March 12, 2013; Portland, OR, USA; Memphis Grizzlies small forward Quincy Pondexter (20) is fouled by Portland Trail Blazers point guard Damian Lillard (0) during the second quarter of the game at the Rose Garden. Mandatory Credit: Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports

Before we get too deep into Wednesday’s game, which has potential blood-bath written all over it, let me give you this:

#Blazers shootaround: LaMarcus Aldridge and Nicolas Batum are hurt, so 3 rookies will start:oregonlive.com/blazers/index.…

— Joe Freeman (@BlazerFreeman) April 3, 2013

This Tweet for The Oregonian‘s Joe Freeman followed this tweet:

btw … the #Blazers can officially be eliminated from the playoffs tonight if they lose to Memphis and Utah beats the Nuggets. — Joe Freeman (@BlazerFreeman) April 3, 2013

Which, of course, followed this tweet (same tweeter):

But it’s the same shoulder that Batum had surgery on his second season, so he and the #Blazers are taking extra caution with it. — Joe Freeman (@BlazerFreeman) April 3, 2013

That tweet followed this tweet:

Batum injured his right shoulder during Monday night’s loss to Utah. He’s had X-rays and an MRI, and the tests did not reveal major damage.

— Joe Freeman (@BlazerFreeman) April 3, 2013

There are very few meaningful games left in this season, meaningful in the sense that winning them might extend the season. Tonight very well might be the last of those meaningful games. And tonight is starting to look quite bleak.

The Blazers have been in a unique position for almost the entire season: they are too good to finish in the top-half of the lottery pool, and not good enough to compete for the post season. Even if Portland is all but out of the playoff race, their unique situation doesn’t change. That being said, April is a unique situation within a unique situation. The Blazers have nine games left, and each of those nine games, their opponent has something very important to play for.

Whether it’s the Memphis Grizzlies (Wednesday’s opponent) playing for an outside shot at home court in the first round, the Golden State Warriors (Portland’s final opponent of 2012-13) trying to hold off the hard-charging Houston Rockets (who play the Blazers at the Rose Garden later this week) for the six seed and avoidance of a first-round date with the Oklahoma City Thunder (in Portland April 12th), or the LA Lakers (April 10th), every game this month has implications for the other team. Portland will not get an easy night until the 2013-14 preseason, that a couple of their starters (and best players) are likely to be sidelined for the remainder of this season won’t make anything any easier.

Blazers Starting 5: PG Damian Lillard, SG Wesley Matthews, SF Victor Claver, PF J.J. Hickson, C Meyers Leonard

Grizzlies Starting 5: PG Mike Conley, SG Tony Allen, SF Tayshaun Prince, PF Zach Randolph, C Marc Gasol

On their very best nights, Portland can compete with the Memphis Grizzlies. They’ve beaten them once (on the road no less), and played them close on two other recent occasions. The match-ups favor the Grizzlies, almost across the board, but the Blazers have played this team very well all season.

Throw that out the window. The Zach Randolph/LaMarcus Aldridge one-on-one is up there with the best in the league. Nicolas Batum versus Tayshaun Prince is a very exciting match-up too. With both of those match-ups off the board for Portland, Memphis has a distinct advantage. Add to that the Marc Gasol pasting Meyers Leonard will probably take and that J.J. Hickson’s worst attributes on both ends of the court will be exposed by Z-Bo, and as I said, it’s bleak for the Blazers.

Portland’s best opportunities will come from the back court. Damian Lillard will have to score a lot of points (something he can do), and Wesley Matthews will have to shoot the lights out (something he can do too) if the Blazers are going to have a chance Wednesday night. Mike Conley torched Portland last time these two teams played, but Tony Allen isn’t much of an offensive threat. The Blazers will have to take advantage of any edge they can get at the guard positions.

The real problem, of course, will be Portland’s bench. Pulling Victor Claver and Meyers Leonard into the starting lineup greatly limits the Blazers already limited bench. Will Barton might see minutes (which isn’t a bad thing really), so might Luke Babbitt or Nolan Smith. Barton needs the minutes, even if it comes at the expense of the game’s outcome. Luke Babbitt and Nolan Smith, though, are probably done as Blazers and have very little to add as far as development for next season is concerned.

