February 10, 2013; Orlando FL, USA; Portland Trail Blazers point guard Damian Lillard (0) and small forward Nicolas Batum (88) high five against the Orlando Magic during the second half at Amway Center. Orlando Magic defeated the Portland Trail Blazers 110-104. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Not going to lie, sometimes it’s tough to be a Blazer fan. Sunday was one of those times. Not only did we all have to watch as Gustavo Ayon torched Portland from inside and J.J. Redick torched Portland from the outside, we had to put up with tweets like this:

#Blazers PG Damian Lillard, the leading candidate for the Rookie of the year, is 1 of 10 and has missed all 4 of his 3-point tries.

— John Denton (@JohnDenton555) February 11, 2013

And tweets like this:

Damian Lillard’s 1/16 FGs the worst by a Magic opponent in team history (min. 15 FGAs)

— Evan Dunlap (@BQRMagic) February 11, 2013

And tweets like this:

How do the Blazers lose to Orlando? Allow 50.5 percent shooting and Damian Lillard shoots 1-for-16 from the field

— Jason Quick (@jwquick) February 11, 2013

And tweets like this:

Damian Lillard 1/16 FG 0/8 from the ark. HAHAHA

— Jance Go (@janceloser) February 11, 2013

We’ve been incredibly lucky this season in that we’ve gotten to see a historical rookie season from Damian Lillard. He’s been nothing short of amazing, and on some nights he has been plain old amazing.

But because of that, we might have also forgotten that Sunday was only his 51st game as a professional. That it was the first time he’d every played in Orlando (not that that means anything really beyond everything being new to him). And that even when he plays poorly, he’s still the only guy on Portland’s roster who should be running the point, and that without him the Blazers wouldn’t be anywhere near 25 wins.

Lillard is a rookie. Every rookie has a game, or two or three or 10, when he looks like a rookie. Dame has had his down moments, but he very easily had his worst shooting game of the season Sunday night. That it came against a team Portland probably should have beaten in one of the only games on this road trip that you probably could have penciled in as a W before they left town, well that’s just bad luck.

With each passing day, it’s looking more and more like the Blazers will not be making the Playoffs. If Portland’s goal for 2012-13 was to stay relevant and connected (so as not to fall too deep into the sink hole at the bottom of the NBA ladder), then by almost all accounts they have succeeded. And they’ve succeeded due in no small part to Damian Lillard.

In fact, if the goal was to take the whole thing down and rebuild basically from scratch, the move by Neil Olshey would likely be to ship both LaMarcus Aldridge and Wesley Matthews and build around Damian Lillard, Meyers Leonard, Nicolas Batum, and whatever other pieces you get through one, two, or even three more shots at the Draft Lottery. The play of Damian Lillard, the proof that he won’t need two seasons to be an effective starting point guard, might have significantly altered the long-term development of this team. In short, through 51 games, Lillard might have bought Blazer fans five to seven more years of LaMarcus Aldridge.

So that’s what we need to think about when looking at Sunday’s box score. Losing to the Magic doesn’t mean the season is over. It’s not a great thing, made doubly not great considering Portland’s next game is in Miami against a Heat team with a taste for revenge, but there’s a good chance that in 365 days the Blazers will be a significantly better team. A team that won’t be the designated slump breaker for teams that have lost a dozen times straight. We all have that to look forward to.

Are there any positive takeaways from Sunday, other than knowing that Damian Lillard probably won’t miss 15 field goal attempts against the Heat on Tuesday? Sure there are.

First, Nicolas Batum is starting to look healthy again. Nic hit six of his 12 field goal attempts and four of his threes. He still looks a little shaky, but his confidence is coming back. Batum, more than a lot of guys out there, ebbs and flows as his confidence rises and falls. He’s been pretty confident in his game all season. The wrist injury shook him a bit, but probably not even to derail him completely. For his trouble, Nicolas also collected eight rebounds and six assists.

Second positive, LaMarcus Aldridge continues to play like an All-Star. His game was a little off tonight, maybe because of a stomach bug maybe because Nikola Vucevic is on that list of European centers named Nikola who are a load in the paint, but his jumper was falling. LA’s 25 points are leading by example at its absolute best. If he continues to play hard and put up big numbers as the limitations of his team continues to lead to losses, there’s a pretty good chance that core members of this group don’t get too disillusioned with re-building.

