Portland’s head coach Terry Stotts says his team is competing. They’re still not winning and are now 2-5. Credit: Craig Mitchelldyer-US PRESSWIRE

If this were 2000 or 2001 and Blazers’ head coach Terry Stotts kept a LiveJournal, his entry for November 12th, which he would type up on Portland’s short flight to Sacramento following their most recent loss at the Rose Garden this time to the Atlanta Hawks, would begin with his current mood as frustrated tilting perilously close to angry and his current music as “This Year,” from The Mountain Goats seminal angry indie rock opus The Sunset Tree (I know that record came out in 2005 but this is an imaginary scenario, so deal with it).

Stotts would have to write his entry in Word and then transfer it to LJ once the team plane landed. The lack of airborne Internet (this is the early aughts remember) would give coach time to reflect, probably also a chance to remove some of his more choice obscenities, and by the time the thing went live, probably at least some of that anger would have subsided.

Blazer fans, I beseech you, take the same approach as my fictionally rendered coach Stotts and his made-up post for an also-ran social media platform. Be upset right now, in the direct aftermath of yet another almost but not quite loss at home, that Portland can’t seem to play defense for more than half of a half, and that not a single guy outside of the Blazers’ starting five can actually score, and that it really seems like one or two fewer foul calls, or turnovers, or missed free throws, or surrendered offensive rebounds and the Blazers would be 3-0 on this first extended home stand and not 0-3 and tied for last in the Western Conference.

Be upset that the Blazers came out flat on Monday, turned the ball over a million times, and let the Atlanta Hawks score all of the game’s first nine points. This was the worst we’ve seen Portland play all season. Or at least this is worst we’ve seen the Blazers play at home this season, they also played pretty poorly in their actual blowout loss to Dallas.

Anger and frustration are the natural reactions when a team goes through the kind of stretch these Blazers seem to be right in the middle of. But once you get your anger and frustration out of the way, take that next step, and get over it.

Guys, and gals, let’s be honest. This is not a good team. It’s not a bad team, not really, but it’s not a good team. Teams that aren’t good go through this kind of thing. They lose. They turn the ball over. They step out of bounds at critical times. They give up back breaking dunks. They do all the things Portland has done to lose these last three games.

We should get over being angry about it for two reasons. First because losses are basically double good right now. The old sports axiom is true, team’s learn more from losing than they do from winning, and if Portland continues to stay this course and doesn’t do anything internally or externally to get better we’ll be right back in the Lottery and bringing home that crucial third draft addition. Like I said, double good.

But we should also get over our anger and our frustration because this team is not going to give up. For better or for worse, they’re going to play hard. Call it what you want. In his post game presser, in which he did not mention LiveJournal even a single time, coach Stotts called it competing. Although it’s sort of redundant and meaningless to say his team is competing (they are literally competing by default just by stepping on the court) it has a much nicer ring to it and doesn’t smack quite so much of desperation as saying his team is trying. But that’s exactly what they are doing, they are trying. They’re just not winning.

Here’s a good example of what Stotts means. With basically no time left on the clock and the game decided, Nicolas Batum made a hard drive down the lane to try and score on a lay-up. Even though he was completely unguarded, since Atlanta was up eight and there was only seconds left on the clock, Nic missed at the rim. He failed to score, but he didn’t fail to try. Nic could have very easily stood at the top of the circle and dribbled out the clock, as Jeff Teague did when he corralled Nic’s miss, but he chose not to. In a losing effort, without much else to hang your hat on, you have to at least applaud the effort.

I’ve been saying it for a few games now, and with each passing day it’s becoming more and more clear: this season is about beginning a long-term project to regain relevancy. Monday night the Blazers announced that their highly prized and praised sell-out streak was coming to an end. It was a symbolic move; as somebody in the Blazersedge comment section called it, Management 101.

