Apr 24, 2013; Independence, OH, USA; New Cleveland Cavaliers head coach Mike Brown smiles during a press conference at Cleveland Clinic Courts. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

The Cleveland Cavaliers have received the #1 pick in this year’s NBA draft lottery, with a 15.6% chance of doing so. This move bumped the Orlando Magic to 2^nd, while the Charlotte Bobcats missed the top 3 entirely due to the surprise advancement of the Washington Wizards, who received the 3^rd pick.

The Cavaliers were represented by Nick Gilbert, son of owner Dan Gilbert. Nick also represented the team when they received the 2011 #1 pick and future Rookie of the Year, Kyrie Irving.

This could turn out nicely for the Blazers, who received the 10^th pick as expected, because Cleveland is likely to draft Kentucky center, Nerlens Noel. With a brand new, highly touted center, the Cavs may cling less tightly to current center, Anderson Varejao. Portland is looking to trade for an established big man and Cleveland is already interested in doing business with them in some capacity. The Blazers may be able to coax them into giving up Wild Thing.

Varejao was an All-Star caliber center this year, averaging 14.1 points and 14.4 rebounds per game, until a blood clot in his lung sidelined him for the latter half of the season. It was reported in late April that the Cavs were interested in Blazer forward, LaMarcus Aldridge, but were unlikely to give up Anderson Varejao in preliminary discussions. While I do not personally condone shopping LaMarcus at this juncture, it is possible that the Cavs would be willing to make a more reasonable offer, given their fortuitous situation. The Blazers are in great need of an established defensive center.

Although Cleveland received the top pick, the real winner of this year’s lottery is the Washington Wizards. Projected to receive the 8^th pick, the Wizards jumped 5 places into the top 3, and are now in position to draft Georgetown small forward, Otto Porter. The Wizards were only a lottery team at all because their 2010 #1 pick, John Wall, missed 33 games this year while recovering from knee surgery. They now have the means to address their biggest need in style, and will likely make an appearance in the 2014 playoffs.

All in all, this worked out fine for Portland. Although they did not move up, the lottery has changed their off-season playing field, if only just a little. I’m rather content, myself, as I count myself among the minority Wizard fans. Congratulations to Cleveland and Washington, condolences to Orlando and Charlotte (seriously, how hard is it to be a Bobcat right now?).

*Toronto’s pick goes to OKC as part of the Harden deal, because it was not in the top 3.

@davidmackaypdx | @ripcityproject | davidmackaypdx@gmail.com

Damian Lillard struggled again Wednesday night, but managed to finish the night with 20 points, five assists, and two steals while turning the ball over only twice. Credit: Geoff Burke-US PRESSWIRE

I heard a radio interview withThe Oregonian’s Jason Quick back in 08-09 that I feel like might be relevant to what happened in Washington D.C. Wednesday evening. Quick was being asked, by John Canzano I think, how hard he was supposed to take it on the team he covered.

The question was framed such as to ask whether or not a veteran team should be taken to the cleaners over phoning it in one night knowing full well that a single loss in the middle of a long season has no real bearing on a team’s record or their potential Playoff position or if a young team should be blasted for making young-team mistakes knowing that the measure of success for a young team isn’t wins and losses.

Quick’s response was mostly that his coverage, insofar as how much he choose to attack the Blazers on a game-by-game basis, reflected the expectations of the team. A good team, like the 1999-2000 Blazers that would end their season losing Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals, needed to be taken to task for losing games they were supposed to win because they were supposed to win a lot of games. The 08-09 Blazers, a super-hyped up-and-coming team with almost unlimited potential, could be forgiven every now and then if they lost a close game or struggled to compete because (at the time) the future looked incredibly bright  and the present was so much better than the past.

So let’s all try to think about that when we think about how the 0-12 Washington Wizards are now the 1-12 Washington Wizards thanks in part to the fact that the Portland Trail Blazers are right now not a very good basketball team. Monday in Detroit was bad, Wednesday in Washington was bad, it seems like it can’t get much worse.

