Jamal Crawford guards Andre Miller during the second quarter of Wednesday’s game at the Pepsi Center. Credit: Ron Chenoy-US PRESSWIRE

I said in my preview that Wednesday’s game against the Nuggets in Denver is going to give us a good idea of what to expect from Portland for the rest of the season. Well, I think this game accomplished that. I think that it also showed us fans probably the clearest reason as to why the Blazers have not been as good as they should be, and why, following this most recent loss and tomorrow’s probable loss to the Miami Heat, they’re sitting at .500 (projection) and at least one spot removed from the Western Conference Playoff table.

What’s that reason, you ask? Lack of engagement. More than usual, this Blazer squad has been unable to get involved in games early. We saw it in the team’s first home loss to Orlando, we saw it against the Lakers in an absolute shame-fest of a first quarter, and we saw it again Wednesday. Before the Blazers could blink, before they could find any kind of rhythm on either side of the ball, before we could get to the first TV timeout, Portland was down double digits. I firmly believe you can’t lose a game in the first three or four minutes, but what you can do is set yourself up for a long, tough night.

Wednesday it wasn’t just offense–terrible shot making was partially to blame for the LA debacle–that held Portland out of this game until the middle of the first quarter. Denver was getting whatever they wanted going to the hoop.

One or two passes, and there was a Nugget with the ball in his hands and not a Blazer within five feet. And if that guy, most times a dead-eye like Al Harrington or capable shooter like Arron Afflalo or Ty Lawson, missed the wide open jumper, well then Kenneth Faried or Timofey Mozgov was standing right under the hoop without so much as a single guy in a Portland jersey to contend with.

The Blazers weren’t playing defense, they weren’t rebounding, where were they? And that’s the question we’ve been asking an awful lot lately with this team. As they’re known to do, Portland made a run, and got it close enough in the fourth quarter so that everybody probably watched the game all the way to the end. But it’s clear, although this team can play well from behind, they can’t come all the way back from 19 down. And really, who can?

There are still plenty of games left for Portland to make up the distance they’ve put between themselves and the contenders in the West, but they’ve got to make some changes if they want to avoid having to play from behind for the rest of the season. So what’s the solution? Well I would suggest the Blazers get to start the game four or five minutes before their opponent, that way they’ll get all their bad play out the systems before they have to actually see another team, but you know that’s not going to happen.

How about coach Nate McMillan says that on offense the first five possessions have to go through LaMarcus Aldridge? That might decrease the number of bad jump shots that lead to long rebounds and fast breaks going the other direction. How about Nate gets on his guys to crash the defensive glass hard for the first seven minutes and forget about running altogether? I’m not really a big fan of telling everybody to stay put on defense, fast breaks are the best method of getting an offense from idle to high gear, but giving up second chance points the way Portland did Wednesday is a good way to lose a game.

Maybe Nate needs to do something that isn’t tactical. Maybe these guys need to see a sports psychologist. There were times in the middle of this game where the Blazers looked like they’d given up. There’s no reason for this team to believe they can’t win games, and there certainly is no reason for this team to give up in the middle of a game or in the middle of a season that can still have a positive result.

How can I say that Portland can still turn this into a positive season? Well, if you watched closely Wednesday night there were some pretty positive things coming from the Blazers. On more than one possession they got an open and easy look by passing the ball more than once. Ball movement has been rare for Portland lately, as they’ve started to rely more and more on isolation plays to get open shots. Seeing the Blazers make an obvious effort to move the ball, and having that effort pay off has to be considered a step in the right direction. More positives? Jamal Crawford looked smooth with his jumper. Raymond Felton played well for stretches. Elliot Williams got some important minutes and made the most of them.

Sure much of what the Blazers did well was negated by a slow start, an abysmal finish to the first half, and an inability to string together stops and scores at the end of the game when it was relatively close. But those shortcomings shouldn’t be grounds for chucking the whole season, or whatever is left of the whole season.

