Portland certainly has played by a formula this season. I don’t really have to explain that formula, but for posterity’s sake I think I will.

The Blazers this season, more than other seasons that I can remember, have started games slowly, gotten way behind, stayed in the fight long enough to make it interesting (by that I mean keep the broadcasters from falling asleep), and then ultimately failed in their comeback attempts because playing from behind is tough and playing at 85%  for the stretch run is not good enough when the previous three quarters are played at around 25% at best.

The above is how Monday’s game went down. It was how Tuesday’s game went down too. It’s how a lot of games have gone down in 2012-13.

Tuesday, Blazer play-by-play guy Mike Barrett mentioned that Portland has played a lot of close games this season, and for a team with a bad record, they have been blown out a relatively small number of times. MB dropped this bit of trivia on his viewing audience to try and make Blazer fans feel better. Lots of close games, few blow outs, Portland is better than their record, are Barrett’s many implications. Those close losses could be wins next season (or at the end of this season perhaps); all is not lost by losing.

I agree with the sentiment. I agree that the Blazers are probably a little better than their record (a little), and that some of the games they’ve lost this season could have very easily been wins, and that at some point those close losses will in fact be wins.

I don’t entirely agree, though, with the assessment that Portland’s close losses are too be celebrated all that much. The close losses this season have more to do with the Blazers not giving up on games and making frantic late pushes than it does with Portland playing hotly contested matches that tend to not break in the Blazers’ favor.

Close games are different than late comebacks, both Monday and Tuesday were good examples of how. In a close game, there is pressure on both teams to score late. In a comeback, there is pressure only on the team trying to make the comeback. That’s why even an 85% successful effort down the stretch isn’t enough to complete a comeback. It’s basically perfection or bust. Both Monday and Tuesday it was bust.

Tuesday, the Blazers got the score down to eight and then seven within the final two minutes, not really within striking distance, but a far sight better than being down by nearly 30 as Portland was at various points in the game’s second half.

That the Blazers didn’t get a bucket in a whole minute after Wesley Matthews set a new career-high with his seventh three-pointer of the evening at the 1:32 mark of the fourth quarter wasn’t exactly a death blow, but the fact that an 18-footer in the lane from Mike Dunleavy (which came before Wesley’s last three) and a pair of free throws from Brandon Jennings (which came after) were the only scores the Bucks needed in the last two minutes to seal the victory proves it’s a lot easier to win a game when you’re already ahead.

Portland was winning games with late comebacks a month or so ago. When that was happening, the nickname “Cardiac Kids” was being thrown around. That nickname didn’t stick since the Blazers haven’t been winning close games anymore, and in my opinion that’s a good thing. Winning games late makes for good headlines, comebacks keep people interested. Focusing on them, though, can have its downside. Portland needs to figure out how to get engaged early. They need to figure out how to get stops late. And they need a game plan that is a little more nuanced than chuck threes when things go wrong.

At the same time, there’s at least one positive takeaway from the Blazers’ 12-13 formula for losing close games. Portland is refusing to give up. Many young teams hit March with sub .500 records and they give up. The Blazers haven’t done that, at least not yet. This is good not only because it leads to “exciting” comebacks but because it leads to positive development. Playing hard for 48 minutes is a skill that some NBA players have to learn. Portland is learning it this season, even if they’re not winning.

The Blazers have a day off and then continue this road trip in Chicago on Thursday.

Couple of quick things:

• Luke Babbitt led all players with a +27 when Portland and Milwaukee met at the Rose Garden in January. Babbitt, who has been in and out of the rotation all season and mostly out lately, once again had the Blazers’ highest +/- on Tuesday. Babbitt’s +13 was second only to Ekpe Udoh’s +14, and was the only positive +/- on Portland’s side of the box score above the +1 recorded by LaMarcus Aldridge.
• I had completely forgotten that J.J. Redick was traded to the Bucks. Milwaukee is two games out of seventh in the Eastern Conference and eight games up on Philly for ninth. The Bucks are pretty close to locked in to a first round sweeping by the Miami Heat. The East is going to be shaken up a bit in the bottom half after this season, even if the top team is going to be the Heat for basically the next 15 years. I’m saying all this because Redick is going to get featured during the Bucks’ four-game playoff run, which will help increase his value if/when he hits unrestricted free agency. I’d love to see Redick in Portland. I expect to see Redick in Miami.