My guess is that the decision to officially end the sell-out streak, something that could have easily been done last year when fans stopped showing up to watch the Luke Babbitt, Jonny Flynn, Hasheem Thabeet, and Nolan Smith show, has a lot to do with getting out in front of dropping attendance should it happen and even more to do with establishing this organization as an almost wholly new entity.

The Blazers want to compete in the long-term. That means bringing on a coach who is a big picture thinker and a General Manager who can build for the future. It also means having a management team that can take the long-view and predict the future storms so they’re ready for them when the rear their ugly heads. This is the narrative of Portland’s season.

It will take place on the court as Terry Stotts runs his starting five ragged so that by this time next month they’ll know each others games so well Damian Lillard will be swinging passes to Wesley Matthews in the corner for open threes with his eyes closed. It will take place in gyms around the country as Neil Olshey and his team of scouts try and figure out which blue chipper fits best with the roster. And it’s clearly happening in the front office as Chris McGowan and his folks begin paving the way for what will very likely be a heavy resurgence ad campaign.

It will take time. Portland’s going to have to find some combination of players who can contribute off the bench. They’re going to have to find a better way to meld the offensive talents in the starting five (sorry tankers but I’d put the odds at Olshey trading LaMarcus or Wesley for draft picks and cap space slightly above 0%). And the Blazers are going to have to actually win a couple of close games or else they are going to be playing their home games in an empty gym. Those things will come, though.

I’d be willing to bet that there will come a day when our 2000 or 01, LiveJournaling coach Terry Stotts writes a post that starts current mood: euphoric current music: Queen “We Are The Champions.”

Too much? How about current mood: satisfied current music: Tom Petty “Even The Losers.”

Portland takes on the only team in the Western Conference that doesn’t have a better record than they do Tuesday night in Sacramento.

Couple of quick things:

• Terry Stotts said in his post game remarks that Meyers Leonard has the green light to shoot short jumpers and he would like to see him be less hesitant in taking open looks when they come around. I agree. Although Meyers shouldn’t be taking a bunch of jump shots, he shouldn’t be afraid to shoot. He’s a decent shooter, and he’s not going to get any better without practicing his shot at game speed.
• Same goes for Joel Freeland. Joel got some minutes Monday (11 and a half of them if you’re keeping track at home). He was scoreless, but he did take five shots. When he’s open, he has to take them. They’ll start falling.
• Portland held the Hawks to less than 100 points and to below 50% shooting from the field, both firsts on the season. It’s a start. That being said, a significant factor in Atlanta’s shoot had nothing to do with Portland’s defense. Josh Smith shot 9-of-22. For a stretch in the second half he looked like he wasn’t even trying to hit the rim. For further reading on Josh Smith, and why he’s such an interesting player to watch and puzzle over, I direct you to FreeDarko’s absolutely paradigm shifting work The Macrophenomenal Pro Basketball Almanac.

Box Score

Standings

Soaring Down South

@mikeacker | @ripcityproject | mike.acker1@gmail.com

November 11, 2012; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Atlanta Hawks power forward Ivan Johnson (44) blocks a shot by Los Angeles Clippers point guard Eric Bledsoe (12) in the second half at the Staples Center. Clippers won 89-76. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-US PRESSWIRE

 

Hey @teamlou23 are you and Josh Smith playing tonight?If not then I’m betting Portland. Dm me before the line changes.

— Hannibal Buress (@hannibalburess) November 12, 2012

The above tweet is apropos of nothing, unless you think the fact that Hannibal Buress is absolutely hilarious and will be in Portland later this month (November the 26th to be exact) playing a show with local hilarious dude Ian Karmel in some way pertains to Monday night’s match-up between the Blazers and the Hawks at the Rose Garden.

Atlanta comes to town on the second night of a back-to-back, having played and lost in Los Angeles to the Clippers on Sunday night. The Hawks are also the losers of their last two games, and as far as I can tell having not spent any time actually watching Atlanta they seem to be struggling just a little bit following the departure of Joe Johnson.