It doesn’t get easier from here for Portland. Miami’s next. If the Heat get the kind of second chance points and effortless offense the Blazers let the Nuggets have, that game will literally be over in the first quarter. But beyond just Thursday’s game, there isn’t going to be a lot of gimmies coming down the pike. Portland will have to show up to beat teams like Minnesota or Golden State. And now they don’t have a choice.

We’ve reached the point where the Blazers’ play has severely limited the team’s chances of getting to take nights off. They’re now going to have to beat every bad team they play just to make the Playoffs. Missing the Playoffs isn’t the end of the world (it might be the end of Gerald Wallace’s time in Portland, Jamal Crawford’s too) but this team is too good, has too much potential, to fall to lottery status just because they haven’t been trying.

Couple of quick things:

• I mentioned Elliot Williams earlier. Mike Tokito of The Oregonian pretty much nailed Elliot’s night with this tweet. I would love to see Williams get a few more minutes and some more regular touches. I will saw this though. Elliot made a couple, glaring rookie mistakes. One in particular happened in the second half. Elliot came up with one of Portland’s very few offensive rebounds, but found himself under the hoop staring down two of Denver’s big guys. Instead of looking to get the ball out and reset the offense, Williams tried to take on both defenders, likely in an attempt to draw a foul. He didn’t get the foul, he didn’t get the hoop, he barely got the shot off. Williams is a freak of nature athlete, but so are most of the guys in the NBA. He’s going to have to figure out who he can out leap and out muscle and who he can’t. If he can develop the thinking part of his game he’ll be a player. Hopefully Nate lets him keep running the rest of the second half of the season, so we can see some development in that area.
• Kurt Thomas got his bell rung pretty seriously at the beginning of the game Wednesday night, and was diagnosed with a minor concussion. Head injuries have become a hot button topic in all of professional sports (See Kobe Bryant or THE NFL), so there’s a very good chance Thomas will not play Thursday night against the Heat. That means there’s a chance Joel Pryzbilla will be activated–I wouldn’t count on it though–and that Chris Johnson might get to play a little bit. CJ got in Wednesday night, and had an impact. It could be a coincidence that the Blazers made one of their better runs while Johnson was on the court, I choose to think it wasn’t. Whatever the case may be, CJ has to know that he’s very likely to be demoted when Joel is ready to play. He’s the kind of player who knows how to take advantage of what he’s given.
• Last off-season Kenneth Faried from Morehead State was a guy Blazer internet enthusiasts wanted desperately to see in Portland. It was not to be. Wednesday night Faried finished with 13 points and 10 rebounds. The really impressive stat, though, was that seven of his rebounds were on the offensive end. The Blazers as a team only had four more offensive rebounds than Faried. That’s trouble.
• Minutes Watch: PG comparison. Raymond Felton 23:54 off the bench six points, seven assists, two rebounds, one steal, one turnover. Not bad. Jamal Crawford 35:46 as a starter 21 points, five assists, five rebounds, one steal, two blocks, one turnover. A little bit better. However, on plus/minus, Jamal finished -9, Raymond had the ever illusive zero.
• Standings Watch: If the Playoffs started tomorrow, the Blazers would be watching from their couches. Good thing we’ve got 31 games left.

Box Score

Standings

Nugg Love

Email me: mike.acker1@gmail.com

Twitter: @mikeacker | @ripcityproject

Easily the best picture of Joe Johnson I could find in 30 seconds of searching. Photo courtesy of The Program 101.

