Damian Lillard returns home to Oakland for his first time as a professional to face a tough young Warriors back court owner of two Rookie of the Month awards. Credit: Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports

There’s a team out west led by an All-Star power forward and a hot shooting young point guard that has taken the NBA by storm. They’re the fastest risers in the league, are directed by a potential coach of the year, they’ll make the Playoffs almost for sure, and given the right match-up they could very possibly make a deep post-season run.

Think I’m talking about the Blazers? LA’s an All-Star, Damian Lillard is a top-10 point guard, and over the last 15 games Portland (at 12-3) is tied for the second best record in the NBA. So you’d be right about those things. But a deep Playoff run? Sure if the Lakers don’t figure it out and the T-Wolves can’t survive without Kevin Love for two months and the Utah Jazz don’t get crazy hot when Mo Williams comes back, the Playoffs are certainly in play, but without a bench, the Blazers might be able to steal a game from the Thunder or the Clippers but not a series.

The hot Western Conference team, the sleeper pick to make the Western Conference Finals (depending on where they finish at the end of the season) is the Golden State Warriors. Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, David Lee, and Harrison Barnes are the backbone of a strong team that has jumped out to fifth place in the West. They play an up-tempo, inside-out game, and without Monta Ellis, they seem to have shed the rep of being the worst decision makers in the league.

Blazers Starting 5: PG Damian Lillard, SG Wesley Matthews, SF Nicolas Batum, PF LaMarcus Aldridge, C J.J. Hickson

Warriors Starting 5:  PG Stephen Curry, SG Klay Thompson, SF Harrison Barnes, PF David Lee, C Festus Ezeli

In 2012-13, the Blazers have had trap games, get-right games, must-win games, and can’t lose games (which are different than must-win games). However, they haven’t quite had a game like Friday’s.

Here are the specs: Portland is on the second of a back-to-back, Thursday night (for those will HORRIBLE short-term memories) the Blazers led for the most important 26 seconds of their game against the Miami Heat, four of Portland’s five starters are 24 hours removed from logging 40 minutes of smash-mouth basketball. The Blazers almost never win in Oakland. And Golden State is staring down a three-game losing streak that could undermine all they’ve done to open the season.

And here’s the kicker, Damian Lillard will be playing as a profession in his hometown for the first time (in case you didn’t know, Damian Lillard grew up in Oakland). Portland should be totally depleted, both emotionally and physically, and one of their most important players is playing probably the biggest game of his life. Who knows what to expect.

What to Watch For

• Will the combination of Curry and Thompson shoot the Blazers out of Oracle. For my money, there is no better young back court combination than Klay Thompson (in his second season) and Steph Curry (in his third). Thompson is a dead-eye, spot-up shooter; Curry is maybe the best young point guard in the league (he’s not quite Damian Lillard’s ceiling since I think Dame is a better traditional point guard, but he is certainly the closest comparison I can think of). Both guys can flat out shoot the ball. Portland’s perimeter defense has had its Swiss cheese moments this season. If Thompson and Curry are not defended well, if they are allowed to get lots of open looks, the Blazers will put themselves in a hole very early. Here’s the good thing though, Portland is coming off a pretty impressive defensive night. Maybe LeBron James was just off on Thursday, or maybe Wesley Matthews really is a stopper on the defensive end. Either way, this team should probably be pretty pumped about how they kept Miami from hitting shots down the stretch that would very easily would have kept Portland at arm’s length. Klay Thompson is not LeBron James. Wesley Matthews should be able to disrupt his game a little bit. Curry one-on-one with Damian Lillard will be a little more interesting. Dame struggled a bit against Mario Chalmers at times on Thursday. Curry doesn’t play D like Chalmers does, but if Dame tries to get into a shooting contest with Steph it could be a long night.
• Are the Blazers over their biggest win of the season. Thursday night I asked Wesley Matthews how this team can carry the momentum from beating the Heat into beating the Warriors (you can watch a bit of his response here, I’m the guy over Wesley’s left shoulder who is made up mostly of hair). He said, as he tends to do, that the team will enjoy it until midnight and then get onto the next one. He says it. He believes it. But can Portland play like they actually mean it? I submit as exhibit A proving that maybe they cannot, the second game of 2013 for the Blazers played in Toronto against the Raptors.
• What will Damian’s homecoming be like. Dame has done absolutely nothing wrong throughout his 35 games as a professional. Thursday he missed two free throws and a three in the fourth quarter (two big misses). I asked him if he was feeling pressure for the first time with the ball in his hands trying to sink the defending NBA Champs. Of course he said no. The ball goes in sometimes, and sometimes it doesn’t, is what he said. Oakland means a lot to Damian. This game is important to him, even if he pretends that it isn’t. So, if Friday’s game is important, will Dame shine or will he finally fail to deliver with the spotlight on him.

