Feb. 19, 2013; Portland, OR, USA; Phoenix Suns point guard Goran Dragic (1) drives to the basket on Portland Trail Blazers point guard Damian Lillard (0) during the fourth quarter of the game at the Rose Garden. The Suns won the game 102-98. Mandatory Credit: Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports

Everything you see or hear or experience in any way at all is specific to you. You create a universe by perceiving it, so everything in the universe you perceive is specific to you. — Douglas Adams

I came across the above quote this very evening while watching the Blazers play a hapless 24 minutes of basketball, then scramble like hell to make up for it in a middling to decent 24 minutes of basketball, and then finally succumb to the lowly Phoenix Suns (they of the worst record in the Western Conference) in their first home game since the first week in February.

I happened upon it because I was thinking about how we as fans and consumers of Blazer basketball perceive this iteration of this team and this season, and how it pertains to what could be called objective reality. I was also thinking, how is our “objective reality” different than the “objective reality” of the players and coaches who actually do the playing and the coaching? Also, what do those differences, be they stark or not, say about perception as a whole.

Here is the conclusion that I drew: Since reality is basically subjective, subject to the various whims and inclinations of the people who experience said reality, we get to decide for ourselves what 2012-13 means and how it should be perceived in what is the entire spectrum of the Portland Trail Blazers. And the best part is, we get to be right.

If your perception is that Portland is a piece or two away from being a contender, and that the reality of this season is that it’s not over, well, then you’re right. Tuesday, the Blazers played without Wesley Matthews. Because Matthews was not in the lineup, Nolan Smith played crunch time minutes. Because Nolan Smith played crunch time minutes, a crucial free throw was missed and a crucial late game possession ended with a heaved three from the corner that clanked off the rim and bounced off the top of the backboard. If Matthews is in there taking those shots, they go down. If they go down, Portland wins. If they win, they’re right back on track. Congratulations, your perception of reality is correct.

If your perception is that the Blazers are a mid-level lottery team that is overachieving, and that the reality of the stretch run is that it will likely be spent regressing, again you’re right. Most projections had this team winning in the neighborhood of 30 games, 35 to 40 at the absolute top. Fifty-four games in, Portland has 25 wins, and that’s even after a six-game slide (their second six-game skid and their fourth losing streak of four or more games of the season). To reach the low end of the win projection, the Blazers only have to win five more times over the course of the next 28 games. Because experts didn’t come up with 30 to 35 games buy pulling numbers our of thin air (like I did), math states that winning more games than the Blazers should have early will be corrected for by Portland losing more games than they should late. The good thing about math is that it’s never wrong. The Blazers are regressing. Congratulations, your perception of reality is correct.

If your perception of reality is that Portland is a doormat that got lucky a couple of times, and that reality of 2012-13 is that the Blazers are a glorified lottery team full of long-term projects and rejected trash, once again you’re right. Does this one need to be spelled out? Portland lost to the Phoenix Suns. The Blazers gave up 12 straight points to start the game, not scoring a basket for FOUR WHOLE MINUTES. Meyers Leonard played 5:31 (all in the first half), scored two points from the line, had two personal fouls, and ZERO rebounds. The Blazers were counting on Sasha Pavlovic to create offense late in the second half. Post game a well respected veteran television journalist was making a case for Luke Babbitt being in the game in the closing minutes and not Nolan Smith, and he wasn’t wrong. This is a bad team finally playing like the bad team they are. They’re only not in the lottery conversation because of luck. They only haven’t traded LaMarcus Aldridge for picks because another season with Damian Lillard might raise his trade value enough that Portland could work a deal to get a shot at Andrew Wiggins (this guy not this guy). Congratulations, your perception of reality is correct.

So that’s where we find ourselves one game after the All-Star Break. We get to decide how we want the rest of this season to go, and based on that decision, and the relative amount of self delusion we’re all willing to put up with, we get to be right.

