Right now is a good chance to check the standings, if only so we can all remind ourselves how far out of this playoff race Portland is so then we don’t get over-excited right now. Getting too jacked up about back-to-back road wins against playoff teams might then lead to major disappointment when it becomes clear that the Blazers probably aren’t going to be able to make up the two and half games needed to steal the eight seed and make the playoffs.

That major disappointment, when it comes, might overshadow the good work this team has done to get to 33 wins and put themselves within spitting distance of being the best team in the West to miss the post season.

On that note too, getting too many wins right now means Portland loses their pick (I don’t need to get too deep into that one). So it’s really a lose lose right now for the Blazers. Winning is nice, but probably too little too late, and losing is still no fun even if it makes it more likely that Portland won’t lose their first pick in this year’s draft.

But I think all that is a discussion for another day, the day when the Blazers are either on the door step of mathematical elimination or have worked their way just a little further up the playoff ladder. Right now, as you pick up the pieces of your busted bracket, we can take a quick look at what happened last night in Atlanta.

The Blazers beat the Hawks because they got balanced contributions from all five of their starters, and because they played defense in the fourth quarter.

Portland’s narrative has changed some over the last month and chance. The addition of Eric Maynor has contributed to the Blazers’ depth, and no longer is Portland the team that can’t get any scoring from their bench. Friday was a throwback game for the Blazers under this new narrative. Meyers Leonard and Eric Maynor played well (and both played more than 20 minutes), but they were basically the only bench Portland played.

The Blazers spent much of the beginning of this season relying only on the play of their starting five. Friday, Portland’s starters all finished in the positive with +/-. Four of the Blazers’ five starters scored at least 15 points, and Nicolas Batum, the only starter not to score in double digits, contributed seven rebounds, seven assists, and four steals. Meyers Leonard finished with a solid +9 in 29 minutes, but most of his positive in the plus/minus category came from his spending a significant percentage of his time on the floor with the starters.

Balanced scoring and steady contributions from the starters put Portland in Friday’s game, and it was late defense that sealed it. The Blazers’ defense has been up and down this season, and though this team has made a lot of comebacks in 2012-13, most of their late game play is driven by their offense. That’s part of the reason Portland doesn’t play well with a lead, they’re not that great on defense.

Just as Friday was a return to form for the Blazers of earlier this season who had to basically rely on their starters alone for wins, it was a shift too in Portland’s ability to hold a lead through defense. The Blazers led 90-89 with 4:46 left to play in Friday’s game, and it looked like the Hawks were going to find a way to get Portland to cough this one up.

Atlanta didn’t score for more than three minutes at the close of the fourth quarter. That three minute scoring drought from the Hawks allowed the Blazers to build a nine-point lead, and basically put the game away.

Portland didn’t exactly tie Atlanta down to close Friday’s game. The Hawks still got plenty of shots, they just didn’t go down. But the Blazers were able to finish defensive possessions with rebounds. Giving up second chance points late in a game is a good way to let a lead go. The opposite is also true, securing defensive rebounds, limiting second and third looks at the rim, is a pretty great way to keep from turning over a win.

As it stands right now, the Blazers are 2-2 on this five-game trip. Portland closes this roadie out on Sunday in Oklahoma City. Beating Chicago and Atlanta back-to-back was unexpected and actually rather impressive. It’s unlikely it will change too much in the overall story of this season.

Beating the Thunder in Oklahoma could be the kind of momentous win the Blazers could carry into April when almost all the games are at the Rose Garden.

It’s contradictory, of course, to say that one win or two wins is basically meaningless and then to turn around and say beating the Thunder in Oklahoma City could be a game changer. I’m going to say it anyway though. Portland is two and half games behind the Lakers for eighth in the West. The Lakers have a favorable schedule to close March, but a tough run of games in April. Utah and Dallas, the teams between Portland and LA, haven’t been super consistent as of late. Anything can happen.

I’ve counseled again and again against buying into the playoff push hype. I’ve said from the beginning that this season isn’t about wins and losses, or at least not about totals in either the win or loss column. Portland has 13 games left, if the Blazers win in Oklahoma City, those next 12 games could be very very interesting.

