Joe Johnson got the better of Gerald Wallace and Portland, who haven't found a way to win on the road. Photo courtesy of the AP.

At this point, Portland is basically two teams. At home they play an efficient, team-based game, which features a good combination of running and half court sets, confident shot making, and strong perimeter and man-to-man defending. On the road? Let’s not even go there.

Or, if we’re going to go there I can at least say this: the Blazers are thus far not even close to the team they are at home when they’re not in the Rose Garden. In Wednesday night’s loss to Atlanta, Portland played probably as well as they have in any of the last five games (four of which have been losses), but they still showed a lot of what has been plaguing them in road games this season. Mostly stagnant  offense, inconsistent defense, and almost a complete failure to take advantage of their opportunities.

It was that inability to turn extra possessions into points that ultimately doomed another decent come from behind effort. By the end of the evening, Portland had 92 field goal attempts, Atlanta had 71. The Blazers had 10 steals–five from Wesley Matthews alone, the Hawks turned it over 14 times, but time and again turn overs and second chance points ended in nothing at all.

The play that in my mind typified Portland’s play Monday night came with 1:30 left, and the final outcome far from decided. With the Blazers trailing by four, Jamal Crawford missed a lay-up, Josh Smith scooped up the rebound, and in an attempt to get a fast break going fired a length of the court pass in the direction of Joe Johnson. Wesley Matthews, playing free safety, stepped up and snagged the pass, and turned Atlanta’s fast break into a Portland fast break. But Wesley didn’t protect the ball, and didn’t see Johnson coming up behind him, and got his pocket picked. Johnson went the other way, threw an alley-oop to Jeff Teague, and instead of the Blazers cutting a four point lead to two or one (or none with the always possible Jamal Crawford four-pointer) the Hawks pushed their lead to six, Portland had to burn a timeout, and the odds the Blazers were going to pull this one out basically dropped to zero.

There were other instances, too, when Portland just seemed to be unable to get out of their own way. A sloppy and lazy turnover on an in-bounds play with six seconds to play. Two missed free throws by LaMarcus Aldridge who otherwise had another really really good game.

But not all of Portland’s mistakes came in the game’s waning minutes. Early in the game the Blazers had plenty of second chance looks that they couldn’t convert. Portland’s first two possessions including offensive rebounds that went begging. A possession here, and a possession there add up. Getting those extra looks at the basket is great way to win on the road, but they need to be turned into points.

It’s hard to say what it is that kept Portland from taking advantage of second-chance opportunities. It wasn’t bad shot selection, most of the Blazers’ misses came right at the rim, so maybe we can chalk it up to sore legs, or lack of rhythm early. Whatever the case may be, capitalizing on those extra possessions would have been nice. I’m not saying Portland lost on Wednesday because they didn’t convert on either of their first two second-chance possessions. I’m just saying that in a three-point game, on the road, every possession counts.

Give Atlanta a lot of credit too. They tried hard to lose this game, especially in the fourth quarter. Portland outscored Atlanta by 10 in the game’s final 12 minutes, and the bulk of the Hawks’ scoring came at the end of the quarter. Atlanta didn’t get their first fourth quarter bucket until the 6:35 mark of the quarter, and their 13-point lead had completely evaporated. But where Portland couldn’t make their extra looks at the hoop, Atlanta could. In Wednesday’s final frame, Joe Johnson, and then Josh Smith stepped up and knocked down shots when Atlanta needed them the most.

Give Joe Johnson credit too. He doesn’t always play like a max salary guy, but he did on Wednesday. Johnson shot 8-of-19 from the field after coming out very cold, and hit four threes on his way to a game-high 24 points. Chris Mullin, calling the game for ESPN, called Johnson “Lebron light.” I personally wouldn’t go that far, but when that dude gets hot, he’s one of the best players in the league. He’s big, so smaller guys can’t guard him; he’s quick and has a good first step, so bigs struggle against him defensively; and he can hit from anywhere on the floor, so you can’t leave him alone. Most nights, I think of Joe Johnson as a sleepwalker. Wednesday he woke up after a bad first quarter, and he earned his millions.

