Feb 22, 2013; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Portland Trail Blazers shooting guard Will Barton (5) drives against Los Angeles Lakers small forward Metta World Peace (15) during the game at the Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

Seriously, you all should know how much I “clamored” for the #Blazer 5 Rookie Lineup but to quote Switch in The Matrix: “Not like this.”

— Candace Buckner (@blazerbanter) April 10, 2013

If you’re the kind of Blazer fan I am, about a month and a half ago, when it seemed like Portland might pull of the impossible and be in contention down the stretch, you probably looked at this third to last home game in April as being one of the biggest games of the season.

Blazers vs. Lakers in Portland. Always a showstopper; always must-see basketball. A contending Portland team against a flailing LA team needing every single win they can muster to have a shot at the post season.

Part of that narrative maintains. The Lakers are fighting for the last playoff spot on the Western Conference ladder, they need wins in the worst way as they try to hold of the Utah Jazz and avoid being one of the biggest flops in recent NBA memories.

Sadly, the home section of the story has changed. Portland’s second half schedule, as expected, was certainly too tough for the upstart Blazers to keep winning. They’ve faded down the stretch, and if things hold, they’ll end 2012-13 without getting a win in more than a month.

There’s no doubt that Wednesday’s game will be played in front of a vocal crowd, there’s no doubt that there will be some drama, and there’s not doubt that it will be fun to watch. But there’s just not as much riding on this game as we once hoped there would be. Sure, Portland can play spoiler, but with nearly half of the roster scratched or listed as probable or worse, and the rest of the roster consisting of rookies (both battle tested and green) and garbage-timers, hoping for a positive outcome from the Blazers is a classic example of setting yourself up for disappointment.

So after all of that, what is to be made of Wednesday night. Might I suggest you hop over to Portland Roundball Society and check out the estimable Danny Nowell’s treatise on what spring ball is all about (couched in praise for Will Barton’s coming of age moment against the Dallas Mavericks last weekend). If Sunday was a lesson in what can happen when the right player is given the right amount of playing time in the right game situation, Wednesday can be a lesson in young players rising to the occasion and taking advantage of to opportunities they have been given.

Blazers Starting 5: PG Damian Lillard, SG Will Barton, SF Victor Claver, PF Joel Freeland, C Meyers Leonard

Lakers Starting 5: PG Steve Blake, SG Kobe Bryant, SF Earl Clark, PF Pau Gasol, C Meyers Leonard

Basically any way you spin it, the match-ups for Wednesday night favor the Los Angeles Lakers. Even if the five-rookie starting lineup is a unrealized dream of a select few, Portland WILL be without Nicolas Batum and Wesley Matthews, two of the teams more able one-on-one defenders. Because of those rather important roster omissions, somebody will be tasked with trying to contain (or maybe even stop) Kobe Bryant.

Will Barton has the potential makings of a strong perimeter defender (long arms, good anticipation and reaction time, high basketball IQ), but as things stand at the moment, Kobe will have no trouble against Portland’s newest rookie of the moment. Bryant doesn’t have the step he once did, but he has the range to keep Barton up in his body, the quickness and craftiness to take Barton off the dribble, and the relative mass and strength to protect the ball inside and with his back to the basket.

If Will starts, and draws Kobe as his defensive assignment, he’ll have two things to try to accomplish. First, he needs to play within his abilities, meaning he can’t let the moment get the better of him and try to better Kobe one-on-one from a defensive stand-point. He needs to do things like shade Kobe to help-side defenders, find Kobe when shots go up to limit Bryant’s offensive rebounds and second-chance points, and stay at home on Kobe’s myriad of pump-fakes, head bobs, and various other tricks he employs to great effect to get defenders off their feet and in dangerous situations.