Box Score

Standings

@mikeacker | @ripcityproject | mike.acker1@gmail.com

Jan. 07, 2013; Portland, OR, USA; Portland Trail Blazers shooting guard Wesley Matthews (2) salutes the crowd after hitting a three point shot during the fourth quarter of the game against the Orlando Magic at the Rose Garden. Matthews scored 24 points as the Blazers won the game in overtime 125-119. Mandatory Credit: Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports

Anybody can win a five-minute game — Terry Stotts

The above is the sentiment of the Blazers’ head coach when he asked why his team, after going on the very latest of late runs to beat the hot-shooting Orlando Magic 125-119 on Monday to improve to a pretty astonishing four games above .500, is so good at winning in overtime.

Maybe, since Portland is now a seriously astonishing 5-0 in games that go longer than 48 minutes, he should have said HIS team can win a five-minute game, since at this point nobody the Blazers have played in overtime have been able to pull it off.

Wesley Matthews says this team is built for overtime. Nicolas Batum thinks Portland wins in extra periods because his team is able to stay focused and stay together. Damian Lillard has shown he’s the kind of player who can struggle through most of a game and then show up when his team needs him the most. And probably most importantly, the Blazers’ major weakness (no bench) has absolutely no bearing on how Portland finishes close games.

The knock on this Portland team, even after winning a few big games, is that they have a negative scoring differential. For the layman, that means they give up more points than they score on aggregate. I don’t disagree with this being fact. What I disagree with is how important scoring differential will be to the remainder of 2012-13. Clearly, the Blazers outscore their opponents when they win, so even if their aggregate scoring differential was negative on this last road trip (a 20+ point loss against three close victories), they still came out with three wins, basically rendering the whole scoring differential moot.

Take the 1991 World Series as an example of the meaninglessness of scoring differential. Chosen by ESPN as the best World Series ever played, in this series the Atlanta Braves outscored the Minnesota Twins 31 to 24 over the course of seven games. But if somebody asked you who won the “Greatest World Series of All Time,” and you said the Atlanta Braves, you would lose any shred of sports knowledge credibility you might have once had. The scoring disparity in this World Series came from one single game, a game in which Atlanta outscored Minnesota 14-5.

If Portland continues to win close games while losing blowouts (especially if it comes at the pace of four close wins to one blowout loss) there’s no reason to think this team can’t make the Playoffs.

But the question still remains, why and how do the Blazers keep winning tight games? In my mind, if comes down to execution and luck. Two parts execution to one part luck. Monday, Portland executed on the defensive and offensive end in the game’s extra period. They got extra possessions through turnovers that became uncontested dunks, and before those uncontested dunks really turned the tide, they got the kind of looks they could convert. Portland’s first three scores in OT came on free throws by Wesley Matthews, an and-one lay-up and free throw from LaMarcus Aldridge, and a pull-up 21-footer from Damian Lillard. That’s execution.

The luck in overtime came from a nice bounce on a Lillard floater in the lane and three misses from three by J.J. Redick, who earlier in the evening couldn’t have missed the basket if somebody had paid him to.

That Portland executed so well in the extra five minutes of play Monday, may have some Blazer fans scratching their heads about how they finished the final two possessions of regulation. In one defensive possession and one offensive possession, Portland played like a team that didn’t care at all about winning their only winnable game for about the next week and a half. First with his team up three, Damian Lillard went under a high pick while trying to cover Jameer Nelson. Nelson is a dead-eye and he did what dead-eye shooters do when their man goes under a screen, he drilled a three.

On the next possession, Portland went flat with Dame going one-on-one with Nelson. Damian got a good look at a long three, but it was short, and the game went into overtime.

The Blazers’ final offensive possession sparked a mini debate on the second auxiliary press row on how exactly it should have been handled. My feelings were that time and score were probably not conducive to anything other than what Portland ran. If there were fewer ticks on the clock remaining, the Blazers could have run a play like they ran to get Nicolas Batum a quick trigger three against Cleveland or a one-bounce, high screen three like Dame had against the Hornets. The problem with having almost nine seconds on the clock and running a play for a quick shot is that make or miss, there is going to be enough time on the clock for at least one more possession. Terry Stotts said he wanted to make sure Portland had the last look, that means burning all that remains of the game clock.

The other good option on the Blazers’ last offensive possession would be a drive and dish to Nicolas Batum or LaMarcus Aldridge. Again, this set is problematic because the last thing Portland wants to do is turn the ball over. By keeping the ball in one players hands, the probability of a turnover is greatly limited.

Sure you’d rather see Damian attack the rim than settle for a step-back three, especially considering he was O-fer on the night from deep, but knowing that the worst case scenario is overtime, it makes sense to play it safe.

And considering how Portland’s played in overtime, while it makes settling for a less than perfect shot and OT not feel like settling at all.

That’s why next time Terry Stotts is asked how his team continues to win in overtime, he should respond by saying, “the 2012-13 Blazers are built to win five-minute games.”

The Blazers have two days off before they face the Heat on Thursday at the Rose Garden.

Couple quick things:

• Four of Portland’s five starters collected double-doubles Monday: J.J. Hickson (20 points, 15 rebounds), LaMarcus Aldridge (27 points, 10 rebounds), Damian Lillard (18 points, 10 assists), and Nicolas Batum (16 points, 10 assists). Wesley Matthews was the outlier, but his line wasn’t so bad: 24 points (7-of-11 from the field and 4-of-7 from three), four assists, and three rebounds.
• Ronnie Price led the Blazers’ second unit in scoring with eight. Every Blazer reserve scored (even if only one played more than 14 minutes), but Portland’s bench was still trounced 43-to-20. Almost all of Orlando’s bench scoring was done by J.J. Redick who had 29. Redick shot 11-of-17 from the field and 6-of-10 from deep. Redick and former Blazer Josh McRoberts both played more than 30 minutes off the bench. McBob logged a full 39 minutes. Imagine Portland with Orlando’s bench, and Orlando’s bench isn’t even that good.
• Standings Watch:Portland wins, the teams directly above and below them in the standings are idle. The Blazers currently sit at seventh in the West, .003 points ahead of Denver, and a full game behind Houston. If the post season began tomorrow, Portland would face the defending Western Conference Champion Oklahoma City Thunder. The Blazers host OKC this coming Sunday.

Box Score

Standings

@mikeacker | @ripcityproject | mike.acker1@gmail.com

Jan. 07, 2013; Portland, OR, USA; Portland Trail Blazers point guard Damian Lillard (0) and Portland Trail Blazers shooting guard Wesley Matthews (2) celebrate during overtime of the game against the Orlando Magic at the Rose Garden. Matthews scored 24 points and Lillard scored 18 points as the Blazers won the game in overtime 125-119. Mandatory Credit: Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports

Dwight Howard had a big night his last time in Portland, but it wasn't enough to get the win. Photo courtesy of ESPN.

Blazers: 7-2 (2nd Northwest Division)

Magic: 6-3 (3rd Southeast Division)

Game Details: Rose Garden Arena, Portland, OR. 7:00 PM. TV: KGW Radio: KXTG (750 AM)

Projected Portland Starting Lineup: PG Raymond Felton (#5, 6’1”, North Carolina), SG Wesley Matthews (#2, 6’5″, Marquette), SF Gerald Wallace (#3, 6’7″, Alabama), PF LaMarcus Aldridge (#12, 6’11″, Texas), C Marcus Camby (#23, 6’11″, UMass)

Projected Orlando Starting Lineup: PG Jameer Nelson (#14, 6′, Saint Joseph’s), SG Jason Richardson (#23, 6’6”, Michigan State), SF Hedo Turkoglu (#15, 6’10”, Efes Pilsen, Turkey), PF Ryan Anderson (#33, 6’10”, California), C Dwight Howard (#12, 6’11”, South West Atlanta Christian Academy)

Another day, another game, and this time another test. The second night of back-to-backs have been something of a Portland specialty in the recent past, and tonight’s game will be a good primer for the two upcoming on this next extended road swing, so that makes this game a test. Orlando is a middle of the pack Playoff team with a decent record coming in, but has yet to record a signature victory against one of the NBA’s best, so it’s a test in that regard as well.

But here’s what really makes this game a test: the Magic have Dwight Howard, and he is a tough guy to game plan for. Go back to last season when Orlando played in Portland. The Blazers held Howard to a measly 39 points and 15 rebounds, and barely escaped with a 14-point win. How do you game plan for that? Did coach Nate McMillan tell his goes to let the big fella do whatever he wanted but to not let any other player hit a shot? That’s kind of what happened (Dwight’s teammates combined for 44 points on that night), but was it on purpose? Maybe. Maybe not.

Portland has to figure out a way to limit Dwight, if he goes for 40 and 20 tonight the Blazers will probably lose, but they can’t wear themselves out trying to stop Dwight, because basically nobody can do that. If they spend all their defensive energy in the paint, guys like J.J. Redick, Ryan Anderson, and Jason Richardson can light them up from beyond the arc. If they lose track of Hedo Turkoglu, that guy can do some damage too.

Attacking Dwight on offense might be the right course of action. If they can get him in foul trouble, and put him on the bench, then they won’t have to worry about him. That’s what Portland did against Oklahoma City, and it worked, but OKC doesn’t run their offense through their big guys. Making LaMarcus Aldridge work against Dwight on offense and on defense is going to shorten his night for sure.

Portland seems to have fallen on a winning game plan, attacking early with Gerald Wallace, getting Wesley Matthews to knock down some deep shots, establishing LaMarcus. There’s no reason they should switch up now. Just like the last few nights, the Blazers will win this game on the defensive end, the offense will probably take care of itself. If it doesn’t, they can always start fouling Dwight early, and make him earn his 40 from the charity stripe. Howard is a career 59.6% free throw shooter. Through nine games this season, that rate has dropped to 45%. Nate’s talked about extending the rotation. Why not let Luke Babbitt get a chance to foul Dwight Howard six times?

Here’s what I’ll be watching for:

• Will Portland have legs: The Blazer’s main guys racked up heavy minutes last night. They’re going to be a little gassed, that’s safe to say. The home crowd should give them a boost, but if it takes too long they could find themselves in trouble.
• How much energy will the Magic have: Orlando hasn’t played since Sunday. This is a season without many stretches of time off. Did the Magic use a day to practice and run sets? Or did they all take two maintenance days, get some shopping in at the Nike store and have a shave and a haircut? Which would be a better idea. A practice might make the team more crisp but less energetic; two days off and they might come out flat but have the wind to out work Portland.
• Will Nate extend the rotation, and if yes, how far: Nate McMillan first brought up extending the rotation last night in his post game remarks while addressing the play of Jamal Crawford. He has also mentioned using more guys due to the upcoming road trip. Add the fact that, like I said, Portland’s starters all breached the 30-minute mark last night, and there’s a chance we’ll see some changes in the rotation this evening. My guess is bench regulars Jamal Crawford and Nicolas Batum get in the game sooner and see more extended action, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see Nolan Smith and maybe a minute or two of Elliot Williams.
• Can Portland stay perfect at home: The home crowd has been a huge boost. Following Wednesday’s game, the Blazers won’t be in the Rose City until Monday, January 23rd. That’s a long time. I’m sure these guys want to leave on a high note.

email me: mike.acker1@gmail.com

Twitter: @mikeacker | @ripcityproject