January 2, 2013; Toronto, ON, Canada; Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) runs into Toronto Raptors forward-guard Alan Anderson (6) during the second half at the Air Canada Centre. Toronto defeated Portland 102-79. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

Blazer Twitter bros and gals are very likely familiar with the localized meme #bazers. I’m not totally sure the origin (I feel like it might harken back to a misspelled license plate owned by a superfan who may also be a poor proofreader, but to be sure you’d have to ask Sean Highkin or Seth Johnston the kings of the Blazer Twitter-sphere) but I do know what it means. It’s used to highlight and draw attention to the Blazers when they are performances are not up to snuff. It’s also used when somebody, usually a local scribe or television personality, drops a bit of Blazer related trivia that is meant to pump up the morale of the fan base but in fact illustrates how fruitless Portland’s professional basketball team can at times be.

Here is an example:

62 pts going into the 4th. It’s okay, I have vodka and enchiladas. #Bazers

— Sareena(@SareenaN) January 3, 2013

When the Blazers follow up an inspiring victory against the New York Knicks with an equally uninspiring loss the the Toronto Raptors, #bazers  is bound to make its presence known a time or two.

But seriously, raise your hand if you saw this one coming. Be honest. So only the most hardcore (read delusional) fans who believe that a very good victory turned this Blazer team into a legit competitor over night should not have their hands raised.

Portland lost to the Raptors on Wednesday at the Air Canada Centre on Tuesday night when they beat the Knicks at Madison Square Garden. A good team doesn’t let a big win get them all pie-eyed a forgetful about the next game. The Blazers have played well through 31 games in 2012-13, they’re is a ton of potential in this roster and in what this roster can become, but right now, they are the kind of young team who will take a close win in basketball’s most storied arena every time if it means getting blown out the next night.

Sure I would have preferred a close loss to the Knicks and a win against the Raptors, but that’s not what these Blazers gave us. We deal with it, and we move on.

But give Toronto a ton of credit here. DeMar DeRozan played like a guy who understands the need to earn the money he’s given. Ed Davis played like LaMarcus Aldridge. Terrance Ross played like he’d saved up every good game he’d ever had just so he could have the night of his life against the team he watched while starring for North Portland’s Jefferson high School. Amir Johnson played like he might make chucking your mouth guard at a referee a trend for players who want to greatly improve their game (he also played like a guy who, as a professional, has absolutely no idea what the rules of the game of basketball are).

On the Portland side, there were plenty of horrible numbers in the box score. Let’s start with 18 turnovers. The Blazers coughed up the ball so many times in the first quarter, leading to so many uncontested Toronto lay-ups, that Portland was in a 10-point hole before they even got on the board. Getting down by 10 on the road against a hot team isn’t ever a good idea. Add to it that the Blazers’ motivation was at all time lows considering the circumstances, and despite a couple runs to close the gap in the first and second quarters, this thing was over within the space of two and a half to three minutes.

Another bad stat for the visitors: 4-of-22 shooting from distance. Go back and look at Tuesday’s box score. At MSG, the Blazers shot 11-of-33 from deep. Keep going back. Last Saturday against the 76ers: 8-of-23 on threes. Boxing Day against the Kings: 6-0f-21. The numbers from distance against the Kings weren’t fantastic (29%), but they were still better than Wednesday’s (18%). The Blazers don’t need to shoot the lights out on threes to win games, but when they shoot poorly and don’t make many triples, they simply do not win.

One more bad number, if you can stand it: 41-of-77 shooting from the field by the Raptors. The Blazers’ defensive intensity meter was at about zero all night. Blame in on tired legs, blame it on a hot Toronto team that was committed to moving the ball (34 assists on 41 made baskets) and not turning it over (11 total turnovers), blame it on whatever you like. Portland didn’t play a lick of defense. and because of that, they got pasted.

The real question following Tuesday night’s mini-debacle is this: is one win more valuable than another? On the one hand, the answer is no. Every win has the same value as any other win. Same goes for any loss. On the other hand, though, beating the Knicks in their house where they’ve been basically unbeatable is far better for morale than beating the lowly Toronto Raptors.