Box Score

Standings

@mikeacker | @ripcityproject | mike.acker1@gmail.com

Nov 12, 2012; Portland, OR, USA; Atlanta Hawks point guard Jeff Teague (0) drives to the basket past Portland Trail Blazers center Meyers Leonard (11) at the Rose Garden. Mandatory Credit: Craig Mitchelldyer-USA TODAY Sports

My esteemed colleague and friend Danny Nowell (of Portland Roundball Society and others) has positioned himself as something of a standard bearer for an argument that crops up every year in mid to late March. No, I’m not talking about the discussion on the relative merits of the band fun., I’m talking about the argument over which is better, college basketball or professional basketball.

Mr. Nowell, as any intelligent and practiced arguer does, basically says that the argument itself is incorrect. College basketball has its value; professional basketball has its value. The two are not mutually exclusive, but their relative values and purposes are very very different. I applaud Danny, and his ability to argue both sides against the middle, and though I think he may be significantly influenced toward the college game because of his personal biography (if I grew up in North Carolina and attended UNC I would love college basketball too) I struggle to find the college game interesting or engaging in anything close to the way I’ve found, and continue to find, the NBA game absolutely captivating on almost every level.

That being said, there is one thing the NCAA has on the NBA, especially in March: the importance of one single game. The NCAA Tournament is single elimination, win or go home. There is a fundamental paradox in the NBA. Although every game matters, and seasons are played “one game at a time,” to quote a favorite coach cliche, no single game is more important that any other game regardless of the outcome. Every year the NCAA Tournament sees a top seeded team struggle in their opening game and eventually fall. In the NBA, winning or losing one game does not have the power to turn a season one way or the other. In fact, one win doesn’t even really have an impact on the outcome of a playoff series.

Long story short, if the NCAA is win or go home, the NBA is win or lose, in the end it really doesn’t make that much difference.

That, of course, is a long lead-in to this: Portland beat the Bulls in Chicago, it was a big win, one of the best of the season, and it’s overall impact on what remains of 2012-13 is negligible at best. Whereas La Salle gets another game after their win over Kansas State (and in the process further ruins my already destroyed bracket) in the NCAA Round of 64 (I can’t in good faith call it the Second Round), the Blazers’ shortcomings weren’t forgiven nor were they given a free pass to the playoffs by winning in Chi-Town.

Portland is in Atlanta on Friday, another playoff team with the possibility of home court advantage to play for, win or lose, they’ll play on Sunday in Oklahoma City. Beating the Bulls was nice and fun to watch, and as meaningful as it was on Thursday, it doesn’t mean a whole lot today.

Portland Starting 5: PG Damian Lillard, SG Wesley Matthews, SF Nicolas Batum, PF LaMarcus Aldridge, C J.J. Hickson

Hawks Starting 5: PG Jeff Teague, SG Devin Harris, SF Kyle Korver, PF Josh Smith, C Al Horford

Like Chicago, Atlanta has a pretty small line-up. That’s good for Portland, the Blazers struggle the most against teams with big guys in the middle. The Hawks’ lack of size is made up for by the skill of Al Horford, just like the Blazers make up for not having a center by running their low-post offense through LaMarcus Aldridge, another multifaceted big guy who does a lot more than just pound it inside.

That LA and Horford probably won’t go head-up is an interesting wrinkle. If Josh Smith stays out on the elbow, pulling LA out with him, Horford should probably be able to tune up J.J. Hickson. If Smith works inside for offensive rebounds, or if he can’t knock down a jumper, LaMarcus might be able to help Hickson cover Horford. Regardless of how it goes, the foursome of Horford/Smith versus LA/J.J. is going to be a good barometer for this game.

The same goes for the four-way of Damian Lillard and Wesley Matthews against Jeff Teague and Devin Harris. Portland’s back court is better from distance, but Teague and Harris are tough covers. Both Hawks guards can get to the rim. There’s a good chance either Dame or Wes will get into early foul trouble trying to stay in front of Teague and Harris. If/when that happens, Portland’s adjustment is going to be critical. Figuring out a way to make Teague and Harris shoot from outside is also going to be important.