What to Watch For

• Damian Lillard. Damian just broke the record for most three pointers made in a season by a rookie. He’s played remarkably well and consistently down the stretch even as his team is losing. His frustration level seems to be going up though. Damian wants to win, finishing the season with 13 straight losses (which is very possible) might tarnish his sterling rookie season just a tiny bit. We haven’t seen Lillard take over a game from start to finish yet this season. The Grizzlies are not exactly the type of team Damian can beat by himself, and I’m not sure if he should even try. What would be nice to see, though, is Dame putting his stamp on Wednesday’s game from the start. I know he wants to. Lillard has eight games left to prove that he can lead the Blazers all by himself. I think he can do it.
• Shooting and taking care of the ball. Portland lost to the Jazz in Utah on Monday while shooting 58% from the field and giving up 54% shooting from the field. The difference was that the Blazers turned the ball over 16 times and Utah coughed it up only six times. If Portland can limit the turnovers and keep their shooting percentages relatively high, they could stay in this game for awhile.
• Protecting the paint. Keeping opponents from scoring around the hoop has been very tough for the Blazers as of late. Utah scored at will inside, Memphis will probably be able to do the same. If Meyers Leonard can push Marc Gasol out to the elbow and make him shoot jumpers, and if J.J. Hickson can limit the number of second-chance points Zach Randolph gets, anything is possible. That being said, Gasol is an All-Star and Meyers is a rookie whose most obvious deficiencies are on the defensive end, and Zach Randolph has made himself an All-NBA talent by capitalizing on the failures of lazy rebounders and bad defenders. Hickson’s not really a lazy rebounder, but he struggles to rebound in traffic and has a tendency to not block out. We all know about J.J.’s problems with man-to-man defending. Gasol and Randolph will set the tone for this game. As the Grizzly bigs go, so to will go Memphis. My guess is they and their team go well on Wednesday night.

@mikeacker | @ripcityproject | mike.acker1@gmail.com

March 12, 2013; Portland, OR, USA; Portland Trail Blazers point guard Damian Lillard (0) drives to the basket on Memphis Grizzlies center Marc Gasol (33) during the fourth quarter of the game at the Rose Garden. Memphis won the game 102-97. Mandatory Credit: Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports

There are only 10 home games left in 2012-13. Blazers’ head coach Terry Stotts, when asked after Portland’s loss on Wednesday to the Memphis Grizzlies, if it’s time to admit that the season, as far as the playoffs is concerned, is over, he responded by saying he, his players, and his staff are still taking it “one game at a time.”

The sentiment is good. The head coach of a middling team on the rebuild giving up on a season that was never really supposed to go anywhere sends the wrong message. The sad thing, though, and something that doesn’t really get to be talked about since the Blazers hit the skids a little bit through a very difficult second half, is that this team is actually pretty good. We don’t get to enjoy the successes, and there are many, when they come in losses.

Because the Grizzlies are one of the top teams in the Western Conference, and because Portland only has three more games this season against teams with below .500 records, I’m going to buck the trend here a little bit. Instead of looking at some the negative aspects of Wednesday’s game (things such as being totally unable to stop Mike Conley and Nicolas Batum checking out on the offensive end) that tilted it in the favor of Memphis, I’m going to take this opportunity to highlight some of the things Portland did well.

It’s stands to reason that after a tough loss, with more tough losses looming and the off-season fast approaching, that we’d get all cynical and focus only on the negative. I’m counseling against it. Sure this season is over, but there’s good stuff coming, and some stuff that went down Wednesday should back up that theory.

Starting with Meyers Leonard.

Leonard missed nearly a month the first time he sprained his ankle in 2012-13. This most recent time, he missed only a single game. Meyers wasn’t on fire Wednesday, he missed a couple of long jumpers that weren’t exactly ill-advised but didn’t look super great, but he was moving around just fine. Leonard played 17 minutes and went 3-of-6 from the field. His makes and misses were balanced, two makes one miss instead two misses one make outside, and his fouling was basically kept in check. Meyers struggled against Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, but so does everybody else in the NBA.

The future for Meyers is a little uncertain, especially if Neil Olshey uses the bulk of Portland’s cap space to land a marquee center (Al Jefferson maybe), but if Leonard can keep his minutes average at or around 20 for the remaining regular season games and if he can continue to score inside he’ll carve himself a spot on this roster.

