The 2023-2024 season marks the first time the Portland Trail Blazers will be searching for a new identity since LaMarcus Aldridge’s departure in 2015.
The 2015-2016 Blazers developed a system that revolved around the new face of its franchise: Damian Lillard. The Lillard-centric Blazers adopted a style of play that would remain relatively unchanged for the next eight seasons.
Pick-and-rolls and perimeter shooting defined the team’s strengths, while perimeter defense and offensively-limited forwards emerged as the team’s greatest weaknesses.
Lillard’s departure signals a new era for the Blazers. Aside from who will become the team’s next leader, how the team’s roster overhaul translates to a new style of play promises to be among the most intriguing storylines for the Blazers upcoming season.
The type of young players and veterans brought in by Portland’s front office provides an idea of general manager Joe Cronin’s vision for the next era of Blazers basketball. The roster is far from a finished product, but considering how the team’s core group of players could develop synergy reveals three main stylistic features that will differentiate the new-look Blazers from its previous iteration.
1. The Blazers will need to lean into more athleticism
Transitioning from Lillard to Scoot Henderson as the starting point guard downgrades the team’s perimeter shooting, but it raises the team’s athletic ceiling.
Even at 19 years old, Henderson’s strengths are predicated on his athleticism. In his summer league debut, he showcased his NBA-ready strength and explosiveness. In the G League, he cultivated an offensive game around his power, bursting through gaps in the defense and using his strength to hold advantages against trailing defenders.
As new teammates Malcolm Brogdon and DeAndre Ayton have remarked, Henderson’s most striking trait on the court is his speed.
Lillard leverages quickness and strength to maneuver past defenders, but his offensive game revolves more around his shooting ability and pick-and-roll manipulation than explosiveness. Look for Scoot to rely more on a power game as his means to penetrate defenses and spray the ball out to the perimeter or finish at the rim.
Henderson’s new teammates bring other attributes that should reorient the team’s offense around athletic strengths. Ayton and Robert Williams III, vertically explosive athletes, complement Henderson’s passing as lob threats.
Dunking extraordinaire Shaedon Sharpe showcased his ability as a backdoor and transition lob threat last season. Anfernee Simons adds elements of quickness and shiftiness.
An infusion of athleticism creates more opportunity for the Blazers to be disruptive defensively. Understanding schemes and developing awareness will take time, but Henderson’s 6-foot-9 wingspan and strong frame bode well for his projection as a defender.
His length, along with the range of Matisse Thybulle and the rim protection of Ayton and Williams, offers the Blazers a chance to clog passing lanes and protect the paint, areas of weaknesses for Lillard-era Blazers’ defenses.
2. The Blazers will need to play at a faster tempo
A more athletic roster composition offers the Blazers a chance to push the pace more than they did during the Lillard years.
Lillard’s pick-and-roll acumen consistently landed the Blazers in the upper echelon of NBA offenses throughout his tenure. Compensating for the departure of his shooting and half-court creation means that Portland should look to generate easy offense in transition.
Although Henderson presently lacks the deep-range shooting to match Lillard’s level of efficiency in the half court, his speed and vision should increase opportunities for the Blazers to generate early offense against scrambling defenses.
According to NBA.com, Portland’s transition plays were the fifth-lowest of any team’s overall possessions last season. If head coach Chauncey Billups’ message for his team to “get the ball past half court” in three or four seconds is any indication, the Blazers’ offense should revolve more around transition play.
With Henderson on the court last season, the G League Ignite played at a pace of 102.17 possessions per 48 minutes, a few ticks higher than the Blazers’ 99.78 possessions per 48 minutes with Lillard on the floor.
Without Lillard’s level of shooting, the importance of putting pressure on the rim heightens for this year’s Blazers squad. While Lillard used the threat of his shot to set up his driving game, Henderson’s offensive arsenal emanates from his driving ability.
Playing at a faster tempo is one way the team can maximize the value of Henderson’s driving ability, an adjustment that should also help fellow guards Simons and Sharpe as the trio looks to establish an identity.
3. The Blazers will need a more diverse shot profile
In the Lillard era, the Blazers leaned heavily into threes and layups, with the exception of CJ McCollum’s mid-range shooting. Last season, the team ranked second to last in shot attempts from floater range (5 to 9 feet) and mid range (10 to 14 feet).
Lillard’s shot profile of layups, free throws and threes drove efficient offenses during his tenure.
By contrast, Henderson complements his driving ability not with a strong 3-point arsenal, but with a confident mid-range pull-up game. His strong base and balance helps him change pace and flow into mid-rangers as a pick-and-roll operator and isolation scorer.
Although Henderson’s scoring game revolves around his rim finishing and mid-range shooting, his drive-and-kick game should create open threes for teammates, illustrating the diverse profile of shots fans should expect to see from Henderson’s work as the primary creator.
Henderson and Portland’s other guards developing chemistry with Ayton should further diversify the Blazers’ shot locations. Compared to former Portland center Jusuf Nurkic, Ayton thrived around the basket and in the mid range.
Ayton’s 279 shots from 8 to 16 feet far exceeded Nurkic’s 20 shots from that distance last season, and Ayton’s field-goal percentage from within 8 feet – 69.8 percent – bested Nurkic’s conversion rate of 57.5 percent.
In other words, Henderson-Ayton pick-and-rolls project to yield a greater variety of shots from inside the arc compared to Lillard-Nurkic pick-and-rolls, which predictably led to layups and threes. Simons’ three-level scoring adds more variation to the Blazers’ expected shot selection.
In the beginning of the post-Dame era, Blazers fans should not expect changes to yield positive results. Portland has no way to replace Lillard’s ultra-efficient offense.
What Blazers fans should look for is how Portland’s young core attempts to establish its identity. Returning to being a perennial playoff team will take time, but the process of figuring out how to get there starts now.