Tim Duncan walks off the floor in Utah after losing to the Jazz on a last-second three by Mo Williams. Credit: Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports

Two things to consider prior to Thursday’s game between the Blazers and the San Antonio Spurs.

First: The last time the Spurs played in Portland (back on November 10th), the combination of Gary Neal, Stephen Jackson, Manu Ginobili, and Tiago Splitter racked up an astonishing 63 points. At the same time, Sasha Pavlovic and Meyers Leonard lead the Blazers’ bench in scoring with two points apiece. It was following this game that Portland’s bench really emerged as maybe the worst in the league.

Second: When the Spurs last played on TNT, head coach Gregg Popovich sent Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and Danny Green home, and let his bench take on the Miami Heat. Pop garnered a nice fine ($250,000) and sparked a couple days of pretty cringe inducing (sorry I had to say it) Twitter debate. Also, the Spurs lost to the Heat by five, which very clearly should have been the story.

So what do those things mean for the Blazers Monday? Well…

Even if the Spurs rest their starters on Monday, which they probably won’t, Portland still doesn’t have much of a chance. They got beat up by San Antonio’s bench once already this season. There’s no reason why it won’t happen again.

Blazers Starting 5: PG Damian Lillard, SG Sasha Pavlovic, SF Nicolas Batum, PF LaMarcus Aldridge, C J.J. Hickson

Spurs Starting 5: PG Tony Parker, SG Gary Neal, SF Danny Green, PF Tim Duncan, C DeJaun Blair

As the unflappable Bobby Roberts of The Portland Mercury has already noted this fine Thursday afternoon, the narrative is set for the nationally televised Blazers/Spurs tilt. San Antonio is the veteran laden team of the last two decades. Portland is the definition of a work in progress that has already been leapfrogged in talent and performance by the Golden State Warriors and in hype by the Houston Rockets.

The Spurs are the team to watch and learn from. Unfortunately learning from a team whilst playing against that same team is a very difficult feat to accomplish. The Blazers hung with the Spurs the last time these two teams faced off, so anything is possible. San Antonio is coming off a loss, though, a very difficult loss that was caused almost entirely by two thing the Spurs almost never do: fail to deliver offensively down the stretch, and forget to lock down a shooter on a very important defensive possession.

With 18 wins under their belt and the second best record in the NBA to their name, you might think a Thursday in Portland is a game San Antonio might take off. But you count out the Spurs at your own discretion.

What to Watch For

• Again, who plays and how much. The Spurs are without Stephen Jackson and Kwahi Leonard. The Blazers are probably going to be without Wesley Matthews, and could possibly be short Nicolas Batum and Damian Lillard. I’m going to go on the record and say that Dame plays. Following Monday’s game, Damian said his ankle was fine, which made sense considering he played even after his “injury.” Certainly his questionable listing is precautionary more than anything. As for Nic and Wesley, my contention is bring them back if they’re 100%, otherwise it’s probably not prudent to force it at this point.
• Can the Blazers hang. Slow starts have plagued Portland most of the season. If Thursday’s game gets away from the Blazers early, it’s going to be very difficult to recover from. Hopefully Portland will make a three Thursday, because if they can’t it will be nearly impossible to make up for a big Spurs’ lead if/when that big Spurs’ is established.
• Will Victor Claver show improvement after his first start. I’ve listed Nicolas Batum as my starter for Thursday. He’s listed as questionable, and should he be scratched Victor Claver will be starting once again. Monday the Spanish rookie played 25 and a half minutes. He wasn’t horrible, but he did shoot 2-of-12 from the field and his +14 was the lowest of all Portland’s starters. Maybe one extended run was enough to get Claver his sea legs. We’ll have to wait and see.

@mikeacker | @ripcityproject | mike.acker1@gmail.com

LaMarcus Aldridge battled Tim Duncan all night, but it wasn’t enough to make up for a total lack of bench scoring. Credit: Steve Dykes-US PRESSWIRE

 

Blazers had a shot to tie a game where their bench was outscored 63-4.

— KJ_NBA (@KJ_NBA) November 11, 2012

That above statistic, the one that says Portland’s reserve unit was outscored by their San Antonio counterparts by 59 points, is probably the only one anybody will remember from Saturday night’s game. And here’s the thing: it is the only thing we should remember.

Last week it felt like the Blazers’ bench was an issue. This week, they’ve become a liability. A very compelling case can be made for San Antonio as the best team in the West. They’re deep, they’re talented, and they have basically the perfect combination of super talented veterans and “triumph against the odds” young guys who are hungry to make whatever kind of impact they can regardless of what it means for their person stature within the league or their individual stats or anything that could negatively impact the success of their team.

And Portland’s starting five hung with them. In fact, the Blazers lost Saturday night by three while their first five outscored San Antonio’s starters 105-49. Take away both benches, and the home team wins in a blowout. And to be fair, that’s why Portland’s bench is killing this team right now. Sure, they can’t score the ball to save their lives, but at the same time they can’t stop anybody. A bench that can’t score is one thing, as is bench that can’t make stops. Put the two things together, and you’ve got a team that will compete for 35 to 40 minutes a night and get absolutely destroyed for those remaining five to 12 minutes. Against some of the low level teams that won’t be a problem, but against contenders, Playoff teams, and NBA elites it means a lot of frustrating nights.

