Monta Ellis and the Warriors have had their way with the Blazers in Oakland for a very long time. Photo courtesy of SF Gate.

Blazers: 11-7 (4th Northwest Division)

Warriors: 5-11 (5th Pacific Division)

Game Details: ORACLE Arena, Oakland, CA. 7:30 PM. TV: KGW Radio: KXTG (750 AM)

Projected Portland Starting Lineup: PG Raymond Felton (#5, 6’1”, North Carolina), SG Wesley Matthews (#2, 6’5″, Marquette), SF Gerald Wallace (#3, 6’7″, Alabama), PF LaMarcus Aldridge (#12, 6’11″, Texas), C Marcus Camby (#23, 6’11″, UMass)

Projected Golden State Starting Lineup: PG Monta Ellis (#8, 6’3”, Lanier HS, Jackson, MS), SG Stephen Curry (#30, 6’3”, Davidson), SF Dorell Wright (#1, 6’9”, South Kent Prep HS, Lawndale, CA), PF David Lee (#10, 6’9”, Florida), C Andris Biedrins (#15, 7′, Riga, Latvia)

I fear that I’m about to start sounding like a broken record here, but this is a very important game, and not just because Portland needs to win out to match my predicted 11 wins for January. This is an important game because the Blazers need to prove they can beat an inferior team on the road, this is an important game because Portland needs to to show that three games in a row isn’t too much to overcome, and its an important game because the Blazers have only won once in the last 12 times they’ve played in Oakland.

The Warriors are not a good team right now, in fact they are second to last in the Western Conference, but that doesn’t really mean anything. Golden State plays the kind of game that Portland has trouble with, they push they pace, they take a lot of shots, and they try to create steals. The Blazers faced a much better version of the Warriors Tuesday, and did well. Unfortunately, Memphis is also a much more disciplined team than Golden State, and playing loose lends itself to the Warriors’ style. Meaning that as the Warriors flies off the rails, they are a lot more dangerous.

This game is going to be a lot like Monday’s game, minus the home court advantage for the Blazers. What Portland needs to do is figure out a way to play their kind of game. A more measured, well paced game, that includes a significant amount of half court offense and defense. Golden State can’t defend Portland in the half court, and they can score on the Blazers in half court sets, or at least, scoring in the half court isn’t what they do best.

What they do best is run and shoot. The Blazers need to limit turnovers, thus keeping a lid on the total number of fast break points. If Portland continues to cough up the ball on Wednesday the way they did Tuesday, they are in for a long night.

Another thing the Blazers need to do is try to make the Warriors make mistakes. This is a young team, with a first year coach. When they lost to Memphis at home on Monday night, they basically gave the game away in the fourth quarter. Down one, with no timeouts and no shot clock, the only shot Monta Ellis could get was a heaved corner three that barely drew iron. They make a lot of bad plays. If Portland can play tough defense, and make Golden State work, they should be able to get the Warriors to play themselves into a hole, or maybe even out of the game.

I’ll leave it at that, this is the third game in three nights, and I’m sure everybody is having a little blog reading fatigue.

Couple of things to watch for:

• Gerald Wallace: I say it every night. Gerald Wallace is key. Again, Golden State doesn’t have the personnel to stop him, so he should be able to get anything he wants at any time. That being said, Crash has had trouble in his last few outings, and got worked over pretty hard in Tuesday’s win. I think tonight might just be Gerald’s big breakout game on the road.
• Will somebody step up, and where will they come from: These Blazers are going to be tired. Somebody is going to have to bring some energy, and very likely it’s going to have to come off the bench. I like Nicolas Batum, it could also come from Craig Smith. However, there’s a possibility it will come from an even less likely source. Nolan Smith has looked ready to have a coming-out kind of night, and you never know, third game in three nights coach Nate McMillan might finally reach back and lift Elliot Williams off the end of the bench. An athlete like that, he most definitely is not tired.
• Can Portland take advantage of this team: Golden State has to know that they’ve had Portland’s number the last few years. Maybe they will overlook the Blazers. It’s unlikely, but any time a team thinks they’ve got a win in the bad because of the historical record, they are vulnerable.

email me: mike.acker1@gmail.com

Twitter: @mikeacker | @ripcityproject

LaMarcus Aldridge skys for a dunk over Stephen Curry, one of the few Blazer highlights Tuesday night. Photo courtesy of the Oregonian.

Nothing’s easy, Blazer fans should be well aware of that by this point. You could even take it one further. This season, and the last, everything has been hard. No doubt that’s why so many Portland fans were shocked, angry, and down right irate when given the opportunity to clinch a Playoff spot against an inferior opponent Tuesday night, the Blazers promptly channeled the Butler Bulldogs, bricked almost all their shots, and were run out of the gym by the Golden State Warriors.