This last thing dovetails nicely with what will be Barton’s secondary prime directive: don’t foul. Staying out of foul trouble is doubly important for Will. He needs to stay on the floor because he’s one of Portland’s deeper rotation players who can score, and not fouling limits the number of points Kobe will get for free. Bryant is going to score (a lot), that absolutely can not be avoided. What can be avoided is letting Kobe pad his scoring numbers with trip after trip to the charity stripe. Thirty to thirty-five points from Bryant doesn’t kill you. Thirty to thirty-five points from the field and another 15+ from the free throw line does.

Moving on from Kobe, LA’s biggest advantage will be in the post. If/when the Lakers clinch a playoff spot, much of the media focus will be on who they play and how well they can be expected to fair in the first round. Their opponent will be either the Spurs of San Antonio or the Thunder from Oklahoma City. Bet that someone will pick LA to win their series, and bet that that person’s justification for that Laker win will be two-fold. One) Kobe plus a couple other future Hall of Famers who can and will turn it up in the post season. and Two) the Lakers still have arguably one of the best front court tandems in the league.

If you want to see what the Laker bigs can do and how they can do it, Wednesday’s is the game to watch. If LaMarcus Aldridge sits (which I think he will), Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard will make short work of Joel Freeland and Meyers Leonard. Nothing against Portland’s two rookie bigs, I believe both guys have the potential to be contributors at the NBA level, the Lakers are going to go inside a lot, and they are going to find very little in the way of one-on-one resistance.

What to Watch For

• Will Portland be able to capitalize on the advantages they will have. The Blazers are significantly younger than the Lakers and they have very little on the line. LA needs this win, and they know it. There’s a chance that the pressure gets in the collective Laker heads and causes them to play tight. The Lakers have Golden State, San Antonio, and Houston after Portland to finish the season. The Spurs are locked in a heated race with the Thunder for the number one seed and a date with the Lakers in the first round. As much as Gregg Popovich doesn’t care about the regular season, my guess is San Antonio tries a little bit in their last few games. Houston and Golden State are into the post season but fighting each other for sixth and seventh place, those teams are both going to try and finish the season strong. The Lakers’ last easy game is Wednesday. Hopefully that means they’ll fall flat on their face. Along with having nothing to play for and thus nothing to lose, Portland has an advantage at the point guard position. Damian Lillard should be able to eat Steve Blake alive on both ends. If Lillard can have a huge game, his team might be able to follow.
• Can the Blazers stay close and stay engaged. Portland let Sunday’s game against the Mavericks get away from them early. They came back and made it interesting, but never really threatened. If Portland can avoid getting down by big margins, they’ll give themselves a chance.
• Who shows up and who do they root for. The Blazers have drawn remarkably well in the last month and change considering the season has been over for awhile. LA draws well in Portland, I’m sure they draw well everywhere, and with the Blazers starting all rookies and not winning, I wouldn’t be surprised if there are more Laker fans in the Rose Garden than Blazer fans. It will be interesting to see how the team responds/reacts to playing in front of a less favorable crowd, especially if it gets ugly.

@mikeacker | @ripcityproject | mike.acker1@gmail.com

Feb 22, 2013; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Lakers shooting guard Kobe Bryant (24) drives against Portland Trail Blazers point guard Damian Lillard (0) during the game at the Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

I waited over 12 hours to write about Portland’s loss on Friday to the LA Lakers primarily because I wanted to give myself some time to calm down and think about what I wanted to say before I committed it to the Internet.

Now that some time has passed, I can safely say that I’m not as upset about the outcome of this game on Saturday afternoon as I was on Friday evening. However, I can also safely say that I’m no less disappointed about it.

I’m disappointed in the Blazers for once again playing the kind of game that would have easily beaten the Suns, the Hornets, or the Magic in a game that featured none of those teams. I’m disappointed that two usually calm guys, LaMarcus Aldridge and Wesley Matthews, lost their collective cools at inopportune times that led to costly technical fouls. I’m disappointed that a few sloppy offensive possessions and a few defensive lapses cost Portland what would have been a really impressive win.

