The 2024 NBA Draft order is official following the lottery. The Portland Trail Blazers secured two lottery picks, No. 7 and No. 14.
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The Atlanta Hawks had a three percent chance of winning the first overall pick. Since the draft lottery started in 1985, only four teams have had slimmer odds and gone on to win the first pick. It’s the fourth time the Hawks have earned the No. 1 overall pick, but the first time they’ve won it in the draft lottery era.
Going by percentages, the Trail Blazers were unlucky with the draft lottery results. Portland had the following odds going into the lottery, according to Tankathon:
- Pick No. 1: 13.2 percent
- Pick No. 2: 12.8 percent
- Pick No. 3: 12.3 percent
- Pick No. 4: 11.7 percent
- Pick No. 5: 6.8 percent
- Pick No. 6: 24.6 percent
- Pick No. 7: 16.4 percent
- Pick No. 8: 2.2 percent
3. Teams picking ahead of the Blazers have similar needs
The Portland Trail Blazers and Charlotte Hornets tied for the third-worst record in the league at 21-61. However, the Blazers lost the "coin flip," meaning the Hornets obtained a 13.3 percent chance at the top pick while Portland had a 13.2 percent chance. The significance wasn't really about the odds. Charlotte and Portland fell out of the top four, meaning the Hornets jumped ahead to pick six.
With the Hornets now selecting at six and the Detroit Pistons at five, the Blazers could find themselves at the end of a run on forwards. Both Detroit and Charlotte currently have roster constructions similar to Portland's. All three teams were in the bottom ten in the league last season in three-point percentages, and all have similar strengths and weaknesses from a positional standpoint.
The Pistons will likely build around their point guard and center combination of Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren. At the same time, the Hornets have something similar brewing between LaMelo Ball and Mark Williams. Cunningham and Ball are both All-Star level point guards, and Duren and Williams took a giant leap this past season to prove they are worthy young starting centers to build around.
Even the Rockets at pick No. 3 and the Spurs at picks No. 4 and No. 8 have secured their center positions between Alperen Sengun and Victor Wembanyama. If the Atlanta Hawks and Washington Wizards don't select two-time National Champion center Donovan Clingan in the first two picks, then, barring a trade, he could fall as late as No. 9 to the Memphis Grizzlies. Interestingly, no other team needs a center until then.
Portland has its own point guard and center combination, which showed promise towards the end of the season with Scoot Henderson and Deandre Ayton.
Ayton had a very up-and-down first season in Portland. He drastically improved post-All-Star break and looked like a completely different player, being more comfortable, aggressive, and getting to his spots. Henderson also had his share of ups and downs, as expected from a rookie acclimating to the NBA level of play.
However, like Ayton, he seemed more comfortable in the Blazers system towards the end of the year. Henderson showed enough promise to consider him part of the long-term plan as the franchise point guard going forward.
2. With no clear-cut tiers, it’s not a bad year to fall to pick No. 7
The bad news is that the teams picking ahead of the Blazers likely value similar player strengths and needs. But the good news for Blazers fans is that even if the Pistons or Hornets select the highest player on the Blazers' front office draft boards, this would be the best year for them to do so.
In other words, this is viewed by many scouts and analysts as a weak draft class with no clearly defined tiers of lottery picks, at least compared to past drafts. So, although there may be a run on wings and forwards before the Blazers are on the clock for the first time, it wouldn't be surprising if the best player in this year's draft class came from outside the top five.
You could make a legitimate case for close to ten players to be a top-three selection, which is almost unheard of. For example, Colorado freshman forward Cody Williams was projected to be the No. 1 overall pick earlier in the season but has now fallen outside the top ten in the most recent CBS Sports mock draft.
Some prospects that fit the Blazers' needs include Matas Buzelis, Cody Williams, and Ron Holland. As mentioned, they also fit the needs of the teams drafting before Portland. But, even if the Pistons and Hornets draft players that fans wanted, who's to say they pan out? There are question marks surrounding virtually every prospect this season.
So this year, it may be better that Portland has two cracks at drafting a prospect that pans out and in hopes of one becoming a starting caliber player, as opposed to years past where it would be better to have one higher draft pick.
1. With two lottery picks, Blazers can swing for upside
Not only did the Blazers lose the "coin flip" to the Hornets to determine draft position, but they also seemingly lost when the Golden State Warriors received the No. 14 spot, giving the No. 13 spot to the Sacramento Kings. Both teams finished with a 46-36 record.
The Blazers obtained the Warriors pick from the Jrue Holiday trade with the Boston Celtics, in which they also sent over Malcolm Brogdon, Robert Williams, and a 2029 Celtics unprotected first-round pick. One could even argue that it wasn't that significant for the Blazers that the Warriors received the 14th-best lottery odds as opposed to the 13th because the pick was top-four protected. The Warriors winning the coin flip would've resulted in them having a 3.8 percent chance at a top-four pick instead of the 3.4 percent chance they had.
The Blazers' most significant need to address this offseason is shooting, yet many top draft prospects aren't great shooters at this stage in their careers. The elite shooters that will likely go in the lottery include French wing Zaccharie Risacher, first-team All-American Dalton Knecht, and Kentucky guards Rob Dillingham and Reed Sheppard.
Unfortunately for Portland, Risacher likely won't be available by the time they are on the clock, and neither Kentucky prospect seems to make sense in terms of fit, as both are undersized guards. If the Blazers went the Knecht route, they'd be sacrificing defense and upside, as he is already 23.
After finishing dead last in the Western Conference, the Blazers shouldn't rush into trying to contend anytime soon, regardless of Anferenee Simons' recently expressed desire to win now. With two lottery picks in a draft and many unknowns, Portland can afford to take two high-upside swings on prospects.
Multiple prospects already contribute to winning but aren't efficient shooters, which is Portland's biggest weakness. The Blazers can afford to select players that fit this mold and bet on them becoming above-average shooters, making them NBA-level starters if they reach their potential.
There is some good that comes with finishing with the worst record in the Western Conference after trading away arguably your franchise's best player ever, and that is the fact that expectations are low for years to come. The Portland front office can take advantage of this low bar by taking flyers on prospects that may need more years to develop, especially now that they officially have two lottery picks.