Moving on from Meyers Leonard to Eric Maynor.

It’s hard to overstate the long-term impact adding Eric Maynor has had on Portland’s roster. The Blazers’ offensive efficiency is up, the second unit is no longer a black hole, and Damian Lillard can play off the ball a little, maximizing his prodigious catch-and-shoot talent.

Maynor hasn’t taken long to find his groove with Portland. Through eight games, the Blazers’ first real back-up point guard is averaging 22 minutes, eight points, and five assists a night, and he still hasn’t really had the time needed to master Portland’s offense. A summer to continue his return to game shape, and a camp and pre-season to iron out the kinks, and Maynor will be really ready to go.

And finally, how the Blazers closed out Wednesday’s game.

This is kind of a two-part thing. First, Portland closed Wednesday’s game, which was basically over with a couple of minutes to play, by attacking the rim and getting either quick hoops or trips to the line.

Two possession games with under a minute to play are a tough nut to crack. NBA players are usually better than average free throw shooters (or at least NBA teams have enough good free throw shooters on their roster to put guys on the floor who aren’t going to miss), and even though the 24-second shot clock means the team with the lead can’t just hold the ball starting at the two-minute mark, using the clock to force possessions and try to get stops is iffy at best.

Down four with 45 seconds left, you can’t let your opponent burn 24 seconds hoping they don’t score at the buzzer (or worse miss a shot and then get an offensive rebound). The trailing team has to foul, and to maximize the impact of fouling late in games, that trailing team also has to find a way to get scores without letting much time run off the clock.

Wednesday, Portland was able to score 12 points in the final 41.3 seconds. Memphis scored 10 points in the same time period, but they were leading, and all but two of their points came at the line. The Grizzlies earned their win Wednesday by not chocking, but the Blazers did all they could to put the pressure on.

That only five of Portland’s last 12 points didn’t come on free throws also shows that the Blazers, though the game was out of hand, were set on attacking the rim to close the gap. Relying on bombing threes to race back into a game can be fun when it works, but it doesn’t work all that often. Getting free points with the clock stopped is a much better tactic. That Stotts has his team playing smart late against a strong team, giving themselves a chance in one or two free throws didn’t fall, bodes well for the future.

The other important thing to take away from Portland’s closing run was personnel. The Blazers finished Wednesday night with Lillard, Maynor, Wesley Matthews, Nicolas Batum, and LaMarcus Aldridge on the floor. That’s a scoring line-up. That’s the line-up that blew San Antonio out of the water. Those five allow Portland to push the pace, and with two distributors and three shooters on the floor, the lanes are open for drives and the perimeter is uncovered for threes. There are worse ways to close a game.

So those are my positive takeaways from Wednesday night. They can be stretched out to cover the season if you want, or they can be localized to just this last game.

The Blazers are stuck on 29 wins right now. One more win, and Portland has reached the lower limit of my season win-total projection. That win could come this week (Detroit comes through on Saturday and is the second to last team with a sub .500 record to play in the Rose Garden).

If the Blazers hit 30 wins, we should really celebrate. Things have been up and down for Portland in 2012-13, but at the end of the day everything could be a lot worse for this team than losing by five to a team that has a better than decent shot at the Western Conference Finals.

Raymond Felton returns to Portland with the Knicks on Thursday.

Box Score

Standings

@mikeacker | @ripcityproject | mike.acker1@gmail.com

March 12, 2013; Portland, OR, USA; Portland Trail Blazers power forward LaMarcus Aldridge (12) goes up to try and block the shot of Memphis Grizzlies power forward Zach Randolph (50) during the fourth quarter of the game at the Rose Garden. Memphis won the game 102-97. Mandatory Credit: Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports

Mar 6, 2013; Memphis, TN, USA; Memphis Grizzlies center Marc Gasol (33) drives to the basket against Portland Trail Blazers center J.J. Hickson (21) during the game at FedEx Forum. Memphis Grizzlies defeat the Portland Trail Blazers 91-85. Mandatory Credit: Spruce Derden–USA TODAY Sports

It’s March 12th, somehow we’ve blinked and the whole NBA season has gone by. The Blazers have two runs of more than two home games in a row left before we say farewell to 2012-13 and start putting together mocks for the 2013 draft and casting about for narratives of the future.