Third positive, Joel Freeland and Victor Claver gave Portland some very strong minutes. Claver and Freeland are pretty big question marks for this team. Because of the way bringing guys over from Europe works, the new Spaniard and the Brit are guaranteed through 2013-14 with team options for two seasons after that (according to storytellerscontracts.com). Portland’s at least committed to them for the short-term (unless the Blazers put them into a trade). If the timeline of the rebuild is sped up a bit, these two guys will either have to contribute now or risk getting lost on the depth chart when Olshey goes out and gets a free agent or two (either that or get traded). Claver has proven to be effective, if a little scatter-shot, on offense, and possibly a capable fourth or fifth, spot-minute forward. Freeland, has been lost in the shuffle. He’s played in only 29 of Portland’s first 51 games. He hasn’t played more than 10 minutes since January. Sunday he didn’t get to 10 minutes, but in 9:39 he collected six points on 3-of-4 from the field, and was a team-high +11. If Freeland and Claver figure out a way to contribute like they did Sunday night on a regular basis, they could go a long way to shoring up Portland’s bench.

And one more positive. Damian Lillard finished his worst night as a professional with 12 assists. And then tweeted this:

Bad shooting night…and I aimt discouraged #seasonGOESon goodnight

— Damian Lillard (@Dame_Lillard) February 11, 2013

Portland travels to Miami on Tuesday.

One quick thing:

• We should be paying close attention to what is happening with Meyers Leonard. Sunday he had a good stretch on offense, and gave it almost all back with his poor defense. He played 8:17 on Sunday, scored four points, and had only a single rebound compared to two personal fouls. Pay attention to this. Certainly if Portland continues to lose and is mathematically eliminated sooner rather than later, Meyers will see his minutes go up, and that might improve his numbers and speed up his development. However, if the Blazers are in a tight Playoff race into March, it will be more eight minute nights for Leonard. Meyers is a Lottery pick, he needs to be better. At this point he’s a forgotten man, and for a good reason. Let’s hope he’s the type of player who can develop in practice and at a big man camp in the off-season.

Box Score

Standings

@mikeacker | @ripcityproject | mike.acker1@gmail.com

February 10, 2013; Orlando FL, USA; Portland Trail Blazers head coach Terry Stotts reacts against the Orlando Magic during the second half at Amway Center. Orlando Magic defeated the Portland Trail Blazers 110-104. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Jan. 07, 2013; Portland, OR, USA; Portland Trail Blazers power forward LaMarcus Aldridge (12) shoots the ball over Orlando Magic power forward Josh McRoberts (17) during the fourth quarter of the game at the Rose Garden. The Blazers won the game in overtime 125-119. Mandatory Credit: Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports

As we’re gearing up for what might be the most important game of Portland’s current six-game road trip (I know I said that about basically every game on this trip so far, but I stand behind it every time because this is a really, really important trip), let’s take a minute or two to talk about conventional wisdom.

Conventional wisdom says that it’s never better to see a struggling team than in the middle of a rough stretch of games. Call it a get-right game. Call it chicken soup. Call it whatever you like. If you’re a .500 or better team, hoping to slip into the post-season, and you’ve dropped two in a row, you’ve got to feel pretty good about stepping into the a gym against a team with only 14 wins to their credit.

Conventional wisdom says, also, that losing 13 times in a row in the NBA is a tough feat. Not as tough as winning 13 times in a row, but still, it’s a notable, if ignominious, accomplishment. If I’m setting the odds for Sunday’s game between the Orland Magic and the Portland Trail Blazers, I’m probably giving the benefit of the doubt to the team with the better record, but I’m working into my formula some minor derivation to account for the fact that a regression game, at this point, for the Magic means a win.

There’s a third, much more specific, element of conventional wisdom. In 2012-13, Portland plays very well against good teams and not so well against bad teams. Already this season the Blazers have lost to the Wizards after that team dropped 12 straight games, so there is an established precedent here.

We could take the conventional wisdom that advises a flattering Blazer team should be able to make quick work of a Magic team that’s circling the drain. Or we could take the conventional wisdom that advises a group of highly paid professionals who are arguably some of the best basketball players in the world will not let themselves get beat for the 13th straight time. Or we could go with the conventional wisdom that Portland in 2012-13 has not brought their A game against bad opponents and could very realistically get caught flat-footed by the Orlando Magic.

Two of those three scenarios favor the Magic. As Sunday is more or less a must-win game, let’s hope that the Blazers don’t put too much stock in conventional wisdom.

