"So what's the big deal, I mastered the art of the tiny fist pump in 8 days? Oh you're more impressed by the knee thing. Makes sense I guess." (Source: YardBarker.com)

There’s a lot on the line tonight. The story will be which team comes out and plays like it.

It’s amazing how much simpler things get when you reach a Game 5. I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again: Game 5′s are just like booty calls. Why? Because you know exactly what you’re going to get out of them.

By Game 5, both teams know each other. The majority of the questions have been answered. Generally speaking, the key adjustments have been made. And if they haven’t…you’re probably not in the best of positions to compete in the series. Both teams know what to expect from each other. By Game 5, neither team cares what the others middle name is, it’s just time to throw down. This is where the cliches start kicking in: it’s about who wants it more. About which team can impose their will on the other. I’ll stop there.

Phoenix, obviously will be looking to be more aggressive than they were on Saturday. From reading and hearing the comments from the Suns, they are coming in with a high level of confidence. Honestly at this point, it’s almost bordering on a little bit of arrogance. A little bit of ‘If we do what we do they can’t beat us’ type feel. Despite it being a 2-2 series, they feel as if the reason they have lost is because they missed shots. And they have said it multiple times. One of Phoenix’s main objectives for tonight is improving offensively. You hold a team like Phoenix to 87 points and you expect them to want to rectify that.

(Sidenote, I like how this becoming a real playoff series. In my eyes, as a fan, it’s not a playoff series until guys from the other team start bugging you. That started happening for me in Game 4. Clearly Amare has embraced the role of lead villain, but the rest of the Suns are starting to wear on my nerves. Especially that damn Robin Lopez…and he’s not even playing! Come on Jarron Collins scoring doesn’t bug you?!?! Liars.)

A major key coming into this one is Portland’s ability to stop Phoenix’s transition game. Last night on TNT they put up a great stat showing Phoenix’s fast-break points and how it’s correlated to winning. In Games 1 and 4 they only scored 4 fast break points, both games they lost. In Games 2 and 3 they recorded double-digits in fast break points, both games they won. Phoenix is a completely different team when they can score in transition and Portland has got to take care of that from the start.

On the flip side, for Portland they have to continue to find ways to get offensive rebounds. Now that’s a slippery slope because you can’t just recklessly crash the boards. If you do and you don’t get it Phoenix is scoring on you on the other end. I’ll take more tapouts from Marcus Camby and Juwan Howard please.

Another key to this one is how good of a start the Blazers get off too. It’s been simple, when Portland gets off to a good start in this series they are right there all game. When they don’t they get run off the court. Phoenix and their crowd realize the importance of this game and there should be a ton of energy coming from the home team. The Blazers have to be ready to match that to start and go from there. If not, as we’ve seen before, things could get ugly.

If Portland wants a victory, they really need to know where Jason Richardson is at all times. We all know what Nash and Amare can do when they get rolling. But the key to the Suns really playing well is Richardson. On the series, he’s averaging 25 points a game, shooting 54% from the field and 51% from behind the arc. In this series he’s proven that he is an impact player. In Phoenix’s two losses he’s shot 10-for-28 from the field (35.7%) and 4-for-14 from behind the arc (28.5%). If he’s able to knock down shots, Portland will be in trouble. If he’s not they have a chance.

Offensively, Portland has to keep executing. A major key to getting off to a good start is finding ways to put the ball in the basket early. One of the underrated stories about Game 4 was Portland’s balance offensively. Seven players scored 8 or more points and five were in double figures. That’s big, because if Portland can score that in itself helps stunt Phoenix’s transition game. I’m interested to see how Phoenix play LaMarcus Aldridge tonight. I’m also interested to see how Andre Miller responds in Game 2 with Roy back. The one thing about Roy’s return is for the first time it really spread out Phoenix’s defense. Roy’s return has made life easier on everyone else, let’s see what Phoenix has up their sleeve tonight.

My favorite part about this game? Almost any result is realistic. I don’t know about you but I can imagine Portland pulling a close one out about as much as I can imagine them losing by 27. There’s a lot on the line here. The loser gets put on the brink of elimination. Phoenix recognizes the importance of this game and I know they do not want to go to Portland down 3-2. A lot of the pressure coming into this one lies on their shoulders. Portland on the other hand is going to have to find a way to get themselves ready to play. They won’t have the Rose Garden crowd, they won’t have the fuel of two embarrassing blowouts, they won’t have Brandon Roy’s comeback. They have to do whatever it takes to be ready for this one.

I think the good thing about this series is generally speaking you can tell how it’s going to end up relatively quick. Portland sticks around in the first quarter, you know it’s a game. They don’t…you know the rest. Which means if Portland doesn’t show up in the desert, I’ll be watching Pamela Anderson on Dancing With The Stars a little earlier than I had wanted.

Don't bring that weak mess in here, Amare (Source: YardBarker.com)

Let’s dive right into this one. You know the scenario. Portland enters into today’s Game 4 down 2-1, with their backs against the wall. Make no mistake about it, this is a must-win situation. Just to illustrate how quickly momentum can swing in a series or how intense the highs and lows of the playoffs are, remember how you felt after Game 1? Now think about how long ago that feels? Crazy right. The two beatdowns that the Blazers have received have had some fans thinking it’s over. Well a loss today will change things from ‘if’ the Blazers get eliminated to ‘when’

Make no mistake about it, there’s still a lot of basketball to be played and Portland still has a shot at this. It’s not a big shot, but it definitely is. We’re like that guy who asks a girl on a date and she says ‘I’ll think about it’ (still got a shot). It’s not looking good and we might look a little foolish for believing…but there’s still a chance.