One thing that stands out for me as Portland continues to be barely effective on the road, is this team’s inability to score. Wednesday, Wesley Matthews shot 2-of-13 from the floor and 1-of-7 from deep. Wesley compensated with five free throws, but Gerald Wallace wasn’t as lucky. Crash went 4-of-12 from the field, o-of-2 from three, and 0-of-2 from the line. If the Blazers are going to win games anywhere, Gerald Wallace needs to score more than eight points.

The Blazers fall to 1-3 on this trip, with two games remaining before they get another home game. Luckily Portland gets those two against the Raptors and the Pistons. Toronto lost on Wednesday to Boston; Detroit fell to Minnesota. Those are two bad teams. Nothing is guaranteed in this league so the Blazers better prepare. They no doubt feel like they should be better than 1-3 in their last four road games, but if they don’t finish this trip 3-3 it might be time to panic. San Antonio is a Playoff team, as is Atlanta, Portland just can’t win in Houston. We can rationalize those losses. Losing to Detroit and Toronto is not an option.

Portland’s home stretch starts in Toronto on Friday.

Couple of things:

• Nicolas Batum took a finger in the eye from super vet Tracy McGrady  in Wednesday’s second quarter. He was taken to a local hospital, and x-rays were negative for orbital fracture. He’s listed as day-to-day, but it doesn’t sound serious. Nic is a big part of this team, he has been Portland’s most consistent player through this tough trip, so he needs to get back to the court. That being said, if coach Nate McMillan believes the Blazers can win without him in Toronto or the next night in Detroit, I don’t begrudge him holding Nic out. Having a healthy Batum is key for the long term. Having him healthy for the Playoff run is more important than having him back Friday night.
• Jamal Crawford had a good game in his return to Atlanta. Chris Mullin wanted him to go for 50. He finished with 22. He had his share of bad looks, but there were a few times late in the game when Crawford didn’t get the ball when I thought he should have. I feel like this fan base is pretty split on Jamal at this point. I fall pretty firmly on the pro side, but can easily see the cons. I like Jamal because he’s one of the few guys on this team who can get his own shot. He also has the mindset that his next shot is going down, regardless of the outcome of his last 10. Again, that leads to plenty of bad shots, but it’s better than disappearing when things aren’t going well.
• I hate to be that kind of guy, but Wednesday night Andre Miller’s line in Denver’s OT win over the Philadelphia 76ers was 28 points, 10 assists, eight rebounds, +18. That team is 10-5, and is one of three teams ahead of Portland in the Northwest Division.
• Minutes watch: 9:55 for Nolan Smith. Raymond Felton is struggling. Maybe some pressure from beneath for a couple of his minutes will help him tighten the screws. Nolan played ok. More consistent minutes and he can be a real contributor.

Box Score

Standings

Soaring Down South

email me: mike.acker1@gmail.com

Twitter: @mikeacker | @ripcityproject

I can't wait for this movie to come out. Photo courtesy of the AP.

Easily the best picture of Joe Johnson I could find in 30 seconds of searching. Photo courtesy of The Program 101.

Blazers: 8-5 (3rd Northwest Division)

Hawks: 10-4 (2nd Southeast Division)

Game Details: Phillips Arena, Atlanta, GA. 5:00 PM. TV: CSNW, ESPN Radio: 750 AM (KXTG)

Projected Portland Starting Lineup: PG Raymond Felton (#5, 6’1”, North Carolina), SG Wesley Matthews (#2, 6’5″, Marquette), SF Gerald Wallace (#3, 6’7″, Alabama), PF LaMarcus Aldridge (#12, 6’11″, Texas), C Kurt Thomas (#40, 6’9″, Texas Christian)

Projected Atlanta Starting Lineup: PG Jeff Teague (#0, 6’2”, Wake Forest), SG Joe Johnson (#2, 6’7”, Arkansas), SF Marvin Williams (#24, 6’9”, North Carolina), PF Josh Smith (#5, 6’9”, Oak Hill Academy, Mouth of Wilson, VA), C Jason Collins (#34, 7′, Stanford)

We’ve passed the halfway point in this first extended road trip (just a note, between the seventh and the 18 of March, Portland is on the road for seven games–six tough ones and one in Washington–but after that their longest road trip is only three games, and consists of the final three games of the season); 1-2 isn’t a great record, but it still leaves Portland with a chance to finish the trip with a winning record.