I know it’s only six games in, so it’s a bit early to be repeating myself, but because of Saturday night, I think it might be better to address the bench problem sooner rather than later. The reasons for that go beyond just the clear drop-off in talent from the top five to the next three off the bench. Through six games, Portland’s starters minutes per look like this: Nicolas Batum 39.5, LaMarcus Aldridge 38.7, Damian Lillard 37.8, Wesley Matthews 37.7, J.J. Hickson 28.2. Hickson’s minutes are a bit low since he was down around the 20 minute mark against the Clippers due to some good play from Meyers Leonard. Saturday, J.J. logged 34 minutes, the least among the starters, but still above his season average.

So, for the sake of argument, let’s say that Portland’s starters are hitting between 35 and 40 minutes a night, every night. Is that sustainable? If it’s not sustainable, what does this team look like when either a starter goes down with an injury or they inevitably have to rest? In two words: NOT GOOD. As is the Blazers can win between 25 and 30 games. One, even one, of Portland’s starters goes out for any extended period of time and you’re looking at a team that has a ceiling of 15 wins.

Certainly some will argue that 15 wins is better than 30. Thirty wins puts Portland in no-man’s land. Not a high enough win total to make the Playoffs; not a low enough win total to have a real chance at pulling a top-four draft pick. I agree that if you’re going to lose for draft position, you go all out. I disagree that losing for draft position should be Portland’s goal this season. Given what the Blazers’ starters are capable of, it seems logical to play to win, shooting for the bottom rung of the Playoffs in an effort to entice off-season acquisitions with a winning record, a couple All-Star level players, and a phenom PG in the making.

Taking that route might mean giving up a few potential unknown and unknowable pieces (draft picks), but when you have a team that’s at the most two solid players away from competing on some level, I think figuring out a way to lose games doesn’t make any sense.

Portland closes this win-less home-stand Monday against the Hawks. In my November preview, I had the Blazers getting two wins over their first three at home. So far they have none. A win against Atlanta is imperative if I hope to maintain my totally overblown reputation for making good predictions.

Couple of things:

• Patty Mills got the start for Tony Parker who was scratched pregame. For the most part Damian Lillard dominated Patty. However, Patty played better than expected. Considering that at one point Mills was little more than a cheerleader in Portland, it’s really cool to see him being successful with a great team like the Spurs.
• Tim Duncan pulled a critical and one against Damian Lillard in the final minutes of the fourth quarter Saturday night. It was a controversial decision to say the least. Post game, Terry Stotts disagreed with the call, saying that at best it should have been a no-call (implying that it could have also been called a charge). I totally agree that it was the wrong call, but anybody who is surprised that Tim Duncan gets the benefit of a foul call against Damian Lillard hasn’t watched very much NBA basketball.
• Post game I asked Terry Stotts if he’d talked at all with Damian about posting up against a smaller player like Patty Mills when the opposing team runs ball denial defense. He said no, and left it at that. Maybe it wasn’t the best time to ask. However, I think it will be beneficial to Damian to add a low-post element to his game at some point. Damian doesn’t have size on a lot of guards, but when he’s being checked by Patty Mills, who can be a bit of a ball hawk, and having trouble getting the ball into his hands to initiate the offense, getting post position can be a good way to contribute offensively without having to burn half the shot clock.
• Immediately after Saturday’s game ended, and the bench scoring numbers had been tabulated, the below video came to mind. Probably because it’s the first thing I think of when I hear somebody say “B Squad.”

Box Score

Standings

Air Alamo

@mikeacker | @ripcityproject | mike.acker1@gmail

November 9, 2012; Sacramento, CA, USA; San Antonio Spurs power forward Tim Duncan (21, left) argues with referee Ed Malloy (14, right) during the third quarter against the Sacramento Kings at Sleep Train Arena. The Spurs defeated the Kings 97-86. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE

The San Antonio Spurs have become something of a yearly punchline, in the exact opposite way that the Charlotte Bobcats are a yearly punchline. The joke goes, as far as the Spurs are concerned, that regardless of what San Antonio does, no matter who they add or who they lose, the pundits will forget about them in favor of the new hotness, and by the end of the season they will be right there with the league’s absolute best.

This season the ageless team has started 5-1. They look good. They are good. Even if they lose tonight or some other nights down the road, they are still probably the best team in the west. In fact, I wouldn’t be that surprised if they represented the west in the Finals.

The Blazers will have their hands full.

Blazers Starting 5: PG Damian Lillard, SG Wesley Matthews, SF Nicolas Batum, PF LaMarcus Aldridge, C J.J. Hickson

Spurs Starting 5: PG Patty Mills, SG Danny Green, SF Kawhi Leonard, PF Tim Duncan, C Boris Diaw

What to Watch For

• Can Portland take advantage of the fact Tony Parker is out of the lineup? Damian Lillard has run the proverbial gauntlet in his first two weeks as a pro. Tonight he gets a night off, of sorts, with Patty Mills taking the place of the injured French All-Star.
• If possible can Portland put this game away early? Now I think the Blazers will probably lose because from top to bottom San Antonio is a superior team. That being said, Portland plays the Spurs well at home. If the Blazers can jump out and get a big lead, there’s always a chance Gregg Popovich shuts the whole thing down early in the second half. The Spurs are old. They played last night. Their old guys need all the time off they can get.
• Can Portland keep it close? This is basically the opposite of the last thing to watch for. If the Blazers don’t jump out early, they’ll put themselves in the best possible place to get a win if they don’t let the Spurs get too far ahead. Unlike the Clippers, San Antonio won’t let Portland back in if they get a huge lead.

@mikeacker | @ripcityproject | mike.acker1@gmail.com