With less than 20 games left for each NBA team in the regular season, there’s still no clarity on what the playoff picture will look like. Part of that is due to the play-in tournament adding some extra intrigue, but in the Western Conference especially, there are a number of teams neck-and-neck, making all games left on the schedule almost must-win games.
The Golden State Warriors, currently the No. 6 seed in the conference, are only up two losses to the 10th-seeded Utah Jazz. The Trail Blazers, currently sitting at 31-36, are 1.5 games behind Utah and one back of Oklahoma City right outside of the play-in picture.
Although it’ll be a mad dash to get to the playoffs, the Blazers are most certainly not out. They still have Damian Lillard playing at an All-NBA level, traded for some added wing depth, and have gotten reinforcements like Anfernee Simons and Jusuf Nurkic back from injury.
When looking at the stretch run for Portland, it certainly won’t be easy to make the playoffs as they match up with teams like the Celtics, Clippers, Grizzlies, Knicks, and Kings, some of whom they’ll play multiple times.
With that in mind, here are the five most important games for the Trail Blazers to win if they’re going to make the playoffs.
Must-Win #1: March 12 at New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans are one of the other teams that are right in the mix with the Blazers and present one of the best chances for the team to snag just a bit of separation in the standings. It took a 40-point performance from Brandon Ingram a week ago to beat Portland, and earlier in the season, Jerami Grant led the Blazers to victory in New Orleans.
In the new year, New Orleans has seen their dream season sink under the surface due to injuries to Zion Williamson and Ingram. In 2023, the Pelicans are 9-21 with only the 25th-best net rating over that stretch. That’s due to a declining defense and listless offense that hasn’t been able to get much out of their star players.
With Zion still out for at least the next two weeks, the Blazers have an opportunity to strike a blow against a team close to them in the standings who will assuredly be down their superstar. Although Ingram cooked Portland on the road, he’s only topped 30 points six times this season.
The Blazers will need to rely on Lillard even though he’s been a bit worse on the road this year, as well as Simons and Nurkic now that they’ve returned to the lineup. If they bring their “A” game, they could send New Orleans out of the playoff picture altogether.
Must-Win #2: March 22 at Utah Jazz
This is a similar situation, as the Blazers are just behind the Jazz in the West standings. Few people actually expected Utah to be in this position this late into the season, but they’ve ridden a breakout performance from first-time all-star Lauri Markkanen into the play-in picture.
It’s not going to be easy for them to keep that up, however, as they face the third-toughest remaining schedule in the NBA. Given the Blazers face a similarly difficult slate of games remaining, it’s imperative that the team gets the upper hand against teams of a similar caliber to themselves, given a play-in spot could ultimately come down to tiebreakers if not wins and losses.
The Blazers have won two of the three games they’ve played against the Jazz this year, but neither of their wins came easily. Simons dropped 45 points in early December, while Lillard put up one of his best performances of the year with a 60-burger in late January.
If the Blazers have to repeat a sterling individual performance like they did in those wins they certainly can, but it would benefit the team to attack Utah more as a unit than as an individual. This may also be a game where Portland’s defense carries the team to a win, as Utah ranks 28th in defensive rating since the all-star break.
Must-Win #3: March 26 vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
You’re probably sensing a theme at this point in the article, and that’s fair: all three of teams listed so far are against squads that are within a game or two of the Blazers. If it seems a bit obvious, it is; needing to beat Boston and other championship contenders isn’t a good path to follow.
That’s not to say a game against the Thunder will be easy. Since the all-star break, Oklahoma City has the 10th-best offense in the league. That’s even with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander missing a number of games due to injury; Josh Giddey and rookie Jalen Williams have both stepped up to right the ship.
The Thunder have had the Blazers’ number this season, beating them three times already – although all of the games have been single-digit affairs. SGA hit a game-winner in a December clash and if he’s unable to play, that could be the difference between a win and a loss for Portland.
Besides, it’s extremely difficult for a team to win four straight games against another opponent in the NBA. That’s what makes sweeps in the playoffs so dominating and should give the Blazers more hope that this time, especially at home and potentially without the Thunder having SGA, they can get a key win against a team above them in the standings.
Must-Win #4: March 31 vs. Sacramento Kings
The Kings have been a difficult out all season. Their league-record offense has flummoxed teams all year, and that includes the Blazers.
Portland was able to beat them in the inaugural game of the season, but when the teams met after the all-star break, the Kings hung 133 points on Portland’s porous defense. If the Blazers want any chance of winning, they’ll either need to play their best defensive game of the year or outrace the best offense in the NBA.
Or, as a third option, they can use the NBA’s scheduling quirks to their advantage. They’ll play the Kings again in the second-to-last week of the season, with both games at home. Depending on how the seeds have shaken out, the Kings may have little to play for, especially on the road for two games in a row.
That could give the Blazers a stunning chance to play against Sacramento’s backups in the second game of the homestand. If so, Portland could get an easy win that makes their supposedly difficult closing schedule that much less fearsome.
Must-Win #5: April 6 at San Antonio Spurs
It may seem odd to have this game as the last, and in some ways most important, game on the slate, but it represents a rarity for the Blazers the rest of the way: a gimme game. The Spurs are one of the worst teams in the NBA this year, and if Portland wants a chance at the playoffs, they’ll need to take care of business against an inferior opponent.
That hasn’t been an issue for them so far, as they’ve beaten San Antonio all three times they’ve faced them this year. Lillard put up 37 points in each of the last two contests, and the Blazers have shellacked the Spurs with a 14-point margin of victory across the games.
It won’t matter how much they beat them by again, as only the victory will matter – but a mark of a worthy playoff team is both how well they play against the top competition, but also how handily they dispatch the teams on the squishy side of the schedule.
It would be a disastrous and deflating loss for Portland to drop this game in San Antonio, as it may come down to just a game or two between teams who make the play-in and those who don’t. If they lose this game, this loss will likely go down as the worst of the whole season and haunt the players during their offseason spent without any playoff basketball.