Here’s a third option, though. Beating up on the Blazers for blowing a winnable game in Toronto makes about as much sense as heaping mountains of praise on Portland for toughing out a good win in Manhattan. If you hold to the theory that wins and losses are about the least important thing in 2013-12, which I do when it’s convenient, than this third answer to my question is the one to go with.

Let’s enjoy the win on New Year’s Day and bemoan the loss on the least celebrated day of the year, The Day We All Have To Go Back To Work Without Another Three Day Weekend Until Easter, and then hurry up and forget about them both. Sure some will say that even with losses to Memphis and Minnesota this road trip has already been an emotional success, but I’m not one of those people.  Yes the Bazers have to Baze, that’s why Twitter was invented, but not every night of the week.

Portland has Thursday off before they travel to The Bluff City (yeah I didn’t know that was a nickname for Memphis until just now either) to face the 20-9 Grizzlies on Friday.

Just a couple of quick things:

• Damian Lillard was awarded the Western Conference Rookie of the Month award for December, making it a clean sweep for the Blazer rookie point guard thus far. Dame is the second Blazer to win Rookie of the Month more than once. Brandon Roy was the other, taking the honors in January, February, and March of his first season. Since the NBA began handing out this award in 1981, only seven players have run the table from November to April (or in Ralph Sampson’s case from November to March). Those players are: the aforementioned Ralph Sampson 83-84, David Robinson 89-90, Tim Duncan 97-98, LeBron James 03-04, Carmelo Anthony 03-04, Chris Paul 05-06, and Blake Griffin 10-11. Of that crop, only Carmelo was not awarded the rookie of the year, and that’s because of LeBron (the NBA didn’t start awarding Rookie of the Month by conference until the 2001-02 season). Notable former Rookies of the Year who did not sweep the award from start to finish: Shaquille O’Neal (Alonzo Mourning won in March and April of 1993), Kevin Durant (Luis Scola won in February of 2008), Kyrie Irving (Ivan Johnson in April of last season), and Michael Jordan (MJ and Hakeem Olajuwon traded months in the 1984-85 season).
• Joel Freeland played on Wednesday. He finished with 11 points in 21 minutes. Count me as among the people who are firmly in the Freeland camp. One of the biggest downsides of how well things have been going for Portland is that guys like Freeland aren’t getting an extended look. They’re being expected to contribute or not play. I know that’s the trouble of being on a middling team with aspirations of staying relevant during a protracted rebuild. Hopefully Joel knows it too. His time will come, hopefully he’ll stay checked in so that when it does come he’ll be ready for it. I expect that he will. Coming to the NBA is a big step for foreign players, especially one who is arguably at the top of the European food chain. He doesn’t want to leave without proving he belongs.
• The Raptors had a very interesting box score. Only two of their starters scored, and they got a combined 22 assists from Jose Calderon and Kyle Lowry without either point guard accounting for a single made field goal.
• Portland managed to hit a couple three pointers on Wednesday, but if you’re keeping track at home, they are now 4-of-42 against Toronto from downtown on the season. An astounding 9.5%.
• Damian Lillard finished Wednesday with 18 points (shooting 6-of-13 from the field and 1-of-5 from three), seven assists, and five turnovers. He’s going to have a triple double this season, the question is will he have it before or after the All-Star Break. Dame also had seven turnovers. He was partially responsible for the loose passing that got Portland in trouble in the first quarter. To the Raptors’ credit, though, they were getting in all the passing lanes.

Box Score

Standings

@mikeacker | @ripcityproject | mike.acker1@gmail.com

January 2, 2013; Toronto, ON, Canada; Toronto Raptors guard DeMar DeRozan (10) goes up for a shot as Portland Trail Blazers forward LaMarcus Aldridge (12) and forward Joel Freeland (19) defend during the first half at the Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

Damian Lillard continues to provide solid leadership from the point guard position, even on a night like Monday’s when he shot 2-of-14 from the field and missed all five of his three point attempts. Photo courtesy of USPRESSWIRE

Well…

It seems very unlikely that Blazer fans will ever see another game quite like the “game” that was played Monday night in the Rose Garden. On any other night, the team that takes and misses 20 three-point field goals and shoots a hair over 40% from the field is probably the team that loses. Monday, Portland played like one of the worst teams in the NBA. Luckily the only other team that played worse than the Blazers happened to be sharing their court.

