Wesley Matthews provided a ton of offense, but couldn't push Portland over the top in Phoenix. Photo courtesy of the AP.

Here’s the thing, taken individually each of Portland’s last three losses can be explained away. Miami is one of the best teams in the league; LeBron is a beast and can kill not just teams but entire American cities all by himself. New York is a team that can get hot, and when it does can play with the best teams league wide. Phoenix is struggling, but still, nobody wants to be beaten four straight times in a single season. What I’m saying is this: on a game-by-game basis, when looking at the last three nights, the Blazers aren’t struggling. It’s when you look at the collective, or the big picture, that you see the problem.

Portland scrapped, played well, and earned its way back to .500, then over that mark in the end of December and in the first few weeks of this new year. However, dropping three straight has put the Blazers right back at even. With one game to go before the official halfway line, the Blazers are 20-20. Although they’re still in the playoff picture, it’s hard not to look at that record as see that somewhere there’s a problem.

To me, the problem was pretty clear Friday night in Phoenix against the Suns. Portland can not compete with its second unit every night. In the loss to New York, it was the lack of offense from a host of starters that sunk Portland. Wesley Matthews, Nicolas Batum, and Andre Miller turned in below average games on Tuesday at the Rose Garden. Friday each of those players stepped up, but it was the bench that fell short. Minus the point guard position, Andre is a top flight point guard, maybe even one of the best of his generation, but he is no Steve Nash, Portland had the advantage at every position in the starting five. Vince Carter is not half man half amazing anymore, and a poor man’s LaMarcus Aldridge, Channing Frye, pales in comparison to the real McCoy.

That being said, Portland didn’t have an answer for Jared Dudley, Marcin Gortat, Hakim Warrick, and Goran Dragic. Only Dudley reached double figures in scoring, but all of Phoenix’s bench players contributed big buckets in the second half. It wasn’t just that the Blazers’ subs couldn’t stop the Phoenix subs. Portland’s second unit also couldn’t score. Patty Mills contributed eight points, but almost all of those came during his first shift. Rudy Fernandez was reluctant to shoot all night, finishing 1-of-6 from the field, 0-of-2 from deep, for only three points. Dante Cunningham wasn’t much better, adding only four points. The Phoenix bench outscored the Portland bench 32-to-15, the difference in the game and then some.

The question going forward is what can Portland do about its depth. Unfortunately the answer is not much. The Blazers should be reluctant to give up any major pieces in order to find a role player to fill the secondary scoring gap, and the players Portland does have on the bench don’t make for very good trade bait. One thing that is a little frustrating is that Portland now has three players on the end of the bench that don’t even get a wiff of the court. Armon Johnson has played no meaningful minutes, save for some when Andre was serving his one-game suspension, since Patty Mills took over the second string point guard position, Sean Marks is now behind Joel Przybilla at the center position meaning his minutes are nil, and Luke Babbitt hasn’t quite found out what he can even do while on the court. I’m no GM, but those are three spots that could be taken by players that might be able to come in to a game and provide something.

Friday night wasn’t all bad, not by a long shot. Portland led most of the way, even though the game was played almost entirely at a pace and of a style that greatly favored the home team. Phoenix plays fast and loose, and most of the evening the game could best be described as controlled chaos. The Suns, Steve Nash especially, thrive in that environment. Portland often flails, flounders, and then loses. Although the Blazers did in fact end up losing, they managed throughout the game to stave off many of Phoenix’s runs. A sign that when things aren’t going their way they can still be effective.

While Portland’s bench deals with its consistency issues, the starting unit continues to play at a high level. Wesley Matthews, who has struggled as of late, was a high point on offense. Questionable before tip, and clearly favoring an injured ankle, Wesley mixed short and long jumpers on his way to a team-high 26 points. LaMarcus Aldridge added 25 points, Nicolas Batum scored 18 points, and Andre Miller was the fourth Blazer in double figures with 19. Andre had a strong stretch late in game where he was the only Portland player that was clicking on offense, and LA showed early in the game that he hasn’t completely forgotten about his jump shot.

January is going to be a favorable month for the Blazers, with a lot of home games, and a lot of match-ups with inferior teams. For all intents and purposes, the Suns are worse than the Blazers. A win in Phoenix would have set the tone for the rest of the month. A loss is a setback, as all losses are. The Blazers get a chance to get over this most recent loss Saturday at home against the New Jersey Nets. Along with having a chance for a bounce-back, streak-ending win, Portland has a chance to begin to exorcise the demons of their first 0-and-4 road trip. More importantly they get the chance to have a winning first half of the season. 21-20 is not a great record at the halfway point, but more and more 2010-11 is looking like the season of small victories. In that context, a winning record through 41 games takes on a whole new level of significance.