Blazers: 8-5 (3rd Northwest Division)

Hawks: 10-4 (2nd Southeast Division)

Game Details: Phillips Arena, Atlanta, GA. 5:00 PM. TV: CSNW, ESPN Radio: 750 AM (KXTG)

Projected Portland Starting Lineup: PG Raymond Felton (#5, 6’1”, North Carolina), SG Wesley Matthews (#2, 6’5″, Marquette), SF Gerald Wallace (#3, 6’7″, Alabama), PF LaMarcus Aldridge (#12, 6’11″, Texas), C Kurt Thomas (#40, 6’9″, Texas Christian)

Projected Atlanta Starting Lineup: PG Jeff Teague (#0, 6’2”, Wake Forest), SG Joe Johnson (#2, 6’7”, Arkansas), SF Marvin Williams (#24, 6’9”, North Carolina), PF Josh Smith (#5, 6’9”, Oak Hill Academy, Mouth of Wilson, VA), C Jason Collins (#34, 7′, Stanford)

We’ve passed the halfway point in this first extended road trip (just a note, between the seventh and the 18 of March, Portland is on the road for seven games–six tough ones and one in Washington–but after that their longest road trip is only three games, and consists of the final three games of the season); 1-2 isn’t a great record, but it still leaves Portland with a chance to finish the trip with a winning record.

To finish 4-2 the Blazers have to win out. Following Wednesday’s match-up with Atlanta, Portland plays a back-to-back in Toronto and Detroit. The Raptors and the Pistons have a combined seven wins. I’m not in the business of penciling in wins with the way this team has played on the road, but we are all allowed to panic should the Blazers lose to either of those teams. Which means, should Portland want to finish at least 3-3, they need to beat the Hawks.

It won’t be easy. Atlanta has won three in a row (albeit against three sub .500 teams), and has already posted wins in 2011-12 against Chicago and Miami; not to mention, Portland hasn’t beaten the Hawks since early 2009. There are some definite weaknesses with this Atlanta team, though, and luckily they just happen to play mostly to Portland’s strength.

First, Al Horford is out with a torn pectoral muscle. He recently had surgery, but he’s expected to miss three to four months. Horford is probably Atlanta’s most complete player. He’s a strong rebounder, a consistent scorer, and a better than average man-to-man defender. Losing Horford means that Atlanta has to rely more heavily on Marvin Williams and Josh Smith to play interior defense. Smith likes to defend from the weak-side so he can get highlight, Nicolas Batum-esque, blocks; nobody has ever accused Marvin Williams of playing defense. Also, Atlanta has to play more minutes with Jason Collins in the lineup. Collins is basically a non-factor. In his one start this season he played 13 minutes and missed his only attempted shot.

Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, and Jason Collins should have their hands full with LaMarcus Aldridge. After that Atlanta has Zaza Pachulia and Ivan Johnson to throw at him. I don’t know much about Johnson, beyond that he looks a little bit like Mr. T and spent some time at the University of Oregon, but Pachulia is known to be a thorn in LA’s side. LaMarcus has to learn to play against big guys that body him up. Going from Samuel Dalembert in Houston, to Emeka Okafor in New Orleans should prepare him for whatever ATL can bring. If LaMarcus has a big game, the Blazers should have a shot.

Another weakness of Atlanta’s that can be exploited by Portland is their tendency to play a lot of isolation. Joe Johnson is a classic iso player, Josh Smith wants to be Joe Johnson and isn’t, and Jeff Teague is steadily developing into a scoring point guard. The Blazers have been very effective in man-up coverage so far this season, and equally as ineffective in defensive rotations.

Two games as examples: Against Orlando, Portland was slow to close out on shooters, had poor help-side rotations, and generally let the Magic get open looks when the ball switched sides of the key. The result was an outstanding shooting night and a Blazer loss. Against Sacramento, a “team” made up of guys that think they’re playing one-on-one, Portland tightened up their man defense in the second half, limited Sac’s shooters to long contested jump shots, and held the ice cold Kings to 33 points in the final 24 minutes.

Atlanta is much better than Sacramento, but they don’t have a player like Dwight Howard, a guy that requires help from the wings every time he touches the ball. Joe Johnson can knock down shots, Jeff Teague can score, Willie Green off the bench has his moments. But they shouldn’t be getting as many open looks as Portland gave up to the Magic.