As far as the Blazers, Terry Stotts refuses to say the season is slipping away even as Damian Lillard says the window might be closing (you get to decide if those two things are the same or not), Lillard basically refuses to talk about this season as existing as one small part of the whole of his career (I tried to get him to talk about that, like I’ve tried to get him to talk about it before, and maybe one day I’ll write about what I have and haven’t gotten him to say about it), and winning basketball games, especially against bad teams, is still the order of the day.

Say what you will, but sometimes ignoring reality, especially when it hits you in the face over and over, is the best way to go. After all, every team is contractually obligated to play all 82 games. If you’ve got to show up, you should at least make it look like you have something to play for.

Portland travels to Los Angeles to take on the Lakers on Friday.

That’s it for me, my advice to you is read Douglas Adams and then spend the next few hours arguing with people on twitter.

Box Score

Standings

@mikeacker | @ripcityproject | mike.acker1@gmail.com

Feb. 19, 2013; Portland, OR, USA; Phoenix Suns small forward Michael Beasley (0) puts his arm around Phoenix Suns head coach Lindsey Hunter during a timeout in the fourth quarter of the game at the Rose Garden. The Suns won the game 102-98. Mandatory Credit: Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports

Dec. 22, 2012; Portland, OR, USA; Portland Trail Blazers power forward LaMarcus Aldridge (12) shoots the ball over Phoenix Suns power forward Luis Scola (14) during the second quarter of the game at the Rose Garden. The Blazers won the game 96-93. Mandatory Credit: Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports

The All-Star Break is over, which means that for approximately half of the teams in the NBA, the actual season has just begun. Sixteen teams make the Playoffs. On a good year, 20 teams fight it out down the stretch for those sixteen spots (or more accurately four or five teams fight it out for the eighth or maybe seventh spot in both conferences, considering that the first through sixth teams are basically jockeying for position which isn’t quite the same thing).

2012-13 has been a bit top heavy. Teams like San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Miami, and the LA Clippers have been on top almost the entire run. Conversely, teams like Sacramento, Charlotte, Washington, and Portland’s Tuesday opponent Phoenix have basically been stuck at the bottom of the heap since day one. The Blazers, though, fall right into that sweet spot. They are neither the top nor the bottom. They are neither (legitimately) fighting for the post season nor trying to tank for a shot at Shabazz Muhammad, Victor Oladipo, or any of the one or two other blue chippers who could be franchise-level draftees.

Danny Nowell of Portland Roundball Society wrote briefly about the implications of the Blazers’ one foot in/one foot out standing, and what the team should do moving forward. I wrote about it too in a post about why and how Portland should deal J.J. Hickson.

But the real question isn’t what should the Blazers do with regards to trades or rotation moves to make a play in one direction or the other. The question is, how is Portland going to physically play out the string? The Blazers suffered maybe their worst loss of the season in New Orleans before taking off for some much needed R&R. More games like that one, and Portland might be able to play themselves back into their first round pick. More games like that one, though, and the Blazers are going to be finishing the season in an empty gym.

Phoenix has the worst record in the Western Conference and is a few games off the pace set by Charlotte for worst record in the NBA. Losing to Phoenix, pushing the Blazers’ losing streak to six, might very well set the tone for how this season closes out. My guess is Portland will want to win this one at almost all costs. Some fans will find that approach deplorable, putting the future in jeopardy for the sake of keeping the rubes interested.

I don’t totally disagree with the Blazers packing it up and trying to lose for draft positioning. But my educated guess is Portland is going to keep putting guys on the floor with the intent of winning basketball games. If they want to win basketball games, the best place to start is against the worst team in the West.