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Jan 25, 2012; Oakland, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors point guard Stephen Curry (30) is defended by Portland Trail Blazers small forward Gerald Wallace (3) and small forward Nicolas Batum (88) during the fourth quarter at Oracle Arena. Golden State defeated Portland 101-93. Mandatory Credit: Jason O. Watson-US PRESSWIRE

In the early part of Wednesday’s game there were a few moments when I thought Portland was going to do the unthinkable, and get a win in Oakland. The Blazers looked sharp in the first two quarters, moving the ball around, finding open shooters, making open shots. It looked very possible that Portland’s struggles in Oak-town had come to an end.

But then something happened, and that something was named Stephen Curry. The Blazers will watch the tape of this game, as they should since there were a lot of good things to see like the aforementioned ball movement and a lot of bad things to address such as slow defensive rotations, and they will get on themselves for letting Curry get open too many times in the third quarter. It’s true that Portland helped when they probably shouldn’t have, and drifted away from shooters way way too much, but most of the damage Steph Curry did very likely couldn’t have been stopped.

Curry is that kind of special player who can get super hot, and when he does you have to try and keep up on the offensive end, because you probably aren’t going to stop him. Sure Portland could have limited the damage by defending David Lee a little better–although he ended up open a lot because the Blazers were sending two defenders at Steph and he can pass almost as well as he can shoot–and not letting any other Warrior score at all, but Portland lost on Wednesday night mostly because when Curry was streaking, and hitting every thing he tossed up, the Blazers couldn’t buy a bucket.

If you took only the first, second, and fourth quarters of Wednesday’s game, Portland outscores Golden State 73-70. Certainly not a safe advantage, but a lead nonetheless. The Warriors’ burst and the Blazers’ bust in the third quarter was very clearly the difference.

And what happened in that quarter that turned the tide in Golden State’s favor? In my opinion, what happened was that Portland went away from their game, and tried to out-shoot the Warriors. The Blazers have shooters, Jamal Crawford, Wesley Matthews, Nicolas Batum, LaMarcus Aldridge, but they don’t have anybody like Steph Curry. The Blazers got their points in the first half by getting to the rim. When Curry went off, they tried to match him. It didn’t happen. By the time Portland tried to go back to their inside game, Golden State had a decent sized lead, and with it enough momentum and energy to focus their defensive intensity. What you don’t want to do when you’re playing a team like Golden State is give them a reason to play defense.

Portland didn’t play badly, though. In fact, I felt they played better in Oakland on Wednesday than they have in a while. Nicolas Batum, Wesley Matthews, Jamal Crawford, and LaMarcus Aldridge all had decent offensive nights. Marcus Camby continued to crash the boards like a man half his age. Raymond Felton’s play continues to be unimpressive, but for the short term I think the Blazers are a lot more likely to stick with him and try to make it work than go out and try to make a trade to bring somebody else in.

A lot of Blazer fans are going to point directly to Portland’s inability to execute at the end of the game. I think a lot of that can be attributed to tired legs. No doubt people will also be a little peeved by the fact that the Blazers can’t seem to beat a bad team. I feel the same way, but everybody that’s watched Portland at all in the last few years knows they almost never beat the Warriors.

I know it sounds like I’m letting them off easy, the best teams in the league beat up on the worst teams and these losses are going to count for something when it comes to Playoff seeding, but I do believe the Blazers can be forgiven for this loss. None of these guys have played three straight games at the NBA level, and although they clearly played with a lot of effort Wednesday night it did seem like it just wasn’t there at the end. Also, Golden State had given up a big lead in front of their home crowd in their last game, and played like a team that needed a win.

At the end of the season, I firmly believe the Blazers will be at or near the top-four seeds in the West. Golden State won’t. I understand that that’s a ways off, and losing against bad teams never feels good. But even bad teams have good nights. As fans we can take a level of solace in knowing that it took a great game from Stephen Curry and a very good game from David Lee for the Warriors to topple the Blazers. That hasn’t always been the case at ORACLE.