To finish 4-2 the Blazers have to win out. Following Wednesday’s match-up with Atlanta, Portland plays a back-to-back in Toronto and Detroit. The Raptors and the Pistons have a combined seven wins. I’m not in the business of penciling in wins with the way this team has played on the road, but we are all allowed to panic should the Blazers lose to either of those teams. Which means, should Portland want to finish at least 3-3, they need to beat the Hawks.

It won’t be easy. Atlanta has won three in a row (albeit against three sub .500 teams), and has already posted wins in 2011-12 against Chicago and Miami; not to mention, Portland hasn’t beaten the Hawks since early 2009. There are some definite weaknesses with this Atlanta team, though, and luckily they just happen to play mostly to Portland’s strength.

First, Al Horford is out with a torn pectoral muscle. He recently had surgery, but he’s expected to miss three to four months. Horford is probably Atlanta’s most complete player. He’s a strong rebounder, a consistent scorer, and a better than average man-to-man defender. Losing Horford means that Atlanta has to rely more heavily on Marvin Williams and Josh Smith to play interior defense. Smith likes to defend from the weak-side so he can get highlight, Nicolas Batum-esque, blocks; nobody has ever accused Marvin Williams of playing defense. Also, Atlanta has to play more minutes with Jason Collins in the lineup. Collins is basically a non-factor. In his one start this season he played 13 minutes and missed his only attempted shot.

Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, and Jason Collins should have their hands full with LaMarcus Aldridge. After that Atlanta has Zaza Pachulia and Ivan Johnson to throw at him. I don’t know much about Johnson, beyond that he looks a little bit like Mr. T and spent some time at the University of Oregon, but Pachulia is known to be a thorn in LA’s side. LaMarcus has to learn to play against big guys that body him up. Going from Samuel Dalembert in Houston, to Emeka Okafor in New Orleans should prepare him for whatever ATL can bring. If LaMarcus has a big game, the Blazers should have a shot.

Another weakness of Atlanta’s that can be exploited by Portland is their tendency to play a lot of isolation. Joe Johnson is a classic iso player, Josh Smith wants to be Joe Johnson and isn’t, and Jeff Teague is steadily developing into a scoring point guard. The Blazers have been very effective in man-up coverage so far this season, and equally as ineffective in defensive rotations.

Two games as examples: Against Orlando, Portland was slow to close out on shooters, had poor help-side rotations, and generally let the Magic get open looks when the ball switched sides of the key. The result was an outstanding shooting night and a Blazer loss. Against Sacramento, a “team” made up of guys that think they’re playing one-on-one, Portland tightened up their man defense in the second half, limited Sac’s shooters to long contested jump shots, and held the ice cold Kings to 33 points in the final 24 minutes.

Atlanta is much better than Sacramento, but they don’t have a player like Dwight Howard, a guy that requires help from the wings every time he touches the ball. Joe Johnson can knock down shots, Jeff Teague can score, Willie Green off the bench has his moments. But they shouldn’t be getting as many open looks as Portland gave up to the Magic.

Finally, Atlanta isn’t as deep as Portland. Although depth has yet to be a major boon for the Blazers, there is still something to be said for being able to go nine deep, especially at the front court positions. With Horford out, Portland can attack the basket inside all night long. Craig Smith is starting to find an offensive groove, Kurt Thomas is a reliable scorer, these guys should be able to take advantage of the fact that the Hawks’ third forward off the bench is Tracy McGrady.

The Hawks are also without Kirk Hinrich, meaning Teague is carrying a lot of weight with running the offense. If Raymond Felton can get his offensive game going, making Teague use some energy on defense or better yet get into foul trouble, Portland’s guards should have a big advantage.

All told, there are plenty of reasons to think that the Blazers should be able to beat Atlanta in Atlanta, something they did for the last time in 2008. But I can also come up with one big reason why another road loss won’t come as a surprise. Portland hasn’t been able to get it together on the road. They haven’t been able to establish their game, they’ve struggled to limit their mistakes, and they’ve been basically unable to make their opponents pay for their mistakes. At this point I feel like to win on the road, the Blazers have to string together an almost perfect 48 minutes. They have yet to do that this season, but that doesn’t mean it’s not possible.

