This is it. This is the game where it’s all the line. This is the one for all the marbles. This is the Game That Will Decide Our Fate. This is the Rumble to Avoid a Tumble. This is…for sixth place. I know that start was a little facetious and a bit douchy but I’m not getting too wrapped up in the drama of this one. Yes, obviously this game is a big one you don’t need me to tell you that. Two teams, deadlocked at 49-31, battling for playoff position in the second to last game of the season. The winner of this game will have the tiebreaker over the other and thus a major golden ticket for the #6 seed. However, considering the wild, unpredictable mess known as the 2-5 seeds in the Western Conference, I struggle to get too wrapped up in this one. Nobody knows what the #6 seed means right now. Nobody. It would be nice to finish strong and pick up a big win, but putting so much value into the standings will cause you a headache. Maybe it’s because yesterday’s game (and Coup) have convinced me that a ‘fall’ to 8 and a series with the Lakers may not be such a bad thing after all.  If #6 means a face-off with the Jazz, I want the Blazers to lose this game by 30.

(That’s one of those jokes where you giggle a little afterward so everyone knows you’re joking but on the inside you’re dead serious)

The Thunder and Blazers are not strangers to one another. You know how and why these teams are linked right now. You also know their personnel. Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Jeff Green with a little bit of James Harden’s Rick Ross beard and some Nick Collison on the side. The key to the game, obviously, is containing Kevin Durant. What more can you say about his season? In his past 5 games, he’s averaging 38.6 points, 9.2 rebounds, 3.4 assists, shooting 47.5% from the field with 13.2 free throw attempts. Or as like to call them….video game numbers. They have only one 2 of those 5 games, but who cares, that is a dangerous man right there. The key to this is rendering Durant inefficient, something Portland has done a pretty good job of doing this year. On the season Durant has averaged 30 points on 20 field goal attempts a game. Against Portland he’s averaging 26 points on 21 field goal attempts a game. He’s also shooting 34% against the Blazers, but there is a major outlier that is skewing the data, a 3/20 performance in November. Portland has to contest his jumpers, play good help defense and make him earn everything. They also have to make sure he does not get any help. In the Blazers 92-87 victory in OKC in late March, Jeff Green and Russell Westbrook both struggled to be efficient. There will need to be a repeat in that area.

The big story is Brandon Roy being out with a knee bruise. That just increases everyone’s responsibility to put the ball in the basket. Obviously Andre Miller and LaMarcus Aldridge are going to have to do some heavy lifting. Westbrook will want revenge on Miller for the last contest, or as I like to call it “Andre Miller taking Russell Westbrook to school” only because by the end of the game Westbrook had that same look on his face that kids have when they try and fake like their sick and their parents take them to school anyways. I applaud Nate and Andre and the rest of the team for getting LaMarcus the ball. Without Roy yesterday, the ball was going into LMA in the post. It was like watching the LaMarcus we all thought he could be…except he was actually doing it. With Jeff Green I’d like to see more low-post action than mid-post action, because Green has the length and athleticism to force LaMarcus into some tough jumpshots. As always, we will be as good as Rudy, Martell and Jerryd are. Yesterday their play was the story of the game. Each guy had a key moment in a low scoring game, hitting big shots that had they missed, we’re probably talking about a tough loss yesterday. Their value is incredible especially with #7 on the sidelines. The one thing I noticed from the Laker game was they played with more confidence, aggression and swagger than before. Perhaps it was knowing they had to go out and do it, because a player’s mindset is different when they have no other choice but to perform because they aren’t coming out. I’ll definitely be monitoring them.

Look for this one to be another playoff-type game and atmosphere. And all signs are pointing to another grind it out, 48 minute slugfest. The Blazers have got to keep finding ways to execute in these types of games. Yesterday, for the most part they did. Against Dallas they didn’t. A couple weeks ago against OKC they did. No need to panic, just play. The POR/OKC season series has been anything but pretty, look at the scores for the 3 previous games: 83-74, 77-89, 92-87. We’ve held OKC to under 90 each game which is impressive considering their talent level. If you’re a Blazer fan you would like the trend to continue: Oklahoma City is a mere 3-9 when they score less than 90 points. The big story of late has been Portland’s improved defense thanks to Marcus Camby. There will be a need for a lot of talk and help on Mr. Durant, we’ll see how it holds up.