Portland, who I have seen play just a little bit in 2012-13, are also struggling, and very much like the Hawks are in need of win right about now. The Blazers have always played better at home, but have started this most recent season 1-2 in the Rose Garden. Not just does Portland needs to stop a three-game skid, they need to prove that they can carry strong home showings (which they’ve had in all three home games) through to meaningful home victories. The leash is long with this team considering its relative young age, the atrocity that was last season, and the inspired play of the starting unit, but a win-less home stand is not how a team of any age or prospective end of the year positioning wants to start a long and trying season.

Blazers Starting 5: PG Damian Lillard, SG Wesley Matthews, SF Nicolas Batum, PF LaMarcus Aldridge, C J.J. Hickson

Hawks Starting 5: PG Jeff Teague, SG Kyle Korver, SF Josh Smith, PF Al Horford, C Zaza Pachulia

Take a look at those starting lineups. It’s hard to look at scenario in which Portland is outmatched at any position. Al Horford is a strong power forward, one of the best in the league, but he is going to get stretched out on defense against LaMarcus Aldridge and his offensive strengths can be neutralized pretty effectively by LA’s length. Jeff Teague/Kyle Korver are no Lillard/Matthews even if Matthews can’t match the gunner from Creighton (a nickname that for some unfathomable reason has yet to catch on) shot for shot. I’ll take Nicolas Batum over Josh Smith especially if Smith decides to jog up and down the court and shoot ill-advised jumpers. Pachulia versus J.J. is something of a push, but if J.J. is wanting to bang down low, as his recent tweets may suggest, there’s nobody better than the Georgian bruiser (another nickname not gaining any leverage for who knows what reason) to get that started against.

So, this game will come down, as the last game did and as every game will for some time, to the bench. Atlanta’s bench looks like this: Devin Harris (former All-Star), Lou Williams (noted Blazer killer), Ivan Johnson (anger management issue sufferer), and Anthony Tolliver (former Portland Trail Blazer 10-day contract earner). Blazer fans would take any single one of those players coming off Portland’s bench right about now.

What to Watch For

• Can somebody step up? I don’t care who it is. Sean Highkin at Portland Roundball Society brought up a good point about Portland’s bench problem having more to do with personnel than with how bench player numbers are the anchor dragging this team to the bottom of the figurative NBA sea. Head coach Terry Stotts can not be blamed by switching up who plays how much and when considering that it probably can’t get worse than Saturday night. In case you live under a rock, Portland’s bench scored four points compared with 63 points against San Antonio’s bench.
• Meyers Leonard. Atlanta is a lot like Portland in that they are basically playing without a center. Pachulia is 6’11”. Ivan Johnson is 6’8”. Meyers Leonard is 7’1”. He can play big. He can finish around the rim, especially when he is being guarded by a guy who gives up a couple of inches. Meyers had his best game against the Clippers, and although he accounted for 50% of Portland’s bench scoring against the Spurs, I would say Saturday was his worst showing. His defense was suspect. He shot two very bad jumpers in the middle of the second half run that killed Portland’s lead and helped San Antonio basically steal a win. I like Meyers as a player. I think he can be an x-factor for the Blazers once he figures it all out. Monday night he’ll be the only real big man on the floor. He needs to realize that and take advantage of it.
• Will Portland play with a sense of urgency? Six games into an 82-game season is not time to panic for a team without much in the way of expectations. But like I said earlier, this team needs to play like winning matters and they need to win to keep the fan base engaged. The home crowd is going to be thirsting for only Portland’s second home win. The sooner they get it the better, because if that win doesn’t come until later this week or at worst next week or next month there isn’t going to be anybody around to see it. Rebuilding is no fun. At some point Portlanders are going to find some other way to spend their free time and disposable income.

In case you didn’t believe me, Hannibal Burres is in fact very very funny.