For Portland to have success they are going to have to figure out how to adjust to Phoenix’s gameplan. First they have to come out with aggression, determination and just an unreal energy. There is no excuse not too. The Blazers *need* to get off to a good start. This Blazer team without Brandon Roy and with Batum not at 100% has no room for errors. Portland cannot afford to fall behind early because as we have seen the past two games, a slow start turns into an avalanche real quick. So what I mean by ‘no room for errors’ is the Blazers can’t afford early turnovers or early fouls. This is a team that can’t afford for anyone to pick up two quick ones, lets alone LaMarcus Aldridge, Rudy Fernandez and Andre Miller all doing it in the first quarter. If those guys can stay in the game that gives Portland a much better chance than in Game 3.

Offensively they have to figure out the Suns puzzle. It sounds simple but Portland just has to find ways to put the ball in the bucket. That right there slows Phoenix’s transition game, which is half of Portland’s problems. The rest of Portland’s offensive problems have not changed from Game 2 or 3. The Blazers need aggression and quick decisions. When the Blazers are taking shots late in the shot clock…it’s ugly. LaMarcus Aldridge and Andre Miller are going to get all of the attention from Phoenix’s defense. The Blazers need one of these guys to go off and figure out how to make Phoenix pay for it. They need help though, they need help from Rudy Fernandez, Martell Webster and Jerryd Bayless. One of those guys has to make Phoenix guard them if Portland wants LMA and Andre Miller to be freed. It’s simple, if they don’t Portland will more than likely continue struggling.

Defensively, the Blazers have to figure out the pick and roll. Phoenix’s little tweaks have worked out well because now there is more of a pick-your-poison aspect to it. You’ve got Nash attacking, Amare rolling forcing you to help, Hill sometimes and then shooters on the weakside. It’s not easy but if Portland can corral it things will get better. Also, Portland has to get back to the little things. Everything has looked a step slow over the past two games, whether it be getting back in transition, boxing out or closing out to shooters. Be sharp, do the little things right and be solid.

Obviously whatever you do, you cannot leave Jason Richardson open. Can’t. Do. It. There’s a reason Phoenix is 28-3 on the season when he scores 20+ and 10-1 when he scores 25 or more. Portland has to find a way to cool him down because when he’s going as a viable third option, Phoenix morphs into a completely different team. When he’s not, this is a team that can be had.

Only a couple hours away from Game 4. Time to see if the Blazers can wiggle their big toe, or end up in the back of an obscenely named pickup truck paralyzed from the waist down.

It’s tough to find positive things to write about going into this one. That Thunder game has left a nasty taste in my mouth. Like the morning after a bender and no matter how many times you brush your teeth your mouth doesn’t taste right. It doesn’t help that we’re traveling to Phoenix. That building has not been kind to the Blazers. The Suns have won 9 straight games over Portland in Phoenix and 15 of the last 17. The last victory coming on February 4th, 2004 when Zach Randolph and Damon Stoudamire both had double-doubles, and Wesley Person scored in double figures. And Vladmir Stepania played 15 minutes. Dating back even further, the Blazers are 15-34 in Phoenix since 1986 and 10-26 since the America West Arena/US Airways Center opened. Icky, right?

Also hurting the confidence…the Suns have won five straight. Just to show how wild the Western Conference is, a week ago the Suns were on the outside looking in of the playoff race. Now they are a game out of 4th place. A big reason for this surge? The return of Amare Stoudemire. In this five-game winning streak, Stoudemire is averaging 26 points, 10 rebounds, shooting 55% from the field and averaging a little under 10 free throw attempts a game. Now combine Amare playing well with the fact that the Suns are a nightmare matchup for the Blazers. They just have too many weapons. Nash (18 pts, 11 assists a game) in the pick and roll or driving at will? They have five guys shooting 40% or better from behind the arc (Dudley, Nash, Hill, Frye, Dragic) and Jason Richardson who has always been a Blazer killer dating back to his Golden State days. Portland’s defense is going ot be challenged in every single way.

Keys to the game

Score: Phoenix had lost 7 of 9 before this win streak, so they can be beat. But you can’t beat them if you can’t put the ball in the bucket. They are 8-0 when their opponent fails to score 100 or more. And that was something Portland struggled with mightily last night. Everyone (should) want to talk about the 22 turnovers, but Rudy Fernandez/Steve Blake/Martell Webster went 1-for-15 from the field. 14 of their shots were 3-pointers. A lot of them were open looks. If we can’t make shots in general we’ll get run out of the gym.

Energy: Last night, Portland came out flatter than Heidi Montag in 2001. There was no energy on defense or offense and it was just a complete mess. Luckily at home against a young team they managed to weather the storm. They won’t in Phoenix. The Suns can absolutely bury you if you have a lull.

Attack, attack, attack: The Blazers stagnate offensively when they just pass it around the perimeter, look up at the clock, see 7 seconds and go ‘OH CRAP WE GOTS TA SHOOT’. When they attack, good things happen. Andre Miller, Bayless, Aldridge, Batum…attack the basket. You can finish on Amare/Lopez. At the very least get to the line. Just don’t settle against a poor defensive team.

It’s hard to have a real positive outlook about this one. I marked this one as an L last week and definitely have it in permanent marker. This team has proved me wrong before, but just the vibe from last night combined with the Suns playing well and the fact that we always struggle in Phoenix…and yeah. This team has done some amazing things in the first half of the season to get us here. The heart, determination and grit of this team has been fun to watch. So… Let’s just get to the All-Star Break healthy.