Here’s a few things to pay attention to:

• Jamal Crawford: This will be Jamal’s first trip back to Atlanta, where he spent the 2009-10 and 2010-11 seasons and won the Sixth Man of the Year Award for 09-10. Jamal has played for five teams in 11 seasons, so it’s not as if this is going to be his first homecoming. I do think, though, he’ll have an extra incentive to go big against his old teammates. Also, Crawford had some pretty great games against the Blazers while in a Hawks jersey. In four games Jamal averaged 19 points, putting up 27 in Atlanta’s 97-91 win back on November 3rd 2009. So even if Crawford doesn’t have a big game, one of Atlanta’s strongest offensive weapons is now playing for their opponent.
• Will Portland play to the level of their competition: I mentioned in my New Orleans recap that Portland has been labeled as a team that plays differently depending on their opponent. Atlanta is a good team, a bona fide Playoff team in either conference. If the Blazers play the same way they did against the Hornets, they’re in trouble. If they play up to Atlanta’s level, they can definitely come away with this win. Playing up to an opponent’s level isn’t good, it’s better than playing down of course, but it’s still better for Portland to try a figure out a way to play their game, regardless of who their opponent may be. But if playing up means a win, I’ll take it.
• What the guys on ESPN have to say: I’ll be watching ESPN’s feed of this game, mostly because I can handle the “sky is falling” attitude of Mike and Mike when this start go wrong for the Blazers. One thing everybody who chooses ESPN should pay attention to is what the national game callers have to say about the Blazers. Two weeks in, Portland was the popular favorite to take the Western Conference. They’ve fallen to earth a bit, and at this point, top four seems like the high end of the realistic expectations spectrum. My guess is, if we get a guy like Hubie Brown, there won’t be too much talk about the Blazers being the best team in west–Oklahoma City is right now 12-2 and are playing like they could finish the season without another loss–and hopefully there also won’t be too many accusations of Portland being unable to live up to the early hype.

email me: mike.acker1@gmail.com

Twitter: @mikeacker | @ripcityproject

A lot of things went well, a lot of things didn’t. Unfortunately, the former applied mostly to the first half, the latter to the second half and overtime. The most obvious reason for that separation is that Portland was on the last-game of a five-game trip, their fifth game in a week. That’s also the likely reason Nate McMillan went to the zone defense for so much of the game, to save the legs a little bit. Unfortunately that led to plenty of box-out confusion and Atlanta’s 47-37 advantage on the glass, 15-8 on the offensive boards. The Blazers are, and remain, one of the best rebounding teams in the league, so it’s a bit of a fluke problem and not one to worry about, but it’s also a main reason for the loss. Lots of credit due Josh Smith and Al Horford for their work inside.

I’ve always felt that Josh Smith, big contract and all, was the primary factor holding the Atlanta Hawks back, and he is now the driving force behind their fast start. Joe Johnson hit a lot of big — well defended — shots and had 35 points, but he also did it on 31 shots, and it was Smith doing work in the paint, providing help-side defense, rebounding, drawing fouls, basically doing everything other than taking awful jumpers. He also benefited from the Blazers going away from Aldridge during some key stretches, yet that doesn’t change the fact that the Hawks almost definitely lose without him. Good for basketball that such a huge talent is piecing things together, let’s just hope he’s doing it in February.

Back to the Blazers. The first half, especially the first six minutes, were as good an offensive show as they’ve put on all season. The Hawks were blitzing the offensive boards — which also aided their comeback — and the Blazers were taking advantage of the recovering defense. Everyone was running, Steve Blake through some nice lobs and Portland had great success working through Oden and Aldridge in the post. They look like a championship-caliber team when things are going as well as they did. When the Hawks clamped down on their rotations, however, they looked like a team just trying to hold on to a lead rather than one trying to extend the lead.

Again, my concerns came from the painted area. Just as during the Charlotte game, the Blazers drifted to the perimeter. From 4:14 in the 3rd to 9:44 in the 4th, eight of Portland’s nine shots were jumpers — although one was more of an awkward spiraling pigtail from Webster — with one trip to the line from Bayless, and the lead went from 11-5.