The Toronto Raptors are the kind of team Portland fans should hope the Blazers do not become. Toronto’s star, if you can call him that, is in the process of being run out of town. Their big off season acquisition hasn’t quite lived up to the hype, or at least he hasn’t been able to stay healthy. A couple of their young guys have been inconsistent. They’ve lost more than four games for each one that they’ve won. Things are not good.

Monday, things were not good for the Raptors on a pretty epic scale. Andrea Bargnani and Kyle Lowry, the aforementioned star and acquisition respectively, played a combined 25 minutes and scored a total of three points. Mickael Pietrus, a one-time sure shooting sniper, went an abysmal 3-of-13 from the field and 1-of-7 from three. DeMar Derozan scored 20 points, but he took 16 shots to get there. Aaron Gray had to play almost nine minutes.

Also, Amir Johnson did this:

To say this was a bad game for the Raptors, is probably a bit of an understatement.

Things were far from great on Portland’s end. Damian Lillard went 2-of-14 from the field, Victor Claver (getting his first career start and seeing his longest extended run since pre-season) hit on only two of his 12 field goal attempts, Sasha Pavlovic shot 5-of-12, Nolan Smith shot 4-of-10, Luke Babbitt shot 2-of-9, and as a team the Blazers shot a historically bad 0-of-20 from three.

The difference for Portland came from LaMarcus Aldridge shooting 11-of-19 from the field for 30 points, and J.J. Hickson shooting 7-of-7 from the field for 16 points. Most nights, two guys playing decent basketball isn’t enough. Monday it was.

In my game preview, I predicted that it would be LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard who would be tasked to win Monday’s game all by themselves. I was half right. Although I’m a fan of J.J. Hicksons’ playing, and his 16 points certainly helped the Blazers achieve a much needed win, I’d like to spend some time talking about the half of my prediction that I got wrong.

Lillard regression game happening.

— Clint Peterson (@Clintonite33) December 11, 2012

The above Tweet dropped at some point in the middle of Monday’s game. At the time I chose not to respond because I didn’t really disagree, and I didn’t want to be exposed for the homer that I am. Yes Damian had a rough night Monday, and yes it’s very likely that some of his hot start will be neutralized by bumps in the road that every rookie experiences. But to call it a regression game is a bit harsh.

Without Wesley Matthews or Nicolas Batum in the offense, Damian was called on to do a lot more to keep the Blazers on the score board. Also, with outside shooters not on the floor, Toronto’s bigs were free to collapse to the rim on every drive. Those factors helped to explain Damian’s shooting struggles from the field. His three-point shooting struggles can’t be explained away by lack of personnel, but I will say that often shooting woes can be contagious. So that’s how I rationalize an otherwise uninspiring offensive performance from Damian Lillard.

But the real reason Monday’s was not a regression game for Portland’s big-time rookie was because he does so much more than just score points, and on Monday while he was having a rough night putting the ball in the basket, the rest of his game didn’t slip.

“Just because I’m not making shots doesn’t mean I put my head down and just clock out of the game,” Damian told me after the game. “There’s still plays to be made, I still need to defend. I still need to be there supporting my teammates. If I’m not making shots that means somebody else is.”

It’s this mentality, that he can and is the leader of this team, that separates Lillard from other rookies. And it’s his ability to stick to that mentality even when he’s having an off night that keeps him moving forward even after a game like Monday, a game that will certainly hurt his shooting percentage numbers.

