The one thing that is firmly working in Portland’s favor: history. Portland’s recent dominance over the Lakers at the Rose Garden should keep the Blazer faithful at the very least hopeful. BEAT LA chants seem to be working as the Blazers have won 8 straight over the Lakers in the RG, with the last L coming on February 23rd 2005.  The Blazers started Nick Van Exel,  Damon Stoudamire, Ruben Patterson, Zach Randolph and Joel Pryzbilla. Damn indeed. We can stretch this whole ‘Blazers own LA in Portland’ thing a little furthur. Fun fact: Dating back to 2000 the Blazers have won 14 of the last 16 over LA in the RG. And this is with an assortment of teams, so history is on Portland’s side.

Also on Portland’s side: the Lakers come into tonight struggling. And by struggling I mean the Laker kind of struggling, not the real kind of struggling. Yes they are two different things, but ill take a Laker team ‘struggling’. I mean they’ve only won 10 of their last 13, lord knows they have an ugly win (Houston) and lose (at the Clippers) and all of a sudden they are struggling. They will be without Pau Gasol which is good news for our depleted frontline. We’ve struggled with teams with strong frontlines (Kaman/Camby, Z-Bo/M.Gasol) so I’m almost certain that Boom Boom Pau and Bynum would have eaten our souls. They are coming off a loss to the Clippers in which they only managed to put up 91 points, or 4 less than a depleted Blazer squad did against that very same team. Is this paragraph just me trying to muster up so hope…absolutely but stick with me. Kobe has been an absolute murderer this year and we know he likes to do hoodrat things with his friends when he’s in Portland. Always dangerous. Their bench is a bit iffy, but it’s going to take a lot to stop Kobe/Bynum/Odom/Artest.

Keys to the game

Get off to a quick start: This is an absolute must. There is going to be a lot of energy in that building tonight. The Blazers need a lot of energy at the start to get the Rose Garden going and to get the Lakers heads down. They’ve acknowledged their struggles in Portland so a strong start will make them think ‘not this again’. Portland’s going to have to outwork them to win anyways so why not start from the jump.

Don’t get murdered in the paint: We gave up 54 points in the paint to Memphis. We have no shotblocker/shot-alterer/really tall guy who can be a defensive presence. I’m not sure we have the length or size to bother Andrew Bynum. We just have to keep the paint casualties at a minimum. Not-so-fun-fact: The Lakers are 12-2 when Bynum scores 17 or more points. Gulp, indeed.

I’ll be the first to admit that ever since the Blazers were eliminated, I’ve been in a bit of a malaise when it comes to writing about the playoffs. I’ve sat and watched every game but I for the life of me haven’t been able to spit out a word about it. Nothing like a pair of Game 7′s to change that. David Stern faces a dream scenario/slight nightmare as the Lakers and Celtics are on the verge of elimination.

• Lakers/Rockets

I can’t remember a series that has bothered me as much as this one. I can’t stand the Lakers (and never will) yet can’t quite bring myself to “cheer” for the Rockets. Don’t get me wrong, I respect the hell out of this Rocket bunch for perservering without Yao and T-Mac…but I can’t quite cheer for them. Everytime Scola misses a mid-range jumper I think of the 8023 he made against Portland and get mad. Or when Ron Artest gets T’s or starts acting crazy, things he conveniently forgot to do last series. I’m ranting, so I’ll stop because I sound like a baby. To win this game, Houston needs something resembling some offense to show up. The defense and the effort are going to be there, but will the scoring? Everyone is going to have to chip in, Houston doesn’t have that one guy who can carry the team. Brooks, Scola, Landry, Wafer, Battier, Lowry are all going to have to do their part. The Lakers are in more trouble than I think anyone really knows. That being said they are still in the driver’s seat. Their main focus should be presenting something that resembles championship defense, a piece of the pie they’ve lost in translation over the past year. All they have to do is defend Houston and they’ll win easy. Seriously, I’m not trying to be Captain Obvious but if the Lakers focus everything on defending the Rockets they will win. Houston doesn’t have a ton of firepower. You get Brooks, Artest or Scola struggling and the Rockets are toast. You know what Pau, Odom and co. can do offensively, but if they don’t defend and put some doubt in Houston’s minds it won’t matter. Because Chuck Hayes and guard Pau, Artest can guard Odom and Battier can guard Kobe. LA only needs is one break and it’s over. If Battier or Chuck Hayes gets in foul trouble early….whole new ballgame.