Portland shot 35% from the field, 32% from three, and 67% from the free throw line Wednesday in Washington. All of those are bad. Nicolas Batum, Wesley Matthews, and Damian Lillard have, to this point, been pretty consistent from three. Wednesday Wesley was 1-of-8 from deep. Nicolas and Damian were far better than that (5-of-10 for Nic, 4-of-9 for Damian), but they both missed long jumpers (Dame’s wasn’t a three, but Nic’s was) late in the game. Damian’s would have completed Portland’s fourth quarter comeback. Nic’s was off an in-bounds play with 31 seconds left to play and was so bad as to be offensive.

What are we to make of that? Some of it is regression. Some of it is general inconsistency from players who are known to be inconsistent. Some, for Damian, can be chalked up to rookie struggles. That would be taking it easy on the Blazers.

If you want to go hard on Portland, you could say that a huge problem with their offense was that they weren’t attacking the hoop and when they were they were doing it in the least effective way possible. You could also say the Blazers’ offense had a rough night because Portland’s back-court was loose with the ball and slow to make decisions, almost as if they weren’t really committed to Wednesday’s game. The Blazers’ 11 turnovers don’t really tell the whole story, but there were far too many possessions in the half-court that didn’t get started until 10 seconds had elapsed on the shot clock.

And speaking of not being committed, Wednesday Portland didn’t even show up until midway through the fourth quarter. A 15-point run to start the game and a 15-point run to close the game should be enough to beat a win-less and hapless team like the Wizard. Unfortunately for the Blazers there was the matter of the 2nd and 3rd quarters when they got outscored 45-32.

If the Blazers had played the Wizards to a tie for 40 minutes and then made a run for the last eight minutes, instead of playing behind for 35 minutes and then trying frantically to not lose in the game’s closing 10 minutes, there’s a pretty good chance Portland would have won this game. That’s a very small level of commitment and engagement considering the competition, but it was too much for these Blazers.

There’s another issue at play here though, and one that really needs to be addressed. Portland simply cannot play defense. It’s an issue for another day though. When things go as poorly as they did on Wednesday for the Blazers offensively, it just seems like piling on to lay into them for their defense.

I will say this though, through 12 games the Wizards shot 40% from the field and 30% from three. Wednesday Washington shot 44% from the field and 42% from three. A four percent boost isn’t that crazy, but a 12% jump is something. It’s hard to know if the Blazers’ defensive problems are due to lack of effort or poor defensive scheming, whatever it is, Washington was making shots because they were getting a ton of open looks. Portland is going to have a figure out a way to get stops, or they’re very likely not going to win very many games.

So that brings me back to my opening about how we are supposed to react to all of this. Part of me wants to say that we shouldn’t get too bogged down in this kind of loss. Washington was bound to get a win eventually, they new Portland was their best chance for awhile, they played well enough to win, and down the stretch the Blazers failed to execute missing free throws, getting empty possessions, and running god awful in-bounds plays. In the long run this loss is more symbolic than anything. Portland will recover. It’s not the end of the world.

There’s another part of me, though, that thinks this kind of showing is unacceptable. Yes the Blazers are bad, and yes I’ve come to terms with the fact that it’s more likely that I’ll win the lottery than Portland will make the Playoffs. But this team is not this bad. A week ago their starting five looked close to fantastic and their bench, though limited, was helping just enough to keep the Blazers in games and give them a chance to win. To go from that to losing to two teams with a current combined record of 6-23 is simply mind boggling. Something needs to happen, or this is going to be an embarrassing season that Portland fans shouldn’t be forced to sit through.

Luckily Wesley Matthews feels the same way. According to Joe Freeman, Wesley had some words for his teammates after Wednesday’s loss. Hopefully it will have some impact. If this season gets away from the Blazers it’s going to be hard to stomach. Unlike last season, management isn’t going to blow it up. For better or for worse we stuck with what we have. The good thing about that is that the guys that got themselves to this spot will also be the ones forced to get out of it. Reinforcements aren’t coming. Terry Stotts is not going to get fired. LaMarcus Aldridge is not going to be traded. There’s no savior and there are going to be no excuses.