The Hawks only real shooter in their starting five is Kyle Korver, he won’t beat the Blazers on his own, but that doesn’t mean he can be ignored. Nicolas Batum is going to have assert himself on defense. Batum is also going to have to find a way to make Korver work on the defensive end. The most important thing for Nicolas and the Blazers as a whole will be not letting Korver get open looks. Korver’s a knock down shooter, maybe the best in the NBA. He doesn’t miss when he’s open, and Portland can’t leave him open.

What to Watch For

• Outside shooting. As I just said, Kyle Korver is Atlanta’s main three-point shooter. Jeff Teague’s numbers from three have gone up this season, but he still doesn’t shoot that well from downtown. On the other side of the equation, Portland has shot pretty well over the last few games. The Blazers knocked down 10 threes in Chicago. If they can get close to that number in Atlanta (while not letting the Hawks also go off from long range), Portland could find themselves in this game.
• Taking care of the ball. Jeff Teague and Devin Harris thrive on creating and exploiting turnovers. Lillard, Matthews, and all of the Blazers’ ball handlers have to be careful not to get sloppy with the dribble or loose with the passes. Too many turnovers, and Atlanta will run away with this one.
• LaMarcus Aldridge vs. Al Horford. LA has been on a tear. Al Horford is the head of class of big guys in the east. The head-up winner of this battle will determine (probably) who wins this game.

Feb 18, 2012; Portland, OR, USA; Portland Trail Blazers point guard Raymond Felton (5) drives past Atlanta Hawks center Zaza Pachulia (27) in the first quarter at the Rose Garden. Credit: Craig Mitchelldyer-US PRESSWIRE

Well what’d you know, these Blazers might not be dead just yet. Why was Portland the hottest team pre-Linsanity? Mostly because they can play like they did Saturday night, and at the beginning of the season they played the good way a lot more than they played the bad way.

They good way? Hustling on both ends of the floor, attacking the offensive and defensive glass, making shots, getting turnovers, not letting the other team hit the big buckets. It wasn’t the prettiest game of the season by any means, but it was the kind of game that the Blazers controlled from the tip, and never let go of.

Thursday night, you could see the Clippers comeback building in the middle of the third quarter, so by the time they took the lead in the fourth everybody was prepared for it. Saturday was basically the opposite. Portland entered the second half leading by 15 on Saturday night, and by the middle of the game’s final quarter, the portion of the game Thursday night that saw LA complete their comeback, the Blazers lead had ballooned to 22.

In the final two and half minutes of the game, the Rose Garden crowd had returned to that old familiar place, holding their breath as Luke Babbitt launched threes and the Blazers just couldn’t get to the century mark and the free Chalupa promised land. It’s been awhile since we’ve been there. It was nice to be back.

A lot of people deserve some measure of credit for getting a really big win–a win that ended at least three losing streaks–but nobody is going to get more positive ink than Raymond Felton. And by all accounts he deserves it. Felton has not been good in quite some time. He needed a good game at the very least to prove to himself that it could be done. Raymond didn’t have a blow-the-roof off kind of night, but in comparison to how he’s played the last few times out, it was easily the best he’s been in a month.

Felton’s stat line looks pretty nice (6-of-11 from the field, 2-of-5 from deep, 14 points, eight assists, three rebounds, and only two turnovers) but the way he carried himself on the court is what everybody will be talking about. It’s not uncommon to see guys at the NBA level respond to criticism in the papers et al. by playing angry; playing like they have to prove to all the doubters that they can still compete and contribute.  It was only a matter of time before Raymond got it in his head that he needed to show that he’s still in the NBA for a reason.