You know the score and you know what’s on the line. Portland is coming off an emotionally high win yesterday over the Lakers. OKC is coming off a emotionally hurtful loss against the Warriors. As corny and cliche as it sounds, this game is coming down to who wants it more. OKC will be looking to bounce back and I’d expect them to come out hard and determined out of the gates. Let’s not forget this same OKC team jumped on Portland 14-2 back in February…the game after a tough loss to the Lakers. Portland needs the energy, focus and determination of a playoff team if they want to win this one. And you know…GET THAT SIX SEED! Or 50 wins, whatever is your flavor.

Unfortunately it is true, and the reality of the situation is that theThunder are for real a lot faster than anyone expected. They along with Memphis have turned into some of the best stories of this season. The Thunder may actually be one of the most entertaining teams in the league, on and off the court. If you have League Pass you know Oklahoma City ends up being one of your teams to watch subconsciously. They are a young team that just goes out and plays their butts off and has fun while doing it, how can you not like them? Also, they have a unique chemistry that I have not seen in the NBA in ages. Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, Russell Westbrook and James Harden are like the new 4 Horsemen on twitter, it’s unreal. Back to ‘on-the-corut’ talk they come into tonight’s contest having won 5 games in a row. I’m so used to cracking jokes during a Thunder preview that I almost did not know what to do with myself.

The leader of the pack? Durant. It’s rare I just let statistics do the talking, but in Durant’s case…I feel compelled to do it. He’s having an MVP-type season, bar none and if you disagree you have the basketball IQ of Gerald Green. Durant has scored 25 points in 24 straight games, three off Allen Iverson’s record 27. He’s averaging 29.7 points on the season, 7.3 rebounds, 3 assists and shoots 48.5% from the field…and that’s averaging 20 field goal attempts a game. Over the last 5 games he’s averaging 33.4 points, 7.4 rebounds, 50% from three, 94% from the free throw line (51-54). For the entire month of January, KD averaged 32 points a game, 8 rebounds, shot 51% from the field, 53% from three and almost 90% from the line. For a whole month. Pick your jaw up now.

(He’s also demolished the Durant vs. Oden argument for the time being. I’m serious, all I’ve got to debate is ‘We needed a big man’, ‘He got a lot better this year’ and whatever else I think of. I’ll always argue for Oden but holy crap when Durant is putting up those numbers and the only thing people have talked about Oden for this month is his dong…it becomes difficult to say much)

Right behind Durant is Russell Westbrook, who just happens to average 16 points, 7.5 assists, 5 rebounds and 1.2 steals a game. He almost had a quaduple-double the other night in case anyone was wondering. Jeff Green can consistently do a little bit of everything and is growing into the perfect sidekick for Durant. James Harden has the kind of versatility that fits right into this team as he just plays team ball and does a little bit of everything. He can score, he can shoot, he can create for others. Sensing a theme here with their top players? Surrounding them are role players. Thabo Sefolosha plays D, Collison/Krstic rebound and Kevin Ollie steals money. Zing.

The challenge for the Blazers is going to come on the defensive end. The Thunder don’t have the kind of front line that the Jazz and Lakers have so the danger is not getting punished like they did in those games. (Especially against LA…out-rebound 47-30…Lamar Odom had 8 less rebounds than our entire team.) The danger is on the perimeter, as they have a ton of skilled perimeter players. Not just trying to defend these guys one on one, but also the rotations behind them will be key. Obviously, Durant is going to cause problems. I think Batum is our only shot at defending him. Obviously there is no way he’s going 3-for-20 against us again. I worry about containing Westbrook in a pick and roll situation. Their last three losses came when they scored less than 100, so obviously if we can’t defend things might go sour.

Keys to the game

Render Durant inefficient: He’s scored 25 points or more in 24 straight games, there is no much containing him. Even when he went 3-for-20 against Portland in November he still got 16…so he’s going to score. Portland has to find a way to make it an inefficient 20 or 25. Much easier said than done, but we’ve got a shot if we make Durant inefficient.