Here’s the thing, though. Portland’s Playoff chances were so good, 99.9% by some calculations following the Blazers’ win last weekend over the Dallas Mavericks, a Houston Rockets loss midway through Tuesday’s first quarter was enough to guarantee Portland’s third straight trip to the post season. I’m sorry, but in my opinion that’s more important than losing this game. And I have some reasons.

First of all, Portland played absolutely terrible. You can bellyache about Brandon Roy playing horrible, complain about everybody getting beat to the glass, bemoan the shot selection, they are all valid complaints. But to say one is more valid than any other I would say is an exercise in futility. Not one Blazer had a good game. Not a single Blazer looked at all like a member of the team that in the last few weeks has beaten the Spurs, the Mavericks, and the Thunder, three of the top four teams in the Western Conference. If this game had come early in the season, we would likely be calling for lineup changes, rotation tinkering, those types of things that can be done to turn a losing team into a winning team. We’re way beyond that point now. Coach Nate McMillan said it best in his brief post-game wrap-up, burn the tape. There is nothing to be learned from this game. Throw it out; move on.

Second, Golden State is the kind of team that can beat Portland almost any night of the week. The Blazers have lost to the Warriors at least twice in each of the last four seasons. This is the kind of team that plays an up-tempo, freestyle type offense that can keep Portland from getting into their game. Tuesday, the Blazers never clicked offensively, and part of that was because of the offense from Golden State. The Warriors put three players in the neighborhood of 30 points. David Lee scored 29, Stephen Curry scored 28, and Monta Ellis hit the 30 mark on the nose. Ellis and Curry are amazing shooters that can get hot, stay hot, and blow teams away. David Lee is a streaky scorer, but has a history of big games against the often weak interior defense of the Blazers. When these three guys are all hitting, good luck. They don’t do it often, the reason why even if the Warriors won the rest of their games by 40 or more they would still fall way shy of the Playoffs. Late in the fourth quarter, I hope some of the more vitriolic Blazer bashers ditched Twitter and actually watched the offense of Steph Curry. This kid can flat out play.

So Portland clinches, but does it in an ignominious fashion. Like I said, I’ll take the Playoff spot, but it is true that the Blazers missed something of an opportunity. Portland is currently back in the sixth spot in the West, a full game ahead of New Orleans and two games back of Denver. The Nuggets lost Tuesday night to the Oklahoma City Thunder, so a win by Portland would have cut that margin in half. Although the likelihood is slim that the Blazers would catch the Nuggets, made slimmer still by Tuesday’s loss, there is always a chance that Portland could get caught and jumped by the Hornets.

The difference between sixth and seventh in the West is the difference between matching up with the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round, or the Dallas Mavericks. Certainly Portland would prefer to face Dallas given the choice. New Orleans has games to play still against the Rockets, the Suns, the Grizzlies, the Jazz, and the Mavericks. NOLA most likely will not run the table, but if they do win enough to force Portland to take on the defending Champions in the first round, we’ll undoubtedly point to this game as being the one that effectively ended the Blazer season.

If you’re a fan that looks for the bad in the good, as some Blazer fans, myself included, are wont to be, go right ahead and point the finger at this game. The Blazers didn’t show up, Brandon Roy look out of place on the court for maybe the first time in his life, and there was absolutely no fight in anybody in a Portland jersey to even attempt at a late comeback.

But if you’re a fan that searches for the silver lining, think of it this way. Portland is playing very well right now, matching up against some of the best teams in the league. Two weeks ago, before this brutal final stretch, we looked at the two Golden State games and the Utah Jazz game as the three games that were going to get this team over the hump and into the Playoffs. Well this team didn’t want to get to the final 16 by beating up on the bad teams, they wanted to do it by beating the good teams. And by beating the good teams they have put themselves in a situation to play a team in the Playoffs they have more or less handled throughout the regular season. All things considered, this team is in pretty good shape.

Portland now has four games left, two home and two away. The first of those games is Thursday in Salt Lake City against the faltering Utah Jazz, a team that Tuesday night cast off an eight game losing streak and a month of March in which they won only four games by beating the Los Angeles Lakers by a single point at the Staples Center.

Just one quick thing:

• I want to talk ever so briefly about Brandon Roy, the Blazer who has suddenly become the brunt of a lot of hatred, anger, and criticism, and then probably not talk about it ever again. I can’t disagree with anybody that says his game is awful right now, or that when he is in the game Portland’s offense has a tendency to under perform. I can, however, disagree with people that say his career is over, or that he is no longer any good, or that he is the anchor around the neck of this franchise and that he is destine to drag it down to the depths of the league. Brandon has not played well, there is no denying that, and there are major question marks about his future. But one thing is abundantly clear, he is trying to play, and he is trying to earn all the money that everybody know feels like he doesn’t deserve. Beyond that, it seems slightly unfair to take shots at the guy that resurrected this team, and made the Portland Trail Blazers relevant again in the best professional league in the world. Especially since those people that are throwing him under the right now are likely the same people that hailed him as the savior not two seasons ago when he literally could do no wrong. It’s hard to watch a guy struggle, especially since he is the undisputed face of the franchise. But insulting Brandon, or blaming him solely for the failures of a team, feels a lot like kicking a guy when he’s down. That’s just my opinion.

