LaMarcus Aldridge battled Tim Duncan all night, but it wasn’t enough to make up for a total lack of bench scoring. Credit: Steve Dykes-US PRESSWIRE

 

Blazers had a shot to tie a game where their bench was outscored 63-4.

— KJ_NBA (@KJ_NBA) November 11, 2012

That above statistic, the one that says Portland’s reserve unit was outscored by their San Antonio counterparts by 59 points, is probably the only one anybody will remember from Saturday night’s game. And here’s the thing: it is the only thing we should remember.

Last week it felt like the Blazers’ bench was an issue. This week, they’ve become a liability. A very compelling case can be made for San Antonio as the best team in the West. They’re deep, they’re talented, and they have basically the perfect combination of super talented veterans and “triumph against the odds” young guys who are hungry to make whatever kind of impact they can regardless of what it means for their person stature within the league or their individual stats or anything that could negatively impact the success of their team.

And Portland’s starting five hung with them. In fact, the Blazers lost Saturday night by three while their first five outscored San Antonio’s starters 105-49. Take away both benches, and the home team wins in a blowout. And to be fair, that’s why Portland’s bench is killing this team right now. Sure, they can’t score the ball to save their lives, but at the same time they can’t stop anybody. A bench that can’t score is one thing, as is bench that can’t make stops. Put the two things together, and you’ve got a team that will compete for 35 to 40 minutes a night and get absolutely destroyed for those remaining five to 12 minutes. Against some of the low level teams that won’t be a problem, but against contenders, Playoff teams, and NBA elites it means a lot of frustrating nights.

I know it’s only six games in, so it’s a bit early to be repeating myself, but because of Saturday night, I think it might be better to address the bench problem sooner rather than later. The reasons for that go beyond just the clear drop-off in talent from the top five to the next three off the bench. Through six games, Portland’s starters minutes per look like this: Nicolas Batum 39.5, LaMarcus Aldridge 38.7, Damian Lillard 37.8, Wesley Matthews 37.7, J.J. Hickson 28.2. Hickson’s minutes are a bit low since he was down around the 20 minute mark against the Clippers due to some good play from Meyers Leonard. Saturday, J.J. logged 34 minutes, the least among the starters, but still above his season average.

So, for the sake of argument, let’s say that Portland’s starters are hitting between 35 and 40 minutes a night, every night. Is that sustainable? If it’s not sustainable, what does this team look like when either a starter goes down with an injury or they inevitably have to rest? In two words: NOT GOOD. As is the Blazers can win between 25 and 30 games. One, even one, of Portland’s starters goes out for any extended period of time and you’re looking at a team that has a ceiling of 15 wins.

Certainly some will argue that 15 wins is better than 30. Thirty wins puts Portland in no-man’s land. Not a high enough win total to make the Playoffs; not a low enough win total to have a real chance at pulling a top-four draft pick. I agree that if you’re going to lose for draft position, you go all out. I disagree that losing for draft position should be Portland’s goal this season. Given what the Blazers’ starters are capable of, it seems logical to play to win, shooting for the bottom rung of the Playoffs in an effort to entice off-season acquisitions with a winning record, a couple All-Star level players, and a phenom PG in the making.

Taking that route might mean giving up a few potential unknown and unknowable pieces (draft picks), but when you have a team that’s at the most two solid players away from competing on some level, I think figuring out a way to lose games doesn’t make any sense.

Portland closes this win-less home-stand Monday against the Hawks. In my November preview, I had the Blazers getting two wins over their first three at home. So far they have none. A win against Atlanta is imperative if I hope to maintain my totally overblown reputation for making good predictions.

Couple of things:

• Patty Mills got the start for Tony Parker who was scratched pregame. For the most part Damian Lillard dominated Patty. However, Patty played better than expected. Considering that at one point Mills was little more than a cheerleader in Portland, it’s really cool to see him being successful with a great team like the Spurs.
• Tim Duncan pulled a critical and one against Damian Lillard in the final minutes of the fourth quarter Saturday night. It was a controversial decision to say the least. Post game, Terry Stotts disagreed with the call, saying that at best it should have been a no-call (implying that it could have also been called a charge). I totally agree that it was the wrong call, but anybody who is surprised that Tim Duncan gets the benefit of a foul call against Damian Lillard hasn’t watched very much NBA basketball.
• Post game I asked Terry Stotts if he’d talked at all with Damian about posting up against a smaller player like Patty Mills when the opposing team runs ball denial defense. He said no, and left it at that. Maybe it wasn’t the best time to ask. However, I think it will be beneficial to Damian to add a low-post element to his game at some point. Damian doesn’t have size on a lot of guards, but when he’s being checked by Patty Mills, who can be a bit of a ball hawk, and having trouble getting the ball into his hands to initiate the offense, getting post position can be a good way to contribute offensively without having to burn half the shot clock.
• Immediately after Saturday’s game ended, and the bench scoring numbers had been tabulated, the below video came to mind. Probably because it’s the first thing I think of when I hear somebody say “B Squad.”