Blazers Starting 5: PG Damian Lillard, SG Wesley Matthews, SF Nicolas Batum, PF LaMarcus Aldridge, C J.J. Hickson

Magic Starting 5: PG Jameer Nelson, SG Arron Afflalo, SF Maurice Harkless, PF Andrew Nicholson, C Nikola Vucevic

When the Blazers played the Magic in Portland back in January, winning in overtime, the home team rang up an impressive 125 points. On that night, three members of the Orlando Magic scored at least 2o points. Those three guys were Arron Afflalo (24 points), J.J. Redick (29 points off the bench), and Jameer Nelson (21 points). J.J. Reddick is most likely out on Sunday nursing a sore shoulder (and trying not to lower his trade value too much), but Jameer Nelso and Arron Afflalo will certainly be the offensive engine that will drive the Magic Sunday.

Nelson and Afflalo or both skilled shooters and crafty veterans, but they won’t be able to beat Portland all by themselves. The guy to watch (or the guys to watch) will be Orlando’s big guys. Nikola Vucevic scored a respectable 17 points (to go with 13 rebounds) in the Rose Garden. More than that, though, he put up a serious fight against LaMarcus Aldridge. Andrew Nicholson is an athletic big. He played only 17 minutes in Portland, scoring eight points and grabbing six rebounds in that time, but he’s seen his playing time and scoring go way up in the last few weeks. There’s big-game potential for Nicholson, especially if he’s been guarded by J.J. Hickson and no LaMarcus Aldridge.

What to Watch For

• Can Portland take advantage of J.J. Redick being out. J.J. Redick’s status has yet to be called, but he sat out Orlando’s last game. If he’s out again on Sunday, the Magic will be without arguably their most potent offensive weapon. In January, J.J. was absolutely unconscious, knocking down six threes, and almost getting a win for the Magic by himself. His scoring will be missed, and if the Blazers can take advantage of Orlando being short-staffed, they’ll have a good chance of coming out victorious.
• Is Nicolas Batum recovered/out of his slump. Batum has been struggling as of late. His wrist injury is certainly partially to blame. That being said, a hot shooting second half in Houston may have roused Nic from his doldrums. If Batum gets hot Sunday, he could lead his team to a big win.
• Will the Blazers get off to a hot start. If Portland wants to win on Sunday, they have to have a big first quarter. Coming from behind on the road is tough, especially if Orlando holds a late lead and sees an end to their losing streak on the horizon.

@mikeacker | @ripcityproject | mike.acker1@gmail.com

Jan. 07, 2013; Portland, OR, USA; Portland Trail Blazers shooting guard Wesley Matthews (2) salutes the crowd after hitting a three point shot during the fourth quarter of the game against the Orlando Magic at the Rose Garden. Matthews scored 24 points as the Blazers won the game in overtime 125-119. Mandatory Credit: Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports

Anybody can win a five-minute game — Terry Stotts

The above is the sentiment of the Blazers’ head coach when he asked why his team, after going on the very latest of late runs to beat the hot-shooting Orlando Magic 125-119 on Monday to improve to a pretty astonishing four games above .500, is so good at winning in overtime.

Maybe, since Portland is now a seriously astonishing 5-0 in games that go longer than 48 minutes, he should have said HIS team can win a five-minute game, since at this point nobody the Blazers have played in overtime have been able to pull it off.

Wesley Matthews says this team is built for overtime. Nicolas Batum thinks Portland wins in extra periods because his team is able to stay focused and stay together. Damian Lillard has shown he’s the kind of player who can struggle through most of a game and then show up when his team needs him the most. And probably most importantly, the Blazers’ major weakness (no bench) has absolutely no bearing on how Portland finishes close games.

The knock on this Portland team, even after winning a few big games, is that they have a negative scoring differential. For the layman, that means they give up more points than they score on aggregate. I don’t disagree with this being fact. What I disagree with is how important scoring differential will be to the remainder of 2012-13. Clearly, the Blazers outscore their opponents when they win, so even if their aggregate scoring differential was negative on this last road trip (a 20+ point loss against three close victories), they still came out with three wins, basically rendering the whole scoring differential moot.

Take the 1991 World Series as an example of the meaninglessness of scoring differential. Chosen by ESPN as the best World Series ever played, in this series the Atlanta Braves outscored the Minnesota Twins 31 to 24 over the course of seven games. But if somebody asked you who won the “Greatest World Series of All Time,” and you said the Atlanta Braves, you would lose any shred of sports knowledge credibility you might have once had. The scoring disparity in this World Series came from one single game, a game in which Atlanta outscored Minnesota 14-5.

If Portland continues to win close games while losing blowouts (especially if it comes at the pace of four close wins to one blowout loss) there’s no reason to think this team can’t make the Playoffs.