The Blazers get a shot at redemption against the Suns at home on Friday.

Couple of quick things:

• Gerald Wallace continues to not play well on the road. Crash had six points, shooting 3-of-9 from the field. He did have some nice stretches on offense, although there was more than one time that Wallace made a nice spin move to the rim in the post, then missed at the rim. Gerald’s really got to figure it out away from home.
• Nicolas Batum has not been extended by the Blazers. Nic’s agent is saying they will shop him around before coming back to Portland. Before everybody goes into total panic mode, remember he will be a restricted free agent, so any offer made can and will be matched by the Blazers. I guess not any offer will be matched, but it’s hard to imagine Portland lets him go. The NBA is a business, after all, and it’s a bad business decision to spend two dollars on something you think you can get for one. Nic’s value will now be determined by the market. The market is going to be healthy, but I think the Blazers are ready to go the distance if that’s what it takes. Wednesday, Nicolas had a very good game: 16 points, 5-of-8 from the field, and two very nice chase-down blocks.
• Minutes watch: 30:09 for Raymond Felton. Raymond shot 2-of-10 from the field and 1-of-4 from deep, but had seven assists and only one turnover. One of the problems Portland has right now is they don’t really have an alternative to Felton. I think there’s plenty of room for improvement with Ray, but I do agree that Portland might be better off with somebody else at the helm. But like I said, they’d have to go out and get somebody, and I don’t think shaking up the roster is the right move at this juncture. The Blazers would likely have to trade Ray, or package somebody like Jamal Crawford or Craig Smith, a role player with some value. I wouldn’t trade either Smith or Crawford, and if you trade Ray straight up for a point guard, you better be totally 100% sure that guys isn’t going to be worse.
• Standings watch: Portland came in Wednesday in sixth, one spot ahead of Memphis, and two spots ahead of Dallas. Houston, Dallas, and Utah lose, the Lakers win, and the Clippers lose. Portland and Memphis switch spots, the Lakers climb to eighth, and Dallas and Houston drop out.

Box Score

Standings

Blue Man Hoop

email me: mike.acker1@gmail.com

Twitter: @mikeacker | @ripcityproject

Jan 25, 2012; Oakland, CA, USA; Portland Trail Blazers small forward Nicolas Batum (88) shoots against the Golden State Warriors during the fourth quarter at Oracle Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jason O. Watson-US PRESSWIRE

LaMarcus Aldridge skys for a dunk over Stephen Curry, one of the few Blazer highlights Tuesday night. Photo courtesy of the Oregonian.

Nothing’s easy, Blazer fans should be well aware of that by this point. You could even take it one further. This season, and the last, everything has been hard. No doubt that’s why so many Portland fans were shocked, angry, and down right irate when given the opportunity to clinch a Playoff spot against an inferior opponent Tuesday night, the Blazers promptly channeled the Butler Bulldogs, bricked almost all their shots, and were run out of the gym by the Golden State Warriors.

Here’s the thing, though. Portland’s Playoff chances were so good, 99.9% by some calculations following the Blazers’ win last weekend over the Dallas Mavericks, a Houston Rockets loss midway through Tuesday’s first quarter was enough to guarantee Portland’s third straight trip to the post season. I’m sorry, but in my opinion that’s more important than losing this game. And I have some reasons.

First of all, Portland played absolutely terrible. You can bellyache about Brandon Roy playing horrible, complain about everybody getting beat to the glass, bemoan the shot selection, they are all valid complaints. But to say one is more valid than any other I would say is an exercise in futility. Not one Blazer had a good game. Not a single Blazer looked at all like a member of the team that in the last few weeks has beaten the Spurs, the Mavericks, and the Thunder, three of the top four teams in the Western Conference. If this game had come early in the season, we would likely be calling for lineup changes, rotation tinkering, those types of things that can be done to turn a losing team into a winning team. We’re way beyond that point now. Coach Nate McMillan said it best in his brief post-game wrap-up, burn the tape. There is nothing to be learned from this game. Throw it out; move on.

