Has Trendon Watford done enough to start for the Trail Blazers next year?

As the Portland Trail Blazers watch the postseason from the outside for another year, it’s time to start considering major changes to the roster. The current core hasn’t gotten the job done and as general manager Joe Cronin and head coach Chauncey Billups assess which players should stay or go, they’ll inevitably come to Trendon Watford and his future.

During Damian Lillard’s tenure with the Blazers, the team has had a weakness at the forward spot since Lamarcus Aldridge left for San Antonio. They’ve cycled through Al-Farouq Aminu, Evan Turner, Jerami Grant, and many others, with none sticking next to Lillard’s great creation and shooting.

While Grant has done well on the wing and looks likely to re-sign, that still leaves both another starting forward spot and some important bench roles to fill. Cam Reddish and Matisse Thybulle will likely compete for the small forward spot, but the bench for Portland is certainly in flux and could use some talent and stability.

Enter Trendon Watford.

What’s the scoop on Trendon Watford?

Watford was a highly recruited player out of Birmingham, Alabama, before he settled on going to Baton Rouge to play for Will Wade and LSU. He spent two seasons as a starter for the Tigers, putting up solid scoring numbers and flashing his all-around potential as an NBA forward.

Watford went undrafted due to not having any standout NBA skills, but he signed a two-way contract with the Blazers in 2021. After making a minimal impact his first year with the team, Watford surprisingly signed a four-year, team-friendly contract that gave him stability and the Blazers a potential discount if he improved.

Although Watford’s stats this year looks much like they did last year, they don’t tell the whole story. For one, he actually got to start and play extended minutes due to Portland’s ineptitude toward the end of the season.

During that time, Watford expanded his skills and showed more potential than he’d displayed his entire rookie year.

Watford simply got better in 2022-23

Watford started 12 games for the Blazers this season with most of those coming during the stretch that Lillard, Simons, Grant, and Nurkic were all shut down due to injuries. During that time, he had more production and impact than he’d had at any other point in his career as a Blazer.

On the season, Watford averaged 7.4 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 2.1 assists on solid shooting percentages. In the 12 games he started, Watford took his game up a notch, putting up 12.9 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 3.0 assists a game.

A lot of the increased production came from his shot-making inside of the arc. Although Watford improved his 3-point shooting this year, he takes a low volume of those types of shots.

Instead, Watford has a plodding mix of crafty finishes and sudden bursts towards the rim, whether in transition or the half court, where he can use his great size and finish over or through the defense:

Watford has a pro-ready frame now, with enough girth and power to bowl through smaller players and the touch to finish inside over outstretched arms. This combination of nimble feet and finishing is something that the Blazers have yearned for, but until this stretch it wasn’t a sure thing that he could contribute that on a consistent level.

Watford also showed some of his versatile passing chops this season, something he had a knack for at LSU but never got to fully explore. He can make good reads out of the short roll with both hands, puts good pace on his skips, and provides the Blazers with a new wrinkle that they can deploy off of the bench.

Overall, Watford didn’t show too much growth in any specific area of his game, but he importantly showed that in a scaled up role, he could continue to make a dent in the defense from 2-point range.

That sort of production was theoretical his rookie year, but after his late stretch this season, it looks much more like something the Blazers can rely on in the future.

What Watford could still improve on

Watford still has a few things that are holding back his game, however. There’s a reason Billups didn’t experiment with him in longer spurts until his hand was forced by the injury issues and playoff woes.

For one, Watford is still an iffy defender. While that label can be applied to most of Portland’s players, he stands to get better at moving his feet on switches, adjusting to different coverages, and using his body on defense with the same force that he uses it on offense.

While it would be unfair to expect Watford to evolve into a shot-blocker or master thief, some more production in counting stats or advanced numbers would be a marker that he’d committed to that end of the floor as much as he has on offense.

That hasn’t happened yet, and until it does, he will have a limited ceiling in terms of what he can bring to the Blazers.

Another way Watford could play his way onto the floor in the future is to lean into his role as a spot-up shooter. As long as either Lillard or Anfernee Simons play in Portland, the forwards and wings for the team will need to be capable shooters from the perimeter to properly space the floor for the offense.

Watford shot 36 percent from three during his extended starting run, but those numbers are a bit deceiving. He only shot one three per game on the season and less than two a game during his stretch run – miniscule numbers that represent both statistical variance and a lack of confidence in his shot from deep.

If Watford wants to play major minutes off of the bench for the Blazers, he’ll need to stay in the gym this summer and work on his shot. It needs to be a higher volume weapon and remain accurate, a difficult tightrope to walk; but it’s not unheard of in today’s NBA.

That swing skill will be what determines the course of Watford’s career and place on the team.

Where does Watford fit with the Trail Blazers?

With the Blazers still stuck between rebuilding and reloading, it’s hard to project exactly what the team will need. What isn’t hard to tell, however, is that Portland is going to go through substantial changes in the next few seasons to accommodate whichever plan they commit to.

That makes it hard to totally project where Watford will fit in with the team. On one hand, he’s not better than Grant and doesn’t offer the wing skills the team needs next to him to make its scheme work.

That leaves a bench role at best for him.

On the other hand, there aren’t many players outside of Shaedon Sharpe and Skylar Mays who’ve made as strong of an impression as Watford has at the end of the season. For long stretches, Watford looked like he had physically arrived and was ready to play longer stretches for the team – a major step forward from last year.

In that sense, it’s easy to see the Blazers retaining him throughout the duration of his contract. He doesn’t cost them much, gives them a player that knows their system well, and still has upside. All of those will be useful, whether the team contends or looks to rebuild.

Look a little closer, however, and there’s a convincing case for Watford to be the first power forward off of the bench for the team. He provides a notable variant to Grant, has a great nose for scoring, and still has room to grow without the same sorts of rookie mistakes.

Watford has taken the important step forward that past Blazers haven’t: shedding the “project” label and becoming a full rotation player.