The fun thing now is deciding whether or not we think the 2o12-13 Blazers deserve to bashed for lack of effort, or if it’s early enough to call this season a wash, and enjoy the fact that Damian Lillard is probably going to lock up the Rookie of the Year by the All-Star break.

Personally, I’m undecided. The Blazers very much deserve the hard criticism they will receive far and wide from the Internet (I’d recommend avoiding the Internet until Portland is back from this trip). They also should be given some leeway, we knew coming into this season (what with a thousand new guys on the roster and an entirely new coaching staff) things were going to be rough. Getting through 82 games without a major injury should be cause for celebration. Criticism that doesn’t reflect that reality is negative for the sake of being negative, in the parlance of the Internet age: trolling.

Be warned though, not a lot of Blazer fans are going to be in my camp. I’m the kind of fan who thinks Portland has a chance Friday in Boston, and is capable of a double-digit winning streak, and should things break right will make the Playoffs. No matter how bad it gets, I think it can and will always get better. The good thing is, Portland won’t play another team with a record as bad as Washington’s. By that logic, it’s impossible for things to get any worse.

I have nothing else to say about this game.

Box Score

Standings

@mikeacker | @ripcityproject | mike.acker1@gmail.com

The Washington Wizards celebrate their first win of the season at the expense of the Blazers. Photo courtesy of USPRESSWIRE

Washington’s John Wall has yet to play in 2012-13, and the Wizards are win-less through their first 12 games. Credit: Brad Mills-US PRESSWIRE

OK Blazer fans, first the good news: we’ve been here before. Way back on November 25th 2009 the 11-5 Blazers hosted the 0-14 New Jersey Nets. That night, Portland avoided the ignominious distinction of being the team to snap a double digit win-less streak by handing the Nets a 93-83 loss.

I know, that Blazer team was playing at home, was coming off a big win at home over the Chicago Bulls, and had a starting lineup that included both a healthy Brandon Roy and a healthy Greg Oden (18 points on the night from GO and 13 from Brandon). So there really isn’t a whole lot of carry-over from that game in 2009 to Wednesday’s game in 2012 against the currently win-less Washington Wizards in D.C.

How about this then. On February 5th 2011 Portland (without Roy or Oden) showed up in Cleveland to face off against the recently made LeBron-less Cavaliers. The Blazers at the time were 26-24, they’d lost the night before the Indiana Pacers, and had managed only a single win in their last five games. The Cavs weren’t winless (8-42), but if you can remember, they had lost 23 straight games coming into their contest with Portland. Not only were the Cavaliers bad, they were historically bad, or at least they were on the verge of becoming historically bad. Coming into that Saturday night game, Cleveland was one loss shy of tying the record for the longest losing streak in the history of the NBA.

Portland looked like a good target for a streak breaker. A team straddling the line between the Playoffs and the Lottery, a mini losing streak of their own, slipping back towards .500, questions abounding with regards to injuries and depth. The Blazers were Cleveland’s best opportunity for a win in a long time. Blazer fans, this one included, were scared, and rightfully so.

What happened that night? Portland got scoring efforts of 31, 21, and 20 from Wesley Matthews, Nicolas Batum, and LaMarcus Aldridge in that order, and put the 2010-11 Cavs into the history books (Cleveland would stretch their losing streak to 26 games, avoiding by one the worst losing streak in all of American professional sports). Blazer fans would all exhale.

Portland has been mired in the depths of a losing streak (if not a streak than at least a losing trend), on the road, facing a team with their backs against the wall and double-digit losing streaks, and come away victorious. Like I said, we’ve been here before. That’s the good news.

The bad news is that the Blazers are not a great team right now. Their weaknesses are exploitable, and the world is out on how to best exploit those weaknesses. Portland should win this game. There have no business not winning this game. But Washington isn’t going to roll over, just like nobody in this league rolls over for anybody else, and if the Wizards watched the Blazers futile effort in Detroit, they should probably have a good idea how best to beat Portland.