Second, Golden State is the kind of team that can beat Portland almost any night of the week. The Blazers have lost to the Warriors at least twice in each of the last four seasons. This is the kind of team that plays an up-tempo, freestyle type offense that can keep Portland from getting into their game. Tuesday, the Blazers never clicked offensively, and part of that was because of the offense from Golden State. The Warriors put three players in the neighborhood of 30 points. David Lee scored 29, Stephen Curry scored 28, and Monta Ellis hit the 30 mark on the nose. Ellis and Curry are amazing shooters that can get hot, stay hot, and blow teams away. David Lee is a streaky scorer, but has a history of big games against the often weak interior defense of the Blazers. When these three guys are all hitting, good luck. They don’t do it often, the reason why even if the Warriors won the rest of their games by 40 or more they would still fall way shy of the Playoffs. Late in the fourth quarter, I hope some of the more vitriolic Blazer bashers ditched Twitter and actually watched the offense of Steph Curry. This kid can flat out play.

So Portland clinches, but does it in an ignominious fashion. Like I said, I’ll take the Playoff spot, but it is true that the Blazers missed something of an opportunity. Portland is currently back in the sixth spot in the West, a full game ahead of New Orleans and two games back of Denver. The Nuggets lost Tuesday night to the Oklahoma City Thunder, so a win by Portland would have cut that margin in half. Although the likelihood is slim that the Blazers would catch the Nuggets, made slimmer still by Tuesday’s loss, there is always a chance that Portland could get caught and jumped by the Hornets.

The difference between sixth and seventh in the West is the difference between matching up with the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round, or the Dallas Mavericks. Certainly Portland would prefer to face Dallas given the choice. New Orleans has games to play still against the Rockets, the Suns, the Grizzlies, the Jazz, and the Mavericks. NOLA most likely will not run the table, but if they do win enough to force Portland to take on the defending Champions in the first round, we’ll undoubtedly point to this game as being the one that effectively ended the Blazer season.

If you’re a fan that looks for the bad in the good, as some Blazer fans, myself included, are wont to be, go right ahead and point the finger at this game. The Blazers didn’t show up, Brandon Roy look out of place on the court for maybe the first time in his life, and there was absolutely no fight in anybody in a Portland jersey to even attempt at a late comeback.

But if you’re a fan that searches for the silver lining, think of it this way. Portland is playing very well right now, matching up against some of the best teams in the league. Two weeks ago, before this brutal final stretch, we looked at the two Golden State games and the Utah Jazz game as the three games that were going to get this team over the hump and into the Playoffs. Well this team didn’t want to get to the final 16 by beating up on the bad teams, they wanted to do it by beating the good teams. And by beating the good teams they have put themselves in a situation to play a team in the Playoffs they have more or less handled throughout the regular season. All things considered, this team is in pretty good shape.

Portland now has four games left, two home and two away. The first of those games is Thursday in Salt Lake City against the faltering Utah Jazz, a team that Tuesday night cast off an eight game losing streak and a month of March in which they won only four games by beating the Los Angeles Lakers by a single point at the Staples Center.

Just one quick thing:

• I want to talk ever so briefly about Brandon Roy, the Blazer who has suddenly become the brunt of a lot of hatred, anger, and criticism, and then probably not talk about it ever again. I can’t disagree with anybody that says his game is awful right now, or that when he is in the game Portland’s offense has a tendency to under perform. I can, however, disagree with people that say his career is over, or that he is no longer any good, or that he is the anchor around the neck of this franchise and that he is destine to drag it down to the depths of the league. Brandon has not played well, there is no denying that, and there are major question marks about his future. But one thing is abundantly clear, he is trying to play, and he is trying to earn all the money that everybody know feels like he doesn’t deserve. Beyond that, it seems slightly unfair to take shots at the guy that resurrected this team, and made the Portland Trail Blazers relevant again in the best professional league in the world. Especially since those people that are throwing him under the right now are likely the same people that hailed him as the savior not two seasons ago when he literally could do no wrong. It’s hard to watch a guy struggle, especially since he is the undisputed face of the franchise. But insulting Brandon, or blaming him solely for the failures of a team, feels a lot like kicking a guy when he’s down. That’s just my opinion.

Marcus Camby is helped off the court by Wesley Matthews and trainer Jay Jensen after hitting his head on the court in the first half Tuesday night. Photo courtesy of the Oregonian.

Box Score

Standings

Twitter: @mikeacker | @ripcityproject