But mostly I’m disappointed that the Blazers put themselves in a situation where they allowed sloppy (I’m not going to call it criminal but you know I’d like to) refereeing be the difference maker.

I don’t like to get caught up in blaming referees for loses, and I know that you end up sounding like a homeless dude wearing a tin foil hat when you start screaming about games being fixed or the system being rigged, but god damn, Friday night felt a lot like Portland got jobbed. I’m going to leave it at that, since in reality there’s no point in getting too caught up in what happened, how it happened, or why or why not the NBA absolutely needs the Los Angeles Lakers in the post season.

Instead of going down that rabbit hole, I’ll focus this recap on what has been a bit of a startling trend for these Portland Trail Blazers. That trend: playing very well against good teams (very very well against really really good teams) and basically not showing up against bad teams.

Friday was a bit of an in-betweener. The Lakers aren’t a great team any way you spin it. They do, however, have one of the best players at his position ever (Steve Nash), one of the best players at any position ever (Kobe Bryant), and a guy who likes to think he’s one of the best players at his position ever and reasonably could be in the top 15 (Dwight Howard).

They’re a locker room mess, a media bonanza, a narrative to end all narratives, and sometimes, the Lakers can play good basketball. Laker fans hope that they’ll put together enough of those sometimes (and that the Utah Jazz will go on tilt) to get into the post season. Should that happen, all bets are off.

Friday they played well (everybody but Steve Nash that is), and Portland played well right beside them. I said in my preview that if the Blazers could keep it close, they would have a chance. They kept it close, and they gave themselves a chance. That’s fantastic.

My question is, why can’t they do that against the Phoenix Suns, or the Washington Wizards, or the Cleveland Cavaliers? Why can’t they do that against the Sacramento Kings, or the Orlando Magic? The Detroit Pistons or the Milwaukee Bucks? Portland has lost to so many sub .500 teams this season, that it almost means nothing that they beat the Miami Heat, and the San Antonio Spurs, and the Los Angeles Clippers, and the Memphis Grizzlies, and the Chicago Bulls and the Indiana Pacers (all teams that will get or are fighting for home court advantage in the Playoffs).

Yes I’m upset that an obvious three (that was ruled a three then called a two then confirmed as a two after EXTENSIVE replay) by Nicolas Batum was called a two, making Friday a two-point game and not a one-point game (a huge difference considering that a one-point game would give Portland a chance to tie with a three after two made Laker free throws). Yes I’m upset that the Blazers (specifically Portland’s rookies) were getting mugged at or around the hoop and weren’t getting calls and on the other end Kobe Bryant was getting breathed on wrong and going to the line. Yes I’m upset that the Blazers aren’t a team that gets the benefit or the doubt or that national audiences are screaming about every single second of every day.

But what I’m more upset about is that this Blazer team can’t seem to decide if they’re a lottery team or a Playoff team. Because you can’t be both. You can’t lose to the worst team in the league and beat the best team in the league (which Portland has done) and expect everything to just be OK.

We’re coming to the point in the season where winning and losing matter only because it will determine where the Blazers fall in next season’s draft. I want to see this team win because I’m a Blazer fan and it hurts me physically and emotionally when my team loses. But I also want this season to be a stepping stone, a build block for success, and every other rock/construction debris related cliche you can think of.

If Portland can finish the season with big wins against good teams, giving this young roster something to build off of and making this franchise attractive to big name free agents, I don’t care if they punt their draft pick. If the Blazers’ can’t get those big wins, then I’m OK with Meyers Leonard, Will Barton, Joel Freeland, and Victor Claver getting some serious minutes so the team can see which of those guys should stay and which should be packaged and traded.

What I’m not OK with is being somewhere in the middle. I know they didn’t beat the Lakers on Friday, so the winning big games part of my theory is moot, but still as frustrated as I am with what happened Friday night at the Staples Center, I’m much more frustrated with the fact that these Blazers can’t figure out a way to play like they did against the Lakers (or the Heat or the Spurs or the Knicks) against every team they play every night.

