Feb 8, 2013; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Rockets center Omer Asik (3) rebounds the ball against the Portland Trail Blazers in the fourth quarter at the Toyota Center. The Rockets defeated the Trail Blazers 118-103. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Couple of things to keep in mind before we delve too deeply into Portland’s final showdown of 2012-13 with the Houston Rockets.

1) The first two games that featured Houston and Portland were must-see TV (both overtime victories by the Blazers one at home and one on the road), and the third was a blowout in favor of Houston. Rarely would you say that a big win by the Rockets was regression to the mean and back-to-back overtime wins by Portland are the outliers, but in this case it is my opinion that Houston is the significantly better team and fortune happened to back the Blazers in two games they probably should have lost.

2) Houston is everything Portland should (and hopefully does) aspire to be in 2013-14. They’re a young team with a strong scoring back-court, they play an up-tempo game that produces a lot of points and lots of highlights, and they are piloted by an out-and-out NBA superstar who is certainly a game-changer. Damian Lillard doesn’t have the beard game of James Harden, but he’s the kind of player who can have the type of impact on Portland Harden has had on Houston. Portland’s back-court of Lillard and Wesley Matthews can score, Nicolas Batum is blossoming into a reliable three-point shooter, and LaMarcus Aldridge is cementing his place as an All-Star regular, that’s a very similar core to the group that has led the Rockets back into the playoffs.

And

3) The Rockets are the hottest thing going in the NBA right now as far as the culture of the league is concerned. Daryl Morey (the Rocket’s GM who may or may not have sat next to me during a press dinner before Portland’s first playoff game of 08-09) has been a bit of a folk hero around certain corners of the NBA for years. This season, everything he’s preached is coming to fruition. Houston holds the seventh seed right now, but could move up to six (anything higher is out of reach at this point). Nothing is set in stone yet at either the top or bottom of the Western Conference. The Rockets could face either the Thunder or the Spurs if they stay in seventh or the Nuggets if they climb to sixth. None of those match-ups really favor Houston, but there are going to be a lot of people picking this team to be upset capable in the first round, upset capable with the caveat of “if they get hot.”

Blazers Starting 5: PG Damian Lillard, SG Wesley Matthews, SF Victor Claver, PF LaMarcus Aldridge, C J.J. Hickson

Rockets Starting 5: PG Jeremy Lin, SG James Harden, SF Chandler Parsons, PF Greg Smit, C Omer Asik

For starters, LaMarcus Aldridge playing is an interesting wrinkle. The Blazers have fallen apart on offense without LA, so bringing him back makes sense if Portland had something left to play for. We all know that they do not have anything left to play for (expect maybe avoiding a double-digit losing streak to end the season), so NOT playing LaMarcus Aldridge anymore makes plenty of sense to me. The Blazers feel differently than I do, though, so LA is in the lineup meaning Portland probably won’t look so discombobulated or play the uninspired offense we all saw on Wednesday against the Grizzlies.

The center position is going to be a bit of a wild card. Meyers Leonard has looked pretty good in his starts with LA on the bench, but with LaMarcus back, J.J. Hickson will likely be back at center. Hickson will struggle against Omer Asik (as would Meyers Leonard). The difference in my mind is that Leonard could draw Asik out of the middle with his 15- to 17-foot jumper, something Hickson won’t do. However, with LA back on the floor, the Blazers will have a jump-shooter out there. Whether or not Asik covers Hickson or LA could be an important indicator of how this game is going to go.

The best match-up of the night was probably going to be Nicolas Batum versus Chandler Parsons. Batum is (likely) out though, so we won’t get the chance to watch two of the best and most athletic young wings in the league go one-on-one. Victor Claver will have his hands full with Parsons, but Vic needs to continue to get better by playing against the best guys in the league at his position. I expect Parsons should have a big night. There’s a good chance that his scoring will be the difference maker.