Blazers Starting 5: PG Damian Lillard, SG Wesley Matthews, SF Nicolas Batum, PF LaMarcus Aldridge, C J.J. Hickson

Suns Starting 5: PG Goran Dragic, SG Jared Dudley, SF P.J. Tucker, PF Luis Scola, C Marcin Gortat

This is a tough one to call, believe it or not. The Blazers and Suns have faced off two times in 2012-13. They’ve split the two meetings, with the home team winning both times. The interesting element of those two games this season is that in Phoenix the Suns whipped the Blazers by 27 and in Portland the Blazers squeaked by with a three-point victory. On aggregate, the team with the worst record in the Western Conference is still 24 points better than the Blazers.

It makes sense, though. Phoenix is the kind of team Portland matches up poorly against, and as we all know the Blazers have a serious tendency to play down to their competition.

Match-up wise, Luis Scola is the kind of power forward who can be a real headache, because the Blazers have limited effective rim protection Marcin Gortat can and will get a lot of easy looks, and shooters like Jared Dudley and Goran Dragic are going to get open looks because every shooter is always open against Portland.

The key for the Blazers on Tuesday is going to be figuring out a way to make the game as easy as possible. That means, basically, taking care of the ball and limiting the number of possessions that end in terrible shots. Phoenix is going to want to get out and run. They’re not quite as well equipped to get up and down the floor as they once were, but they’re going to try and push the pace nonetheless. Transition defense is going to be important, and more than that, limiting the number of possessions Phoenix has on which to get out in transition is going to be even more important.

What to Watch For

• Wesley Matthews and/or Victor Claver. Wesley is injured, and Portland is trying to decide when, where, and how best to play him so he doesn’t kill himself before the end of the season. I vote for Wesley playing if he’s healthy. I also vote for not trying to press too much when it comes to bringing him back. If he plays, that’s good for the Blazers. He is one of their more consistent offensive weapons, and his match-up with Jared Dudley is one of the more favorable match-ups for Portland overall. If he doesn’t play, though, there are going to be some good minutes available for Victor Claver. The final lap of this season can be determined either successful or not based on the progress of guys like Victor Claver. As far as the end of the bench rookies, Claver and Will Barton have been the best. Barton has had better nights than Vic, but the Spaniard might be just a touch more consistent. I feel like Claver is poised to break out one of these nights. The sooner that happens, the better.
• Who shows up for Phoenix. Basically I mean Michael Beasley. If Mike Beasley shows up, his team always has a chance. If you don’t believe me, ask Kobe Bryant.
• Portland’s role players. LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard are coming back for the All-Star Break. They had no time off. In fact, they spent their break competing with the other elites of the NBA in front of a pretty big national and international television audience. I think it was Chris Webber during the BBVA Rising Challenge who said guys usually come back from the All-Star Break motivated to play better, and in turn end up playing a lot better to close the season. The thing to look out for then, is how all the non All-Star participants come back from break. I know most guys went somewhere with their days off. That means they might not have gotten back into Portland until Sunday and that they might not have picked up a basketball for a couple of days. If the Blazers are rusty, they could find themselves in trouble early. The nice thing is, nobody from the Suns played any part in All-Star Weekend. They should be a little rusty too.

@mikeacker | @ripcityproject | mike.acker1@gmail.com

Damian Lillard has emerged as Portland’s go-to guy. Mandatory Credit: Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports

The point guard of the future is like a mythical creature. Teams are always looking for one, and very rarely is there one to found. Prior to Saturday’s tip-off, Ben Golliver from Blazersedge and I had a short conversation about Kendall Marshall, the Phoenix Suns’ rookie point guard from the University of North Carolina. Taken with the 13th overall pick (two spots after Meyers Leonard and seven after Damian Lillard), Marshall was the second point guard selected.

A pick that high would usually be used on a guy likely to be a contributor. Austin Rivers, taken 10th is the second head of a two-headed rookie comeback for the New Orleans Hornets. Jeremy Lamb, the number 12 pick, hasn’t contributed much yet, but he was thought highly enough of by the Oklahoma City Thunder that he was made part of the deal with Houston for James Harden.