One thing that is truly amazing about Lillard, is that he is still very clearly learning how to maximize the effectiveness and efficiency of his game. Damian’s pull-up game is very strong. His deep ball can be deadly (not when it doesn’t go down of course). Finishing at the rim, especially in traffic, isn’t his strongest attribute, but he believes in himself and he’s willing to throw his body into the lane. The key for Dame going forward is going to be figuring out which weapons in his arsenal to deploy at what time.

Monday was not a strong example of good decision making, but he’s still working on it.

“It’s all a read for me,” Damian said when I asked him about his process of deciding when and how to attack on offense. “Depending on how they play the ball screens it’s all a read for me. In my head everything’s pretty simple, it’s just a matter of making the shots or making the right pass. I just didn’t make the shots tonight.”

It won’t be like that every night. At some point those shots will go in. At some point his defensive reads will be more proactive than reactive. And at some point, he’ll make the right call between pulling up in the lane for the jumper, or diving to the rim for the lay-up, or passing off to an open shooter in the corner. The purpose of a night like Monday is for Damian to learn and improve at game speed. That’s what he does and will continue to do.

I’ll get on board for a regression game from Lillard when he has a game that doesn’t include three assists and no turnovers in a decisive fourth quarter after having gone three quarters with only three assists and two turnovers. I’ll get on board for a regression game when Damian plays 35 and a half minutes, every offensive possession with the ball in his hands, and turns the ball over more than twice.

Games like that are coming. They have to, he is a rookie after all. But Monday wasn’t one of them.

I’d be remiss if I failed to mention the unquestioned highlight of the evening. With 5:42 remaining in the game’s final quarter, one Luke Babbitt caught the ball on the wing, pumped-faked Mikael Pietrus into next week, and then drove hard to hoop to dunk on Ed Davis with two hands.

I’ll leave you with the video evidence.

The Blazers face a much more formidable opponent in the San Antonio Spurs Thursday at the Rose Garden.

Box Score

Standings

Raptors Rupture

@mikeacker | @ripcityproject | mike.acker1@gmail.com

LaMarcus Aldridge led all scorers with 30 points, helping the Blazers overcome the Raptors on Monday night. Photo courtesy of USPRESSWIRE

Andrea Bargnani and the Toronto Raptors have lost four straight and 17 overall coming into Portland on Monday. Photo courtesy of USPRESSWIRE.

I’d like to spend a minute talking about the idea of a “must-win” game. I’m of the opinion that there are very few single games that an NBA team literally must win. Although each game matters and is important in its own way, the season is long enough that very infrequently is a team’s post season fate determined by the outcome of one single game.

The only games that are “must win” are elimination games in the Playoffs. So why then do teams, players, and media members like to talk so much about “must win” games? Well, first it makes for interesting copy, bulletin board material, and motivational speeches. But more than that, it is very true that some games are more important than others. Saying a game is a “must win,” instead of calling a game a “pretty important to win for the betterment of the near future” is sexier, even if it’s less factually accurate.

For some teams, let’s call them competitors, the “must win” games are those against the other elite teams in the league. These are the marquee match-ups. The regular season prelude to very important, literally “must win” games, that will come in the post season.

For teams like the Blazers, let’s call them up and comers, the “must win” games are a little harder to define. Games against elite squads are important. Getting a win against a good team can make a bad week, a bad month, or a bad season a little more bearable. Also, not getting blown to bits by the best guys in the NBA is a good way to keep young egos (or old egos for that matter) from falling to pieces. But putting too much emphasis on beating the best teams in the league is an easy way to set a young team up for failure. It’s not going to happen that often, or ever.

So does that mean that games against bad teams are “must win” games for the Blazers? As I said, the answer isn’t quite so clear. Beating bad teams is important, especially if you’re like me and you think Portland is actually in the second-to-last tier of the NBA, and not the last tier. The flip-side of that, of course, is that beating the very worst teams in the league is a disservice to the Blazers’ future.

All that being said, if there ever was an important game for these Trail Blazers to win at this moment in time, it would be Monday when the face off against the team tied for the second worst record in the league. I say this not because it will have an impact on the future of this season, and also knowing full well that Portland and Toronto are going to be in a dog fight for ping pong balls this spring. I think the Blazers need to win Monday to prove to themselves that they still can.