Finally, Atlanta isn’t as deep as Portland. Although depth has yet to be a major boon for the Blazers, there is still something to be said for being able to go nine deep, especially at the front court positions. With Horford out, Portland can attack the basket inside all night long. Craig Smith is starting to find an offensive groove, Kurt Thomas is a reliable scorer, these guys should be able to take advantage of the fact that the Hawks’ third forward off the bench is Tracy McGrady.

The Hawks are also without Kirk Hinrich, meaning Teague is carrying a lot of weight with running the offense. If Raymond Felton can get his offensive game going, making Teague use some energy on defense or better yet get into foul trouble, Portland’s guards should have a big advantage.

All told, there are plenty of reasons to think that the Blazers should be able to beat Atlanta in Atlanta, something they did for the last time in 2008. But I can also come up with one big reason why another road loss won’t come as a surprise. Portland hasn’t been able to get it together on the road. They haven’t been able to establish their game, they’ve struggled to limit their mistakes, and they’ve been basically unable to make their opponents pay for their mistakes. At this point I feel like to win on the road, the Blazers have to string together an almost perfect 48 minutes. They have yet to do that this season, but that doesn’t mean it’s not possible.

Here’s a few things to pay attention to:

• Jamal Crawford: This will be Jamal’s first trip back to Atlanta, where he spent the 2009-10 and 2010-11 seasons and won the Sixth Man of the Year Award for 09-10. Jamal has played for five teams in 11 seasons, so it’s not as if this is going to be his first homecoming. I do think, though, he’ll have an extra incentive to go big against his old teammates. Also, Crawford had some pretty great games against the Blazers while in a Hawks jersey. In four games Jamal averaged 19 points, putting up 27 in Atlanta’s 97-91 win back on November 3rd 2009. So even if Crawford doesn’t have a big game, one of Atlanta’s strongest offensive weapons is now playing for their opponent.
• Will Portland play to the level of their competition: I mentioned in my New Orleans recap that Portland has been labeled as a team that plays differently depending on their opponent. Atlanta is a good team, a bona fide Playoff team in either conference. If the Blazers play the same way they did against the Hornets, they’re in trouble. If they play up to Atlanta’s level, they can definitely come away with this win. Playing up to an opponent’s level isn’t good, it’s better than playing down of course, but it’s still better for Portland to try a figure out a way to play their game, regardless of who their opponent may be. But if playing up means a win, I’ll take it.
• What the guys on ESPN have to say: I’ll be watching ESPN’s feed of this game, mostly because I can handle the “sky is falling” attitude of Mike and Mike when this start go wrong for the Blazers. One thing everybody who chooses ESPN should pay attention to is what the national game callers have to say about the Blazers. Two weeks in, Portland was the popular favorite to take the Western Conference. They’ve fallen to earth a bit, and at this point, top four seems like the high end of the realistic expectations spectrum. My guess is, if we get a guy like Hubie Brown, there won’t be too much talk about the Blazers being the best team in west–Oklahoma City is right now 12-2 and are playing like they could finish the season without another loss–and hopefully there also won’t be too many accusations of Portland being unable to live up to the early hype.

email me: mike.acker1@gmail.com

Twitter: @mikeacker | @ripcityproject

Steve Nash is an elder statesman of NBA fashion. Photo courtesy of Sports Illustrated.