But the question still remains, why and how do the Blazers keep winning tight games? In my mind, if comes down to execution and luck. Two parts execution to one part luck. Monday, Portland executed on the defensive and offensive end in the game’s extra period. They got extra possessions through turnovers that became uncontested dunks, and before those uncontested dunks really turned the tide, they got the kind of looks they could convert. Portland’s first three scores in OT came on free throws by Wesley Matthews, an and-one lay-up and free throw from LaMarcus Aldridge, and a pull-up 21-footer from Damian Lillard. That’s execution.

The luck in overtime came from a nice bounce on a Lillard floater in the lane and three misses from three by J.J. Redick, who earlier in the evening couldn’t have missed the basket if somebody had paid him to.

That Portland executed so well in the extra five minutes of play Monday, may have some Blazer fans scratching their heads about how they finished the final two possessions of regulation. In one defensive possession and one offensive possession, Portland played like a team that didn’t care at all about winning their only winnable game for about the next week and a half. First with his team up three, Damian Lillard went under a high pick while trying to cover Jameer Nelson. Nelson is a dead-eye and he did what dead-eye shooters do when their man goes under a screen, he drilled a three.

On the next possession, Portland went flat with Dame going one-on-one with Nelson. Damian got a good look at a long three, but it was short, and the game went into overtime.

The Blazers’ final offensive possession sparked a mini debate on the second auxiliary press row on how exactly it should have been handled. My feelings were that time and score were probably not conducive to anything other than what Portland ran. If there were fewer ticks on the clock remaining, the Blazers could have run a play like they ran to get Nicolas Batum a quick trigger three against Cleveland or a one-bounce, high screen three like Dame had against the Hornets. The problem with having almost nine seconds on the clock and running a play for a quick shot is that make or miss, there is going to be enough time on the clock for at least one more possession. Terry Stotts said he wanted to make sure Portland had the last look, that means burning all that remains of the game clock.

The other good option on the Blazers’ last offensive possession would be a drive and dish to Nicolas Batum or LaMarcus Aldridge. Again, this set is problematic because the last thing Portland wants to do is turn the ball over. By keeping the ball in one players hands, the probability of a turnover is greatly limited.

Sure you’d rather see Damian attack the rim than settle for a step-back three, especially considering he was O-fer on the night from deep, but knowing that the worst case scenario is overtime, it makes sense to play it safe.

And considering how Portland’s played in overtime, while it makes settling for a less than perfect shot and OT not feel like settling at all.

That’s why next time Terry Stotts is asked how his team continues to win in overtime, he should respond by saying, “the 2012-13 Blazers are built to win five-minute games.”

The Blazers have two days off before they face the Heat on Thursday at the Rose Garden.

Couple quick things:

• Four of Portland’s five starters collected double-doubles Monday: J.J. Hickson (20 points, 15 rebounds), LaMarcus Aldridge (27 points, 10 rebounds), Damian Lillard (18 points, 10 assists), and Nicolas Batum (16 points, 10 assists). Wesley Matthews was the outlier, but his line wasn’t so bad: 24 points (7-of-11 from the field and 4-of-7 from three), four assists, and three rebounds.
• Ronnie Price led the Blazers’ second unit in scoring with eight. Every Blazer reserve scored (even if only one played more than 14 minutes), but Portland’s bench was still trounced 43-to-20. Almost all of Orlando’s bench scoring was done by J.J. Redick who had 29. Redick shot 11-of-17 from the field and 6-of-10 from deep. Redick and former Blazer Josh McRoberts both played more than 30 minutes off the bench. McBob logged a full 39 minutes. Imagine Portland with Orlando’s bench, and Orlando’s bench isn’t even that good.
• Standings Watch:Portland wins, the teams directly above and below them in the standings are idle. The Blazers currently sit at seventh in the West, .003 points ahead of Denver, and a full game behind Houston. If the post season began tomorrow, Portland would face the defending Western Conference Champion Oklahoma City Thunder. The Blazers host OKC this coming Sunday.

Box Score

Standings

@mikeacker | @ripcityproject | mike.acker1@gmail.com

Jan. 07, 2013; Portland, OR, USA; Portland Trail Blazers point guard Damian Lillard (0) and Portland Trail Blazers shooting guard Wesley Matthews (2) celebrate during overtime of the game against the Orlando Magic at the Rose Garden. Matthews scored 24 points and Lillard scored 18 points as the Blazers won the game in overtime 125-119. Mandatory Credit: Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports