MARCH 29, 2013; Portland, OR, USA; Utah Jazz center Al Jefferson (25) points as Portland Trail Blazers point guard Damian Lillard (0) argues a call during the fourth quarter of the game at the Rose Garden. The Jazz won the game 105-95. Mandatory Credit: Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports

I’m going to keep this preview relatively short considering Monday’s tilt in Utah is basically the second of a home-and-home back-to-back, the second home-and-home back-to-back the Blazers have had with Utah this season.

The major benefit of the old home-and-home back-to-back is that less preparation is needed since very little time has elapsed between games. The other major benefit is that the team that loses the first game has extra motivation and the team that wins the first game probably thinks they don’t need to do a whole lot to win the second.

The Blazers are 1-1 in both of their home-and-home back-to-backs in 2012-13 (January 26th and 27th against the LA Clippers and February 1st and 2nd against the Jazz). The good news is that Portland has won the second leg of a home-and-home back-to-back after losing the first (against Utah). The bad news is that both of their wins in those four previous games came at home.

The Blazers dropped the first half of this modified home-and-home back-to-back on Friday in Portland. History says they can win the second round, but it also says they probably won’t.

Blazers Starting 5: PG Damian Lillard, SG Wesley Matthews, SF Nicolas Batum, PF J.J. Hickson, C Meyers Leonard

Jazz Starting 5: PG Mo Williams, SG Randy Foye, SF Gordon Hayward, PF Paul Milsap, C Al Jefferson

There are basically two things for Portland to remember coming into Monday’s game in Salt Lake City.

First, the Blazers need to remember that games are 48 minutes long, good teams like the Jazz with very real things left to play for are going to be locked in from the jump and will stay locked in until the final buzzer. Portland lost on Friday not because they gave up, they lost because they did just enough wrong that Utah could take advantage of.  The Blazers can’t expect that this game will be over with three minutes left on the clock because you know their opponent is going to be playing the whole 48.

The second thing Portland needs to do is completely forget that Friday’s game ever happened. Or if not forget the whole thing than at least forget how Friday’s game ended. They need to remember that Al Jefferson is going to pump fake and that Mo Williams likes to have the ball in his hands with the game on the line. They need to remember that the Jazz jump passing lanes so floated passes aren’t a good idea, and they need to remember that even though Utah has Randy Foye, Gordon Hayward, the aforementioned Williams, and Marvin Williams on the roster, this team is going to score more than half of its points in the painted area. Other than that, though, the Blazers need to try as hard as they can to not dwell on the fact that just three days ago they basically gave away their season to this very team.

What to Watch For

• Can the Blazers take care of the ball. Portland’s loss to Utah at the RG last week was highlighted by a slew of costly turnovers. That game included a stretch where the Blazers coughed up the rock on four straight possessions. That can’t happen again if Portland wants to win.
• Will the Blazers be able to stop Mo Williams and/or Al Jefferson. Last Friday, Portland got a solid game from Damian Lillard, and not horrible games from most of the starting five. Those performances paled in comparison to what Utah got from Mo Williams and Al Jefferson, especially from Mo Williams, especially down the stretch. Portland gave that game away with turnovers, but Mo Williams helped with his pretty amazing closing offense. Al Jefferson did most of his damage in the third quarter, but he was solid from start to finish last Friday. Meyers Leonard talked about how hard it is to guard a guy like Jefferson in his post game comments. Hopefully seeing Big Al in two games so close together means Leonard will bite on fewer of his head fakes. As for Lillard and Williams, Dame can defend Mo, but if Williams plays on Monday the way he did on Friday, he’s going to be very very hard to stop.
• Do the Blazers have anything left. Portland is on a short list of teams waiting for the other shoe to drop. Minnesota is yet to be eliminated from contention, the only team in the West behind the Blazers who are mathematically still in it, same goes for the Washington Wizards, the Philadelphia 76ers, and the Toronto Raptors. Dallas, Utah, and the Los Angeles Lakers are also fighting to stay alive, but they have a significant advantage over Portland in that they have fewer games to win to get into the playoffs. The Blazers odds are long, they get longer each time they lose. Soon they’re odds will be zero. Does Portland have anything in the tank to keep themselves alive. April is going to be a quick month with no easy games. The Blazers will be lucky to get one win. The longer that one win is in coming, the less likely we’ll actually see it.

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MARCH 29, 2013; Portland, OR, USA; Portland Trail Blazers shooting guard Wesley Matthews (2) celebrates with center J.J. Hickson (21) after hitting a shot at the buzzer to end the first quarter of the game at the Rose Garden. Mandatory Credit: Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports

Something was very clearly missing for the Blazers Friday night at the Rose Garden. It wasn’t exactly intensity; Portland played three and a half quarters of very solid basketball, dictating the tempo of play for most of the night. It wasn’t execution either, at least not for much of the game; Friday the Blazers got a lot of very good looks and were able to get easy baskets even deep into the fourth quarter.

It wasn’t even LaMarcus Aldridge. With their All-Star sitting behind the bench in street clothes and gleaming diamond earrings, Portland got very valuable contributions from Victor Claver and Meyers Leonard, nearly making up for what they lost without LA in the lineup.

What was missing from Friday’s game was a closer, or if not a closer, then a finishing move. Friday’s game was basically the opposite of Wednesday’s. The Blazers lost to the Nets in Wednesday’s opening minutes. They lost to the Jazz in Friday’s closing minutes.

A young team, with a very positive future is still learning things 72 games into an 82-game season. Games like Wednesday’s and Fridays offer different lessons. On Wednesday Portland learned that Reggie Evans can influence the outcome of a game with three offensive rebounds in a game’s opening half dozen possessions. Friday, the Blazers learned that you can lead for 45 minutes, but that means little when you’re trailing after 48 minutes.

The best teams in the NBA start and finish games strong. Those teams that are still learning their way lose at the beginning and the end of games. Portland has never been one of the best teams in the league this season, even if they’ve flirted with the top 16 or higher (I think at their highest they were near the top 10 in at least one league-wide power ranking), and over the last week and change, they’ve shown more of their true colors. The 2012-13 Blazers are a work in progress. The progress has been good, but they still have a long way to go.

Friday’s game reminded me a bit of one of the most memorable games of Brandon Roy’s rookie year. It was a late season home game against the Spurs, and Portland, headed again to the lottery after making a bit of early-season noise with a crazy long winning streak, lead almost all the way. In that game’s final few possessions, Manu Ginobili went super nova, and the Spurs won. It was just another W for the best team in the league at the time, but for the Blazers it was a backbreaker, a season deflator.

The Jazz weren’t really toying with Portland Friday, as the Spurs may have been doing on that night so many years ago. Utah was the better team, even when trailing, but this was a competitive game, the Jazz didn’t just flip the switch because they felt like it was time to throttle the Blazers. Utah played opportunistic basketball. They took advantage of Portland not being able to shut the door. They took advantage of four straight Blazer turnovers that helped to erase a six-point Portland lead. They made shots down the stretch when the Blazers couldn’t. In short, they had what Portland didn’t: a closer.

Al Jefferson had a fantastic night Friday, abusing both Meyers Leonard and Joel Freeland with his patented set of ball fakes, spin moves, and mid-range jumpers, but it was Mo Williams who provided the baskets that made the most difference at the close of the fourth quarter.

Williams is no stranger to torching the Blazers, he went for 40 (or there about) as a Cavalier in 08-09, helping Cleveland achieve what was basically impossible that season, getting a win against Portland in the Rose Garden. Mo scored 14 points in Friday’s final frame, eight of those points came during Utah’s closing run that that tilted this game in their favor for good.

Damian Lillard played very well against the crafty Williams, but he didn’t get the help he needed, not from the referees who were letting a lot of contact under and around the rim go, and not from his teammates who all seemed to go cold at the same time.

The Blazers probably won’t want to watch tape of Friday’s game, and I don’t blame them. It was hard to watch Portland cough up a very important game in real time; I wouldn’t want to see it again in playback. What will be important, though, is to remember, if not be reminded, of how Friday’s final three minutes played out.

A team like Utah, with a number of savvy veterans and a very very real shot playing spoiler of the number-one NBA narrative of 2012-13 (sorry Bron and your other-worldly winning streak, the Lakers hold the trump card) is going to find a way to steal a big win if you let them. Too many bad passes, too many empty possessions, not enough stops: the classic formula for handing over a close game.

Portland travels to Oakland Sunday to take on the Golden State Warriors yet another playoff bound Western Conference team.

Couple of quick things

• Meyers Leonard got the start Friday. With LaMarcus Aldridge sidelined, J.J. Hickson started at power forward and Meyers played center. It was a bit of a mixed bag for everybody. Hickson recorded another double-double (fitting since Friday the Blazers introduced their new Mr. Double-Double J.J. Hickson t-shirt), and looked pretty good in his natural position. Meyers had a nice game for three quarters, and was a bit of a disaster in the fourth. Leonard was responsible for at least one of Portland’s really bad turnovers during Utah’s close-out run, he also made a pretty horrible pass out to Victor Claver that ended in a hurried deep three to beat the shot-clock buzzer that fell probably a foot short of the rim. Leonard was pulled immediately following his last, and most egregious turnover, a floated pass that lead to an and-one run out by Randy Foye that gave Utah the lead they then wouldn’t surrender. It was a tough ending for what was a pretty good game for Portland’s other lottery pick. Leonard was not quite despondent in the home locker room after the game, but he wasn’t very happy with himself. Regardless of the outcome, though, it’s good for Meyers to get the minutes. His on the job learning has been good much of the season. With LA out maybe for another game, Leonard will have a good chance to build on Friday’s game in Oakland. If Portland decides to shut down LA, which actually doesn’t seem that likely, it would be great for Meyers. He needs to get more starts under his belt. Moving J.J. Hickson to the bench is also an option, although that too seems unlikely. What Meyers needs to do in his final 10 games as a rookie is contribute in his minutes, that way, even if he doesn’t start, he’ll stay on the floor.
• Speaking of rookies who need development, both Joel Freeland and Victor Claver had good minutes and bad minutes Friday. Freeland is showing that he can play a little bit of defense, although he bit pretty hard on a couple Al Jefferson pump fakes. Even a rookie from overseas should know that Al Jefferson pump fakes. Claver’s a bit of a paradox, he’s a stretch four who can’t shoot threes. Claver’s best moments Friday came when he put the ball on the floor and attacked the basket. That too is a bit paradoxical. To get open lanes, he has to have a deep ball his opponents’ respect. Also, Claver can’t defend a guy like Derrick Favors, and it’s a bit unfair to even ask him to try. More than Meyers Leonard, the development of Claver and Freeland is very important. They’re here to stay, at least for awhile, and if Portland is going to use cap space to retain their respective services, they need them to contribute.

Box Score

Standings

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MARCH 29, 2013; Portland, OR, USA; Utah Jazz point guard Mo Williams (5) drives to the basket on Portland Trail Blazers point guard Damian Lillard (0) during the fourth quarter of the game at the Rose Garden. The Jazz won the game 105-95. Mandatory Credit: Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports

Feb 2, 2013; Portland, OR, USA; Utah Jazz point guard Randy Foye (8) shoots as Portland Trail Blazers point guard Damian Lillard (0) defends at the Rose Garden. Mandatory Credit: Craig Mitchelldyer-USA TODAY Sports

This is it for Portland. There is precious little time left in 2012-13 to make something happen, Friday night’s match-up with the Utah Jazz (the first of two games with the Jazz over the next four days) could very well be the Blazers’ last chance to make something more meaningful out of this season than just the Damian Lillard story.

Already, though, there are going to be issues on Friday. LaMarcus Aldridge, who turned an ankle in Portland’s blow-out, feels like the season is over, loss to the Brooklyn Nets has been listed as doubtful for tonight. The Blazers can beat the Jazz without LaMarcus (at least at home, probably not on the road), but it’s going to be very difficult. To square the deal some, Utah will be without Enes Kanter, but in the realm of who is not playing, the advantage definitely leans towards the Jazz.