And finally, the marquee match-ups of the evening will be the tag-team of Jeremy Lin and James Harden versus Damian Lillard and Wesley Matthews. Dame should have the advantage over Lin, that being said, what Portland gains at the point guard spot probably isn’t enough to off-set what they lose at the two. James Harden is going to be a very tough cover for Wesley Matthews. There’s no doubt Wes is up to the task, he just might be ineffective on offense since he’ll be working extra hard on the other end.

What to Watch For

• How much and how well will LaMarcus play. My guess is that LA wants to play because he wants to try and salvage some of what’s left of this season. What’s left, as we all know and I’ve said over and over, is not much, but still you can’t fault an All-Star for wanting to help his team save a little face. What we don’t want to see is LA getting hurt, or more hurt, in meaningless games. That’s only part of the story though. LaMarcus might not be in tip-top shape right now, it might take him awhile to get in rhythm, he might not be able to provide what he usually provides. It seems like a lose-lose proposition for me. Anyway… How LA plays could very well determine whether or not Portland competes in this one, how long he plays could determine just exactly what the big idea is with bringing him back at all.
• Portland’s bench. With LA back in the lineup, the bench is reshuffled down one peg. That means that Joel Freeland might not get any minutes and Meyers Leonard will have to once again play behind J.J. Hickson. The hope is that Leonard and Freeland (if he plays) don’t have a precipitous drop-off with fewer minutes. Those guys need to get the reps right now. Hopefully they’ll both get at least a little PT, and hopefully they’ll be able to maximize that PT.
• Can the Blazers keep it close, and if they can’t how long before Terry Stotts shuts it down. Houston might turn this into a blowout very quickly. If they do, how long will it take for Stotts to pull his starters (and by starters I mean LaMarcus Aldridge)? Stotts has been given a bit of free reign in his first season as Portland’s head coach. It’s been months since the media questioned whether or not it was sustainable for the Blazers to have four guys averaging around 35 minutes a night, and the minutes haven’t dropped all that much for Portland’s top four. Stotts also hasn’t been second guessed on some of his lineup choices (such as keeping Will Barton out of the rotation entirely and playing Nolan Smith at all) very often. It makes sense that Stotts has avoided some of the more probing questions considering his team has done remarkably well with regards to what this season could have been. That being said, it stands to reason that leaving his regular rotation guys in during a blowout when there are precious few game situations remaining for guys like Barton, Victor Claver, and Joel Freeland to continue their acclimation to the NBA game might draw the attention of more than a few attentive local writers/commentators.

@mikeacker | @ripcityproject | mike.acker1@gmail.com

Feb 8, 2013; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Rockets shooting guard James Harden (13) takes a shot against the Portland Trail Blazers in the fourth quarter at the Toyota Center. The Rockets defeated the Trail Blazers 118-103. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

If every win is of equal value, which I think it really is, then so too must every loss be created equal. So remember that while looking at the box score from Friday night and doing whatever it is you do to recover from the type of beat down the Houston Rockets put on the Blazers.

Certainly it’s important to note that this most recent loss puts Portland back to .500. It’s also important to mention that losing to the Rockets slides the Blazers to three games down from Houston in the win column and one game down in the loss column for the 8th seed in the Western Conference. But despite those two factors, Portland will be best served by not dwelling on the fact that they gave up 60% shooting from the field and 46% shooting from three and were never really in this game.

You know why the Blazers need to forget about this game as soon as possible? Because through 50 games they are in the hunt for the post-season. They might not get there, but they’re hanging tough. If they get bogged down by one lopsided loss to a hot shooting team built to run poor defending teams out of their gym, we’ll be at game 60, looking back on a 12-game losing streak, dreaming of those days back in January when our team was getting their named tossed into the Playoff conversation.

One loss doesn’t sink the season (whatever you think the season should be), not even if, had the outcome been the opposite in the favor of Portland, we would be deluged with stories about how the Blazers were officially a Playoff team.