Blazers: 5-1 (1st Northwest Division)

Suns: 2-4 (4th Pacific Division)

Game Details: US Airways Arena, Phoenix, AZ. 7:30 PM. TV: ESPN, CSNW. Radio: KXTG (750 AM)

Projected Portland Starting Lineup: PG Raymond Felton (#5, 6’1”, North Carolina), SG Wesley Matthews (#2, 6’5″, Marquette), SF Gerald Wallace (#3, 6’7″, Alabama), PF LaMarcus Aldridge (#12, 6’11″, Texas), C Marcus Camby (#23, 6’11″, UMass)

Projected Phoenix Starting Lineup: PG Steve Nash (#13, 6’3”, Santa Clara), SG Jared Dudley (#3, 6’7”, Boston College), SF Grant Hill (#33, 6’8”, Duke), PF Channing Frye (#8, 6’11”, Arizona), C Marcin Gortat (#4, 6’11”, Lodz, Poland)

How’s everybody doing? I hope you haven’t taken a deep breath since last night’s big victory over the LA Lakers. I hope Portland hasn’t let all the adrenaline wear off. Here’s why, heading down to Phoenix on a Friday to play the first of two relative bunnies to close out a tough week in the first the month of want will be one of the most insane basketball season in the history of the Association is the literal definition of a trap game.

The Trail Blazers are the hottest thing on two legs right now in the basketball world. Charles Barkley and Steve Kerr love them. Tas Melas of the infinitely wise Basketball Jones crew (the Wu-Tang of b-ball bloggers) ran out of superlatives for the Blazers in today’s Overdose in his first breath. This is a good team (I think for this season I might change the name of this blog to This Is A Good Team because I feel like I say it at least twice in every piece). They are going to have a target on their heads from now on.

Phoenix is not a good team, and that is why this could be a trap game. Two years ago the Suns fell short of representing the West in the NBA Finals by two games, losing in six to the eventual champion Los Angeles Lakers. That same year they beat Portland in what was the first of Brandon Roy’s historic Playoff comebacks. That team is not this team. They’ve given up Amar’e and Jason Richardson–Blazer killers both–Steve Nash is finally starting to get older, their role players have become starters and their bench has disappeared, they have to rely on Robin Lopez.

So why is this a trap game? Because Portland hasn’t done super well in Phoenix, Steve Nash is still Steve Nash–although he can’t win games all by himself–and this team might just take the night off, thinking that Cleveland will be a snore, and that their re-match with the Clippers in the Rose Garden is going to be the GAME OF THE SEASON (so far).

Here’s how Portland avoids the trap: don’t take the night off. If the Blazers play their game–their game being feed LaMarcus Aldridge early and let Gerald Wallace eat people–they should have no problem making this one a blowout. But going out expecting to get a blowout is also classic trap game material.

This could turn out to be a much bigger game than Portland wants it to be. Right now everybody in the league is salivating at the chance to be the guys that takes the league’s new darling down a peg or two. That is every team that isn’t in the middle of an early season crisis, which at this point seems to only be the Blazers, the Bulls, the Heat, and a couple others that have started to establish themselves as league leaders.

Here’s what I’m watching for:

• Will Portland come out early and establish themselves: There isn’t a single guy on this Phoenix roster that I would take over a single guy on the Portland roster. Sorry, not even Steve Nash. I love his game, but as of the last two games, I a full fledged, Jason Quick-esque Raymond Felton supporter. He’s the guy to run this team. So Friday, Portland’s task will be to get out and dictate the pace and the style, and play their game. There is no better way to do that than get LA going right from the drop. Marcin Gortat is serviceable, but that’s it. Nobody else in a Suns jersey can defend LaMarcus. Portland should recognize that, and take advantage. I’m predicting LA gets at or around 30.
• Turnovers: Portland has taken care of the ball extremely well too nights in a row. Will they do it again. This isn’t a young team, and it isn’t an undisciplined team. There is no reason they should revert at any point against any team this season.
• Can they maintain their high from Thursday: If so they win going away. If not, Phoenix can stick around and maybe pull off a miracle.
• End of the bench guys: Nate McMillan has gone to a nine-man rotation in the last two games (getting very solid minutes from Craig Smith and Kurt Thomas) and Nolan Smith, Elliot Williams, and Chris Johnson haven’t smelled the court since game number two. The Blazer regulars should be gunning to get those guys into the game.

email me: mike.acker1@gmail.com

Twitter: @mikeacker | @ripcityproject