Box Score

Standings

Air Alamo

@mikeacker | @ripcityproject | mike.acker1@gmail

Coach Pop explains to Manu that technically yes Portland is still a professional basketball team. Credit: Soobum Im-US PRESSWIRE 4/23/2012

First, let me apologize for not getting this recap up until now, so long after Monday’s dismal Blazer performance in San Antonio that everybody with any sense has already completely forgotten about it. I’ve been away for a couple of days, but I’m back now, which is good because Monday was an important night for Portland.

Of course I don’t really mean that. Monday will go down as little more than a final speed bump on the Blazers’ downward spiral. Getting shellacked by the best team in the West (maybe even in the league) is only slightly different than losing by a single point to one of the worst teams in the West.

The important thing is that this will all be over soon. Sure Monday’s game was full of teaching moments (head coach Kaleb Canales often preaches limiting the 30-point quarter, and Monday Portland gave up at least 30 in three out of four quarters and 28 in the odd quarter out, plenty of room to teach after that), but these kinds of learning experiences have diminishing returns.

No doubt the younger dudes on the Blazers’ roster can get something out of watching the San Antonio Spurs up close and personal, but after awhile, losing by 40 every night and never competing might turn an otherwise dedicated professional basketball player into somebody actively looking for another job. Nobody wants that to happen.

It’s a bit unfair to compare a team like Portland to a team like San Antonio, they have so very little in common. So instead of talking about Monday’s Spurs’ performance in the context of taking on the Blazers, I’ll give you one thing to think about with San Antonio as it pertains to what will happen when Portland’s games are officially all over.

Monday, San Antonio played EIGHT guys off the bench. Accompanied by five starters, that’s a roster 13-deep. Every Spur that played scored. Eleven Spurs scored at least six. Six scored at least 10.

But here’s the craziest of the crazy scoring stats for San Antonio from Monday: not a single Spur scored 20. Yes this game was over by the start of the second quarter (it was 31-18 after 12 minutes), but a couple of San Antonio’s key guys logged more than 20 minutes. When everybody scores, but one guy doesn’t do all the scoring, even the mega superstar guys, that is the best indication of a balanced offense.

If we all learned one thing from the Dallas Mavericks last season, team ball wins over hero ball. But the Dallas team ball model was really a one-guy four-other-guys situation. Dirk led the way all the time. San Antonio doesn’t have a Dirk, but they do have one of the guys that’s better than Dirk at the position Dirk plays. However, that guy (Tim Duncan if you were wondering) doesn’t need to been the center of attention on every possession.

Monday, the Big Fundamental tied for team leader in scoring, but he only scored 18 points. He shared team-high honors with Danny Green (who didn’t miss a shot). When your best player doesn’t have to have the game of his life to effectively help your team win, then you’re in a good spot. San Antonio is in a good spot.

So good, in fact, that I’m saying it right now, the Spurs will be the thinking man’s pick to win the 2012 NBA Championship.

If you’re looking for a positive RE: the Blazers from Monday, I think that might be your only option. Portland just got WAXED by the best game in town.

One more game, and then it’s all over. Sorry Blazer fans, Thursday in Salt Lake City is going to be very very important to the Utah Jazz. Don’t expect Portland to have any impact on that game either.

Real quick:

• Patty Mills played 12 minutes and knocked down three deep balls. Start the Patty Back To Portland campaign…NOW.

Box Score

Standings

Air Alamo

Email me: mike.acker1@gmail.com

Twitter: @mikeacker | @ripcityproject

Patty Mills squares off against Raymond Felton. Guessing most of Blazer-land wishes these jerseys were switched. Credit: Soobum Im-US PRESSWIRE 4/23/2012

Tim Duncan is one of the best power forwards of all time. LaMarcus Aldridge might be the heir to that title. Photo courtesy of Project Spurs.