They may, or may not be a Playoff team, the rest of the games left on the schedule will decide that. Winning on Friday would have been huge, I’m not going to lie, but it wouldn’t have gotten Portland in the Playoffs, just like losing on Friday, as much as it was tough to watch all things considered, doesn’t necessarily exclude them from the Playoffs. That’s a roundabout way of saying that there’s still a long way to go.

Should we talk about the game a little bit? I mean, the Blazers were kind enough to play all 48 minutes of it, the least we can do is break it down some.

I said Portland should let James Harden go off Friday, and if they did, they’d be doing themselves a favor. Well, Harden shot 13-of-16 from the field and 4-of-5 from three for 35 points. He basically did whatever he wanted. So, even if it wasn’t the game-plan, the Blazers did basically what I said they should do. And they got absolutely pasted for their efforts. Here’s why. I also said they needed to not get beaten by the rest of the Rockets not named James Harden.

Houston’s stat line broke down thus: Jeremy Lin 6-of-10 from the field and 2-of-3 from three for 16 points, Chandler Parsons 8-of-14 from the field and 4-of-8 from three for 20 points, and Patrick Patterson 8-of-11 from the field for 16 points. Not world-beater numbers, to be sure, but also not the type of numbers you’d like to see coming at you if you’re the Blazers.

Beyond that, it’s hard to really point to where things went wrong for Portland on Friday. The best that I can come up with is that the Blazers and the Rockets are essentially built to succeed in the same way. Both teams like to get out and run with play-makers running the point and shooters spacing the floor. The difference Friday was that Houston was sharp where Portland was the opposite of sharp.

Neither the Rockets nor the Blazers have perfected this method of play, and it’s hard to say which team will get there first. I’m up and down on Jeremy Lin, I believe he could do himself a major favor by trying to figure out how to play within himself. James Harden is the real deal. Chandler Parsons might be close to his ceiling, but he’s already proven to be of serious value, same with Patrick Patterson. Omer Asik is a bit of an X-Factor.

As for Portland, Damian Lillard is basically perfect for the system being run by Terry Stotts, same for LaMarcus Aldridge and Nicolas Batum. J.J. Hickson is a one-term Blazer. Wesley Matthews is the Blazers’ X-Factor. Given those two rosters and what’s available in the way of cap space and potential free agent signings, I’d say Portland has more room for growth while Houston is where the Blazers will probably want to be by next season at the latest. When playing a team that is traveling on the same path but a little further along in their development, it makes sense to get blown out one time out of three.

Like I said, forget about it and move on.

The Blazers continue their road trip in Orlando on Sunday. The Magic are one of the teams Portland should beat on this swing. Again, it’s not time to pack it up should they lose, I’m just saying that if they want to give themselves a chance at all at the post season, they can’t lose to the Magic.

Couple of quick things:

• I’m formulating something in my head to write about Meyers Leonard. I’ll tease it by saying his performance Friday night (0-of-3 from the field, 1-of-2 from the free throw line, three rebounds, one assist, and one point) was nothing abnormal for him, and that as far as the long-term rebuilding plans go for the Blazers, it’s not a good sign. I’ll leave it at that for now.
• Nicolas Batum shot 7-of-12 from the field and 4-of-8 from three for 24 points. Hopefully his slump is over. Sadly, while Nic was good, or at least better on Friday, Wesley Matthews was bad. Wes shot 1-of-9 from the field and 0-of-6 from three. He finished with 2 points. Two points from Matthews is not enough if Portland wants to win.
• Victor Claver played 22 and a half minutes and scored five points, some in meaningful minutes. Progress is progress.
• James Harden is good. The James Harden is good because he’s no longer in OKC narrative is staid and tired. The James Harden is a lot better than everybody thought he was going to be narrative is even more tired and even more staid. Dude was the third pick overall. He’s always been good.

Standings

Box Scores

@mikeacker | @ripcityproject | mike.acker1@gmail.com

Feb 8, 2013; Houston, TX, USA; Portland Trail Blazers point guard Damian Lillard (0) looks at the scoreboard against the Houston Rockets in the third quarter at the Toyota Center. The Rockets defeated the Trail Blazers 118-103. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Portland looks to go 3-0 over the Rockets on Friday in Houston, a battle between the number eight and nine teams in the Western Conference. Credit: Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports

If Portland can hold Houston under 100 tonight, they should win, Rockets 4-14 when held under 100, 23-11 when scoring 100+

— Pinwheel Empire (@pinwheelempire) February 8, 2013

The Houston Rockets lost to the Miami Heat Wednesday night 114-108. Until two nights ago, the last time Houston lost while still scoring at least 100 points happened on 16th of January in Dallas. They last won while scoring less than 100 points way back on Boxing Day of 2012 when they beat the Timberwolves in Minnesota 87-84. The Rockets got 30 points from James Harden that night.

Houston can score (they’ve gone over 100 seven straight times, 12 times in January, and all three times they’ve played in February). James Harden can score even when his team doesn’t score. That much we know. It also seems pretty clear that when the Rockets are held to less than 100 points, they’re incredibly vulnerable.

The Blazers gave up 105 points in their loss to the Dallas Mavericks Wednesday night. Prior to that, Portland had gone three straight games without letting their opponent score in the triple digits. The Blazers (8-8 for the month of January) gave up 100 points in only half of their games last month.

Portland, at this point, is not known as a defensive stalwart, but occasionally they can play a little bit of defense. On that note, knowing that the Rockets win when they score a lot (and they can score A LOT, just ask Mark Jackson), expect the Blazers to emphasize defense in their game plan Friday night when they take on the Rockets in Houston for the second time in 2012-13 (their third match-up in total).

Defense, and maybe overtime. In case you forgot, Portland is 2-0 this season against the Rockets. Both of those wins have come in overtime games. I know shooting for overtime is never ideal, but you know what they say, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

Blazers Starting 5: PG Damian Lillard, SG Wesley Matthews, SF Nicolas Batum, PF LaMarcus Aldridge, C J.J. Hickson

Rockets Starting 5: PG Jeremy Lin, SG James Harden, SF Chandler Parsons, PF Patrick Patterson, C Omer Asik

Beating any NBA team three times in a row is tough business. Beating the Rockets for the third time this season might just be the most important thing the 2012-13 Blazers can hope to do. As of right now, Houston is a single game ahead of Portland for the eighth spot in the Western Conference. The Playoffs are the goal of this Blazer team, regardless of whether or not you as a fan agree with it. Getting into the Playoffs could very well come down to the head-to-head match-up between the Rockets and the Blazers. If Portland wins on Friday, they’ve got the head-to-head tiebreaker locked up.

Aside from continuing to win more games than they lose, there is nothing more important to the future of this Blazer season than beating the Houston Rockets Friday evening.

How do the Blazers go about beating the Rockets, the highest scoring team (in total points) in the NBA? Conventional wisdom would say Portland needs to stop James Harden. The Western Conference’s newest new marquee player isn’t quite an unstoppable force, but he’s a tough cover. Throwing everything but the kitchen sink at him might slow Harden down, but hoping to stop him might be wishful thinking.

Here’s my advice, don’t try to stop James Harden, maybe don’t defend him at all. If you’re the Blazers, you have to make the rest of the Houston Rockets beat you. Jeremy Lin has proven to be more than just a one-hit wonder, eve if he’s not an elite guard like James Harden. Chandler Parsons is a dead-eye shooter. leaving him to  help on James Harden is a recipe for disaster. Patrick Patterson is LaMarcus Aldridge light from mid-range and the kind of finisher at the rim that we all wish LA could be. Omer Asik is Omer Asik, if you don’t know about what he brings to the table than you haven’t been paying attention.

