By the start of the 2023-24 season, the Portland Trail Blazers will likely have a roster that has undergone significant changes from the team that finished 33-49 this year; the only question is how.
Will things look dramatically different because Portland traded Damian Lillard and started collecting young assets and draft picks? Or will the roster look different because some of its current young assets have made way for another big name or two to help Lillard push the Blazers toward a title?
It would appear the latter is much more likely than the former.
But if Portland General Manager Joe Cronin is going to give Dame a chance to make a legitimate playoff run as soon as next season, he’ll have to do some extremely quick retooling. If that’s ultimately the goal, here are four trades Cronin could make that could transform the Blazers’ roster from a 33-win one to one that can make a run in the Western Conference.
1. First things first
Before Cronin can make any significant trades, he’ll need to unlock Portland’s stable of future first-round draft picks.
Currently, the Blazers only have two first-rounders available to package in a deal: Nos. 3 and 23 in this year’s draft. Portland owes a future first to the Chicago Bulls because of Neil Olshey’s ill-advised decision to acquire Larry Nance Jr.
The pick that belongs to the Bulls is lottery protected through 2028, so until it conveys to Chicago or the protections are lifted, the Blazers can’t trade any future firsts, which severely limits their ability to make any large deals.
On the other hand, the best the Bulls can do with this selection is to land the 15th pick. If Portland plans on becoming a contender now and for the rest of Lillard’s career, this pick will likely end up landing toward the back end of the first round.
The two teams can find a common ground here. Portland can send the extra first-rounder it acquired from the New York Knicks in the Josh Hart trade to the Bulls, who don’t have any first-round picks this year.
Unless Chicago is sure this selection will eventually convey and land between picks 15 and 22, it might be best for the Bulls to just take this year’s No. 23 and not risk their Portland-owed pick falling later in the first round somewhere down the line.
2. Create some cap space, improve at center
For all the good Jusuf Nurkic has done both on and off the court in Portland, his play tailed off last season. Injuries have become a problem for the 7-footer, and he was too slow-footed and plodding to play in head coach Chauncey Billups’ defensive scheme. When he was on the court, his defensive liabilities outweighed his interior offensive production.
Portland also still owes Nurkic $17, $18, and $19 million, respectively, over the next three seasons, by which time he’ll be on the wrong side of 30. It’s time to move on from The Bosnian Beast and get younger and more athletic up front.
In this scenario, the Blazers accomplish both while also saving more than $9 million in cap space. While talent-wise Collins may not be the same player Nurk is, he’s much more mobile and versatile defensively, and Portland wouldn’t be losing much in terms of size; Collins is listed at 6-foot-11, 250 pounds, while Nurkic is listed at 6-11, 290.
From San Antonio’s perspective, Nurkic is an ideal fit next to this year’s eventual No. 1 pick, Victor Wembanyama. Despite being 7-5, the skinny Frenchman is much better suited playing on the perimeter on offense and as a roamer on defense. It would be a waste of Wembanyama’s talent to stick him on the block.
Nurkic, meanwhile, could do exactly that – be an inside presence, rebounder, and rim-deterrent while fighting the battles against NBA centers Wemby isn’t ready for, and frankly should never waste time or energy doing.
3. Get a second star to pair with Lillard
This trade was more completely analyzed here, but the basics are this:
Pascal Siakam is a two-time All-NBA player who averaged 24.2 points, 7.8 rebounds and 5.8 assists last season as the Toronto Raptors’ best player. He has experience playing second banana on a championship team as part of the Kawhi Leonard-led Raptors that won in 2019.
He’s a high-level two-way wing who can score, rebound, and playmake, which makes him an ideal fit next to Lillard.
If the Blazers can pull off a Siakam deal and keep Shaedon Sharpe in Portland, it would be a win and a huge upgrade to the 2023-24 roster.
4. Insurance at center
Collins is an upgrade over Nurkic, but Blazers fans saw last year what can happen to a team that had no depth in the frontcourt. Trading for Isaiah Stewart wouldn’t put Portland over the title hump, but he’d be a nice addition to Billups’ center rotation.
Despite being 6-8, Stewart is strong at 250 pounds, athletic, and active. He averaged more than 8 rebounds each of the past two seasons. A frontcourt rotation of Collins, Stewart, and Drew Eubanks, if the Blazers re-sign him, is a dramatic upgrade over what they had last season.
Detroit created a log-jam at center after acquiring James Wiseman at the trade deadline and pairing him with Jalen Duren, who was named to the All-Rookie Second Team this season. They also have Marvin Bagley III up front and Bojan Bogdanovic, who fits in as a small-ball four. The Pistons could easily part with Stewart while remaining two-deep at power forward and center.
These trades would give the Blazers a starting lineup of Lillard/Sharpe/Jerami Grant/Siakam/Collins. They would also reduce Portland’s total salaries by about $1 million, which would leave room to re-sign Grant and potentially Matisse Thybulle and Cam Reddish. That would give Billups the above starting five, plus Thybulle, Reddish, Stewart, Trendon Watford, and Eubanks as a rotation.
This isn’t a perfect plan, but that doesn’t exist. The Blazers would be short on backcourt depth and bench scoring, two issues that plagued the team last season. But adding Siakam would bring extra scoring to the starting five, and Portland would still have the non-taxpayer mid-level exception ($12.2 million), bi-annual exception ($4.4 million), and future first-round picks to fill those spots.
These four trades would build an unquestionably improved roster. How far that would carry Dame and the Blazers in the postseason is up in the air, but it would get Portland to the playoffs and give the team at least a chance to make a run.