Let’s not forget this though people…Kobe Bryant does not have a sterling record in elimination games. I got this idea from JA Adande’s piece on Kobe and Phil’s legacy and it is pretty true. Kobe needs a big game here to shake that label off. Sidenote….Anyone else remember last time the Lakers were “destined” to go to the Finals and faced the Rockets?

I would love to see Sasha Vujacic playing the Michael Cooper role in this video. Make it happen.

• Boston/Orlando:

For the C’s they are going as far as Rondo, Pierce and Allen take them. If Ray Allen’s knees had made the trip to Orlando for Game 6 this series would have been over. I’d almost guarantee he doesn’t go 0-for-7 from behind the arc. What intrigues me is what Rondo does in this game. In Game 6, Orlando decided to stop guarding Rondo. Seriously SVG basically said ‘Whatever, dog’ and his man just went and doubled Pierce repeatedly. How he handles that in Game 7 is key. Also key for Boston…attacking the basket. Orlando is a jump-shooting team and you’re really doing them favors by settling and shooting jumpers with them. When Boston has attacked the basket, good things have generally gone their way. Orlando has got to hope that Rashard Lewis becomes the $17-milllion dollar man and not the Virgil to Stan Van Gundy’s Ted DiBiase. They also need Hedo Turkoglu to show up early and often. I’m not trying to jump on the bash Dwight Howard express, but it’s not like they can pencil him in for 20-20. He could do anything today. And even with his 20-20 performance, the Magic still should have lost that game. What concerns me about Orlando is how they will handle this situation. I remember watching Game 6 and during a timeout Stan Van Gundy was saying “EVERY SHOT FROM HERE ON OUT HAS TO BE A GOOD SHOT, NO WASTED POSSESSIONS” or something like that and in the back of my head I was like….way to put more pressure on your team. He gets tight and this team could very likely get tight. Or have to depend on Rafer Alston to make good decisions in a Game 7. Ask Houston fans how well that tends to go.

Gotta go with the C’s here.

As much as it pains and almost disgusts me to say it, you can’t say Mike Brown shouldn’t have won it. Generally speaking, as of late the COY has tended to go to a coach who has taken his team from the bottom to the top (Sam Mitchell, Mike D’Antoni, Hubie Brown) or a coach who has exceeded expectations either for himself or that team (Avery Johnson). This year the team with the best record won it and you can’t say it isn’t deserved. (You can say that 98% of this award should go to LeBron James, the other 1% to Danny Ferry and Mike Brown should get 1%. Had to get a dig in.) Cleveland was at a different level all season and when you win 66 games and nearly set an NBA-record for home-court dominance…you’re doing something right. Other than that and the fact that he has LeBron, Brown has actually shown a level of competence on the offensive side of the ball. Shocking right? Well…to be honest, just like the Blazers there wasn’t anywhere for Brown to go but up. Three straight years of the ’here LeBron, take the ball and do you and I’ll just make crazy faces on the sideline’ offense he showcased. And that offense is still around…it’s just a little more subtle….at times. And really his consistent dumb-dumbness on the offensive end was what was keeping him in the ‘bad coach’ category. Now he’s Coach of the Year. Sam Mitchell has one of those too. *shudder*

Onto Nate McMillan. I’m more than ok with Nate finishing fourth. It’s good for him to at least get some (well-deserved) attention and respect after this season. Not enough credit has been thrown his way this year for all he has done. He molded and bended his coaching style to fit this team. He got a young team to buy in, play hard every night, play smart and stay together for a whole year. I credit Nate for this team consistently showing up night-in and night-out. For a young team in progress as they were in October, to steadily improve all year and not take any steps backwards is a huge credit to the coaching staff. Even towards the end of the year they learned the value of kicking the lower-tiered opponents teeth down their throat. Say what you want about the emergence of Brandon Roy and a host of others, but Nate did a lot more than I feel like most people are giving him credit for. He’s handled all of this talent very well and I have no complaints with him as the head coach of this team, not a single one.Very impressive season if you ask me. The homer in me wants to argue that he deserved it more than Van Gundy, but it’s all good in the end. He got more first-place votes than anyone other than Mike Brown so I’ll take solace in that. The media loves the whole ‘Houston held it together without T-Mac’ storyline so of course Adelman got those votes.

Lastly, I’m disgusted that Mike Woodson got equal voting as Phil Jackson. Really? Mike Woodson. I know Phil doesn’t need Coach of the Year and won’t get considered unless he wins 70 games or something, but lets be real people. Mike Woodson and Phil Jackson are on different coaching universes. Also, Vinny Del Negro getting the same amount of first place votes as Phil is laughable. As is Tony DiLeo even getting a vote. He should keep that on his fridge when he goes back to the front offense.