Portland has had a number of “pretty important to win for the betterment of the near future” games already this season. Last month the Blazers played the Rockets at home after starting the season 1-3 at the Rose Garden and having lost all three games in a short home stand. They won that one. On the road, Portland played a win-less Washington Wizards team after losing to a bad Detroit Pistons team. We know how that went. So, as far as these games go, the Blazers are 1-1.

Monday is as good a time as any for a rubber match.

Blazers Starting 5: PG Damian Lillard, SG Wesley Matthews, SF Luke Babbitt, PF LaMarcus Aldridge, C J.J. Hickson

Raptors Starting 5: PG Kyle Lowry, SG DeMar DeRozan, SF Linas Kleiza, PF, Andrea Bargnani, C Jonas Valanciunas

It’s kind of strange to say this, but Toronto has a couple of guys on the roster who could give Portland fits Monday night. Kyle Lowry played a number of great games in the Rose Garden as a Rocket. DeMar DeRozan is the kind of rim attacker who will benefit from the fact that the Blazers don’t have a shot blocker on the roster. I feel like last time I checked in on Linas Kleiza, he could shoot threes, and everybody who has watched Portland at least once this season knows that shooters playing the Blazers tend to not miss very often.

The match-up that the Blazers can and should take advantage of, and could swing this game in Portland’s favor, is going to be LaMarcus Aldridge versus Andrea Bargnani. LA and Bargs will always be linked. Bargnani was taken first overall in the 2006 NBA draft by the Toronto Raptors, LaMarcus was taken second by the Chicago Bulls and then immediately traded to the Trail Blazers. It was Andrea’s five-year $50 million contract that turned the power forward market on it’s ear and led to a difficult negotiation for LaMarcus’s extension.

Monday when the two face off, one has become the albatross around his team’s neck (NOT LA) and the other is basically the only thing between his team a 10-win season (now I’m talking about LA). LaMarcus should be able to dominate Bargnani. Whether or not he will, or whether or not Bargs will be able to stretch the defense with his shooting and have some kind of positive impact on his team, is why this game is going to be played.

What to Watch For

• Who plays, how much, and how well. As of this writing, it has been announced that Nicolas Batum is out and Wesley Matthews is a game-time decision. So far no starter as been announced to replace Nic. I’m going with Luke Babbitt. If Wesley doesn’t play, things could get ugly in a hurry for Portland. That is unless Babbitt can knock down 25 straight three-pointers. I would say that Matthews wants to play, considering how poorly his team did Saturday, but he said this morning to Joe Freeman that he understands the danger of getting hurt for real. The good news is that Will Barton and Victor Claver are back from the D-League, so at least with two down there are two more coming. **UPDATE** It has been announced that Wesley Matthews is also a scratch for Monday’s game. The starting SG, SF for tonight will be Sasha Pavlovic and Victor Claver. I’m no D-League historian, but I bet there have been very few instances of a guy playing in the D-League one night and starting in the NBA the next.
• Can Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge win this game on their own. They couldn’t beat the Kings by themselves, but at least they know coming into the game Monday that they’ll be down a couple very potent weapons.
• Are people going to show up. When the Blazers’ brass announced the re-birth of the sellout streak only a few games after announcing the original streak’s demise, I thought it was a bit premature considering that games such as Monday’s existed. If it were my team to run, and my streak to start and stop with impunity, I would have waited to get it going again. The RG wasn’t empty empty on Saturday night (not empty like Charlotte, Detroit, or Washington) but it certainly wasn’t full. My guess is there will be fewer fans on hand Monday than there were Saturday. It will be hard for management to justify juicing the numbers this early in their new campaign. Maybe there’s a book out there that says five or six three-game sellout streaks are more important to a growing franchise than one dubiously extended sellout streak. I don’t know. I’m not President of the Trail Blazers.

@mikeacker | @ripcityproject | mike.acker1@gmail.com