The Portland Trail Blazers will be young and likely without Damian Lillard in 2023-24, but that doesn’t mean they can’t contend for a postseason spot.
Losing the franchise’s all-time leading scorer and the best shooter Portland has ever seen is certainly a major blow. Depending on rookies like Scoot Henderson and Kris Murray and 20-year-old sophomore Shaedon Sharpe won’t come without growing pains.
But there are reasons for optimism in Portland.
The Trail Blazers could be stealth contenders for the postseason this year
Henderson and Sharpe possess out-of-this-world basketball talent, and though they’re raw, they may surprise some people around the NBA this season with how advanced their offensive games are.
And while that pair has garnered most of the offseason headlines (along with Lillard), the Blazers are bringing back two proven veterans who had career years last season and will get more opportunities to shine without Dame.
With a few tweaks and a little more luck on the injury front, there are reasons to believe Portland can make a surprise run in 2023-24. Not a run to the finals, not a run to a top-four seed in the Western Conference; but a run toward a play-in spot and maybe a place in the playoffs.
Reason No. 1: Anfernee Simons
Lillard had a career offensive year last season and remains one of the best scorers in the NBA, but some extra ball movement and balance couldn’t hurt. The biggest winner in any Dame trade – even perhaps more so than the Miami Heat (probably) – will be Anfernee Simons.
Simons was the team’s second-leading scorer behind Lillard and broke out as one of the league’s best offensive guards last year. He scored 21.1 points per game and dished out 4.1 assists a night. He was a slightly more efficient shooter from deep than Lillard (37.7 percent to 37.1 percent) while approaching double-digits in attempts (9.1).
All this while Dame had a 33.1 percent usage rate – the seventh highest in the league. Simons’ usage rate of 25.5 ranked 73rd.
Henderson and Sharpe will certainly get their touches, but as the Blazers’ best and most advanced offensive player, Simons should get up a ton of shots and have the opportunity to raise his numbers across the board.
The fact that Scoot is a more willing facilitator than Lillard shouldn’t hurt, either. Dame can beat defenders off the dribble and get into the paint, but he does so looking to score. Not only is Henderson more explosive and able to get past defenders better than Lillard, he’s more likely to draw the defense and kick out to open shooters.
Enter Simons, who was in the 80th percentile of all spot-up shooters in the NBA last season.
Simons had a breakout year in Portland in 2022-23, but he’s about to have a league-wide breakout in ’23-24 on his way to a potential all-star berth.
Reason No. 2: Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe are more ready than you think
Scoot showed at the 2023 NBA Summer League in Las Vegas that he has a more advanced game than most 19-year-old rookies – and he should, considering he started playing professionally with the G League Ignite at age 17.
It became clear in less than three quarters that Henderson has the intelligence and physical abilities to run an NBA team from day one. He’s not prime Chris Paul yet, but he’s beginning a similar trajectory.
He showed a patience in pick-and-rolls that most rookies don’t possess. He took his time, probing and reading the defense before making a decision, whether that was a pull-up jumper, a drive to the basket, a drive and kick or a pass to a big man near the rim.
At the same time, he proved just how athletic and explosive he is by blowing past defenders and scoring at the rim with relative ease.
Meanwhile, Sharpe showed at the end of last season that he already has the ability to be the No. 1 or No. 2 option on offense. He’s still raw and needs to learn the intricacies on both ends of the floor at an NBA level, but the skills are obviously there.
He still settles for pull-up jumpers and threes when he can use his athleticism to get to the rim, and he isn’t a playmaker yet. But as he’ll be the third or fourth option in Portland this year, those flaws won’t be as detrimental to what the Blazers want to do.
Regardless, the team has 19- and a 20-year-olds with unbelievable physical skills ready to contribute right now.
Reason No. 3: Veterans who can stabilize and lead a team
Sharpe, Scoot, and to an extent Simons, have ruled the internet headlines this summer when we’re not obsessed with Lillard’s future.
But the other main storyline of the summer has been the overpay of Jerami Grant, who Portland signed to a five-year, $160 million extension. It’s a rich contract – one that’s too rich for a player who’s never made an all-star team. But lost in that conversation is the fact that Grant had his best season as a pro last year and spent two years in Detroit as a No. 1 offensive option.
The 29-year-old forward averaged 20.9 ppg and added 4.4 rebounds and 1.1 blocks a night with the Pistons. Last year, his first in Portland, he averaged 20.5 points but was more efficient than he was in either of his seasons in Detroit with shooting splits of 48/40/81.
As mentioned, Simons should take over as Portland’s primary facilitator and scorer, but if Scoot and Sharpe don’t come out of the gates averaging 20 ppg, Grant will be elevated to the Blazers’ No. 2 option for most of the season, and he’s already proven that’s a role he can fill.
The Blazers also had awful injury luck last year with players like Justise Winslow, Jusuf Nurkic, Gary Payton II and Nassir Little – all of whom were expected to play significant roles – missing most or all of 2022-23.
A mid-season trade also shook things up as Matisse Thybulle landed with the Blazers and was key down the stretch, but he arrived when Portland was already slipping down the West standings.
A healthy Nurkic and Little, along with a more integrated Thybulle, are experienced NBA vets and can be expected to fill more significant roles than they did last season.
The takeaway here is that the Blazers aren’t just a couple of raw rookies; there’s more legitimate talent and experience on the roster that people seem to be forgetting about.
Yes, Portland will have many of the same defensive deficiencies it had last season. Replacing Lillard with Scoot is an upgrade on that end of the floor with Scoot’s strength, length and athleticism, but he’s not Rajon Rondo or Jrue Holiday. Sharpe is still raw and won’t be able to run an offense for more than a few minutes at a time.
But Simons and Grant are proven veterans who can handle a major offensive workload for head coach Chauncey Billups. (And Grant can be a significant defensive piece in Billups’ starting lineup again, as well.)
That quartet – along with Nurkic, who isn’t an ideal big man but can be effective enough when he’s healthy – can compete with most teams on a nightly basis. Factor in role players like Thybulle and Little, plus whatever Portland gets back in the Lillard trade, and the Trail Blazers should have a chance at fighting for a postseason spot immediately in 2023-24.