@mikeacker | @ripcityproject | mike.acker1@gmail.com

Easily the best picture of Joe Johnson I could find in 30 seconds of searching. Photo courtesy of The Program 101.

Blazers: 8-5 (3rd Northwest Division)

Hawks: 10-4 (2nd Southeast Division)

Game Details: Phillips Arena, Atlanta, GA. 5:00 PM. TV: CSNW, ESPN Radio: 750 AM (KXTG)

Projected Portland Starting Lineup: PG Raymond Felton (#5, 6’1”, North Carolina), SG Wesley Matthews (#2, 6’5″, Marquette), SF Gerald Wallace (#3, 6’7″, Alabama), PF LaMarcus Aldridge (#12, 6’11″, Texas), C Kurt Thomas (#40, 6’9″, Texas Christian)

Projected Atlanta Starting Lineup: PG Jeff Teague (#0, 6’2”, Wake Forest), SG Joe Johnson (#2, 6’7”, Arkansas), SF Marvin Williams (#24, 6’9”, North Carolina), PF Josh Smith (#5, 6’9”, Oak Hill Academy, Mouth of Wilson, VA), C Jason Collins (#34, 7′, Stanford)

We’ve passed the halfway point in this first extended road trip (just a note, between the seventh and the 18 of March, Portland is on the road for seven games–six tough ones and one in Washington–but after that their longest road trip is only three games, and consists of the final three games of the season); 1-2 isn’t a great record, but it still leaves Portland with a chance to finish the trip with a winning record.

To finish 4-2 the Blazers have to win out. Following Wednesday’s match-up with Atlanta, Portland plays a back-to-back in Toronto and Detroit. The Raptors and the Pistons have a combined seven wins. I’m not in the business of penciling in wins with the way this team has played on the road, but we are all allowed to panic should the Blazers lose to either of those teams. Which means, should Portland want to finish at least 3-3, they need to beat the Hawks.

It won’t be easy. Atlanta has won three in a row (albeit against three sub .500 teams), and has already posted wins in 2011-12 against Chicago and Miami; not to mention, Portland hasn’t beaten the Hawks since early 2009. There are some definite weaknesses with this Atlanta team, though, and luckily they just happen to play mostly to Portland’s strength.

First, Al Horford is out with a torn pectoral muscle. He recently had surgery, but he’s expected to miss three to four months. Horford is probably Atlanta’s most complete player. He’s a strong rebounder, a consistent scorer, and a better than average man-to-man defender. Losing Horford means that Atlanta has to rely more heavily on Marvin Williams and Josh Smith to play interior defense. Smith likes to defend from the weak-side so he can get highlight, Nicolas Batum-esque, blocks; nobody has ever accused Marvin Williams of playing defense. Also, Atlanta has to play more minutes with Jason Collins in the lineup. Collins is basically a non-factor. In his one start this season he played 13 minutes and missed his only attempted shot.

Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, and Jason Collins should have their hands full with LaMarcus Aldridge. After that Atlanta has Zaza Pachulia and Ivan Johnson to throw at him. I don’t know much about Johnson, beyond that he looks a little bit like Mr. T and spent some time at the University of Oregon, but Pachulia is known to be a thorn in LA’s side. LaMarcus has to learn to play against big guys that body him up. Going from Samuel Dalembert in Houston, to Emeka Okafor in New Orleans should prepare him for whatever ATL can bring. If LaMarcus has a big game, the Blazers should have a shot.

Another weakness of Atlanta’s that can be exploited by Portland is their tendency to play a lot of isolation. Joe Johnson is a classic iso player, Josh Smith wants to be Joe Johnson and isn’t, and Jeff Teague is steadily developing into a scoring point guard. The Blazers have been very effective in man-up coverage so far this season, and equally as ineffective in defensive rotations.