That’s a good crop of young talent. Add James Harden, and their good enough to get into the post season and probably take at least a game off whoever they face. But many of these players are elevated because of the attention James Harden gets. Play Harden straight up, and that limits the open looks for Parsons from deep and the put-backs from Patterson and Asik at the rim. Let Harden go for 40 (or even 50), I don’t think that he can beat the Blazers on his own, even if he’s legitimately one of the best scorers in the league.

What to Watch For

• Nicolas Batum vs. Chandler Parsons. We all know that Nicolas is suffering from an injured wrist. That injury has limited his offensive ability; he’s gone four straight games with fewer than 10 field goal attempts. His longest streak without at least 10 shots a game in 2012-13 prior to this run was two. Some are certainly calling for Nicolas to be sidelined until he’s 100%. I’m not for that. Certainly the training staff knows of the situation and is advising Terry Stotts and Nic. If they think he shouldn’t play, he wouldn’t be playing. That said, if he physically can play, he needs to be in his normal spot in the line-up and rotation. Nicolas is primed for a slump breaking game, even with the injury. If he can find a way to score without the long ball (at the rim or from the line), he could breakout on Friday. But regardless of his offense, Batum needs to show up on defense against the Rockets. For my money, Chandler Parsons is the unexpected occurrence of the Houston Rockets. James Harden was great on the Thunder, it stood to reason that he’d be extra great without the dual Albatrosses of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook to deal with. Jeremy Lin is Jeremy Lin. It’s a bit of a shock that he’s hanging in the league, but it’s not the kind of follow-up story to Linsanity some people wanted. The most captivating player the NBA has seen maybe ever turns out to be basically a serviceable, mid-level starting point guard isn’t quite the hot-seller that sells papers around the world. But Chandler Parsons, though, is a real emerging story for Houston. Taken with the eighth pick in the second round of the 2011 NBA Draft, Parsons has developed into a solid third or even second scoring option. He can shoot and he can attack the rim. With Chase Budinger no longer on the Rocket’s roster, and Carlos Delfino being pretty inconsistent, the minutes are there for Parsons, and he’s taken advantage of them. If the Blazers take my advice and don’t worry about James Harden getting his, keeping Chandler Parsons from getting his could be the difference between winning and losing.
•  Inside scoring. Chandler Parsons versus Nicolas Batum is important match-up number one (again if we assume that Portland just lets James Harden score as much as he can), so important match-up number two will be the combination of Patrick Patterson and Omer Asik versus the combination of LaMarcus Aldridge versus J.J. Hickson. LA has been rolling as of late. In his last six games he’s shot over 60% from the field three times and 50% from the field once. He has an advantage over Patrick Patterson in that he’s a better shooter. Patterson, though, will try to take LA into the post. That might not be so great for LaMarcus. To get the better of Houston’s young and strong power forward, LA will have to make sure he hits his jumpers, gets fouled in the lane if/when he goes in there, and avoids fouling at all costs. If Aldridge gets into foul trouble, Patterson will eat up Jared Jeffries if Stotts stays big or Luke Babbitt and Victor Claver if Stotts goes small. As for Asik versus Hickson, this is the kind of game that will probably make Hickson detractors very happy. J.J. won’t be able to contain Asik in the post. He probably also won’t be able to effectively attack the rim against the Rockets’ big man. Parsons is much more capable of putting up big numbers than either Patrick Patterson or Omer Asik, but if Houston’s scoring advantage in the paint is in the double digits, Portland probably loses.
• Bench play. Every Blazer needs to be on the top of their game Friday to give Portland their best chance at winning. That means that every dude coming off the bench has to contribute something. That means no empty shifts from Meyers Leonard, and no major scoring droughts. The style of both teams, and the wide-open play Friday’s game is likely to have might favor a guy like Will Barton. Maybe he has a big game. If Barton has a big game, he could be a difference maker.

@mikeacker | @ripcityproject | mike.acker1@gmail.com