Kendall Marshall, a potential point guard of the future, however has been relegated to the D-League already once this season where he played poorly to say the least, and Saturday night collected a DNP-CD. Not the stat line of a future franchise player.

So why do I start a game recap by talking about a guy that didn’t see a single second of action? For two reasons. Damian Lillard and Sebastian Telfair. Sebastian Telfair is Portland’s point guard of the future who didn’t work out; Damian Lillard is (as of right now) the one who did. Saturday they squared off, and Blazer fans got a chance to see just how important a good point guard of the future can be.

After a rough first half in which Lillard shot a rather paltry 1-of-4 from the field and 0-of-2 from deep and his team trailed 53-44, Damian was instrumental in leading a third quarter comeback that didn’t just get the Blazers back into Saturday’s game, it put them in a position to win it. Not only that, once again, it was Damian with the ball in his hands with the game on the line and the clock winding down.

Look at Saturday’s play-by-play report (here‘s ESPN.com’s). With 6:49 left to play in the fourth quarter, Ronnie Price hit a driving lay-up to give Portland back the lead 84-83, a lead they wouldn’t surrender. Though Phoenix didn’t get their lead back, they didn’t go away either. To put Saturday on ice, the Blazers scored five more times.

Those scoring possessions break down as follows: 5:13 Lillard two free throws 86-83 Portland, 4:31 Sasha Pavlovic three-point field goal 89-85 Portland, 4:02 Lillard three-point field goal 92-85 Portland, 3:24 Lillard driving lay-up 94-87 Portland, 41.9 Lillard 19-foot step-back jumper 96-91 Portland.

Take a look at that. Five scoring possessions, including a trip to the free throw line, four of them coming from Damian Lillard. The topic of Damian playing “hero ball” has been discussed, and although I agree that tagging a young player, or a player of any age for that matter, as the guy who needs the ball at the end of games can have it’s downsides, I choose to think of Damian’s late game play (heroics maybe?) in a slightly different way.

The Blazers are a young team, and even if you agree with the infinitely wise Scott Leedy that winning right now isn’t in their best interests, it’s nights like Saturday that really point to a brighter future, not next year’s number one pick, or the top pick in the year after that. Because of that, I like to say that getting the ball late and making plays at the end of games is Damian’s way of leading by example. He wants his team to win games, and Saturday the best way for his team to win games was for him to have and then score the ball. Maybe that’s “hero ball,” and maybe that puts too much pressure on Lillard or limits Portland’s options, but it also shows that he’s not afraid of big moments and that when needed he can thrive in crunch time.

Following Saturday’s game, Lillard went as far as to say he’s not worried about making mistakes because he wants to show his teammates that he’s willing to take the responsibility of making things happen. Taking that responsibility means having offensive possessions like the one Damian had to try and close the game for the Blazers. With Portland going flat, Lillard attacked the basket basically one on five. Phoenix collapsed on him, he went up into a crowd, and Marcin Gortat came down with the ball for the Suns.

Portland was up three with the ball at the start of the possession, so worst case scenario the Blazers would get a final look with the game tied, but it was still a gutsy move, and something of a gamble. With shooters on the floor, Damian could have tired to work the ball around the perimeter. With LaMarcus Aldridge and J.J. Hickson both in the game and having great nights, Damian could have thrown the ball into the post and let one of the vets try to win the game. Instead he decided to go it alone. “Hero ball,” certainly, and if Phoenix had converted a three instead of running out the clock without getting a solid look and then done something insane like won in overtime this would be a very different conversation. But Portland won, and Damian excelled, and maybe next time when he’s got the ball on the final possession to try and put a game away he converts. Damian will never built the confidence or the skills needed to make that kind of thing happen if he doesn’t try and fail.

