The NBA draft is always full of surprises, whether that comes in the form of trades or unexpected selections, and the 2023 NBA Draft should be no different.
In fact, this year may come with more shock and awe than most. With the number of teams that have rumored desires to move into the top three or top five plus the number of franchises that wouldn’t mind moving back or trading their pick completely for a more well-established player, it’s likely to be a fast-paced and wild night in Brooklyn.
And that movement up, down, in, and out of the top of the draft will be accompanied by the selections themselves. Teams trying to trade up for a higher pick have their gazes set on a certain prospect, while teams that trade down often have a few players clustered together on their draft boards.
Victor Wembanyama to the San Antonio Spurs with No. 1 pick is a lock. G League Ignite guard Scoot Henderson and Alabama forward Brandon Miller are the next two prospects expected to be taken. Outside of those three, though, beauty is in the eye of the beholder.
Certain players – Overtime Elite guards Amen and Ausar Thompson, for example – have been consistently placed in the top five or six of most mock drafts since the regular season ended, but the picks at Nos. 4 and 5 remain up in the air. Depending on what happens with trades, even the third pick that currently belongs to the Portland Trail Blazers isn’t 100 percent guaranteed.
What prospects who aren’t currently thought of as sure-fire top-five picks could crash the party at the top of the draft and be one of this year’s presumably many surprises?
3 prospects who could unexpectedly vault into the top 5 of the 2023 NBA Draft
1. Cam Whitmore, Villanova
Whitmore should be a lock to go in the top five, but he’s not always mentioned in the same breath as the Thompson twins, despite arguably being the better prospect.
No one outside of perhaps Henderson can match Whitmore’s pure explosion as an athlete. The 6-foot-7 forward repeatedly blew past defenders during his lone season with the Wildcats and often finished those plays by elevating up and over defenders at the rim for vicious dunks or nifty layups.
That explosiveness and finishing ability, coupled with an eye for off-ball cuts, drove Whitmore to shoot 58 percent on two-point shots at a high volume last season.
At 230 pounds, he has plenty of strength to go along with that burst, which helps him as a rebounder, both on the offensive and defensive glass. His size, strength, and athleticism also point to defensive versatility; Whitmore should be able to guard two through four in the NBA and will be able to stick with smaller centers, as well.
He flashes the handles – specifically an advanced crossover – to shake defenders off the bounce and rise up for a jumper, although his shot creation is a work in progress. He also averaged 0.7 assists per game during his freshman campaign, so playmaking is not a forte of his, to say the least.
Still, Whitmore’s combination of size, strength, explosiveness, and handles, along with the fact that he’s one of the youngest prospects in the entire 2023 draft class, point to possible superstar upside, which should put him behind only Wembanyama, Henderson, and Miller (maybe) on draft boards.
Fits in top five: Hornets, Blazers, Rockets, Pistons
2. Anthony Black, Arkansas
Black has the highest basketball IQ of any player in this year’s draft, and he puts that to use as a pure floor general and exceptional passer with a 6-foot-6 frame that helps him see over defenders.
He can make quick touch passes or drive into the lane and whip one-armed passes to open shooters. He’s also adept at finding cutters or big men for lobs if the defense gets too aggressive in helping.
He’s already an advanced pick-and-roll playmaker at 19 years old. He does a good job of using his size and smarts to keep defenders on his hip until the right opportunity presents itself, whether that’s via pass or a finish at the rim. He can set defenders up with crossovers and hesitation dribbles until a crack opens in the screen and immediately understands how to attack when it does.
If defenses get too aggressive trying to guard against Black’s unselfishness, he uses his size, length, and start-and-stop shiftiness to get to the rim. He has an array of crafty finishes through and around contact and has a knack for drawing fouls.
He’s a menace defensively. He knows when and where to stick his hand out to poke the ball away, as evidenced by his 2.1 steals per game last year in the SEC. He can move his feet well enough to stay with smaller guards but can guard one through three with his size. He’s a playmaker on defense as much as he is on offense, getting deflections and starting fast breaks.
Black’s most significant issue is his shot. His form is wonky and inconsistent. He doesn’t shoot a high percentage from anywhere on the floor other than near the basket. If his shot doesn’t improve, he still has a high floor as an exceptional playmaker and defender, but if that shot ever comes around, it opens his game into All-Star caliber potential.
Fits in top five: Hornets, Blazers, Rockets
3. Taylor Hendricks, Central Florida
Hendricks doesn’t get enough attention as a 6-foot-9, possibly 6-foot-10 forward with a 7-foot-1 wingspan who’s versatile defensively and has become a knockdown three-point shooter. His trajectory points toward an oversized three-and-D forward who can guard three through five and protect the rim. He played center in high school and dabbled there in his one-and-done season at UCF, as well.
He’s long enough and smart enough defensively to guard multiple positions, but unlike most wings of that archetype, he’s a fantastic deterrent at the basket – he averaged 1.7 blocks last season – with his above-average leaping ability, experience defending near the rim, and quick second jump.
He doesn’t bite on pump fakes, aggressively fights through screens, and sets a tone defensively for his team.
Offensively, Hendricks averaged 15.1 points and 7.0 rebounds as a freshman while hitting 39.4 percent of his shots behind the arc. He’s a three-and-D tweener; rather than playing mostly as a wing, his best position in the NBA will be a four, through he can vacillate three through five.
He can face up from the perimeter and shoot over defenders if he’s in rhythm. He’s a potentially unstoppable screener in pick-and-roll action; he’s long, athletic, and times his runs to the rim well, but he can also pick-and-pop to knock down an open shot or draw the defense out toward the perimeter.
His biggest flaw is a lack of shot creation. He doesn’t have the tightest handles and isn’t super efficient shooting off the bounce. But as a three-and-D player who can protect the rim like a center, Hendricks’ versatility and ceiling are off the charts.
Fits in top five: Hornets, Blazers, Pistons
Get ready for a wild night on June 22. Trades are likely going to shake up the top of the draft, and the potential of certain prospects being picked higher or lower than expected will be a direct result of it.
In the simplest terms: come draft night, don’t be surprised to be surprised.