Blazers Starting 5: PG Damian Lillard, SG Wesley Matthews, SF Nicolas Batum, PF LaMarcus Aldridge, C J.J. Hickson

Wizards Starting 5: PG A.J. Price, SG Bradley Beal, SF Trevor Ariza, PF Kevin Seraphin, C Emeka Okafor

I said that the word is out on how to beat the Blazers. Here’s how to do it:

Step 1) Blitz Damian Lillard. It won’t get the ball out of his hands. He probably won’t turn it over either. What will happen though is that it will push Portland’s offense a couple extra feet from the hoop. Damian hasn’t quite developed the handle or the pin-point passing needed to thread the needle from 30 feet or effectively split a double-team head on, but blitzing Dame, especially when hedging off a high screen, is a good way to kill the roll part of the pick and roll because Damian is too smart to throw a pass he isn’t sure he can complete and doesn’t force the north-south drive. That’s part of the reason LaMarcus is shooting so many mid-range jumpers, he’s trying to make the offense as easy as possible for Damian. LA is a good shooter, and the LA/Damian pick-and-pop is a good play, but the percentages of shooting from 15 are low enough that gambling on the high screen is worth it if it keeps LaMarcus from rolling to the hoop without the ball for layups and dunks.

Step 2) Pound the paint on offense and pack the paint on defense (when not hedging out to double Damian on the high screen). Portland has no real center, or at least not one in their starting five. Teams that get into the paint on offense with regularity can and do beat this Blazer team. Not having a starting center doesn’t only impact the Blazers on defense. Portland’s offense has no way to score easily inside. When the Blazers get into their half court offense, basically the second thing a team needs to do, after blitzing Damian, is get as many big bodies as the can into the lane. Portland wants to attack the rim, because statistically it’s the easiest way to get points, but without a reliable inside scorer, that style of offense can be problematic. The Blazers have shooters, but they’re streaky. Keeping Portland out of the lane on offense and making them sit back and launch jumpers is a pretty efficient defensive strategy.

That’s how to beat Portland. The good teams have done it. The bad teams have done it. The Blazers can still win should the Wizards double Damian, force the ball inside on offense, and stack their biggest bodies in front of the hoop, it just narrows Portland’s margin for error. Against Detroit, the Blazers shot around 40% from the field and 30% from three. Those numbers have to go up if Portland wants to win Wednesday.

What to Watch For

• Can the Blazers avoid getting down early. You know that old saying? “It’s hard to beat a team 13 times in a row?” It’s a joke, of course, but there’s some truth to it. When a team of professionals get beat a dozen straight times, they probably get pretty motivated to avoid that lucky number 13. That being said, a bad team on a long losing streak can also fall into the danger zone where losing becomes familiar and expected. Getting ahead early will be a key for Portland on Wednesday. If the Blazers can build an early lead, the Wizards will probably fold it up. They’ve lost so many times that coming back from a big deficit is no longer in their DNA. Portland lost to Detroit because they got down early in that game. They can’t let that happen again.
• Will Damian Lillard have a bounce-back game. Damian’s worst game as a pro was Monday. There are holes in his game. I don’t think fortitude is one of them. I imagine that Dame will have a good game in D.C., partially because he won’t be going head-to-head with Brandon Knight (a good young point guard who sliced Portland’s defense to shreds), and partially because he’ll probably be ready to deal with the double teams and blitzes.
• Does Portland have pride in themselves. Regardless of the ad campaigns and the public display of faith in this team’s ability to compete, there’s a good chance that the bulk of this roster knows Portland is not really a Playoff team, not this year. It’s not about winning this year, it’s about getting better and staying connected. HOWEVER, the Blazers are better than the Wizards by every statistic or piece of anecdotal evidence or anything at all the matters. Do these Blazers have the pride in themselves to take a punch like they did in Detroit, another team Portland is better than, and get back up and beat a very bad team? We’ll find out this evening.

@mikeacker | @ripcityproject | mike.acker1@gmail.com