Just a couple quick thoughts:

• Steve Nash has been the center of a small storm of trade rumors, down a class or two from the hurricane of speculation following Carmelo Anthony. Nash is not at the level he once was, but can still put together a good game every once and awhile. Friday Nash was clutch, putting Phoenix over the top at the end of the evening. Nash’s line: 23 points, 13 assists, 6 rebounds, and only 3 turnovers.
• This was my first time seeing Phoenix play since swapping Jason Richardson and Hedo Turkoglu with the Magic for Marcin Gortat and Vince Carter. I know Earl Clark and Mickael Pietrus were also part of that deal, but Pietrus didn’t play too much Friday night, and Clark was never really part of the Suns rotation. Carter is getting old, but still has a ton of skill. Marcin Gortat is a big body, and although he took some of Hakim Warrick’s minutes he isn’t quite a replacement for Amar’e Stoudemire. Phoenix is likely going to be left out of the playoffs, so who knows what this team will look like a season from now. My guess is some of the new faces will be new faces somewhere else whenever the NBA resumes following 2010-11.
• During the course of the broadcast, Mike Rice made an important observation about Grant Hill, as per his history with injuries and his resurgence late in his career. It’s been said many times that players can return from injuries, and Hill is often trotted out as the prime example. With Brandon Roy being scheduled for surgery on both of his knees, it is unlikely he’ll play this season or ever return to his All-Star form. It’s nice to know, though, that there is always a chance Roy will be the Grant Hill of his generation of players. Remember Hill was once an All-Star too.
• One of the things I love about the NBA is checking out the former players that are now assistant coaches, specifically to get a read on how far they’ve fallen off from their playing physique. Phoenix has two examples that embody the extremes. “Thunder Dan” Majerle looks like he could still play at 45. Former Chicago Bulls center Bill Cartwright not so much. To Cartwright’s credit he is 53, and he is a three-time NBA Champion.

Box Score

Standings

Twitter: @mikeacker | @ripcityproject

Look at my knee, now back at my knee, now back at your knee. Your knee isn't my knee. My knee is full of win, even when it's not full of meniscus. (Source: Yardbarker.com)

In the words of the Moonwalker, this is it.

Alright, I’m sure you’re all familiar with the concept of the elimination game, so I won’t inundate you with an end of the season shpeel. Either the Blazers win or we’re all writing “What’s Next” features. That’s the format, and it’s the reason why this should be the most watched, and most heavily scrutinized Blazer game since, well, the Dallas series in 2003.

This deep into a series, there aren’t a ton of new adjustments either coach can make. Each guy has a marble bag full of moves and countermoves that they know have the chance to work to varying degrees of effectiveness, and it’s on them to use them at the appropriate times. Do the Suns send doubles at LaMarcus Aldridge on the catch or on the dribble, from the top or from the baseline, do they double Brandon Roy at all and when do they shift into a zone or put Grant Hill on Andre Miller? Likewise, how long does Nate keep the starting lineup out there, when does he put Nic Batum on Steve Nash with the sore shoulder, how long can he stay away from calling isolations for Roy, how much of a leash does Jerryd Bayless get and is he going to sacrifice some running opportunities to cultivate possessions?

Think of it like a collector card game. Everyone has a balanced deck and more often than not, the winner will be determined by a combination of luck and their use of timing. Use your fireball too early, it’s nothing more than a chink in the armor, but use it at the right time and something is probably getting thrown at you.

Luck will of course have something to do with it. Aldridge and Marcus Camby could get whistled for fouls they haven’t been so far in this series, and it’s up to McMillan to leave them in or find a suitable replacement. Andre Miller could hit a wide-open three, or he couldn’t. Aldridge could shoot over 50 percent on 17-foot jumpers when Roy or Miller draws the defense, or he couldn’t. Batum could play 35 minutes with nary a problem, or Amar’e Stoudemire could give him a dirty look and the shoulder detonates.

But listen to Doc Brown, there’s no fate, or luck, but what the Blazers make for themselves. If the Blazers don’t box out and don’t rotate to the weakside corner like they did in Game 5, no amount of luck and bounces is going to matter. They’ll be crushed, again. Wins in games like this don’t just come to you because you’re shooting well or because your opponent isn’t. They come because you’re working for the absolute best shots for yourself and the absolute worst shots for your opponent. They come because you win possession by possession and don’t fall in love with jumpers just because you made a bunch in a row.

Mostly, this win, just like this entire series, will be on LaMarcus Aldridge. The scoring won’t matter so much as his decision making — not to mention his position earning — in the post, moving his feet on Amar’e, being fluid between the paint and the arc with Frye, managing switch situations again onto Nash and, above all, getting plum mad dog mean on the boards. He doesn’t have to do anything we know he isn’t capable of, but he’s got to use his body and set the tone for the Martell’s and Rudy’s and Dante’s who will, at some point, need to make some sort of non-scoring impact in lessened minutes.

Enjoy this, but don’t use the house-money card. There’s no reason this game shouldn’t be competitive, and if you’ve watched the Blazers enough since December, there’s no reason to expect the Blazers not to make a serious push at this.