The key now for Felton is to follow up his performance Saturday with more games like it. He also needs to limit his 0-fer games to basically none. Ben Golliver from Blazersedge made a pretty astute observation post-game, when he pointed out that 14, 8, and 3 (points, assists, rebounds in case you were wondering) has been standard for Ray’s career. That’s good and bad. Good, because it means that we should be able to expect this kind of play from Felton. Bad, because it illustrates just how ineffective he’s been up to this point.

Raymond Felton wasn’t the only guy that stepped up Saturday, though. LaMarcus Aldridge made his triumphant return–a bit earlier than expected but just in time in my opinion–and had a nice night. He came out pretty strong, hitting four of his first seven field goal attempts. In the second half his legs seemed to go away just a little, drawing a lot of front iron on his jumper, but he didn’t show any lingering effects of the sprained ankle that kept him out of the last two games.

Nobody that watches this team at all can deny what LA brings to the table. But like Felton’s game, LaMarcus’s impact on Saturday had less to do with how he played and more to do with the simple fact that he played at all.

Post game, Nicolas Batum was asked what it meant to have LA back on the floor. He was reluctant to say that LaMarcus changed everything, but he did say that he changed most things. Portland played with a confidence and a flow that they didn’t have during the games they’ve been without their All-Star. That’s what happens when you re-insert your most important offensive weapon.

Speaking of Nicolas Batum and important offensive weapons, Nic stayed in the starting line-up Saturday, moving Wesley Matthews to the bench. From now until the end of time that’s the way it should stay. Nicolas led all scorers with 22 points, hitting 9-of-15 from the field and 3-of-6 from deep. Batum added eight boards, a steal, and a block, and threw in a baseline-drive dunk for good measure.

I still think that Nic is at his best when catching and shooting, but his back-down game improves every night, as does his ability to do things with the ball in his hands. Saturday he even stepped in and knocked down a couple of nice mid-range jumpers.

The mid-range game isn’t something that is emphasized in the NBA for small forwards and shooting guards. One step in from the three-point line is widely regarded as the worst shot that can be taken. It’s only a foot closer to the basket, but worth two points and not three. The risk reward ratio says that shot isn’t worth taking.

However, adding the ability to hit the mid-range J can take a shooter’s game to the next level. Nicolas has the potential to grow into an all-around talent. Getting consistent from mid-range might just be the next step in the evolution of his game.

The Blazers have one final road game and one home game before the All-Star break. These are both big, and winnable, games. The Lakers aren’t as unbeatable as they once were. San Antonio is killing it right now, but Portland should be able to give them a game on their home court. The Blazers had a chance to capitalize on winning in Oakland, but blew it Thursday against the Clips. They now have another chance to build on one win by getting a couple more.

If Portland can hit the All-Star break on a three-game winning streak they’ll be setting themselves up pretty nicely for the second half of the season.

Just a few things:

• Portland absolutely dominated on the glass all night. The Blazers out-rebounded the Hawks 50-to-27. Most impressively, Portland nabbed 15 offensive boards while limiting Atlanta to four. That’s right, four. The Blazers need to hit the glass like this every night. Atlanta is a good rebounding team. Portland should be able to beat bad rebounding teams to the glass if they can beat a good rebounding team like the Hawks.
• Minutes Watch: Here’s two. 15:15 for Nolan Smith. 13:05 for Jamal Crawford. Not a great night for Jamal. Coach Nate McMillan said that Jamal’s minutes were limited only because the starters were playing well, and left it at that. Crawford took one shot, and missed it. On the other end, 15 productive minutes for Nolan. The rook hit a three, made a couple free throws, got three rebounds, two assists, and steal. He also had the opportunity to go mono-a-mono with fellow Oak Hill Academy alum Josh Smith in a jump ball situation. That didn’t turn out so well.
• Standings Watch: Portland comes in Saturday in 10th, wins and now they’re in 9th. Crawling back. If this team continues to play like they did Saturday, they’ll be back in it in no time.

Box Score

Standings

Soaring Down South

Email me: mike.acker1@gmail.com

Twitter: @mikeacker | @ripcityproject

Nolan Smith had a nice game getting extended minutes for the first time in awhile. Credit: Craig Mitchelldyer-US PRESSWIRE