And that’s not something that can be blamed on the criminals guys in gray shirts calling fouls.

Portland is back in action against the Boston Celtics at the Rose Garden Sunday night. A win against Boston will go a long way to forget the Blazers’ most recent robbery set-back.

Two quick things:

• Damian Lillard reached 1,000 points on Friday. Dame is the first rookie since Arvydas Sabonis to score at least 1,000 points in a season. Lillard is also the first player in the NBA to record 1,000 points and 300 assists in their first 55 games since LeBron James. Damian had a pretty great night on Friday, even if he was only 1-of-5 from three. He certainly suffered from lack of calls, especially on a three-point attempt late in the game that ended with Dame getting absolutely cleaned out by Kobe Bryant and again on another three-point attempt with less than 10 seconds remaining in which Kobe smacked Damian on the top of the head. Ah well. At least as Blazer fans we can take solace in knowing that at some point in his career, Damian Lillard will get Kobe Bryant calls.
• Portland’s newest acquisition, Eric Maynor, is very likely to be in action Sunday night against the Celtics. If you’re not excited about Maynor coming to Portland, you should be. He’s not a game-changer, but he is going to be an upgrade of maybe 10 times over what this team has had at the back-up point guard spot. Should be fun to see what he can do.

Box Score

Standings

@mikeacker | @ripcityproject | mike.acker1@gmail.com

Feb 22, 2013; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Portland Trail Blazers point guard Damian Lillard (0) reacts after their loss to the Los Angeles Lakers at the Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

**CORRECTION**

It was brought to my attention that I inverted the scores in the headline to this post. It was an accident, and it has been corrected. It wasn’t, as some probably thought, a bitter Blazer fans attempt to say that should the calls have gone the right way, the Blazers would have been victorious by four over the Lakers and not the other way around. I would never say that.

Oct. 31, 2012; Portland, OR, USA; Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) drives between Los Angeles Lakers center Robert Sacre (50), guard Jodie Meeks (20) and Jordan Hill (27) in the second half at the Rose Garden. Mandatory Credit: Jaime Valdez-USA TODAY Sports

It’s not a question of if we make the playoffs. We will. And when we get there, I have no fear of anyone — Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Denver … whoever. I have zero nervousness about that. But I’m not talking about just me. Us as a group. We will make the playoffs. And we will compete. — Kobe Bryant

The above is the guarantee that Kobe Bryant gave Sports Illustrated writer Jack McCallum in an article published yesterday.  The degrees of difference between the plight of the Los Angeles Lakers and the rebuilding effort of the Portland Trail Blazers (two teams separated in the standings for first team excluded from the Playoffs by a measly half a game) has never been made more clear than by the words of Kobe Bean Bryant.

When the Blazers tip-off for their second and final appearance in the Staples Center in Los Angeles against the Lakers, they will be one or two bad stretches of a couple of games or more from an early off-season. In that very same game, the Lakers (a team with the same number of loses as the Blazers and just one more win) will be looking to get another win to build on their last big win (against the Celtics) to continue their stalking pursuit of the Houston Rockets and the eighth seed in the Western Conference Playoffs.

Portland is padding the landing, in a lot of ways, looking for positives in bad performances, preparing their fan base for what’s to come (a potent back court of Damian Lillard, Eric Maynor, and Wesley Matthews and no more minutes for Nolan Smith). The Lakers are making guarantees, being featured on more national television games than any other teams under .500, and are being hailed as the ever popular “team nobody wants to meet in the first round of the Playoffs,” regardless of the fact that ESPN’s Hollinger Playoff Odds give LA a 33% chance of evening making the Playoffs, roughly the same odds ESPN gives the 8th seeded Houston Rockets of NOT making the Playoffs.