Blazers: 7-3 (2nd Northwest Division)

Spurs: 7-4 (1st Southwest Division)

Game Details: AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX. 5:30 PM. TV: CSN Radio: 750 AM (KXTG)

Projected Portland Starting Lineup: PG Raymond Felton (#5, 6’1”, North Carolina), SG Wesley Matthews (#2, 6’5″, Marquette), SF Gerald Wallace (#3, 6’7″, Alabama), PF LaMarcus Aldridge (#12, 6’11″, Texas), C Marcus Camby (#23, 6’11″, UMass)

Projected San Antonio Starting Lineup: PG Tony Parker (#9, 6’2”, Paris, France), SG Kawhi Leonard (#2, 6’7”, San Diego State), SF Richard Jefferson (#24, 6’7”, Arizona), PF Tim Duncan (#21, 6’11”, Wake Forest), C DeJuan Blair (#45, 6’7”, Pittsburgh)

Portland is about to embark on a six-game road trip, one-fewer than the total number of home games the Blazers have played thus far. This is going to be an important stretch, not just because Portland has struggled somewhat on the road.

This Blazer team has a lot of elements that it can put into play to help win games. Having said that, they have yet to land on an all encompassing identity. As John Canzano states, this team might be able to forge that identity while traveling together for a week and a half. The road is a good time for guys to bond, especially since Portland is still, in a sense, trying to get the newest pieces to become fully integrated, and to get the team to work as a well-oiled machine night in and night out.

San Antonio is as good a place as any to start what will be a grueling run in the middle of what has already been a long January that is currently only 12 days old.

The Spurs are the Spurs are the Spurs. Some teams rise and fall over the course of a decade, but not this one. Every year they are counted out–or at least every year since the last time they were NBA Champions which was 2007–and every year it doesn’t matter. They compete. And they win. Already this season their core has aged yet another year, they’ve lost Manu Ginoboli for a little while to a broken hand, and all they’ve done is win seven games and grab an early hold on the top spot in the Southwest Division.

The San Antonio Spurs are always going to be good. The best part about that, is that Portland won’t be caught by surprise. The worst part: the Blazers will have to play a tight game, make as few mistakes as possible, and dictate the pace and style of play, and even then it’s going to be hard to come out of the AT&T Center with a victory.

Beating San Antonio is going to have more to do with how Portland plays than how the Spurs play, and that’s the way it’s going to be all season. The Blazers are as good as probably every top level team in the NBA, meaning if they play the way they want to, they’ll be in any game. What Portland has to do is pretty clear at this point. ONE: Play Defense. TWO: Attack the basket on offense. And THREE: PLAY MORE DEFENSE.

The Orlando Magic game tape from Wednesday night isn’t as burnable as the Phoenix game tape. Actually watching that fourth quarter might be the kind of thing that will fire the team up, showing how this team refuses to give up even on a lost cause. Along with that fourth quarter, Portland might want to watch the first quarter, if only to see how not to defend San Antonio’s shooters.

On Wednesday, the Blazers were slow on closing out on shooters, and didn’t rotate to the rim to cut off guards and wings driving through the lane. Coming late on the help-side to protect the rim makes sense against Orlando; you leave Dwight Howard and all the ball handler has to do is toss the rock at the rim and it’s an easy two. Closing out late on the shooters is about execution. The Spurs don’t have the same cadre of gunners that the Magic do, but they do have some guys that can shoot the ball. And every wing in the NBA can knock down an open shot.

When it comes to individual player match-ups, the guys to watch are going to be Tim Duncan and Tony Parker, but San Antonio is a team, and they play a team game. Trying to stop one or two players and not everybody on the court will be a mistake.

Here’s what I’m going to watch for:

• Portland’s ability to play on the road: The road hasn’t been overly kind to the Blazers, but that doesn’t mean they can’t win outside of the Rose Garden. Beating Oklahoma City in Oklahoma City was one of Portland’s biggest road victories in quite awhile. The Blazers won’t have the backing of the home crowd should they get behind. But, again, that doesn’t have to be the difference maker. If, on Friday, Portland can harness the energy of the RG, and make a statement early, they can beat San Antonio. Beating San Antonio will make the next five road games that much easier.
• Gerald Wallace: Crash has been phenomenal most of Portland’s 10 games. He’s hit a couple snags (a zero-pointer in Los Angeles against the Clips and one-pointer in Phoenix), but nothing so bad as to say that he shouldn’t be the focus of Portland’s offense early in games. In fact, Gerald Wallace needs to score for Portland to win. San Antonio is another team that just can’t match-up with Crash. Give him the ball, let him go to work.
• Offensive balance: Portland needs to take a page out of the Magic’s playbook, and get everybody involved on offense. The Blazers are deep. Taking advantage of that depth can be a difference maker.

**Quick note, I’ll be going to Seattle Friday evening to watch Uhh Yeah Dude tape a live podcast so I’ll be watching this game on DVR and posting a recap Saturday morning**

email me: mike.acker1@gmail.com

Twitter: @mikeacker | @ripcityproject