Two games as examples: Against Orlando, Portland was slow to close out on shooters, had poor help-side rotations, and generally let the Magic get open looks when the ball switched sides of the key. The result was an outstanding shooting night and a Blazer loss. Against Sacramento, a “team” made up of guys that think they’re playing one-on-one, Portland tightened up their man defense in the second half, limited Sac’s shooters to long contested jump shots, and held the ice cold Kings to 33 points in the final 24 minutes.

Atlanta is much better than Sacramento, but they don’t have a player like Dwight Howard, a guy that requires help from the wings every time he touches the ball. Joe Johnson can knock down shots, Jeff Teague can score, Willie Green off the bench has his moments. But they shouldn’t be getting as many open looks as Portland gave up to the Magic.

Finally, Atlanta isn’t as deep as Portland. Although depth has yet to be a major boon for the Blazers, there is still something to be said for being able to go nine deep, especially at the front court positions. With Horford out, Portland can attack the basket inside all night long. Craig Smith is starting to find an offensive groove, Kurt Thomas is a reliable scorer, these guys should be able to take advantage of the fact that the Hawks’ third forward off the bench is Tracy McGrady.

The Hawks are also without Kirk Hinrich, meaning Teague is carrying a lot of weight with running the offense. If Raymond Felton can get his offensive game going, making Teague use some energy on defense or better yet get into foul trouble, Portland’s guards should have a big advantage.

All told, there are plenty of reasons to think that the Blazers should be able to beat Atlanta in Atlanta, something they did for the last time in 2008. But I can also come up with one big reason why another road loss won’t come as a surprise. Portland hasn’t been able to get it together on the road. They haven’t been able to establish their game, they’ve struggled to limit their mistakes, and they’ve been basically unable to make their opponents pay for their mistakes. At this point I feel like to win on the road, the Blazers have to string together an almost perfect 48 minutes. They have yet to do that this season, but that doesn’t mean it’s not possible.

Here’s a few things to pay attention to:

• Jamal Crawford: This will be Jamal’s first trip back to Atlanta, where he spent the 2009-10 and 2010-11 seasons and won the Sixth Man of the Year Award for 09-10. Jamal has played for five teams in 11 seasons, so it’s not as if this is going to be his first homecoming. I do think, though, he’ll have an extra incentive to go big against his old teammates. Also, Crawford had some pretty great games against the Blazers while in a Hawks jersey. In four games Jamal averaged 19 points, putting up 27 in Atlanta’s 97-91 win back on November 3rd 2009. So even if Crawford doesn’t have a big game, one of Atlanta’s strongest offensive weapons is now playing for their opponent.
• Will Portland play to the level of their competition: I mentioned in my New Orleans recap that Portland has been labeled as a team that plays differently depending on their opponent. Atlanta is a good team, a bona fide Playoff team in either conference. If the Blazers play the same way they did against the Hornets, they’re in trouble. If they play up to Atlanta’s level, they can definitely come away with this win. Playing up to an opponent’s level isn’t good, it’s better than playing down of course, but it’s still better for Portland to try a figure out a way to play their game, regardless of who their opponent may be. But if playing up means a win, I’ll take it.
• What the guys on ESPN have to say: I’ll be watching ESPN’s feed of this game, mostly because I can handle the “sky is falling” attitude of Mike and Mike when this start go wrong for the Blazers. One thing everybody who chooses ESPN should pay attention to is what the national game callers have to say about the Blazers. Two weeks in, Portland was the popular favorite to take the Western Conference. They’ve fallen to earth a bit, and at this point, top four seems like the high end of the realistic expectations spectrum. My guess is, if we get a guy like Hubie Brown, there won’t be too much talk about the Blazers being the best team in west–Oklahoma City is right now 12-2 and are playing like they could finish the season without another loss–and hopefully there also won’t be too many accusations of Portland being unable to live up to the early hype.

email me: mike.acker1@gmail.com

Twitter: @mikeacker | @ripcityproject