More than that though, Utah is one of the teams outside the playoff race in the west right now that has a chance at the post season. The Lakers are half a game ahead of the Jazz for eighth, and Los Angeles is battered and bruised, unlikely to cruise into the playoffs. The buzz around Portland is that the playoff race is not over. It’s an exaggeration, but only for the Blazers. The playoff race in the Western Conference, as it stands, is not over. If Utah wins on Friday and the Lakers lose on Saturday, they switch spots. There is a lot on the line for the Jazz.

There’s a lot on the line for Portland too, but there was a lot on the line for the Blazers Wednesday when they faced the Nets. That game was over in the first five minutes. In his post game presser, head coach Terry Stotts mentioned the three offensive rebounds Reggie Evans pulled down in Wednesday’s first few minutes as being important to the game’s eventual outcome. That’s how it went. That how Portland responded to a game they needed to win to have anything like a legitimate chance at catching the Mavericks or the Jazz, let alone the Lakers.

Friday, the Blazers have another chance to prove they have what it takes to make the post season. Hopefully they’re over Wednesday night.

Blazers Starting 5: PG Damian Lillard, SG Wesley Matthews, SF Nicolas Batum, PF Victor Claver, C J.J. Hickson

Jazz Starting 5: PG Mo Williams, SG Randy Foye, SF Gordon Hayward, PF Paul Millsap, C Al Jefferson

Without LA in Portland’s starting five, the match-ups change quite a bit. The stretch four look has been decent for  the Blazers. Victor Claver needs to start knocking down his threes, but at least he’s getting to the right spots and keeping the floor spread when he’s playing. The problem, of course, is that Vic isn’t going to be able to defend any of Utah’s big guys.

The Nets destroyed Portland inside. Al Jefferson isn’t exactly the player Brook Lopez is, but he’s still the kind of crafty center who gives an impatient defender like J.J. Hickson fits. Both Jefferson and Millsap should, and will, get every kind of look they want.

The back-court match-ups favor the Blazers, Damian Lillard and Wesley Matthews have a slight advantage over Randy Foye and Mo Williams. Nicolas Batum shouldn’t have any trouble guarding Gordon Hayward, and hopefully Nic will be able to take advantage of his length and speed to get some easy buckets.

What to Watch For

• How will Portland start the game. There’s no doubt the Blazers got an earful for their effort Wednesday evening. We’ll have to see if the message took. There has been almost no negative press about this team with regards to their relationship with Stotts. From start to finish this unit has seemed to respond well to everything their head coach has said. Stotts questioned his team’s motivation, effort, and preparedness Wednesday. A young team might respond to that kind of assessment by their coach with anger. Friday will be a big test for the Blazers considering they fell flat on their faces last time they tried to back up their “playoff push” talk. Early indications are that Portland will respond favorably. I say that because both Meyers Leonard and Damian Lillard (two rookies who have yet to really behave like rookies) said exactly what their head coach said. Leonard and Lillard both said they were embarrassed Wednesday night, which is how they should have felt.
• Who steps up in LA’s absence. LaMarcus has been Portland’s best and most consistent scorer over the second half of the season. Without him, the Blazers will have a lot to make up for on offense. My guess is Damian Lillard has a big night, probably J.J. Hickson too. Big contributions from those two players won’t be enough. Without somebody like Meyers Leonard or Victor Claver stepping up, Portland won’t win.
• Does Terry Stotts give up, and if yes then when. Wednesday night Stotts threw in the towel early in the fourth quarter. He so completely gave up that when Brooklyn went back to their starters (up 14 with five minutes left) Stotts left his scrub guys in to finish the game. Nobody would blame Stotts if he played his bench most of the night Friday, Portland has a ton of guys who need the minutes. I doubt he’ll tank from the tip, but I bet if this game starts to get out of hand, Stotts will let his second (and third) unit guys play.

@mikeacker | @ripcityproject | mike.acker1@gmail.com