Marcus Camby is helped off the court by Wesley Matthews and trainer Jay Jensen after hitting his head on the court in the first half Tuesday night. Photo courtesy of the Oregonian.

Box Score

Standings

Twitter: @mikeacker | @ripcityproject

Andre Miller and his red shoes were not enough to get Portland a Christmas Day victory in Oakland. Photo courtesy of the AP.

It’s not the Christmas present the Blazers probably wanted, but given the way Portland played down the stretch, it was the present they deserved. Put Golden State next to Portland, and most nights out of the year the Blazers are the better team. Factor in too many turnovers, cold shooting from LaMarcus Aldridge, and a white-hot night from Monta Ellis, and that equation changes. Portland wins the game when Monta doesn’t have the ball, when Monta does have the ball they lose. Saturday, Monta had the ball a lot. That’s it and that’s all.

Portland had their moments in this one, let’s not forget that, but they just didn’t come at the right time. Saturday should have been yet another big night for LaMarcus Aldridge. Golden State doesn’t have a single guy that can cover him one-on-one, but LA was back to not attacking the rim. A few times getting he even got into the lane, but held off on the lay-up or the dunk because David Lee and Lou Amundson was in the way. With the few days Portland had off following LA’s breakout nights, the All-Star buzz was in mild to full effect, of course. If LaMarcus wants to be considered for the All-Star Game, which at this point he should be consider but not selected, he needs to take it to guys like Lee and Amundson. He didn’t, and that really handicapped the Blazers.

Above everything that happened Saturday, it was the turnovers that spelled doom for the Blazers. The turnover that was the real killer: the cross-court pass. The Warriors are not a great defensive team, as evidenced by a slashing back-cut from Patty Mills in the third quarter, but they excel at a very specific type of defense. Every Warrior player, especially Monta Ellis, lives for the pick six. The steal that leads to the fast break lay-up and/or dunk. It’s a beatable defense, smart passes and head fakes leading to back door cuts and easy lay-ups, but lazy cross-court passes are the bread and butter on which this type of defense thrives. Too many times Portland got in trouble trying to attack one side of the hoop, turned to pass across court, and then ended up chasing one Warrior or another the length of the floor.

Two of these cross court debacles sealed the game for Golden State. The first came on a Dorrell Wright steal of a Rudy Fernandez pass with the scored knotted at 97. The second came two minutes later when Ellis picked off Wesley’s cross court pass attempt. The Ellis steal iced it for the Warriors, and although it wasn’t a great example of how Wesley played, it was pretty emblematic of how Portland closed out their evening.

Give Golden State a lot of credit, in fact, give them all the credit. In my mind, they should have won a week ago in Portland. Golden State is not a great team. Monta Ellis and Steph Curry are great players, David Lee can help a good team be a great team if he could ever get on a good team, but for what it’s worth, these guys are probably going to be on the wrong side of the playoff picture. That being said, for just the right amount of minutes they were the best team on court Saturday night. Luckily for them, they picked just the perfect combination of minutes, and came out with the win.

The road is pretty dark now for Portland going forward towards the end of this calender year. A tough back-to-back at division rivals Utah and Denver, and we could be once again looking at an O-fer road trip. In the month of December, the Blazers have beat only the Phoenix Suns on the road, losing to Boston, Washington, San Antonio, Memphis, Dallas, and now Golden State. With the home wins, some of the overarching sense of dread has temporarily abated, but a 1-9 road record for December does not do anybody any favors come March and April.

Just a few quick thoughts, then go enjoy what’s left of your Christmases and related Holiday activites:

• Monta Ellis can play. He may not make the All-Star team this year, he may never get on a good team, but he can fill it up. Ellis finished with 39 points, including all of the Warriors’ final seven. Each bucket he hit in the last minute probably felt great considering how his last meeting with the Blazers went.
• Along with the bad turnovers, it was bad defense that killed the Blazers. Too many times Portland left shooters open both from deep and inside. David Lee is a face-up shooter. Late in the game he was left open from spots where he’s just totally automatic. That can’t happen if you want to win.
• A game changing moment that might stick with me for a little while came in the fourth. A well executed pick and roll left LaMarcus unguarded at the rim. Rudy Fernandez lobbed the ball up for LA, who cocked back to throw down a huge dunk. Instead of completing the huge dunk, and bringing Golden State maybe two possessions from giving up, he got rimmed checked. LA laughed heading back down the court, but there was enough time left on the clock that those two points mattered. Golden State can win games by sticking around. You’ve got a better chance of beating them with six minutes to go than you do with two. If LA sticks that dunk, Portland steps up the D for a few minutes, and this could have gone the other way.

Box Score

Standings

Twitter: @mikeacker | @ripcityproject