The first of those two home stands begins tonight against the Memphis Grizzlies, a team with a trajectory from the bottom of the Western Conference to very near the top that Portland should try to emulate. Memphis is a game up on the Denver Nuggets for the fourth seed (and home court advantage in the first round) in the West and a game back of the L.A. Clippers for the third seed.

One and two are all but locked up by the Spurs and Thunder, but that doesn’t mean the West is kind of wide open. If Memphis holds on to the four seed and avoids meeting Denver in Denver to start the playoffs, or climbs to the three seed, skipping the Nuggets entirely and going head-up with the Golden State Warriors in Round One and squaring off with San Antonio in the conference semi-finals, the Grizzlies could find themselves in the Conference Finals and nobody would bat an eye.

This is the same Memphis team that made the playoffs for the first time in four seasons in 2010-11 as an eight seed. Portland may will miss the playoffs this season, but if they’re in the mix for 2013-14, there’s no reason to believe that like the Grizz, the Blazers have a legit shot at the conference finals two seasons after that.

Blazers Starting 5: PG Damian Lillard, SG Wesley Matthews, SF Nicolas Batum, PF LaMarcus Aldridge, C J.J. Hickson

Grizzlies Starting 5: PG Mike Conley, SG Tony Allen, SF Tayshaun Prince, PF Ed Davis, C Marc Gasol

This is the second time in two weeks that Portland and Memphis have played. These two teams play for the fourth and final time in two more weeks. That the Blazers will be facing the same team two times in short succession will give head coach Terry Stotts an opportunity, of sorts, to simulate the playoffs.

Winning a seven-game series is about which coach and which team adjusts first. Tuesday’s game will turn on whether or not Portland can figure out a way to avoid the pitfalls that led to their loss less than a week ago in Memphis, a loss that came after the Blazers squandered an early double-digit lead.

Portland will avoid the come-back trap against the Grizzlies on Tuesday if they can play an up and down style of offensive game, the kind of game they played against San Antonio and failed to play against the Hornets in New Orleans.

Match-up wise, the Blazers focus needs to be on wing play. Last Wednesday, Nicolas Batum shot 4-of-10 from the field, slightly better than Wesley Matthews’ 4-of-11. For Portland to beat the Grizzlies for a second time in 2012-13, those shooting numbers have to go up.

LaMarcus Aldridge needs to improve his shooting too. The difference between the impact LA will have on Tuesday’s game as compared to the impact Matthews and Batum can have on the game is that Aldridge can have a greater impact on the game on the defensive end. Marc Gasol will be the Grizzlies primary offensive weapon. Last Wednesday Gasol led all scorers with 23. If LA can get that scoring number down (under 20 would be best) Portland can win regardless of how Aldridge plays on offense.

What to Watch for

• Meyers Leonard. Meyers is reported to be back. His sprained ankle (sustained in San Antonio) will end up keeping him out only one game. His last ankle sprain kept him out significantly longer and set his development back by about a month maybe more. Leonard has played his best ball as of late, hopefully  this recent injury won’t negate any of the good we’ve seen recently. Having somebody who can score easily inside with the second unit is about the most important thing for the Blazers right now.
• Momentum. Portland has been able to cash in on momentum from time to time this season (home wins against the Heat and Celtics stand out in my mind), but they’ve also failed to cash in on momentum just as often, maybe even more often. Sunday evening in New Orleans, the Blazers were unable to build on an early lead or consolidate big offensive possessions with big defensive stops down the stretch. Some of that is based on momentum. If Portland can find a way to get a lead early or get hot and can carry that through to defensive stops, extended runs, or double digit advantages, they can beat the Grizzlies. The opposite is true too. If the Blazers are unable to take advantage of their opportunities and thus fail to build or leverage some momentum, this game goes to Memphis.
• Defense and rebounding. Ryan Anderson sunk the Blazers with a lay-up and a free throw on NOLA’s final possession. But he really sunk Portland on the Hornets’ second to last possession, a possession kept alive by an Anthony Davis offensive rebound. Fewer offensive rebounds, more completed defensive possessions, those two things (which are really the same thing) will be the difference maker for the Blazers on Tuesday.

@mikeacker | @ripcityproject | mike.acker1@gmail.com