Then after Juwan Howard’s unexpected-yet-awesome dunk in traffic at 8:22 in the 4th — when Portland was again up 10 — nine of their next 13 shots were jumpers, with just two trips to the line sprinkled in. Much of that is due to tired legs and very good Atlanta defense, but you aren’t going to put away many good teams on the road with those kinds of ratios. At the very least, you must get to the free-throw line.

Atlanta won points in the paint, 56-36. Nuff said.

At times, McMillan did seem to be trying to re-establish the post with Oden and Aldridge, but the Blazers kept getting away from it. Coupled with Atlanta getting itself extra possessions — 91 shots taken to 80 — and some big shots from JJ, they weren’t able to hang on. This was the first truly competitive game in over a week for Portland, so it’s easy to be overly critical, but it just so happens that it became the type of physical contest that tests the Blazers better than any other. The next big step for them for them is to control those games more often than they are controlled by them. But, they’ll have plenty more chances to do so, and they will not always come at the end of long road trips.

Individual Notes:

I asked some folks on Twitter whether I’ve been too hard on Rudy Fernandez, and most of them said I am. I’ll give him a week without Travis or so before really digging in to analysis, but this is what I’m seeing from him. I’m seeing a guy who is inefficient with the plays run for him, moving and dribbling horizontally when he should be attacking and creating. I also see an incredible shotmaker, a guy who can hit anything off the catch and is reliable at the end of games for big hits. I saw him play rock solid defense in the first half, and then I saw him disappear in the second half when plays weren’t run directly for him. I never imagined Rudy as someone who would need plays run for him to be effective, just someone who could create with touches in an offense. Maybe he does need more plays, maybe he needs to be involved in more pick-and-rolls, but considering the things we’ve seen with Portland giving up leads by giving up the paint, he’s probably not inspiring Nate to change things up. We will definitely be revisiting this topic soon.

Brandon Roy paced himself for the finish, and when it came time to take over he didn’t quite have enough. By the time he started going one-on-one, you could tell that either he was taking the lead or Portland was probably losing. Chances are good Roy will come through in those situations, so you can’t have a problem with it, and had it not been the end of a trip he probably would have been more assertive during ATL’s two main runs. That said, with Travis out, Roy needs another perimeter player to help create shots, not just take them. Blake did it early on. Nobody did when things got tough.

I have a feeling I’m going to be combining Blake and Miller for as long as this lineup lasts. Together, they were one well-rounded, poor shooting point guard that did pretty much nothing to contribute on defense once the zone was chipped away and then busted. Against the Hawks, the two-point lineup doesn’t make much sense, although…

It’s hard to change things up when Martell Webster is playing like it’s 2007. Webster looks likes he’s really pressing right now, running the floor with abandon but unsure of where exactly he’s going. He’s still attacking, but once he gets by his man he doesn’t seem to know what to do with it. I’m sure Nate would love to have a big, athletic small forward to play against guys like Joe Johnson, which says a ton about how little Martell is playing (11 minutes).

Greg Oden didn’t dominate the paint tonight, having as much trouble as anyone keeping track of Josh Smith on the glass. He was more rushed in the post than we’ve seen lately, but still scored on many of his touches. Either fatigue or intelligence kept him out of foul trouble, which was good, but part of his rebounding problem is that he kept going for big blocks when Smith and Horford would just step behind him for good rebounding position. As the game changed, Oden didn’t.

LaMarcus Aldridge began the game rebounding with authority, but got pushed around a little as the game wore on. He probably deserved more touches than he received, but like Rudy, you couldn’t always tell he was on the court. Not his best night.

Juwan Howard dunked and got fouled on a fast break. Read that sentence twice and then try to think of the last time you saw or heard of him doing that.

When Jerryd Bayless came in at the end of the third, I thought he would give Portland a needed shot in the arm. He didn’t, and only played two minutes.

Detroit might be tough on Wednesday, but the Blazers don’t have many physical tests like this one coming up. Chicago or Utah might provide that, but games like tonight’s are the ones you should scrutinize the most because they will tell you just how far the Blazers have come and just how far they have to go. Since the cards were stacked against Portland tonight, it’s not the best example, but when mid-season comes and we are all comparing the Blazers to the rest of the league, it will be important to remember how much they got pushed around on the road and how much they pushed back. Rather, how much of close road games they control, regardless of wins or losses. Because had they won tonight, they would have escaped rather than conquered.