November 11, 2012; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Atlanta Hawks power forward Ivan Johnson (44) blocks a shot by Los Angeles Clippers point guard Eric Bledsoe (12) in the second half at the Staples Center. Clippers won 89-76. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-US PRESSWIRE

 

Hey @teamlou23 are you and Josh Smith playing tonight?If not then I’m betting Portland. Dm me before the line changes.

— Hannibal Buress (@hannibalburess) November 12, 2012

The above tweet is apropos of nothing, unless you think the fact that Hannibal Buress is absolutely hilarious and will be in Portland later this month (November the 26th to be exact) playing a show with local hilarious dude Ian Karmel in some way pertains to Monday night’s match-up between the Blazers and the Hawks at the Rose Garden.

Atlanta comes to town on the second night of a back-to-back, having played and lost in Los Angeles to the Clippers on Sunday night. The Hawks are also the losers of their last two games, and as far as I can tell having not spent any time actually watching Atlanta they seem to be struggling just a little bit following the departure of Joe Johnson.

Portland, who I have seen play just a little bit in 2012-13, are also struggling, and very much like the Hawks are in need of win right about now. The Blazers have always played better at home, but have started this most recent season 1-2 in the Rose Garden. Not just does Portland needs to stop a three-game skid, they need to prove that they can carry strong home showings (which they’ve had in all three home games) through to meaningful home victories. The leash is long with this team considering its relative young age, the atrocity that was last season, and the inspired play of the starting unit, but a win-less home stand is not how a team of any age or prospective end of the year positioning wants to start a long and trying season.

Blazers Starting 5: PG Damian Lillard, SG Wesley Matthews, SF Nicolas Batum, PF LaMarcus Aldridge, C J.J. Hickson

Hawks Starting 5: PG Jeff Teague, SG Kyle Korver, SF Josh Smith, PF Al Horford, C Zaza Pachulia

Take a look at those starting lineups. It’s hard to look at scenario in which Portland is outmatched at any position. Al Horford is a strong power forward, one of the best in the league, but he is going to get stretched out on defense against LaMarcus Aldridge and his offensive strengths can be neutralized pretty effectively by LA’s length. Jeff Teague/Kyle Korver are no Lillard/Matthews even if Matthews can’t match the gunner from Creighton (a nickname that for some unfathomable reason has yet to catch on) shot for shot. I’ll take Nicolas Batum over Josh Smith especially if Smith decides to jog up and down the court and shoot ill-advised jumpers. Pachulia versus J.J. is something of a push, but if J.J. is wanting to bang down low, as his recent tweets may suggest, there’s nobody better than the Georgian bruiser (another nickname not gaining any leverage for who knows what reason) to get that started against.

So, this game will come down, as the last game did and as every game will for some time, to the bench. Atlanta’s bench looks like this: Devin Harris (former All-Star), Lou Williams (noted Blazer killer), Ivan Johnson (anger management issue sufferer), and Anthony Tolliver (former Portland Trail Blazer 10-day contract earner). Blazer fans would take any single one of those players coming off Portland’s bench right about now.

What to Watch For

• Can somebody step up? I don’t care who it is. Sean Highkin at Portland Roundball Society brought up a good point about Portland’s bench problem having more to do with personnel than with how bench player numbers are the anchor dragging this team to the bottom of the figurative NBA sea. Head coach Terry Stotts can not be blamed by switching up who plays how much and when considering that it probably can’t get worse than Saturday night. In case you live under a rock, Portland’s bench scored four points compared with 63 points against San Antonio’s bench.
• Meyers Leonard. Atlanta is a lot like Portland in that they are basically playing without a center. Pachulia is 6’11”. Ivan Johnson is 6’8”. Meyers Leonard is 7’1”. He can play big. He can finish around the rim, especially when he is being guarded by a guy who gives up a couple of inches. Meyers had his best game against the Clippers, and although he accounted for 50% of Portland’s bench scoring against the Spurs, I would say Saturday was his worst showing. His defense was suspect. He shot two very bad jumpers in the middle of the second half run that killed Portland’s lead and helped San Antonio basically steal a win. I like Meyers as a player. I think he can be an x-factor for the Blazers once he figures it all out. Monday night he’ll be the only real big man on the floor. He needs to realize that and take advantage of it.
• Will Portland play with a sense of urgency? Six games into an 82-game season is not time to panic for a team without much in the way of expectations. But like I said earlier, this team needs to play like winning matters and they need to win to keep the fan base engaged. The home crowd is going to be thirsting for only Portland’s second home win. The sooner they get it the better, because if that win doesn’t come until later this week or at worst next week or next month there isn’t going to be anybody around to see it. Rebuilding is no fun. At some point Portlanders are going to find some other way to spend their free time and disposable income.

In case you didn’t believe me, Hannibal Burres is in fact very very funny.

@mikeacker | @ripcityproject | mike.acker1@gmail.com

Just kidding, this isn’t one of those pieces. Outside of some courtesy phone calls, the Blazers aren’t going anywhere near any of the many free agents expected to get max or near-max contracts. Beyond that, those guys aren’t worth your time discussing. What is worth discussing is what Portland can do with the Mid Level Exception.