To say that there is a significant difference between the Lakers and the Blazers at this point in their respective seasons or in the perceptions of their respective franchises is a pretty serious understatement. That they’ll both be outside of the Playoffs come the end of April probably won’t change that. These teams and these franchises will be on the same level the day Damian Lillard guarantees that his team will make the Playoffs when they are four games under .500 and 9th or lower in the Western Conference.

The chances that Damian Lillard makes that kind of guarantee are about as high as the chances that Kobe Bryant is able to make good on his guarantee, regardless of what happens at Staples Center Friday night.

Blazers Starting 5: PG Damian Lillard, SG Victor Claver, SF Nicolas Batum, PF LaMarcus Aldridge, C J.J. Hickson

Lakers Starting 5: PG Steve Nash, SG Kobe Bryant, SF Metta World Peace, PF Earl Clark, C Dwight Howard

All is not lost for the Blazers even if on paper this match-up certainly favors the Lakers. The primary reason for Portland fans to feel positive coming in to Friday’s game is that the Lakers still haven’t played in real life the way projections on paper suggested that they would play. LA might be coming together a little bit as the pressure continues to mount, but there are still serious issues in the Lakers’ game. Portland can’t expect that LA is going to beat themselves, not at home, not against a team they’re battling for position, but they aren’t the super team they’re supposed to be (which we all know) and they haven’t found a way to correct some of the mistakes they’ve made that have led them to being three games below .500.

For the Blazers to have a chance on Friday, and even potentially win, they have to be aware that their margin for error basically does not exist. In Portland’s last game, a disappointing and actually pretty embarrassing loss to the Phoenix Suns, the Blazers proved once again that they can fight back from big deficits. But they also proved that even against a team with a terrible record mistakes are costly.

If Portland wants to beat LA, they have to limit errors and mistakes. That means not turning over the ball, finishing at the rim, getting good shots, and controlling the defensive glass. It also means playing defense. The Lakers are going to try and get out early and make this an uphill battle for the Blazers from start to finish. Dwight Howard is going to have easy access to the bucket, and that’s where LA is going to be able to do their quickest and most efficient damage. Keeping DH from having a huge first quarter should be Portland’s first goal.

The Blazers’ second goal for Friday should be to take advantage of the opportunities that will be given to them. There are going to be chances for Portland. The Lakers are a combustible group. They have a tendency to check in and out of games depending on how everything is flowing. If the Blazers can find a way to put scoring runs together and get a little momentum on their side, they have a chance to expose the cracks in the Lakers’ armor. Getting the Lakers to crack is the best way to bet them.

What to Watch For

• Can the Blazers play a complete game. Portland has shown time and time again that they can make a comeback when they get down big. They’ve also showed that if they can avoid getting down big, they can win. If the Blazers can avoid long stretches of not scoring, and if they can keep the score close for 48 minutes, I wouldn’t be surprised if Portland comes away with a win.
• Will the Blazers be able to ignore the implications of what this game means to both teams. Across the board, Portland has maintained that the Playoffs are still a goal and still a possibility. Kobe is guaranteeing the Playoffs (as I’ve already made clear). The team that wins Friday will be that much closer to achieving their goal. That means a lot for LA. If the Lakers miss the Playoffs, it will be only the second time Kobe Bryant has been excluded from the post season in his career. It means a little bit less to the Blazers. They’re thinking much longer term than just this season or this stretch run. However, the importance placed on Friday’s game with regards to the Lakers and their post season comes with a lot of pressure. All of that pressure is on LA. If Portland can play free and loose, like Friday’s game doesn’t mean anything, they might be able to make the Lakers feel that mounting pressure and then hopefully crack under that pressure.
• Damian Lillard. Dame has had big games in New York against the Knicks and in Miami against the Heat. Having a big game in Staples against the Lakers could be just another step on the road to the Rookie of the Year. The difference between a big game against the Heat and a big game against the Lakers is that 33 points from Lillard at Staples might be enough for Portland to get a win.

@mikeacker | @ripcityproject | mike.acker1@gmail.com