Make Westbrook a scorer or creater: He can’t get 23 points and 8 assists. I’ll take a lot of points from him or a lot of assists, but a combination of both could prove lethal when he’s paired with Durant.Also….LET HIM SHOOT JUMPERS.

Win the battle of the boards: Gave up 14 offensive boards to this team in November and are just coming off a game where we got pounded on the glass. Can’t give them second shots.

Attack the basket: No need to settle against the Thunder. Get back into attack mode.

Shockingly, the Blazers are in a ‘we really need to win this game’ mode. I’ve already mentioned our struggles in Phoenix, so a home win will at least give us a shred of momentum going into the All-Star Break. This game could very well go either way, either a complete team victory or something that is the opposite of it.

The last time these two teams played, it was an absolute massacre. I mean we’re talking epic beatdown. There are lottery teams who are finishing strong and lottery teams who are already on vacation. OKC is in the latter category. The Thunder are absolutely limping to the finish line. They have lost 4 of their last 5 games since that beating in Oklahoma City. They finish their season on the road and their last game was a 115-98 loss in Milwaukee. They really want to be smelling what Blake Griffin is cookin’. The personnel is still there for some issues in this contest. Kevin Durant, Jeff Green and Russell Westbrook are a nice three-headed monster. But those are the only guys who can beat you and that’s pretty much all they have. As talented as I think Kyle Weaver is dating back to his days at Wazzu, I don’t mind him taking 10+ shots. Nenad Krstic should not be able to put a dent in our front line. Earl Watson? Malik Rose? Come on. Portland’s about to go up against superstars in intense situations, there isn’t anything that the Thunder should be able to throw at them that they can’t handle.

Keys to success:

• Attack the basket/go inside. Check the Thunder’s roster and see if there is anyone remotely capable of being able to guard LaMarcus Aldridge. The answer is no. Obviously I expect some adjustments after the torching he gave them which should only open up opportunities for everyone else. But I’m looking for him to go to work. Portland has a big advantage on the frontline as evidenced by the way they dominated on the boards last time. Not only rebounding -wise but players should have no fear attacking the basket against the Thunder. Krstic, DJ White, Malik Rose and Robert Swift are “protecting” the basket. Come on now. Don’t settle for jumpers, attack, attack, attack.
• Play a sharp game. No settling for jumpers, no sloppy turnovers, no playing down to your opponent. The poor stretches we’ve had against Memphis and the Clippers lately were punctuated by the above statements occuring. This is a game where business needs to be taken care of. If the Blazers play Blazer Basketball for 48 minutes, the Thunder cannot hang with them. But if they start beating themselves it is a different story. Don’t leave the backdoor open.
• Protect the paint. Get the Thunder shooting jumpshots. I’d much rather see Jeff Green and Russell Westbrook shooting jumpers than slashing to the paint and getting to the line. Durant can get hot but he won’t have that much help from the perimeter. If Portland can protect the paint as well as they did last time these two teams played, it should be a beat-down.
• Non superstars, get your swagger going. Travis Outlaw needs to shimmy his slump off. Rudy Fernandez needs to continue his strong play. Ditto for Steve Blake. Oden needs to continue putting in productive minutes. This is the type of game that can boost confidence at a time when that can only help. Because these guys are going to be absolutely key in the playoffs.
• Hopefully get some guys some rest. Let’s put it away early so Brandon Roy can rest up a little bit.

And that’s really all I got. More importantly, let’s go Kings. I’m a strong believer of karma (AHEMwhenitsconvenientAHEM) so I’m thinking the Basketball Gods might help give the Kings a chance. Although if they lose handily to the Nuggets tomorrow I will forever hate them. Kevin Martin killed my fantasy team with his gimpiness, Beno Udrih made me barf with his “clutch” shots against the Spurs and Nocioni fell asleep against the Hornets. We fixin’ to start beefin’. Also let’s hope for Chris Paul to go OFF and the Warriors to squeeze some magic out of NellieBall. Houston or San Antonio…one of you need to go down. We need home-court advantage worse than the Kardashians need to be driven off a cliff. Yeah, I said it.