Since the Blazers will be over the salary cap once the extensions to LaMarcus Aldridge and Brandon Roy kick in, Portland will have the MLE in hand to offer any free agent a contract of up to five years at the league-average salary, which will probably come in a little over $6 million per year. That may not seem like much, but both good and overrated players sign for the MLE every year, and if used correctly it’s a great tool to fill out a rotation with specialists and role players.

It can also royally screw your salary cap situation if you either A. Use the MLE too often or B. Use it to overpay players like Marcus Banks, Chris Duhon or Brian Cardinal.

That said, let’s take a look at some of Portland’s potential options this summer. Clearly, Portland’s strategy in free agency will hinge on the sort of players they get in the draft, so when going down the list, assume we’re talking about each player as though they wouldn’t be overly superfluous with recent picks. As you’ll see after the jump, the primary theme is shooting, shooting, shooting.
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• Portland boasts a 2-17 record in Utah since 2001. That’s right they have dropped 17 of their last 19.
• Blazers boast an overall record of 8-30 in the Delta Center/EnergySolutions Arena since it opened in 1991. That’s just regular season too.
• Utah has not lost a home game since a January 4th loss to New Orleans.
• Exactly one week ago, the Jazz stomped Portland at home, opening up the game on a 21-2 run.

Alright let that sink in….moving on. This is a Jazz team that is absolutely on a roll. They are a win or two away from getting that extra attention that streaking teams get on SportsCenter. You know those handful of teams who may not want the All-Star Break to show up just because of how well they have been playing? I would put the Jazz in that category. They are winners of 11 of their last 13 and have found a way to overcome a rough start and threaten for home court advantage out West. As Coup illustrated last week, this team has always been a tough matchup for Portland. But now with our front court depth diminished, you can see how more problems will arise. And the Jazz exploited this fact last Wednesday, getting whatever they wanted in the pain early and often, setting a tone on a night where they ended up shooting 60 percent from the field.

The Jazz have their weapons. There is a reason they lead the league in field goal percentage (49) and it’s because of their discipline. Obviously Deron Williams (19 points, 9.7 assists a game) is a monster. The guy we have to worry about is Paul Millsap. He’s a Blazer-killer and with Boozer out of the lineup he has just turned into something unreal. In the last two games since being inserted into the starting lineup, he’s averaging 28.5 points a game and 11.5 rebounds. Good luck Juwan/Pendergraph/Cunningham. Another guy you want to watch out for is Mehmet Okur. His numbers are down (only averaging 12 points a game compared to 17 last year) but he still is a huge threat with his ability to shoot the ball from the outside and rebound.

Offensively, Portland is going to have to have great discipline. On Wednesday there was a little bit of settling early, almost a ‘wait and see’ vibe. There is a reason Utah was up 21-2. They were getting dunks/layups while we were missing jumpers or getting layups blocked. Portland has to be in attack mode from the start. Utah wants you to shoot jumpers, they will give that up. All of a sudden those misses turn into easy transition for them. LaMarcus Aldridge has to be ready not only for the physical play of Utah’s bigs, but for their defensive schemes. The Jazz did a great job of taking LMA out of a rhythm last week.

Keys to the game

Need a great start: If you take away that nightmarish first quarter from last Wednesday’s game, we actually won by 12. That means that while beating the Jazz is tough, it is not impossible. We will need a good start though. Digging ourselves a hole in Utah is a horrible idea. You know how quickly a 5 point lead can turn into a 12 point lead in that building. As a matter of fact if you remember all the way to our early-season visit to Utah we were staring 11-2 in the eyes in less than three minutes.

Protect the paint: Last Wednesday, Utah owned our soul like they were the Undertaker in the early 90′s. It was a dunk/layup fest early in the first quarter. The Blazers can’t allow Utah to set a tone like that, because as evidenced by last week it could be  rough night.

Don’t Let Utah Score 100: What is coinciding with Utah’s recent surge? They are scoring the ball a lot better. They have scored 100 points in 11 of their last 15 games and ended up winning 10 of those games. Get this stat: the Jazz are 17-1 at home when scoring 100 points or more. We need to make this a slugfest.

Beware of the Pick and Roll: Deron Williams attacking, Paul Millsap rolling, Kyle Korver/Okur spotted up. This would cause me nightmares. Let’s pray the Blazers packed their rotating boots.

Need balanced scoring/make shots: Last Wednesday, Rudy/Martell/Blake combined to shoot 6-for-28 from the field. That can’t happen if Portland wants to win in Utah. The win over Charlotte showed that when the bench is playing their butts off, there are few teams that can play with us. The bench needs to show up in a big way tonight. The second part….you can get good looks against this team. You just have to make them if you want to beat them.

This is going to be a tough one for Portland. I’ve been brainwashed because of all the L’s we took in Utah when I was little to just believe we can’t win so pardon my Negative Nancy impersonation. A focused effort on both ends will allow Portland to sneak out with a win. As long as we contain the paint, don’t let Kyle Korver hit a ton of threes and execute for good shots we actually have a shot. I think.