Which brings me back to the whole point guard of the future, Sebastian Telfair, Kendall Marshall thing. Sebastian Telfair had a chance to be Portland’s point guard of the future and failed. Kendall Marshall hasn’t been given the chance to be Phoenix’s point guard of the future. Whether or not Marshall is ever given the chance to become an NBA player or lead his team in the way Damian Lillard has been given the chance to lead the Blazers is up for debate.

What isn’t up for debate, and what becomes more and more obvious with each passing night, is that with Lillard at the helm, a lot of things are possible for these Blazers.

With Portland now a game over .500 and in 9th in the Western Conference, some things are being brought up. One of those things, of course, is the Playoffs. Post game, Damian Lillard was asked about playing in the post season. He believes that his squad has that kind of potential.

I tend to agree that the potential is high with this team. It’s way too early to even think about the Playoffs though. Portland still has a lot of holes to fill, and a lot of things to figure out rotation-wise. Sean Highkin’s assessment via Twitter of the Blazers’ schedule thus far is also pretty right on. Portland has beaten teams they should be beating. They’re winning games they should win. It’s a positive step, but it’s just the first step. There are many more to come.

The Blazers travel to Sacramento for their first of a home-and-home to finish out the Kings-Blazers December To Remember.

Just a couple of quick things:

• J.J. Hickson scored 13 points and collected 8 rebounds in the first quarter of Saturday’s game. Hickson finshed with 19 points and 15 rebounds for his seventh straight double-double. The last Blazer to collect seven double-doubles in a row was Arvydas Sabonis. Not bad company. For at least the four game in a row, Hickson has also been one of the first guys mentioned by head coach Terry Stotts in his post game press conference. We’ve reached a point now with J.J. where his numbers look legit. My guess is he maintains this level of play for at least a little while longer. And that’s where the trouble starts. Hickson will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of this season, meaning he will go to the highest bidder. Maybe that bidder will be Portland. However, the Blazers have a short-term window to get good before they have to do everything in their power to re-sign LaMarcus Aldridge, shelling out big bucks to Hickson following an outstanding contract year, only to then see him revert, is not conducive to the long-term LaMarcus Aldridge plan. The flip side, of course, is that if somebody goes big on Hickson and the Blazers let him walk (or if that somebody is a team J.J. thinks he’s better suited to or he’d rather play for than Portland) he leaves for nothing. The smart move is to trade him. Portland bought low on Hickson, and they have the chance to sell high. A trade isn’t a simple solution either, though. Imagine the Blazers trade Hickson, and then instead of falling back to where he was when he got waived out of Sacramento he continues to blossom and becomes and All-Star. J.J. is 24. He’s got a lot of NBA basketball left to play. Trading a guy at what you think is his best, then not reaping the benefits when he gets better, is not a smart move regardless of who comes back in the deal. My feeling is this. Blazer fans, enjoy what Hickson is doing right now, which isn’t hard to do, and then be prepared for the stress fest that will be his trade bait/FA period.
• Luke Babbitt’s streak of consecutive games scoring in double figures ends at three.
• I know I said it’s a bit early, and doing the Standings Watch last season might have been a jinx, but here goes. Standings Watch: Portland is currently number nine in the West, a half a game behind Denver, and a half a game ahead of Utah.

I’ll leave you with this quote from Jermaine O’Neal courtesy of The Oregonian‘s Mike Tokito. O’Neal has a special place in the heart of many Blazer fans. It’s nice to see him still hanging in there and contributing.

Jermaine O’Neal; “Good to see this building rocking again … brings back a lot of old memories when you can barely hear yourself breath.”

— Mike Tokito (@mtokito) December 23, 2012

Box Score

Standings

@mikeacker | @ripcityproject | mike.acker1@gmail.com

Dec. 22, 2012; Portland, OR, USA; Phoenix Suns power forward Luis Scola (14) and Phoenix Suns center Marcin Gortat (4) go up to try and block the shot of Portland Trail Blazers center J.J. Hickson (21) during the first quarter of the game at the Rose Garden. Mandatory Credit: Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports