Utah Jazz: 2-2
I like the Blazers against the Jazz more than this 2-2 record suggests. But Utah boasts a talented head coach in Quin Snyder, and it’s hard to predict how much better Donovan Mitchell will come into this upcoming season.
Mitchell was lethal in the back-half of the season. He worked the Thunder in last year’s first round (28.5 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 2.7 APG) and made the Jazz’s series with the Houston Rockets competitive almost singlehandedly.
And if Mitchell comes out looking like a superstar, the Blazers will need to hope that McCollum, Curry, and Evan Turner can contain him. A tough task for any player. If Turner can keep up with Mitchell’s quickness, putting the taller forward onto him occasionally could give the sophomore some fits.
But Lillard is just as deadly and often performs well against Jazz point guard Ricky Rubio. In their three games last season (Rubio was inactive for one), Lillard averaged 31 points and 7 assists.
The frontcourts appear to matchup well with each other – Nurkic/Rudy Gobert, Aminu/Derrick Favors – so watch for the Jazz to run plenty of pick-and-rolls for their big men to free them from their assignments.
If the Blazers can utilize Nurkic as a high-post passer and force Defensive Player of the Year Gobert to stay close to him, the paint could open up for cutters, especially as Favors may be forced to stay stranded with Aminu in the corner.
Collins could also prove very useful in these games as he’ll likely find himself on a smaller Jae Crowder and a less offensively inclined Ekpe Udoh, allowing for him to use his length to block shots around the rim as the help defender. When the Jazz elect to go small and keep Gobert as their anchor, Collin could also prove to help space the floor and keep Gobert away from the restricted area.
The greatest X-factor in these matchups will be Evan Turner, as he will be up against Utah’s 3-and-D specialist Joe Ingles. If Turner can be a threat from the midrange and even beyond the arc (a big ask, I know), Ingles will be forced to stick closer to him. If the Jazz choose to switch Ingles around onto McCollum and Lillard to stop their scoring, Turner could potentially punish smaller defenders in the post.
Of course, Turner will need to remain focused on defense throughout the game to prevent Ingles from getting hot from deep. As a .440 three-point shooter last season, it’s no secret that Ingles can torch opponents with his outside shooting.
Watch for the Blazers to employ volatile shooting lineups to keep the floor open when they meet the Jazz throughout the season. I’d bet Portland will want to win through their three-point shooting and attacking the rim with their elite backcourt when Gobert goes to the bench.