to their roster when the time is right to try to contend.
Team No. 2: Toronto Raptors
Moves Toronto made: Trading for Jakob Poeltl, trading away Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby too late
The Toronto Raptors would have the No. 8 overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. That is if they didn’t trade their first-round pick to get Jakob Poeltl, one of the most average centers in the league. It was a puzzling move at the time. Teams were monitoring the Raptors to see if they would be sellers and move their bigger pieces like Siakam and Anunoby to jumpstart a rebuild. Instead, they went in the opposite direction, but in a relatively meaningless way, while giving up a significant draft asset.
They finally decided to trade away Siakam and Anunoby this year, but it wasn't peak value for either player. While Toronto got real assets back in both deals, it seems like the Pacers and the Knicks got the better end of each deal.
What this means for Portland: Whether rebuilding or contending, have a clear sense of direction. If you’re rebuilding, trade veteran assets when they are at peak value.
The Blazers have a lot of parallels to where the Raptors were a few seasons ago. In the Blazers case, they should trade veteran pieces such as Jerami Grant, Malcolm Brogdon, and Matisse Thybulle. The Raptors finally decided to retool around Scottie Barnes and their younger players. Portland must do the same around Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, and Toumani Camara.
Portland must stop straddling the line between rebuilding and keeping valuable veterans around. The Raptors are a prime example of a team prolonging its inevitable roster overhaul. They eventually came to terms with it this year but didn’t maximize the assets they could have gotten in return had they done it earlier.
Team No. 3: Chicago Bulls
Moves Chicago made: Trading for Nikola Vucevic, signing Lonzo Ball and DeMar DeRozan
In 2021, the Chicago Bulls leveraged their long-term assets to try and contend for a championship, and it backfired. The Bulls traded Wendell Carter Jr., Otto Porter Jr., and two first-round picks to the Orlando Magic for Nikola Vucevic and Al-Farouq Aminu. One of those first-round picks turned into Franz Wagner, who would have been an ideal rebuilding piece had they decided to go in the other direction. They also acquired DeMar DeRozan and Lonzo Ball in sign-and-trades. DeRozan on a three-year, $85 million deal, and Ball on a four-year, $85 million.
Since the win-now moves, the Bulls have finished with the following regular season records:
- 2021-22: 46-36 (6th in the East)
- 2022-23: 40-42 (10th in the East)
- 2023-24: 39-43 (9th in the East)
Especially given Lonzo Ball’s unfortunate injury history as of late, the Bulls are nowhere near close to making a deep playoff run. It was evident their trio experiment would not be successful at the end of the 2021-22 season, and they still kept relatively the same roster the following two seasons.
What this means for Portland: Don’t get stuck in mediocrity.
The Bulls have a few promising up-and-coming pieces, such as Coby White and Patrick Williams. They can also trade Zach LaVine for younger assets, but for the most part, they are pretty stuck in their current situation as an average basketball team.
The Blazers should use the Bulls as an example of why it’s important not to go all in unless you are truly ready to contend. As Henderson and Sharpe continue to progress, it will be tempting to add another piece to make the Blazers playoff-relevant again. It’s important not to sacrifice the future to make the playoffs. The Blazers should “trust the process” and continue rebuilding primarily through the draft.