And yes, I know that was Sarah Connor earlier, just seeing if you were paying attention or working diligently on a Steve Nash voodoo doll.

"So what's the big deal, I mastered the art of the tiny fist pump in 8 days? Oh you're more impressed by the knee thing. Makes sense I guess." (Source: YardBarker.com)

There’s a lot on the line tonight. The story will be which team comes out and plays like it.

It’s amazing how much simpler things get when you reach a Game 5. I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again: Game 5′s are just like booty calls. Why? Because you know exactly what you’re going to get out of them.

By Game 5, both teams know each other. The majority of the questions have been answered. Generally speaking, the key adjustments have been made. And if they haven’t…you’re probably not in the best of positions to compete in the series. Both teams know what to expect from each other. By Game 5, neither team cares what the others middle name is, it’s just time to throw down. This is where the cliches start kicking in: it’s about who wants it more. About which team can impose their will on the other. I’ll stop there.

Phoenix, obviously will be looking to be more aggressive than they were on Saturday. From reading and hearing the comments from the Suns, they are coming in with a high level of confidence. Honestly at this point, it’s almost bordering on a little bit of arrogance. A little bit of ‘If we do what we do they can’t beat us’ type feel. Despite it being a 2-2 series, they feel as if the reason they have lost is because they missed shots. And they have said it multiple times. One of Phoenix’s main objectives for tonight is improving offensively. You hold a team like Phoenix to 87 points and you expect them to want to rectify that.

(Sidenote, I like how this becoming a real playoff series. In my eyes, as a fan, it’s not a playoff series until guys from the other team start bugging you. That started happening for me in Game 4. Clearly Amare has embraced the role of lead villain, but the rest of the Suns are starting to wear on my nerves. Especially that damn Robin Lopez…and he’s not even playing! Come on Jarron Collins scoring doesn’t bug you?!?! Liars.)

A major key coming into this one is Portland’s ability to stop Phoenix’s transition game. Last night on TNT they put up a great stat showing Phoenix’s fast-break points and how it’s correlated to winning. In Games 1 and 4 they only scored 4 fast break points, both games they lost. In Games 2 and 3 they recorded double-digits in fast break points, both games they won. Phoenix is a completely different team when they can score in transition and Portland has got to take care of that from the start.

On the flip side, for Portland they have to continue to find ways to get offensive rebounds. Now that’s a slippery slope because you can’t just recklessly crash the boards. If you do and you don’t get it Phoenix is scoring on you on the other end. I’ll take more tapouts from Marcus Camby and Juwan Howard please.

Another key to this one is how good of a start the Blazers get off too. It’s been simple, when Portland gets off to a good start in this series they are right there all game. When they don’t they get run off the court. Phoenix and their crowd realize the importance of this game and there should be a ton of energy coming from the home team. The Blazers have to be ready to match that to start and go from there. If not, as we’ve seen before, things could get ugly.

If Portland wants a victory, they really need to know where Jason Richardson is at all times. We all know what Nash and Amare can do when they get rolling. But the key to the Suns really playing well is Richardson. On the series, he’s averaging 25 points a game, shooting 54% from the field and 51% from behind the arc. In this series he’s proven that he is an impact player. In Phoenix’s two losses he’s shot 10-for-28 from the field (35.7%) and 4-for-14 from behind the arc (28.5%). If he’s able to knock down shots, Portland will be in trouble. If he’s not they have a chance.

Offensively, Portland has to keep executing. A major key to getting off to a good start is finding ways to put the ball in the basket early. One of the underrated stories about Game 4 was Portland’s balance offensively. Seven players scored 8 or more points and five were in double figures. That’s big, because if Portland can score that in itself helps stunt Phoenix’s transition game. I’m interested to see how Phoenix play LaMarcus Aldridge tonight. I’m also interested to see how Andre Miller responds in Game 2 with Roy back. The one thing about Roy’s return is for the first time it really spread out Phoenix’s defense. Roy’s return has made life easier on everyone else, let’s see what Phoenix has up their sleeve tonight.

My favorite part about this game? Almost any result is realistic. I don’t know about you but I can imagine Portland pulling a close one out about as much as I can imagine them losing by 27. There’s a lot on the line here. The loser gets put on the brink of elimination. Phoenix recognizes the importance of this game and I know they do not want to go to Portland down 3-2. A lot of the pressure coming into this one lies on their shoulders. Portland on the other hand is going to have to find a way to get themselves ready to play. They won’t have the Rose Garden crowd, they won’t have the fuel of two embarrassing blowouts, they won’t have Brandon Roy’s comeback. They have to do whatever it takes to be ready for this one.

I think the good thing about this series is generally speaking you can tell how it’s going to end up relatively quick. Portland sticks around in the first quarter, you know it’s a game. They don’t…you know the rest. Which means if Portland doesn’t show up in the desert, I’ll be watching Pamela Anderson on Dancing With The Stars a little earlier than I had wanted.